Chapter Seventy-Five: It's Not a Trap
ASEAN, that is, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
Its member states are Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Singapore, Brunei, Vietnam, Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia.
Its predecessor was the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which was founded in Bangkok on 31 July 1961 by Malaya, the Philippines and Thailand.
In the eyes of later generations, it is difficult for this ASEAN to have a sense of existence.
It may be thought that all of them are some countries that do not enter the stream.
Combined, these countries are probably not as thick as China's arm, let alone wrestling with the United States.
With the exception of Singapore, ASEAN's member states are all poor jingles.
But this was not the case, at least not in the nineties.
The "Four Little Tigers" led by Thailand and Indonesia were able to go hand in hand with the four tigers in Hong Kong and South Korea, which shows their economic status at that time.
Under the rapid economic rise, ASEAN has a faint tendency to restrain the United States from controlling the Asian market.
Once the ASEAN member states are fully integrated economically and politically, it is likely to weaken America's influence around the world.
The fact that the United States has been able to become the number one power is fundamentally dependent on the absolute position of the US dollar.
More than 90 percent of global trade settlements are in US dollars.
So from both a political and economic perspective, the United States would not want to see another increase in the number of ASEAN members.
The international circulation value of currency is reflected in a country's comprehensive national strength.
Conversely, when a country's national power is weakened, the value of its currency is weakened.
There is a mutual influence in the middle.
If ASEAN expands to some extent and plays with the East dollar, the Southeast dollar or something, it could cause serious damage to the dollar.
The United States will never agree to this.
In 1996, ASEAN already had eight member states.
In addition, there are three other countries to study – Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia and Papua New Guinea.
Geographically, Myanmar extends to the northwest of Thailand.
Once Myanmar joins ASEAN's political economy, there will be no suspense that Laos and Cambodia will join.
Under the stakes, no country wants to have an additional large economy.
Even the United States, the number one power, does not want such a huge competitor to emerge out of thin air.
It is even less desirable that this economic association may threaten the position of the dollar.
In this case, the United States will certainly stir up trouble with ASEAN's absorption of Myanmar.
From a perspective outside of history, Zhao Jiangchuan naturally knows the relationship between ASEAN and the subsequent economic crisis.
It also knows that ASEAN will not give in to the pressure of the United States.
But he also knows what this means for international capital.
Even as a hanger, he had to admit one thing.
In this era, Soros's accumulation, if you don't count him, can already be called the first capital giant crocodile at that time.
This has been verified by the market since Soros led the Quantum Fund to attack the pound.
Whether it is politics or economics, in the chessboard, there is no one who can leave Soros around.
If there is anyone who can overpower Soros at the moment, I am afraid that it is Robinson of Tiger Fund.
But Robinson, a feline, is used to hunting and waiting for an opportunity, and he will never put himself in front of the stage.
Soros is different, what he is best at is to lead the general trend.
Capital has reached a certain point where it has long ceased to be a zero-sum trading game.
It involves political, economic, military and other factors.
It is not an exaggeration to say that it is a war.
Therefore, financial warfare and military confrontation are similar in many ways.
Planning, building momentum, to seize the opportunity.
And what Soros is best at is attacking his heart first, and then attacking his ambition.
Finally, carry the general momentum for the final siege.
At ASEAN, this opportunity is undoubtedly the best time to stir up Southeast Asia.
With the eyes of Soros's contemporary masters, it is impossible not to see this.
……
Quantum Fund Headquarters.
After analyzing that the economies of Southeast Asian countries have come to an end, Soros no longer has any struggle in his eyes.
His dual personality is completely suppressed by the cold side.
At this time, Soros no longer remembers the smoke of the ruined homeland.
There was a cold light flashing in his eyes, which were completely incompatible with his age.
Now he is the financial giant that European countries fear.
Zhao Jiangchuan's Jushi Capital was able to receive the news that ASEAN would absorb Myanmar to join, and how could it not receive this news with the quantum fund's many years of operation.
Without any hesitation, Soros categorically decided to side with the United States.
In the eyes of this financial giant, the foundation of Southeast Asia is still too shallow, and vainly trying to expand ASEAN's influence and restrain the United States is simply the way to die.
The moment ASEAN decided to expand its influence, it doomed the economies of Southeast Asian countries to collapse prematurely.
December 6, 1996.
When Soros attended an economic summit in Europe, he strongly criticized the Burmese government's human rights abuses.
Soros said that the dangers of drugs are well known.
More than 400,000 people die each year due to drug use, and more than 10 million families are torn apart by drugs.
But the Burmese government has refused to send the drug lord Khun Sah to justice.
This is an injustice to drug victims, a violation of human rights, and an evil act against humanity.
Soros called on not to invest in Myanmar, which is a hell where the devil lives, and not to travel to Myanmar, which is to help deliver nutrition to this evil country.
Soros believes that the Myanmar junta refuses to hand over power to the people and that everything is just for their selfish interests.
Every kyat is stained with the blood of drug addicts.
It's dirty, sinful, disgusting, money that shouldn't be in the world.
What a man Soros is.
He has a huge influence on Wall Street investment banks and even in the world's financial circles.
A large part of Alan Greenspan's influence is due to his fact that he is the chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Soros can be compared to Allen in the financial world, but he has made a name for himself step by step.
It was a test of blood and lessons again and again.
So......
After Soros spoke, the results were immediate.
The Kyats suffered a huge sell-off in the circulation market, and the kyats depreciated by 5% on the same day.
The name of a man, the shadow of a tree.
In the name of Soros, just a few words can devalue a country's currency by five percent.
Although a large factor in this is the economic sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union on Myanmar, Soros's influence in the financial world can be seen.
ASEAN will admit Myanmar to join, Europe and the United States will jointly impose economic sanctions on Myanmar, and the Myanmar dollar will depreciate sharply......
This series of news has attracted the attention of the whole world to Southeast Asia.
The purpose of the Quantum Fund has been achieved, but Soros is also dumbfounded.
At a time when Southeast Asian countries are preoccupied with the ASEAN issue, the world's political and economic attention is focused on Myanmar.
There was a sudden and widespread movement in the Thai baht.
December 7th.
Soros had just finished his speech in Europe when there was a sudden surge of sell-offs in the baht forward market.
In the spot market, more than one billion dollars were also smashed.
Three days later, the Thai baht forward was smashed from 1 to 23 to 1 to 26.
Soros has a feeling of confusion, Tiger Fund also has a feeling of confusion, and those international capitals that have not yet had time to establish short positions have a feeling of confusion.
The ones who vomited the most blood were Soros and Robinson.
They don't have enough baht in their hands yet, and they don't even have a position to sell in the forward contract.
But the special Thai baht was directly.
The sudden change of the Thai Baht caused all the funds that were preparing to attack the Thai Baht to be thrown into chaos.
Everyone knows that Soros's attack on Myanmar is not about drunkards.
These funds are waiting for the Quantum Fund to be assembled and the horn of the attack on the Thai baht will be sounded.
But the Quantum Fund hasn't started yet, and they haven't come before they can prepare, but the Thai Baht has been killed.
In the early days of testing, international capital has already tested the bottom line of the Bank of Thailand.
The forward market price of 25 is the maximum flexibility under the fixed exchange rate of the Thai baht.
If this position is lost, it means that the Bank of Thailand is no longer in control.
Now, however, the baht is bombarded with money that has come out of nowhere to 1:26.
This......
The Thai baht is finished.
This is the voice of all international capital.
When the Thai baht fell to 26, experienced forex traders had this idea almost instinctively.
What should I do in this case?
If it is an ordinary investor who will not have an impact on the market price, this situation must be waiting for the rebound before shorting.
But professional traders are different.
Professional traders have a high level of market sensitivity and a wealth of trading experience.
They know what it means to go with the flow.
The huge black candlestick in the Thai baht forward market represents the generation of a bearish trend.
A black candlestick pierced multiple bullish candlesticks and swept through all the moving averages below.
The technical break also means that the Bank of Thailand has lost its defensive line against the Thai baht.
In this trend, professional traders of course choose to take advantage of the opportunity to short sell to make huge profits.
Thereupon......
In the world's four major foreign exchange futures markets, the open interest in baht-related contracts began to increase wildly.
In the Thai spot market, there is a huge sell-off.
Bangkok, Thailand.
The phones of the major commercial banks are ringing non-stop, and almost all of them are calls that require short-term loans in Thai baht.
When an operator hangs up a call, another call is received.
Borrow Thai baht.
One week, one week.
Amounts ranging from a few million to tens of millions of dollars.
International capital, large and small, in the long-term technological breakthrough of the Thai baht, like a bunch of piranhas smelling of blood, all bee chrysalis entered the Thai baht market, wanting to devour enough flesh and blood in the value of the Thai baht.
Singapore, Financial Trading Centre.
Robinson's tiger-like eyes showed a rare doubt.
He didn't know why the baht was suddenly smashed by someone.
It stands to reason that with the Bank of Thailand's foreign exchange reserves of more than 30 billion, the Bank of Thailand should be able to resist any attack from any side.
Three gangs of a hero.
Ordinary people will have three or two friends, not to mention Thailand, which has a good reputation.
Economically, Thailand and Singapore have always been on good terms.
In Tiger Fund's earlier tentative attack on the baht, the Singapore Monetary Authority will help the Bank of Thailand to launch a defensive counterattack against the baht.
In those few cases, although the Tiger Fund did not break its bones, it still lost tens of thousands of dollars.
But this time, the Thai baht was smashed down after only one day.
Could it be that the Bank of Thailand has always been a foreign powerhouse in the past?
Or have we tried to deplete the Bank of Thailand's reserves?
Robinson was a little unsure.
Thailand has $38 billion in foreign exchange reserves.
However, this figure does not deduct the US dollar assets and external liabilities held by the Bank of Thailand.
If you subtract this, no one knows exactly how much foreign exchange reserves Thailand has.
Maybe three hundred, maybe two hundred......
After figuring this out, Robinson regretted it.
If he had been the first to launch this attack on the Thai baht, he would have already made a huge profit.
But Robinson is very human after all.
He was able to control the world's second largest hedge fund, and he could let the world's largest hedge fund hand over the operation to him, so he naturally had extraordinary willpower.
For the economies of Southeast Asian countries, Robinson is infinitely bearish.
Thai baht is also a breakthrough that he has long confirmed.
Now that there are funds to open the defensive line of the Thai baht, it is absolutely right to take advantage of the victory to pursue.
After making up his mind, Robinson's eyes returned to their former coldness.
Without hesitation, he picked up the phone and dialed the assistant's number.
"Robbie, use the treasury bonds in our hands to borrow four billion baht from major commercial banks...... Well, that's right, the sooner the better......"
……
Quantum Fund Headquarters.
Soros already had dark eyes and the same doubts in his eyes as Robinson had before.
He couldn't figure out what kind of power could blow the baht down in a day.
The Thai baht, behind it is a country. If you add Thailand's allies, it can even be counted as a semi-country.
In terms of interests, Singapore will definitely try its best to help the Thai baht do a good job in every defense.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore is not a fool either.
I guessed with my ass that once the Thai baht was lost, the Thai baht currency crisis would spread to the entire Southeast Asian countries.
With the experience of the collapse of the pound in the first place, it is impossible for these people not to think of this.
But what's going on now?
Could it be that Thailand's foreign exchange reserves are even smaller than we estimated? Thailand's previously announced reserves are all smokescreens?
Involuntarily, Soros had the same idea as Robinson.
This is the only possibility that will explain why the Thai baht was smashed down without holding on for a day under the pressure of the sudden emergence of funds.
The transaction in the spot market can't hide from Soros's eyes.
There is no way to hide more than a billion dollars in transactions every day.
In the eyes of a person like Soros, he may not care about any news, but the transaction of real money can clearly prove one thing.
It's not a trap, at least, it's not very likely.
The real money transaction is not the news of the mouthpiece.
After determining this, Soros had a mixed feeling of wanting to vomit blood.
Like the Tiger Fund, the Quantum Fund has not yet opened a short position on the baht.
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