Chapter Seventy-Six: It's a Pit
For newcomers to the speculative market, there are often many bases for opening a position.
There are those who listen to the news and buy and sell, those who watch the news and buy and sell, and there are those who buy and sell by lot......
After a little more evolution, study various technical indicators to open positions.
What kdJ, Macd golden cross buying, death cross selling, etc......
Or immerse yourself in the fundamentals of the industry as a basis for investment.
A little more high-tech, there is some kind of quantitative trading module, or some kind of intelligent trading software.
The force is very high, and it seems to be very high.
But it didn't help.
The alpha dog, who defeated the national player of Go, was beaten alive in the market and became a waste dog.
It turns out that no matter what kind of tricks a trader uses, the 28 profit and loss rule will never change.
Many people have become green wheat sprout-shaped dishes in the round after round of harvesting in the market.
This makes many people doubt their lives, and they derive various conspiracy theories.
Some people even think that I am afraid that the main force is eyeing the little funds in his hand.
In this regard, those funds that are regarded as the main force, and those institutions that go bankrupt every year, can only shout that the current retail investors are really cunning.
If the harvest is not successful, it will be sun.
Even a government has no absolute chance of winning in a highly complex market.
Every year, countries lose significant amounts because of strategic mistakes.
Historically, there have not been one or two countries that have lost money and gone bankrupt in debt.
This seems to prove that there is no such thing as the right way to trade in the world.
There is no such thing as the right way to invest.
Otherwise, how can a certain company or a certain fund, backed by the state, go bankrupt due to losses?
Whether it is a technical stream, or a fundamental researcher, whether it is a small capital or the so-called main force, there is only one dead end in the end.
Value investors, what they invest in is always worthless in the end.
Technical flow traders, in turn, often die from technology.
All of this shows that the investment market is highly complex.
In this highly complex market, there is simply no value and technology.
However, in this market where there is no value and technology, there are still people who will never decline like evergreens.
Soros.
This financial giant that makes the whole of Europe fear three points is that evergreen tree.
From the day the Quantum Fund was established, there was no defeat.
Soros, who has accumulated a lot of money, led the Quantum Fund to dominate the financial market with an annualized compound interest of more than 30%.
Because, Soros has a pair of eyes that see through the essence.
The market is very simple.
But the human heart is complex, so complex that it is impossible to see the simplest things.
Under the interference of information, in the long-term development of the mode of thinking, people will always complicate simple things.
Because, people are too smart.
Smart people always think about a lot of things, and smart people always use smart ways to solve problems.
It's like a collision of billiards.
Smart people always think about what will happen to the force of the impact and the arc of the reflection from a certain position.
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There's nothing wrong with that.
But the fault is that smart people are always conceited.
When it comes to miscalculations, smart people don't want to admit their mistakes.
A wise man is wise again.
When the calculations are correct, they calculate smarter ways to operate.
Soros is also a smart man.
But he was also a very simple and intelligent man.
As a master speculator, he knows that there are only two directions in the market.
It's either up or down.
If you look in one direction, you just have to believe in yourself like a pig.
As early as two years ago, after countless research and analysis, Soros began to be bearish on the Southeast Asian economy.
He has always been convinced that the economies of these countries will decline, and he is sure that the currencies of these countries will depreciate.
Soros is convinced of this.
Therefore, after determining that the fall of the Thai baht should not be a trap, Soros has a deep sense of grievance.
In a pure market, there are only two outcomes: up and down.
But if there is anything that determines this relationship between the top and bottom, it is only two words.
Trend.
The general trend is like a surging river, which can be unblocked.
Under the general trend, whether it is a country or an individual, it is a drop in the ocean.
Follow the general trend and win the national fortune, and follow the trend and make profits.
Soros is convinced of this.
Thousands of years of records in the history books have long recorded the general trend is inviolable.
Ruble, British Pound, Peso to London Copper ......
All the market results are perfect proof of what it means to be irresistible.
In various analyses, it has long been proved that the economic development of Southeast Asia has reached a bottleneck.
The economic recession in these countries is already unstoppable.
Thailand's fixed exchange rate and highly owned financial market, as well as the fast-growing hollowing out, make the Thai baht inevitably the first to collapse.
ASEAN's motto is that if the Thai baht collapses, the currencies of other countries will inevitably follow suit.
It's like a cog, if one link goes wrong, it will explode.
Therefore, after this is confirmed, Soros will openly criticize Myanmar.
The general trend is indisputable, but there is one more sentence.
The times create heroes, and heroes create the times.
The attack on Myanmar is a campaign that Soros has carefully prepared.
Myanmar, next to Thailand.
Due to their geographical location, the two countries have a very close relationship economically.
As long as Myanmar's currency fails, it will inevitably have an impact on Thailand's economic system.
People always have blind obedience.
If the Kyat's dollar collapses, the Thai currency, which is next to Myanmar, will inevitably be contagion.
This is known as the herd effect.
As one of the giants at the top of the pyramid of this era, Soros's control over the weaknesses of human nature can be said to be unmatched.
As a result, Soros's judgment was correct, and his campaign was successful.
Under his strong criticism, the Kyat dollar suffered a huge sell-off, and in the sharp depreciation of the Burmese dollar, the Thai baht also immediately had a chain reaction.
The result was consistent with Soros's judgment, but it was not the outcome he hoped to see.
Or rather, that's not what he wants to see right now.
Ordinary investors will speculate on the consequences based on their own judgment, and then open positions in advance based on the results of the inference.
But Soros is different.
He knew that he was only a human being, not an omnipotent God.
The results can be recommended based on the trajectory, but the results may not necessarily be consistent with the deduction.
If you want to prove that your deduction is correct, the result is the most powerful explanation.
He needs to wait for the market to verify his judgment before opening a position.
As long as the results are correct, it's never too late to open a position.
This is where Soros is aggrieved.
The collapse of the baht proved that his deduction was correct, and it also proved the success of his campaign.
But the funds that broke the Thai baht were billions of dollars, and he had nothing to do with the quantum fund.
This means that everything he has painstakingly done has made a wedding dress for others.
Someone rushed ahead of him and launched an attack on the baht.
Soros is a human being after all.
worked hard to calculate the layout, but in the end, someone else grabbed the first prize, and everyone was so angry that they vomited blood.
This is a great shame for Soros.
Since the Quantum Fund became famous, which of the general trend of promotion and attack is not dominated by the Quantum Fund.
But now, I don't know who has taken the lead.
This made Soros feel very aggrieved.
Unlike Robinson, a tiger who is used to hunting.
Soros likes the feeling of being in a hurry.
That feeling that a word can decide the life and death of a country makes Soros feel as if he has the authority of God.
In addition, that kind of position can also leave him with a lot of money left when attacking.
In the past, where the Quantum Fund soldiers pointed out, there would be countless funds willing to be the pawns of the flag-waving and shouting.
It's all about fame.
Under the prestige, a single sentence can mobilize thousands of troops.
But now, this authority has been snatched from him.
But there is no way to be aggrieved.
What has happened, no one is powerless to change.
Soros is very human after all.
Once you're sure that things can't be changed, quickly adjust your mindset.
After rubbing his chin a few times, he said to his best man, Stanley Druckenmiller.
"Stanley, find out who did it before us. ”
Druckenmiller, as the number one cadre under Soros, knows Soros's character very well.
Druckenmiller knew that his boss had a lot of grievances this time.
However, Druckenmiller was also curious about who could actually get ahead of the Quantum Fund.
The timing of the unknown funds was too good and too bold.
You know, even the quantum fund does not dare to easily throw billions of dollars to attack the Thai baht.
A country's goods system represents the sovereignty of a country, and no one dares to attack unscrupulously and easily without absolute certainty.
But the market is always full of uncertainties.
No one is absolutely sure that God is Almighty.
Who could it be?
Deeply intrigued, Druckenmiller immediately set about the intelligence agency to start an investigation.
Soon, the results came in.
With the intelligence system mastered by the Quantum Fund, there are very few things that cannot be found in the capital market.
What's more, with billions of dollars in circulation, no matter how clever the tricks are, it is impossible to hide such a large amount of funds.
Jushi Asset Management, an asset management company under Jushi Capital.
After knowing the name, Soros was speechless for a while.
The name Titular Stone Capital has become very famous lately because it was this company that suddenly acquired Standard Chartered Bank.
A long time ago, Soros sent someone to investigate the origin of Boulder Capital.
But unfortunately, apart from some things on the surface, there is nothing of value at all.
Except for the understanding that the company was ostensibly in the hands of a Chinese, there was nothing more rewarding.
In the office, Soros and Druckenmiller were relatively silent.
After a long time, Soros whispered to himself.
"Jushi Capital ......"
"Boss, what should we do now?"
"Stanley, what do you think. ”
"I think that since the current trend of the Thai baht is in line with our judgment, then we should continue with the previous plan. ”
"What do you want to do. ”
"I'm ready to open a $2 billion position. ”
"Stanley, do what you want......"
In terms of employing people, Soros can be said to have impeccable charm.
Back then, he could leave the Quantum Fund for Druckenmiller, and he already had enough trust in Druckenmiller.
Now, he still won't influence any of Druckenmiller's decisions.
The sudden collapse of the Thai Baht has caught the major capitals around the world preparing to attack the Thai Baht by a sense of surprise.
But in the course of the market, these capitals began to choose to open short positions in the baht.
Soon, the name of Jushi Capital was well known to everyone in the circle.
A lot of people are curious about the name.
When Jushi Capital acquired Standard Chartered, many people inquired about the origin of this company, and now, this unknown company has actually taken the lead in launching an attack on a country's sovereign currency.
For a time, the name of Jushi Capital became the most resounding name in the financial world, and even faintly competed with the Quantum Fund Tiger Fund.
In contrast, the culprit does not know how to explain it.
Jushi Capital Hong Kong Headquarters.
Zhao Jiangchuan looked at the trend of the market like a goose in a daze.
His face was completely unremarkable.
With this guy's temperament, it is very unreasonable.
After having sufficient strength, Zhao Jiangchuan was no longer ready to continue to keep a low profile.
However, now Zhao Jiangchuan only has confusion and innocence on his face.
He felt as if he had gone a little too far.
Jushi Capital was the first to leverage 10 billion US dollars in Thai baht.
After discovering that if the leverage was increased, he would kill himself, Zhao Jiangchuan could only choose to go to the Thai stock market to make some money and pay interest.
As a hanger, this guy fine-tuned the hanger to an optimal module.
Accidentally, he made 160 billion baht in the Thai stock market.
With so much money, Zhao Jiangchuan is also very weak-hearted.
He knew that the baht would collapse.
What's the matter.
Of course, before the baht collapses, let's exchange some dollars for it.
Otherwise, the Thai baht will depreciate in the future, and the baht assets in his hand will not be a big loss.
But Zhao Jiangchuan didn't expect that there would be a problem with this change.
Jushi Asset Management was very careful to sell one billion baht in the spot market every day, but before the three days were over, the baht fell from 23 to 26.
As a result, Zhao Jiangchuan was as confused as everyone else.
Or rather, he was more confused than the others.
Standing outside the chessboard, Zhao Jiangchuan is very clear about the background of the Bank of Thailand.
It's definitely not something that can be defeated by a few billions.
It stands to reason that his $3 billion is unlikely to break the Bank of Thailand's defensive line.
What's more, in addition to the Bank of Thailand, there is also its ally, the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
The alliance of these two companies once beat the international short capital to crying dad and mother.
Even the Tiger Fund and the Quantum Fund were beaten all over the place at the beginning.
But now, with only three billion US dollars, he has smashed through the elastic range of the Thai baht.
It doesn't make sense.
Suddenly, Zhao Jiangchuan's eyes lit up in a daze.
He suddenly understood what was going on.
Damn, this is a pit!