After Hu Yiting finished his judgment, he took a sip of hot tea from a teacup and looked at Qi Weimin.

Unexpectedly, Qi Weimin listened with great interest: "You go on." ”

Hu Yiting saw that Qi Weimin was not impatient with this topic, but seemed very interested, so he continued with confidence: "On the surface, the Western bourgeois regime is an ally and a cooperative relationship, and it has always been ideologically consistent and hostile to and subverted the proletarian regime state, but aside from the strategic confrontation at the ideological level, there is also fierce competition and even confrontation within Western countries.

After World War II, the United States was the absolute leader of the developed countries in the West because of its super-military hegemony, so there was no internal war between the developed countries in the West, but the economic and financial wars of various countries have not stopped, and it can be described as a battlefield without gunpowder.

Before the birth of the euro, the global currency was the absolute dominance of the US dollar, and the settlement rate of the US dollar in the world was as high as more than 80%, just like Intel ruled 80% of the computer processor market, enjoying the fruit of the 28th law brought by absolute dominance.

However, the emergence of the euro has taken the United States by a big surprise, because the European Union is an economy with an annual trade settlement of up to 27 trillion US dollars, which is 2 trillion more than the 25 trillion US dollars in trade settlement of the North American Free Trade Area, the largest economy in the world! After the birth of the euro, it swept all the way, and soon completed most of the replacement of the dollar in Europe, and by the end of last year, it had cut off one-third of the dollar's global currency settlements!

This is a serious provocation to the dollar's status as a global currency in circulation! At the beginning, the United States did not realize that the euro could really become a reality, but it did not expect that in fact, since the introduction of the euro, the rapid growth rate is as terrifying as a virus, and it has seriously threatened the global hegemony of the dollar. When it comes to practical interests, even between Western countries that are ostensibly close and cooperative, it is a red knife in and a white knife out!

Moreover, the economic manifestation of US hegemony after World War II was, first of all, the iron-clad hegemony of using the US dollar as the currency of global circulation! The US economic plundering of overseas countries must all be realized by relying on the hegemony of the US dollar, and a challenger like the euro should be killed if it does not die in the eyes of the United States!

Therefore, I think that the United States will first try to firmly choke the euro by the neck, and even if it can't be choked, it will first pinch him half-dead. ”

Qi Weimin looked at Hu Yiting in surprise: "It turns out that Xiao Hu, you still have such a deep understanding of international politics and finance!

Hu Yiting smiled shyly and said, "That's why I judged from the large-scale guerrilla attacks that have broken out in Kosovo that the United States is definitely going to take action." If you think about it, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia has just signed an agreement on stopping the civil war in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and guerrillas have appeared within it, and such a large-scale military uprising has been carried out, and the regular army of the government cannot defeat it, which shows how strong the supporting forces are behind it.

The Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, as the sphere of influence of the former Soviet Union, continued to maintain good relations with Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the Balkan region, as the fuse of World War I and World War II, has always been called the powder keg of Europe。

As the absolute leader of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the United States has almost one-word leadership in NATO, a military organization, so I estimate that the United States will definitely incite NATO to send troops to carry out military strikes on the Kosovo region in the future, triggering more intense military confrontation and conflict, and striving to expand the war, worsen the situation, provoke Russia, and drag Russia into the water, so that Europe can panic and support further military action, and finally make the whole of Europe pay for this war.

So logically, the uncertainty of the war will make the European financial market turbulent, and the first thing that financial capital thinks of is to convert the euro in their hands into dollars, so as to avoid the risk of the euro area, then the euro will definitely plummet, and I don't see a 30% drop in the exchange rate against the dollar.

As a result, the stock market of the whole of Europe will plummet, investment projects will also be affected, and there will be a massive exodus of hot money, so where will these financial assets flee when they are converted into dollars? Affirming that the United States is the first choice, a large number of financial assets pouring into the United States can drive the U.S. stock market up, provide funds for Internet investment that is waiting to be fed, provide funds for the Nasdaq market, which represents the emerging technology industry, provide funds for the U.S. real estate industry, stimulate domestic investment, stimulate domestic employment in the United States, and stimulate domestic consumption in the United States. ”

Qi Weimin looked at Hu Yiting with blazing eyes: "There is some truth in the analysis, I think your prediction is very level, reasonable, and logically reasonable, but tell me, how did you deduce that a financial crisis would break out in Asia? How did the crisis in Europe spread to Asia?"

Hu Yiting nodded: "I predicted it this way, I think that the United States has taken such pains and pains to set up a situation to sit in the bank, of course, it is a wishful thinking to swallow this huge amount of hot money in one fell swoop, but the United States is not the only choice to flee with hot money, in addition to the United States, there are also peaceful and secure countries in the world today in East Asia and Southeast Asia."

Under the strong intervention and pressure of the United States, whether willing or unwilling, Asian countries have successively opened their financial markets to the United States and realized the free convertibility of the dollar, which has cleared all obstacles for capital to flee. ”

Qi Weimin was surprised: "Are you saying that the United States is going to do something to Asia?"

Hu Yiting nodded: "Sure that the financial war is a war without gunpowder, and the consequences of victory and defeat are directly related to the fate of the country.

The more Qi Weimin listened, the more interested he became, he got up with the teacup and went to the sofa next to Hu Yiting: "Xiaohu, you go on, I think what you said is very interesting!"

Hu Yiting took a sip of tea with a smile, moistened his throat, and said: "In 1985, the United States forcibly forced the yen to appreciate through the Plaza Accord and began to plan to shear Japanese wool.

After formulating a plan to start the rapid appreciation of the yen, US dollar capital began to rush into the Japanese market, and the first choice was the stock market and real estate market.

The beginning of the drum and spread of the drum of the dollar capital army continued to drive Japanese real estate prices, causing Japanese housing prices to soar exponentially, while the yen also appreciated rapidly according to the course set by the United States, and by 1988 it had appreciated by 86%.

The consequences of this double appreciation are serious, and the final harvest of the United States is just around the corner! Japan can only be slaughtered by the neck!

As the yen appreciated, the momentum of Japanese exports began to suffer, but overseas investment began to increase, and the purchasing power of the yen increased after the appreciation, so real estate investment in the United States began to increase significantly, which directly boosted the economic growth rate of the United States.

At the same time, due to the appreciation of the yen, Japanese manufacturing companies have begun to move their factories overseas in search of cheaper labor, which has led to changes in the domestic industrial structure, and has begun to move towards industrial hollowing out and financial capitalization, and the industries that can stay in Japan are basically the companies with the highest gross profit margins.

Then the continuous surge in real estate prices caused the Japanese who originally had a very high savings rate to start buying houses on a large scale, and the common people used their life savings plus loans for more than ten or twenty years to buy houses, lest they miss the opportunity if they didn't buy again, and they couldn't afford to buy them in the future! The time has come for the dollar capital to retreat.

With the rise of Japanese real estate prices to the extreme in 91, the Japanese stock market and real estate market, where American capital has reached the sky, have quietly retreated more than half, and began to throw out the remaining assets in their hands on a large scale. As a result, Japan's real estate market and stock market began to crash, asset prices plummeted, and housing prices in parts of Tokyo plummeted by 65% in three months!

At this time, Japan wanted to cry without tears, and many people borrowed money to buy houses for 20 years, and now they can buy them with only 3 to 5 years of salary, which is equivalent to 15 to 17 years of salary being overdrawn in advance, and the next ten years of their lives have been taken away by Americans!

Next, Japan will also face a large number of bad debts of financial assets, because of the collapse of real estate, many real estate developers loan to build houses can not be sold, real estate developers go bankrupt after the house is of course credited to the bank, these original loans when the valuation of assets is seriously overvalued is an out-and-out bad debt, and the amount is huge to astronomical, Japan's bank bad debt rate soared to the sky for a time, many small banks instantly bankrupt and collapsed, the president and the real estate manufacturers jumped off the building together.

At this time, the life of the big banks has also become extremely difficult, in addition to their own bad debts in real estate and securities, the bad debts caused by guarantees and secondary loans to small banks are also piled up, coupled with the recession of domestic enterprises, the investment in fixed asset construction has almost stagnated, and no one has developed new real estate, resulting in a significant reduction in the long-term stable cash flow on which the banks depend, and the cash flow of some banks is almost exhausted, so many of the top ten large banks in Japan have been acquired and invested by the American consortium at ultra-low prices, which is equivalent to selling the country's financial lifeline to the Americans。

In addition, the aging era of Japan's population is coming, and the demographic dividend has been eaten, so Uncle Qi, let's take a look, Japan's economic recession is not at all a few years of recovery as the newspapers say, let alone the current Japanese prime minister's boast of regrouping within two years, but a negative growth, zero growth, or only a few tenths of a percent slight growth for 30 years or more. ”

Hu Yiting said that his mouth was dry, so he picked up the teacup and drank a sip of water, he remembered watching the news in his last life, and Japan's economic growth rate until 2014 was only 0.3%, and it continued to stagnate.

Qi Weimin looked at Hu Yiting in surprise: "The analysis is reasonable and well-founded, if I didn't know that you Xiaohu is engaged in mathematics and microelectronics, I would have regarded you as studying economics!"

Hu Yiting: According to what you say, next year, while the United States is striking at the euro in Europe, it will also shear sheep in Asian countries?

Hu Yiting nodded: "Roughly not much, except for China and North Korea, where the financial markets are not open, the financial markets of Asian countries are open to the United States, and the size of each country is much smaller than that of Japan at the beginning, so this shearing must be very fast, and it doesn't take a few years of effort to engage in Japan."

For those small Southeast Asian countries with small foreign exchange reserves, it is enough for the United States to shear their wool for a few months, and the hedge fund in the United States is very large, plus the hot money pouring out from Europe, so much money rushes into Asia, and when the time comes, the sheep shearing will definitely not be sheared by one country in turn, but the all-round viral spread, several countries will be scourged together, and the whole region will be a game of chess, all put in a pot and shear.

Of course, Hong Kong is the most important thing!"

Qi Weimin gasped: "Hong Kong, next year will be 97!"

Hu Yiting nodded slowly: "The ones we chose are 97 and 98! Financial wars are related to trillions of hot money! As traders, Americans are very careful in formulating plans, so they naturally have to consider the appropriate time point. ”

Qi Weimin said solemnly: "This kind of delicate time is really suitable for creating financial turmoil, and it is best to start when people are panicking! Hu Yiting, you are really a genius!"

Hu Yiting said with a smile: "Uncle Qi has won the award, I am just blindly deducing, but I am very sure this time, 99% sure!"

Qi Weimin pondered, and finally nodded: "I was moved by what you said, I think the possibility of what you said is indeed very large, even if it is not 99%, there are seventy or eighty percent, Xiaohu, can you write a report and hand it over to me? I want the leading comrades of the relevant departments to also take a look at your analysis." ”

Hu Yiting nodded: "Okay, I'll write it at night." ”

Qi Weimin smiled slightly, and said with his head bowed: "If this is the case at that time, then you will be one of the few think-tank-level talents in our country! And you are also the top kind of genius! Hehehehe, I really can't believe that these words were said by a 17-year-old young man just now! Xiaohu, I think I will have the opportunity to meet your parents in the future, they are really excellent at your education. ”

Hu Yiting smiled bitterly, thinking that Qi Weimin would be disappointed at that time, his parents were far worse than his family background, the level of contact determined the vision, and his parents were not national-level leading cadres, so how could they have an international vision. However, Hu Yiting is not inferior, and thinks that it is good to meet, and it is always good for the two families to be familiar and close.