"In the coming time, the price of oil will fall. Therefore, I believe that the country's oil policy should be conservative. Maintain the status quo and prepare for lower oil prices. Su Cheng replied bluntly and bluntly, expressing his opinion. In other words, re-emphasizing their opinions.

The wrong choice will lead to great losses. If possible, Su Cheng will try his best to convince Su Zhenguo, this has nothing to do with the individual, but about the country.

If the triangular debt is meat rotting in the pot, the wrong step of oil futures is equivalent to giving meat to others.

Director Mao and Zhu Enbo were very serious. On such a private occasion, facing the three men surnamed Su in the old, middle and young people, it can't help but make people think about it.

Zhu Enbo did not want to offend Sioux City, but he also had a strong sense of responsibility, insisting that Chapter 271 was not on the table: "At the end of November, the United Nations passed the war bill, and the current situation is that the United States has won legal justice, and they will start a war against Iraq at any time." Once the war starts, the price of oil will rise to an extent that we can hardly afford it. ”

Zhu Enbo was a little excited when he said, and his little eyes widened: "Su Dong, our country has a small profit, and the rise in international oil prices will eventually be transmitted to the domestic manufacturing system." At that time, the prices of fertilizers, agricultural films, fishing nets, and fishery supplies will also rise, driving up the prices of grain, vegetables and meat, and the prices of chemical fibers will also rise, that is, the price of clothes will rise. In addition, the increase in rubber prices and fuel prices will also increase the burden on the country. ”

In China in 1990, there were fewer vehicles. The main source of energy for heating and production is coal, and it is not as impulsive as the United States is for fuel. However, the price of chemical fiber is a big problem, "really good", "nylon", "polyester", "acrylic" and other nouns are all chemical fiber raw materials made of petroleum. At this time in China, the output of cotton and wool was very small, and petroleum and chemical fiber products were the main source of clothing, and the price of domestic clothing was expensive enough. If Chapter 271 can't be hit by this again, the textile industry will have a big problem first.

Sioux City admits that what Zhu Enbo said has a point, but it is just a truth.

He thought about it for a moment. "You're just talking about changes in oil prices under normal conditions. The problem now is that the Gulf crisis has prepaid for the rise in oil prices. From $18 to $38 up to $40. It has more than doubled, and even if the war really starts, this is the case. What's more, oil prices have now fallen back to about $35, and once you buy long, you will first face a large paper loss. ”

"At the beginning of the war, there must have been a big increase in oil. As the war drags on, the price of oil will increase steadily. Moreover, there is a risk that the war will involve Saudi Arabia, once the Middle East is broken. How outrageous the price of oil rises is likely to ......" Zhu Enbo breathed a sigh of relief and said: "Don't look at our country as an oil exporter, it is for crude oil itself." Our country imports a lot of refined oil every year, and there are more petrochemical products. These things will grow like crazy, and if you don't buy crude oil to offset it, it will cause a lot of losses. ”

Saudi Arabia is the world's largest oil producer and the country with the largest number of oil storage facilities, like OPEC's buffer pool. If Iraq invades Saudi Arabia and produces certain results, the world oil market will collapse immediately.

Director Mao nodded unconsciously. In their view, Iraq, with its hundreds of thousands of iron horsemen and a large number of high-precision equipment, is a real threat to Saudi Arabia. During the start of the ground war, there were problems with the utilization of Saudi crude oil supply.

The public says that the reason of the public, and the mother-in-law says that the reason of the mother-in-law is the current situation. Although it was difficult to convince the other party, Sioux City still tried his best, saying: "What the Gulf War will look like, let's not discuss it yet." However, from mid-August to mid-December, it has been 4 months. The Americans have not yet started fighting, just to be well prepared for the worst-case scenario. China is afraid of rising oil prices? The United States and Western countries are even more afraid, and no one wants a third oil crisis. So, as a participant and organizer of the war, the United States has done a lot of work. My guess is that once the war starts, the United States will put its strategic petroleum reserves on the market. The IEA's member countries have 3.6 billion barrels of oil in reserve, which can be consumed by the world for 96 days. ”

Zhu Enbo shook his head and said: "At the beginning of the war, the United States may put strategic oil. However, once the oil supply in the Middle East is tight or the front line is extended, oil prices will rise in retaliation, and the United States will not only stop the injection of strategic oil, but may also have to buy back. Let me say that it is possible that Iraq will use missiles and other equipment to blockade the Persian Gulf and attack Saudi Arabia's oil facilities at the same time, and the oil supply will immediately become difficult. ”

Historically, the United States and multinational forces have deployed a large number of anti-aircraft guns and missiles in Saudi oil fields, and protected the control computers of the oil fields with heavy concrete, in order to manipulate Iraq's tricks.

The Saudis did not drop the chain, using a large number of small boats to transport oil to large tankers outside the Persian Gulf, in an effort to maintain oil exports at pre-war levels.

Not only that, but the major Western oil companies also cooperated with the government's appeal and did not take the opportunity to raise prices. On the day the war began, Exxon, Chevron, Continental Oil, Atlantic Oil and other group companies all announced that they would freeze oil prices......

However, all these things are not inevitable, and the elder Bush is desperately trying to get back, and it takes a lot of energy to convince the Saudi royal family and the oil companies. In the four or five months since Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, the U.S. government's diplomatic direction has been spent on this.

It's the end of December, and Sioux City thinks these historical facts will still happen. But he can't use that as a reason.

There are so many variables.

There is indeed a possibility that the Saudi oil fields will be ignited, there is indeed a possibility that the oil routes in the Middle East will be cut off, and there is indeed a possibility that oil companies will die for money......

However, who knows before it happens?

In 1990, China was not only counting on the Gulf War to turn into the Vietnam War, but also counting on the Soviet Union to assist Iraq. According to the Cold War mentality, it was normal for the Soviet Union to finance the entry of client states into war. Although they are in chaos in the country, it is not difficult to send a few ships of arms.

In the way of hindsight, reasoning after the fact, many people can say that the head is the way. But before the start of the war, who could have guessed the details.

A sullen person like Gorbachev has made a wrong decision for half his life, and who knows if the next decision will be right or wrong?

The luck of China's reform lies in the fact that there are countries that continue to make mistakes before us. The Soviet Union adopted "shock therapy", which resulted in a chaotic economy, and China adopted a dual-track price system, delaying the crisis of full marketization. Japan's prime minister happily agreed to the Plaza Accord, and as a result, the yen appreciated much more than expected, and China took control of the exchange rate......

No matter how wise the judge is, in the face of the fog, he is actually confused.

Sioux City is not confused, but it is unlikely to convince Zhu Enbo. He turned his target to Director Mao and Su Zhenguo, and said: "The task of the National Reserve Bureau should first be to ensure the safety of the country's material supply. We are now an oil exporter, first of all, we should consider hedging, choose to buy short, oil prices rise, our profits remain the same, oil prices fall, our profits remain the same. Let's look at the changes in the oil market. ”

This is the safest way to do it, although you can't make money, it's not easy to lose money.

Zhu Enbo said uncomfortably: "My work unit is in the State Reserve Bureau, but my report is ready to be provided to Sinopec, PetroChina and other central enterprises. They have profit tasks and security tasks, which should be treated separately. ”

"Nominally an enterprise, Sinopec and PetroChina essentially have the responsibility of stabilizing domestic prices. ”

Su Dongyuan snorted very dissatisfied: "Twilight!"

If you are tortured, you must immediately bow your head and be taught.

Su Cheng looked at him and said, "During the war, anything can happen. When it is difficult to make a judgment, stability is the main thing. In such a big country, does it still have to use market speculation to raise funds? There is nothing to be proud of if it wins, but it is trouble if it loses. Moreover, there are always people who lose their pants when they enter the casino. ”

Hou Haiqing heard Su Cheng talk about the casino again, his eyelids moved, and he quickly lowered his head.

Su Dongyuan grabbed the handle and choked: "The futures market is a casino, why did you enter it?"

"I'm still young, and I'm losing. "This is for Twilight.

Su Zhenguo waved his hand, interrupting the conversation between the two with a strong smell of gunpowder, and asked with a smile: "Xiao Zhu, tell me, if you are asked to buy futures, how much are you going to buy?"

A rare opportunity to perform!

Zhu Enbo desperately mobilized his brain: it is not good to buy more futures, and it is not good to buy less.

He thought of the $87 million futures bill in Sioux City. Zhu Enbo hesitated for a moment and said: "I plan to do short-term futures for a period of time, with a contract amount of about 200 million US dollars, and when the war starts, I will march into the medium and long term." In this way, we can not only ensure profitability, but also ensure the safety of China's oil and improve the profits of the oil industry. Depending on the situation, medium- and long-term futures contracts can be raised to $500 million. ”

Judging from the government funding in 1990, this is really a lot of money.

Su Zhenguo turned to Su Cheng and asked, "How much are you going to buy?"

"The mortgage is $100 million, and the contract amount is between $1 billion and $2 billion. Su Cheng said with great certainty.

Zhu Enbo was stunned and thought: How dare you!

Sioux City looks at the nose and nose and the heart.

Su Zhenguo asked noncommittally: "What about the petrochemical base of the Haicang plan?

"Of course. Sioux City's tone was even more affirmative. ！！！