At 9 o'clock in the evening, the black car passed through the dim Chang'an Avenue, the portrait on the city tower loomed, and the red wall of the Forbidden City was calm and solemn

Hou Haiqing is Su Dongyuan's son-in-law, and it is difficult to see Su Zhenguo himself on weekdays, thinking of the next scene, his mood could not be calm for a long time, and his body was twisting in the back seat.

He turned sideways slightly, but saw that Su Cheng's face was calm, and he said unconsciously: "Su Lao inquired about the trend of oil, it is estimated that it will be used as a reference for policy, do you want to prepare anything? ”

Su Cheng moved his neck, as if he was a little dissatisfied with the comfort in the car, and said in a deep voice: "The trend is nothing more than ups and downs, do you want me to predict a specific number?"

"There has to be evidence. Hou Haiqing's mood was actually more excited than that of Su Cheng.

Su Cheng smiled and said, "Predicting the price is such a thing, no matter whether it rises or falls, there is a well-founded basis and a good reason. The result can only be true in one possibility. ”

Hou Haiqing lowered her head and thought about it. Indeed, he, a person who does not know much about the oil economy, can also come up with several reasons for the rise in oil prices, and several reasons for the decline in oil prices, which are sufficient if you look at them from the other side.

However, if he wants him to talk about the rise and fall of oil, Hou Haiqing can't say it. Especially when it goes up and when it falls, it's a black eye.

Don't look at the Huan of various domestic policy research institutions, they are all buying lottery tickets. If they are allowed to pay for their own gambling ups and downs, there is a chance that they will pretend to be dumb.

China of the decade, for business and finance in the Western world. Experience is at its extreme. After 30 years of baptism of planned economy, the decision-makers who grew up in the local area are either the sons of poor middle peasants or the sons of meritorious heroes. There are a few Chinese under the age of thirty or forty who have really seen the prototype of the market economy, and even there is a great shortage of books. And there are a lot of distortions. At that time, Chinese often found a biography of a famous business person and read it as a management textbook. It is very Mei Chaofeng's style of learning the Nine Yin True Scriptures.

Facts have proved that there are not a few business geniuses who have learned through celebrity biographies, but most of them have learned the Nine Yin White Bone Claw, not to mention learning the entire Nine Yin True Scripture, and it is difficult to get in touch with it.

To do an oil business, refine refined oil, and build a chemical factory, it is enough to use the tricks of the Nine Yin White Bone Claw. However, to predict the rise and fall of oil prices, you have to have a full set of nine yin scriptures. Or predict the future.

It is said that when the war starts, the price of oil will rise. But the 1991 Gulf War was not the case, and it was the opposite. During the crisis, oil prices jumped three times a day. During the war, the price of oil fell three times a day.

The financial institutions that made the pre-war forecasts, especially those in developing countries, lost a sea of blood. In fact, it is not surprising that before the start of the Gulf War, the military intelligence agencies of various countries around the world still had various omissions about the course and outcome of the war. What is the mistake of a business intelligence agency?

Sioux City was confident in the answer, and didn't care at all about the reasons for the nonsense of the scholars.

Hou Haiqing couldn't do this, he deliberately mentioned: "Today, in addition to Su Lao, there will be comrades from other departments present, and some comrades' opinions may be contrary to yours, so there must be theoretical support." ”

Seeing that he was really thinking about himself, Su Cheng thanked him appreciatively, and then said: "In addition to the hedging part, I am short buying tens of millions of dollars of oil futures in the London market, is there a better theoretical support than this?"

Hou Haiqing was stunned.

Su Cheng said flatly: "Why do you think everyone believes my judgment? Above the casino, any theory master is a liar, and only the gamblers on the field are the most credible. ”

Hou Haiqing coughed heavily and said: "How can this be a gambler, this is the judgment of the capital market and the foresight of the market." ”

"You're doing a good job of theory. ”

"I studied philosophy in school. Hou Haiqing said shyly and proudly.

"You don't seem to have graduated from undergrad?"

"I went to graduate school at the National People's Congress. Philosophy of Science and Technology. Hou Haiqing said nostalgically: "I learned logic, Western philosophical methods, natural philosophy, philosophy of science, and philosophy of technology...... It's hard. ”

Su Cheng thought leisurely: This guy is really a good life, a few years later, he can only go to the university to teach ideological and moral education and Ma Zhe......

The motorcade rounded the square and stopped in front of a side gate in the Great Hall of the People on time. When he arrived here, it was a formal meeting, and Su Cheng put away all kinds of ideas, straightened his cashmere coat, and followed behind Hou Haiqing.

There were four people in a small living room.

Sitting was Su Zhenguo, next to Su Dongyuan, and then Director Mao, whom Su Cheng had just met. A small-eyed man in his thirties stood to greet him, and Su Cheng began to think that he was someone's secretary, and only after being introduced did he know that he was a cadre of the National Reserve Bureau.

Needless to say, this is the professional he is today. Strictly speaking, the cadres of the National Reserve Bureau should also be professionals in the futures industry. They are also one of the few entities in China that are allowed to participate in foreign futures trading.

The national material reserves are often hundreds of thousands of tons or even millions of tons, and the use of futures market hedging methods can lock in prices, although they will not make money because of the rise of the futures market, but they will not lose money because of the decline in the international market. From the point of view of national reserves, it is the most suitable.

Among the most expensive "tuition" after China's reform and opening up, the training fee of the State Reserve Bureau is included.

Su Cheng's mind turned extremely fast, and he sat on Su Zhenguo's side, completely ignoring Su Dongyuan's beard and glare.

As a father, Su Dongyuan's mood is also complicated. In order to avoid being implicated, Su Dongyuan stopped Su Xing's business attempt and raised him as a pet, and now he is almost abolished.

The rise of Sioux City was unexpected by Su Dongyuan, even to the point where it could not be ignored. But the relationship between the two is also stiff to the extreme, and I am afraid that it will be difficult to bridge in my lifetime.

Su Zhenguo didn't give them much room for emotional fermentation, and watched Su Cheng sit firmly, so he leaned on the sofa and asked: "Su Cheng, Dahua Industrial Group, bought a lot of empty oil orders?"

"Yes. ”

"How much?"

"Now it's $87 million, and the price is concentrated between $35 and $40. Su Cheng didn't expect Su Zhenguo to ask so directly, so he answered the question neatly. This is not something to be seen, and there is nothing to hide from future profits.

"Do you think oil prices are going to fall?"

"Sooner or later. Can you ask why the NDRC cares about this?" Su Cheng looked at Director Mao and Zhu Enbo of the State Reserve Bureau.

The thirty-year-old small-eyed man moved his body and said, "We think that the price of oil will rise, to $45 to $50 in a short period of time, and to maintain it at $30 in the medium and long term, so it is necessary to make corresponding adjustments for all considerations......"

"You mean a long order?" Sioux City looked over.

Director Mao said with a smile: "The National Reserve Bureau has made a report, and Director Su thinks that it is worth discussing." ”

It's hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars.

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