(.) Whether it is the main traders of Sioux City or Dahua, they are born with pressure. (Souduwo) lost $100,000 a second late, and lost a zero with a shake of his hand.

No matter how high-end Zhou Lao Su is, he can only play the effect for three minutes at most, and he doesn't feel nervous when he gets used to it.

The traders slowly got familiar with the venue, and their movements became faster in an orderly manner. It didn't take long for the trader who picked up the phone again to return to a roaring state: "500,000 barrels is right, $26.12 ......"

Occasionally, a trader turned his head and saw the curious eyes of Zhou Lao and others, and the volume would suddenly weaken, changing from a roar to a whisper, but it didn't take long for it to return to normal.

The staff of the hospital office passing by were extremely curious, and some simply stood by and looked around, how could the State Council have been so boiling, it was like a township government. The two interns also stared at the screen with wide eyes, and for the two young girls who had just graduated, international futures trading was really a curious and unfamiliar term.

Oil prices at the beginning of the opening on January 17 were not shocked, as if yesterday's violent shocks had overdrawn today's changes, just as the Gulf crisis in the last six months overdrew the fluctuations of the Gulf War.

Whether it's people tired, or whether it's a risk advance, if you just look at the initial curve, today's futures market really doesn't have any war phase.

Only Sioux City knew that with the war entering the city, a huge crest had arrived irrepressibly.

Once the Gulf War starts, the price of oil will go up like a wild swan on the loose, and then plummet after exceeding $42. The lowest fell to $18.

Although it is often said that oil prices fluctuate dramatically, there has never been a two-hour fluctuation in the history of world oil prices that has been so dramatic. It's not just a wild rise, it's a sharp decline, from around $25 to $42, and then from $42 to below $30, like a roller coaster.

But. This is by no means a game, and not only will someone have to pay hundreds of millions of dollars for it, but the average consumer will also have to pay additional costs because of the increased risk. There are only a few who can make money. Perhaps, only those oil trusts that have access to the Bush family's circle will benefit from the news of the war.

I believe that there are many people who can guess the rise in oil prices. But there are very few people who can guess that the price of oil will drop in 2 hours. The Americans can decide when the war begins, but they can't decide when the victory will be set.

If, according to the Chinese media, the Gulf War is another quagmire of the Vietnam War, then the price of oil will have to soar to $100.

In just a few minutes, 20 million barrels of oil were bought, and with the purchase before the market closed yesterday, Dahua Industrial's long orders reached 30 million barrels, which is the same as the number of short orders on that day.

Zhang Chao reminded in a low voice: "The total amount is 780 million US dollars, do you want to continue to buy?"

"Go on. He hesitated. Sioux City explained to the senior officials behind him: "Because the price of oil is going to fall, we have to prepare some cash in case of a bad situation." But if we don't buy oil now, we won't be able to buy it until the war begins. At that time, many people will set a selling price. It's their psychological price, and when the time comes, the psychological price is often higher than the final price, so when the price of oil goes crazy, there is usually only buying. There is no selling, and the opposite is the same, and it must be laid out in advance......"

"But if you don't fight, you will lose money if you buy it now. Director Huang added with a smile: "30 million barrels of oil, if it rises by $1, it will earn $30 million, and if it falls by $1, it will lose $30 million." ”

A few people looked at each other and secretly spoke.

It is normal for the leaders of the State Council to sign tens of millions of dollars, but behind which signature is not accompanied by various considerations. How can the attribution of $30 million be decided in this way?

Zhou Lao nodded and said, "In this way, the futures market has magnified the risk?"

"If you don't want to take risks, you use hedging. Su Cheng explained, "Our state reserve center is now using this means to ensure that the price of our metal remains unchanged. There will be no money to be made and no money will be lost. Speculators are what I do now, in fact, sitting on the market is a process of discovering value. In addition, it is also a competition for pricing power. ”

The concept of "competition for pricing power?" has been around for a long time, especially in the Third World. In the 90s, African and Asian countries were very dependent on agricultural products, and the pricing power of agricultural products was in the hands of European and American countries. At that time, China was also deeply touched by this.

Su Cheng asked Zhang Chao to continue to grasp the movements of traders, and he accompanied Zhou Laodao: "Oil, like many commodities, is mainly traded in the futures market, and the price of the spot market lags behind the price of the futures market, but it is generally towards the price of the futures market. The influence of other institutions is only on the basis of the market, and cannot replace the market. For example, oil, we are trading at $26 now, so no matter which company talks to Saudi Arabian National Oil Company, it will float at most $3, and it is more than ten. This lag is not a good thing for us. ”

"Oh?"

Professor Dai smiled and said, "The lag that Su Cheng said will cause Asia to rise." It is the price of crude oil shipped to Asia, which is more expensive than crude oil shipped to Europe and the United States. This is because there is no successful crude oil trading platform in Asia now. We can only trade North Sea Brent crude oil on the London Stock Exchange, or WTI in New York, which do not reflect the real supply and demand......"

Zhou Lao said slowly: "In other words, this futures market is a negotiation process?"

"Yes, everyone will talk with real money, and if you talk nonsense, you will lose money. Professor Dai's words made everyone laugh.

Duan Yuanguang made a pair of eyes, looked at the screen and said, "The Americans are also negotiating when they fight, you are sure that they are talking today?"

"We're not very sure, but it's because we're not sure that we're able to buy a lot of oil, and when everyone is sure, it's not easy to buy such a large volume. ”

"So you'd rather lose it?"

"It's something that has to be endured. Su Cheng smiled for a moment, and said tentatively: "I was also forced to have no choice, when this futures is finished, we will invest all the funds in the construction of the petrochemical base, and we will no longer do such business in the future." ”

He didn't say anything about the Haicang plan, only about the petrochemical base. For the central government, the Haicang Plan has not only economic significance, but also political significance, which cannot be replaced by Dahua. Only when there are purely economic considerations will Dahua's petrochemical base be supported.

At present, neither Zhou Lao nor Su Zhenguo will express their position easily.

Professor Dai said: "It's hard to talk about war, if you fight for a long time, you will be in trouble." ”

"We expect that the international futures market will be sensitive to war for a very short time, and once the war starts, we will go in and come out. "Sioux City is a little unclear.

"The sensitive time is very short?" Professor Dai frowned, half curious, and said, "Su Cheng, you mean that the war will be won and lost in a short period of time?"

"Once it is determined that Saddam Hussein is not fighting back, oil prices will come down. There is no doubt that the United States will start the war with air strikes, and if Iraq's air defense does not work, or if it does, either way, we will know the outcome in a very short time. Su Cheng suddenly had a very cool feeling, mainly because the place was more magical and the audience was more high-end, so he couldn't help but add: "The air raid should have started in the early morning, I think it's almost." ”

In addition to experts on Middle East issues like Professor Dai, Zhou Lao also has a fat expert who does military consulting by his side. He couldn't interject just now, but now that Su Cheng actually began to evaluate the war, he couldn't help but say: "War is not decided by air raids alone, there are also factors of ground war. The United States may bomb Baghdad, but the number of civilians there is so large that the effect is difficult to analyze. If Saddam Hussein hid troops from the people, it would have been ineffective. ”

Even the words of hiding troops in the people were spoken, and Su Cheng said helplessly: "Iraq's troops can't always hide, if they don't gather, how can they fight?"

"It is enough to assemble at the necessary time, ground war or urban warfare, it does not need too long a build-up time, only the logistics pressure of the Americans is high, so it takes a long time to assemble. ”

Sioux City immediately surrendered: "I don't understand war, but, from my point of view, it doesn't matter how many troops exist, if Iraq's heavy equipment is destroyed, say, 40%, and the air defense facilities are ineffective, then from the perspective of war, Iraq is finished." As for the ground war, Iraqi and Kuwait's oil is no longer on the futures market, so if their troops cannot leave the country, the war is explained. ”

"The strength of Iraq's armored forces is very strong, and after camouflage, it is impossible to destroy 40% of them......"

The fat expert was only halfway through his words, and Sioux City didn't listen any more, because the white line in the futures market began to float upward.

Director Huang, who was extremely looking forward to the release, had red eyes, and the margin of the State Reserve had reached 60 million US dollars, if the oil price did not rise again, he could really only jump off the building. At this time, although he only saw the rise of less than 1 dollar, he still asked excitedly: "Is the war starting?"

Everyone looked at it.

Zhang Chao shook his head and said, "There are many people entering. ”

This is someone who got the news in advance. Su Cheng was thinking about it, when he saw the phone on the table ring, and a secretary went to answer the phone, and when he came over, he whispered to Zhou Lao and Su Zhenguo.

Director Huang took advantage of the fact that there was no one around, and whispered to Su Cheng: "Su Dong, please pull the brothers, let's advance and retreat together." ”

He is in his forties, and he considers himself a brother, but he has indeed been driven to a dead end.

…… (Your support is my biggest motivation.) )