Following the command of the team leader, the operator concentrates on pulling down the gate, pressing the button, locking the instrument, and recording the information.

Behind each group, a Casali engineer stared at him, jotting down something in his notebook from time to time. Several operators were nervous with sweaty palms, and they wiped their work clothes vigorously, and their expressions became more and more focused.

Officials of state-owned enterprises in the petrochemical system looked attentive. I have never eaten pork and have seen pig runs, and the 120,000-ton methanol project is larger than the domestic equipment, and the basic operation is similar. On the one hand, we look at the simulation system, and on the other hand, we also look at whether the level of Dahua Petrochemical is enough to put into production. Laymen often think that workers do manual work, but they do not know that there is a big difference between skilled workers, skilled workers and raw workers. Speaking of which, Lu Ban can be regarded as an eight-pole technician, and whether his apprentice can reach this level is still two words.

For example, if a company like Shanghai Petrochemical wants to sell some domestic catalysts to Dahua, it has to estimate the amount of Dahua. In the negotiation of large customers, it is very important to be attentive or not.

Director Mao and Ding Zhipeng didn't understand technology, and they just watched the workers below busy, and they didn't know what the situation was. Director Mao didn't seem to understand for a while, turned his head to face Su Cheng, and asked casually: "Has Dahua participated in international oil futures trading?"

In the 90s, a futures trading center was built in China, but the attention to oil futures was as early as the early days of reform and opening up. Since Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in August, international oil prices have soared, and by November, the price difference had doubled as high, involving hundreds of billions of funds, attracting the attention of countless people, and Director Mao seems to be a member of concern.

Su Cheng's brain turned quickly, and said: "At the end of August, I tried it with $10 million, and I made some money, and it came out soon." Dahua has a small profit and does not participate in oil futures trading. ”

At this time, the Taiwanese businessmen who came with Wang Sheng were full of regrets. said: "Su Dong is really a cautious person. In the crude oil market, the general trend is to rise, and if you invest the money you make into it, it may now become hundreds of millions of dollars. Isn't that a free gift?"

Su Cheng smiled and asked rhetorically, "Really?"

The Taiwanese businessman, who is also a businessman in the oil industry, is slightly chubby, loosely dressed and smiling. Shaking his head like a staff member. "Iraq invaded Kuwait, Kuwait's quota of several million barrels per day was exhausted, and the international blockade of Iraq was carried out. Their oil can't be shipped either. With the two companies combined, 6 million barrels of crude oil is not a problem. The Iran-Iraq war has been going on for 8 years, and who knows how long it will take this time. Hindsight. 51o buy crude oil futures in August, change hands and earn more than four or five times, if you are bold and black, 10 times more. ”

Futures are leveraged, in short, you can easily borrow money from the bank to speculate in futures. Therefore, it is not uncommon for the market price to double and make a profit of 10 times or even 20 times.

Su Cheng thought to himself, this guy is really an afterthought.

When Taiwanese businessmen saw him, they were unimpressed. said unhappily: "I don't have Su Dong's conditions, otherwise, I will definitely enter the market and make a lot of money." You have your own oil field, and when the time comes, not only can you make a lot of money in futures, but you can also make another profit in the oil field. ”

Su Cheng couldn't help but laugh and said, "It's because I have an oil field." Therefore, it is easy to buy short, but it is difficult to do long, and it is enough to stop. If you do futures is a risk, I have an oil field but a double risk. ”

"Su Dong thinks oil prices will fall?" "If oil prices fall, futures will lose money, and the income of oil fields will also decrease. That's why it's two risks.

Su Cheng didn't comment, and said with a smile: "No matter what goes up or down." I'm not ready to go in. ”

He remembered that the beginning of Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, that is, the beginning of August, was the craziest season for oil futures to rise, and he also entered the market at this time, participated in just two weeks, and quickly made a profit and exited without waiting for the price of oil to soar above $35, earning about 80 million with $10 million.

Not investing more is to control the risk. The more you understand the futures market, the more Sioux City understands the risks of futures. Many people may think that knowing the general trend of the market can make a sure profit, which can only be used to buy stock index futures, and even to buy individual stocks is not enough - God knows if the stock index will rise sharply and a certain company scandal will occur. What's even more dangerous about futures is that they are highly volatile, and bank leverage exacerbates them.

Sioux City invested $10 million, and through more than 10 times the bank leverage, the actual operation was more than $100 million, and the price of crude oil rose by about 70%, and he earned 80 million. If he invests $100 million, he does have a chance to make $800 million, but if the price of crude oil falls by 10% for a short time, Sioux City must immediately make up for $100 million.

Even in August, when crude oil soared, there were more than one brief decline of 10% or even 20%. Iraq's invasion of Kuwait was a very rapid process, and the price of oil rose from $20 to $28. At this point, many investors think, Iraq occupied Kuwait, yes, $28 should be enough. As soon as this thought spreads, the price will fall to $25. At this point, Sioux City would have to fill the same amount of money, $10 million, or $100 million.

There is no doubt that if you don't understand the market and choose to operate with a full position, even if Sioux City knows the general trend, it will explode and die because of short-term fluctuations.

In the process of rising from $20 to $35 and finally more than $40, the price of oil fell back below $30. Not to mention the full position operation, Sioux City is to enter with $30 million, and it may also be ruined by market fluctuations.

In his opinion, there are too many opportunities in the financial market to gamble at all.

It's hard to agree with other people's ideas. The Taiwan businessman said with indignation: "The United Nations resolutions on Iraq have been issued one after another, and now there are 8 copies if not 10 of them, and they are of no use." In my opinion, in the end, it is likely that international sanctions will prevail, in which case oil will continue to rise. If there is a fight, it is estimated that it will rise faster, unless the Soviet Union enters the war. I don't think so. ”

Speaking of this, he smiled proudly and said: "Therefore, the rise is inevitable, and it is a matter of rising more and less." ”

From the perspective of the result, future generations can always analyze the past. However, in the midst of history, only a few people can dispel the fog.

Yes, on February 2, the Soviet Union did abandon the one-party system, but this did not mean that the Soviet military power had weakened. In the eyes of ordinary Chinese, the big brother of the Soviet Union is not so daunting, but it is not so weak as to be bullied. They still have the largest number of nuclear weapons in the world, the largest number of conventional weapons...... If they support Iraq, even if it is only "Lend-Lease" weapons, it will be an incomparably headache for the United States. Soviet anti-aircraft missiles were undoubtedly capable of knocking down American planes.

Not only that, but many experts on the 60xs incident have always believed that with the number and weaponry of the Iraqi army, as well as the experience of the eight-year Iran-Iraq war, it will be able to withstand the US ground offensive, and at best it will suffer some losses. People who hold this kind of thinking, participate in the futures market, lose to the pants, maybe go long, looking forward to the happiness of turning over in one move.

With normal thinking, Taiwan businessmen probably did not think of the possibility of a drop in oil prices, and if we analyzed history, his basis would be more sufficient. The war in the Middle East in the 70s caused the world's oil prices to rise permanently. Why can't the same war in the Middle East cause oil prices to rise permanently?

In fact, there is only one possible way for oil prices to fall, and the war explains it as quickly as possible, and the Middle East returns to its pre-war state of affairs. Two conditions are indispensable.

Here, reality plays a joke on history, and both conditions are just fulfilled. Therefore, the rise in oil prices in 1990 was destined to be an impulsive rise. At one point, the price rose from $20 to more than $40, and eventually fell back to $20. Half a year has passed, and nothing seems to have happened.

Su Cheng recalled history, looked at the confident expressions of Taiwanese businessmen, and said with some emotion: "The good time for oil prices to rise has passed, so it is better to watch from the sidelines." ”

Director Mao noticed it and asked, "Does Chairman Su think oil prices will stop rising?"

Su Cheng said "yes" affirmatively, and added in an instant: "A short-term rise, such as lasting a day or two, is still possible, it is too difficult to grasp, so it is better not to enter." ”

"What if you're already in?"

Director Mao said it in public, it is impossible that he participated in futures trading. In the 90s, the state cadres had not much private assets. Since it's not him, it's an act of the state. Su Cheng thought for a moment and said, "If you can't exit, it's better to buy short than long." ”

The Taiwanese businessman asked in disbelief: "What is the basis for buying short?"

"In short, the situation in the Middle East is chaotic, oil prices are rising, the situation is stabilizing, oil prices are falling. I would like the situation to stabilize. Sioux City didn't say anything like a quick win for the United States, which was not popular in China in 1990. This hot war is a great baptism for the Chinese side and the world's military, and "unpredictable" is the best description.

Others only think that the stabilization of Sioux City is a stalemate, and this is also the situation after September. Iraq has not engaged in large-scale military operations other than declaring Kuwait a province, and oil prices have been slowly falling.

This kind of pullback is quite dangerous for many speculators. Director Mao said with concern: "If Dahua operates, can it make a profit in this case?"

Su Cheng hesitated: "It's more difficult, and the financial pressure may be great." ”

"But profitable?"

Su Cheng nodded slightly.

A smile appeared on Director Mao's white face, and he stopped talking.

At this time, there were bursts of cheers from below, some from the workers, and some from the people of the state-owned enterprises watching the ceremony.

Buckman shook hands with the Dahua workers with a smile on his face, and Su Cheng looked at it, quickly confessed, and went down. In his eyes, speculation in financial markets is far less attractive than industrial development.