Although Zhang Chao did not see the company's bidding documents, he also had his own understanding of the bidding price of the oilfield. At the very least, a 60% share of the bid is a threshold.

1994 was not the era of $100 per barrel of oil. If inflation is taken into account, the price of oil in the 90s was cheaper than in the 70s after the oil crisis. It is precisely under such oil and dollar prices that the Clinton administration has created a long economic boom, coupled with the Lewinsky and his trouser belt problem, this should be the happiest era for Americans, of course, it is also a more wonderful era for oil prices, and the next time this happens, it will depend on whether shale gas and economic prosperity index cooperate.

If it is the price of $100 of oil, the oil company will get 40% of the profit, and the 15% profit will be able to laugh out of the tongue, because the cost is so much, and the price has risen extremely fast, so that in many places, $100 per barrel of oil can get a profit of $80 or even $90, so the 15% sharing agreement means $12 or even $14 in revenue.

However, even if the current oil companies expect the price of oil to rise, they have to face the current oil price, and the current shareholder expectations. In the $20 to $30 range, deducting $10 to $20 in profits, and taking out 65% of the profits, many wells may be making less than $6, which would be much less than the 15% profits in the future.

Considering the large upfront development costs and the risks associated with it, making $5 or $6 per barrel of oil is about the same as signing a service agreement for many companies. After all, service agreements are fixed per barrel of earnings for the first 10 years of the 21st century. Most oil companies are still able to get service agreements of about $5 per barrel, so that although there is no joy of excess oil gushing, it is better to have stable profits.

Of course, the situation in Azerbaijan also has its peculiarities. On the one hand, the cost of oil development here is higher, and onshore oil basically has to be drilled to more than 3,000 meters, while offshore oil is no longer a shallow sea below 20 meters, but a continental shelf oil at a depth of 100 meters. As a result, the cost of extracting oil will be closer to $20, so that the profits will be slim for the first few years of oil extraction. On the other hand, Azerbaijan grants concessions for a very long time, whether for 30 or 35 years. All means that this is an asset that is constantly appreciating.

However, how high the value of the future is determines the limit of what can be paid now. In Zhang Chao's view, 60% is already a very high amount, and it is somewhat unexpected to be crossed by bp so simply.

What made him even more suspicious was what kind of bidding share Sucheng would set for Dahua Industrial? Judging from the bids for the four oil fields that have been announced so far. 60% is obviously less, but is it worth it to pay more?

Zhang Chao's brain hurts when he thinks about this question.

He quickly decided to abandon this meaningless melancholy. He coughed and began to make notes in his notes.

BP, Total, and a dozen other companies also quickly ended their celebrations, allowing the conference hall to slowly fall silent.

It is different from the four-company group formed by Dahua Industrial. When BP bids for different oil blocks, it will choose different companies to form a corporate group. This method is naturally more time-consuming and energy-consuming than a fixed company group. However, if you make the right choice for local conditions, the chances of winning the bid will also increase.

At least one point, a fixed company group such as Dahua Industrial will not acquire three oil fields in a row like BP.

Neither from economic nor political considerations, Aliyev will not do this.

After another half an hour, the room began to offer a complimentary breakfast, two slices of Western-style bread, two slices of ham or bacon, and a cup of coffee.

It's not much, but it's all hot.

It only took two minutes for Sioux City to swallow all the food on the plate in a mouthful of bread and ham and a sip of coffee.

Zhang Chao couldn't help but smile a little: "Su Dong has a really good appetite. ”

"If you don't have a supper, you won't have a good breakfast, and I'm afraid you won't be able to last until noon. Su Cheng warmed his hands with coffee in his hand, revealing a sleepy look after eating.

Zhang Chao looked at his expression and said curiously: "It's going to be the No. 6 oil block soon, are you really not worried?"

Su Cheng glared at him and said, "How can you not be worried? I'm not here to stabilize morale." ”

"Huh?" Zhang Chao never dreamed that this was the answer.

Qin Yun on the side also put down the bread in his hand in amazement: "Su Dong!"

Xiaopang showed his head very smartly and said: "I know, just like that Xie An of the Eastern Jin Dynasty, he was very excited, and he pretended to be calm, and the last kick broke the clogs." ”

"It's the teeth of clogs. Qin Yun corrected.

Xiaopang patted his head and said, "So...... Is that how toothless came to be?"

Su Cheng coughed violently, slapped the little fat head again, and said, "I don't think you want teeth." ”

"Hurt ......" Chubby covered his red spot and said with nostalgia: "Hey...... Master, you haven't beaten me for a long time. ”

"Smack!"

This time it was Qin Yun who beat her, and at the same time she twisted her chubby ears, and said hatefully: "You spineless guy, isn't it uncomfortable if you don't get beaten-"

"Of course not, I'm just talking about it...... Look, that mic is back. Chubby took advantage of little Aliyev and diverted his gaze.

Qin Yun and the others really set their eyes on the front.

Little Aliyev was expressionless and said: "The final result of the No. 5 oil field appears. After the judgment of His Excellency the President, the final bidder was Chevron. The base share increased by 14.1%, the contract fee increased by US$45 million, the concession period is 3 years, and the concession period is 35 years......"

Zhang Chao opened his mouth and couldn't close it. The increase in the 14.1% base share means that 64.1% of the profits will be handed over to the oil-producing countries after acquiring more than 10 million barrels of oilfields.

Of course, this number cannot be said to be an unprecedented number, but this is almost the limit of what Zhang Chao thinks.

Beyond this limit, oil companies will receive significantly less profits. Based on the analysis of the assessment missions, they believe that such a high share indicator will occur in the two best-performing fields, No. 8 and No. 11.

The No. 5 oil block does not give the company much information, so the risk taken by the company is much greater. If it really just gets a 10 million barrel oil field, plus a contract amount of 65 million, Chevron will have to fall into a huge loss.

"Chevron is crazy. Zhang Chao did not hesitate to give an evaluation.

Qin Yun quickly calculated and said, "They must give the No. 5 oil block a high valuation." It's an offshore oil field, right? What's the activation index?"

"$4500. Zhang Chao replied.

The activation index is a parameter used to brighten up the amount of investment required for a new well, usually expressed in terms of the number of dollars per barrel per day at steady production.

An activation index of $4,500 means that it would cost $450,000 to drill a well with a capacity of 100 barrels per day.

An oil area with an annual output of 10 million barrels means that the daily output is more than 30,000 barrels. Based on Azerbaijan's activation index, at least $130 million would be required.

Coupled with the signing fee of 65 million, it means that Chevron is ready to invest close to $200 million before seeing the surging oil tide. And that's not counting the cost of their promises to Aliyev.

In fact, if it really only produces 10 million barrels, it will not be easy for Chevron to see profitability within a decade.

Qin Yun made a judgment because of this, and said: "At least 25 million barrels." They certainly judged that the No. 5 oil block had a production capacity of more than 25 million barrels. ”

A production capacity of 25 million barrels means that the development cost will exceed 325 million, and the total cost on the surface will exceed 400 million US dollars.

Zhang Chao couldn't help but shake his head and said: "There is no need to come up with such a high basic share ratio, an increase of 11% is more than enough, who will open such a high price to grab from them." ”

As soon as he finished speaking, members of the Shell bidding team raised their hands and shouted, "We have an opinion." ”

"What?" little Aliyev, who was ready to sit down, did not seem surprised.

The representative of Shell picked up the outline that several people had just discussed, and said: "In the tender we submitted to your country, we are willing to bear the increase in the base share by 14.2%, and the increase in the contract fee is 40 million US dollars, and we ask for reconsideration. ”

"I see. Aliyev Jr. nodded, also pulled out a piece of paper from underneath, and read: "Since the two sides have a similar increase in the value of the base share, and the Chevron bidding group has a larger increase in the signing fee, in the early days of the construction of Azerbaijan, we believe that this amount is more beneficial to the country." In addition, the Chevron bidding team has a clear time allocation for the construction of the oilfield and has plans for the construction of supporting refineries, so we ultimately believe that it is more beneficial for Azerbaijan to hand over the No. 5 oil block to Chevron for development......"

If the values of the bids are close, the power will be given to the Azerbaijani government, and Shell's representatives also expected this. He argued a few words, and finally died down, and in the eyes of other companies, this only proves that the PR behind Shell is not good enough.

Zhang Chao was dumbfounded and muttered: "Shell turned out to be 14.2%...... Can this still make money?"

"With so many companies, many people think about getting oil cubes first. Qin Yun glanced at Su Cheng as he spoke, and asked sincerely, "Can we do it?"

"Look. Sioux City was also a little emotional. If he hadn't made so many preparations, he would have plunged headlong into this bottomless pit.

Probably in order to avoid too much discussion of the "government judgment" of the companies, Aliyev Jr. quickly came up with the results of the No. 6 oil field and said: "I now announce the ...... of the company that has acquired the No. 6 oil block."

With a "bang", at least hundreds of people sat up straight in front of them.

……