Chapter 868: Bubbles
On September 13, 1994, the Shanghai Composite Index was 105294 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index was 216275 points.
The entire A market, immersed in the carnival.
Lenovo Group's IPO is precisely because of the rebound in the A-share market, so it can be successfully and exceeded.
Historically, in 94, Lenovo Group chose to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and the IPO only issued more than 200 million Hong Kong dollars of new shares, and the total market value was more than 900 million Hong Kong dollars.
However, because of Lin Qi's factors, the history of Lenovo Group has changed dramatically. Not only the scope of business, from the historical agent sales of IB company's products to the PC compatible machine, and, basically, following behind American technology companies such as IB, picking up the garbage eliminated by American technology giants for a living.
And now Lenovo Group, although the business is still compatible with the machine, but it is not a PC compatible machine, no matter how good the compatible machine is, the core technology is still in the hands of the Americans.
In any case, the Pangu compatible machine can be regarded as the core technology in China. Most of the production bases of Xinchuang Electronics Group are in China, and 90 of the R&D centers are also in China. Even, in order to reduce the cost of research and development, the new entrepreneurship department sends orders to domestic scientific research units and universities, so that domestic cheap scientific research teams can replace the new entrepreneurship department to carry out research and development of some projects. In fact, this is tantamount to using market forces to spread technology to domestic scientific research institutions, and forming a marketization of scientific research.
Once the marketization of scientific research is successful, it means that scientific research institutions and scientific researchers may exchange their intelligence for a lot of returns. Let some smart people be willing to engage in scientific research. Instead of being like later generations, a large number of elites who could have contributed their intelligence in the field of scientific research have devoted themselves to fields with higher returns such as real estate and finance.
In addition, Lenovo's listing location was changed to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and the funds raised were as high as 7.5 billion yuan, and because the A-share market is still in a market environment with a small number of outstanding shares and a lot of speculation funds. This has also led to the fact that Lenovo has been speculated to a market value of 13 billion yuan.
The market capitalization bubble is large, which means risk for many investors. However, for companies, bubbles are not a risk, but a performance that improves their valuation and financing ability. If the bubble is large, it can actually be financed at a lower price and get more funds.
However, Lin Qi knows that in just 30 trading days, the A-share market has risen too much.
Take Lenovo Group as an example, it is expected to have a net profit of 500 million yuan in 94. At present, the market value has exceeded 13 billion yuan, and the price-earnings ratio is 65 times.
In terms of net assets, the current net assets are 1.5 billion, and the price-to-book ratio is as high as 867 times compared to the market value of 13 billion yuan.
Judging from the current valuation, Lenovo may be full of bubbles. Of course, compared with most listed companies, the current Lenovo bubble is actually not big, after all, in the next 10 years, the computer industry's shipments and profits will grow. In particular, there is huge room for the future of China's personal computer market. It is precisely because of this that even if there is a bubble in Lenovo's valuation now, in the next ten years, there will be no bubble relative to the current valuation.
Just like Warren Buffett once said that when he invests in a company, the more important thing is to roughly predict how large the company will be in the future, and the current price is much lower than the future valuation, as long as it is very cost-effective, then he does not care how long it takes to reach the goal.
In fact, if it is expected to be a good company with room for growth, then time will be on the side of the good company until the company reaches a bottleneck and stops growing.
Basically, any business, sooner or later, will stop growing. This time, sooner or later, is either because of the quality of the enterprise itself, or because of the ceiling ceiling of the industry it is engaged in.
Although Lin Qi felt shocked by the current bubble in the A-share market, he would not express his opinion. After all, with Lin Qi's status, whether he is bullish or bearish, he will actually offend people.
If you are bearish, to tell the truth, then soon the A-share market will continue to start a downward mode, and many people will put the blame on Lin Qi, a bearish person.
If you are politely optimistic, the rebound peaks and continues to fall, many people will say that because Lin Qi is optimistic about the stock market, it will cause it to lose.
Even if Lin Qi doesn't do anything, but the listing of Lin Qi's shareholding and holding companies will also cause various comments from many people.
But in general, Lin Qi's enterprises in the A-share market will be worthy of domestic investors in the future. Even if the valuation is expensive for the time being, in the long run, holding it for a long time will still give investors a rate of return that is no less than the future increase in house prices.
Originally, many of these high-quality companies chose to be listed on overseas stock markets. After all, if most of the domestic companies with scientific and technological content are either not listed, how many high-tech companies can really have gold content in the stock market?
After Lenovo Group went public, it continued to dump low-end computers and stuck in the low-end market in terms of price. Although, in the long run, Lenovo's products are too low-end, not high-tech, and not strategic.
However, in the short term, after Lenovo went public, it further reduced the price of low-end products, not only to Lenovo's own inventory, but also to accelerate the sale of products to return funds in order to repay the short-term debts that are about to mature.
But in fact, for new entrepreneurs, Lenovo continues to sell low-end products, in fact, it is also to let some chip production lines with relatively backward processes exert residual heat for a period of time.
For example, some 15-micron and 12-micron production lines are still sold in the market because Pangu learning series products still have a certain market volume, so these old production lines have not been eliminated so far.
To a certain extent, low-end products can be eliminated slowly, and more profits can be squeezed, which is actually conducive to the long-term development of high-tech enterprises.
If a production line is put into operation and shut down in less than five years, even if it takes two years to recover the cost, it will continue to make money in three years. But in reality, the rate of return earned in the last three years is actually very low. If it can increase the production life for a few more years, in fact, it is very beneficial to the long-term economic return of the enterprise.
The longer the payback period of these old production capacities, the more profits can be squeezed out and put into the latest production lines.
Essentially, chip factories don't just need technology to win, they need scale. Large-scale chip factories may use the old to support the new, and continue to rely on old products to make profits to support new R&D projects and the accelerated production of chip factories.
。