October 1994.

With the end of the rebound in the A-share market, Lenovo Group's share price has also fallen from a high level, reaching a maximum of nearly 13 yuan per share, and by the beginning of October, it has fallen back to 8 yuan. Of course, relative to the issue price of 3 yuan, investors who subscribe to the IPO issue price still make money.

It's just that the speculators who chase the rise and take over the market still suffer relatively heavy losses.

Of course, Lenovo's stock price fell not because of the intention of cutting leeks.

But the whole market is like this, since the end of the A-share market rebound in mid-September, the market has begun to continue to fall from its highs.

For example, the stock prices of other companies in the new entrepreneurship department, such as Konka, Xinchuang Communications, Xinchuang Xin, Vanke, etc., are basically synchronized with the market, with a decline of 10%~40%.

Among them, Vanke should fall the most, before that, Vanke was hyped by the market as a concept because of the premium issuance of shares at the premium of the new entrepreneurship system, and the stock price rose from about 5 yuan per share at the bottom to more than 12 yuan. From August to mid-September, Vanke was speculated to 30 yuan per share amid the optimism of the market. It is expected that this year's profit will be 100 million yuan and the market value of 6 billion yuan is still too overestimated. So it fell 40% in half a month, and the stock price fell back to 18 yuan.

It can be said that the lightning-like rebound market from August 94 to the first half of September rose amazingly, but the market ended faster than most people imagined.

After that, until the whole of '95, there was no long-term bull in the A-share market. In 95 years, there was a rebound similar to 94 at most, and it was more extreme than the 94 market, rising by more than 50% in a few trading days. After that, it began to decline continuously for more than half a year.

However, since 96, A-shares have begun a wave of long bulls, 96 ~ 2001, basically more ups and downs. If 96 ~ 2007 years are included in the statistical scope, it is a wave of 10 years and 10 times the super long cattle.

During the same period, U.S. stocks basically stood still, and compared with the A-share market, they were underwhelmed. Basically, in this era, the growth rate of the world's stock market is far from being comparable to that of the A-share market.

Therefore, only in the eleven years of 96 ~ 2007, A-shares are the best in the world.

Of course, it is precisely because the long bull in the first half of the A-share market is so bullish that it has entered the long bear stage since 08.

In the 96~07 year period, U.S. stocks were basically sideways and basically lifeless. The bear has a long bull section, falling more and rising less. Compared with the ten-year bull market that began in 09, it is completely intolerable.

It is precisely because he can observe market fluctuations from an after-the-fact perspective that Lin Qi is always happy and sad about such a small wave in the market.

Moreover, compared with the yield of stock speculation, Lin Qi feels that it is better to do a good job in enterprises and projects, and then, when the A-stock market scene is angry, take some companies with long-term growth space to list on the A-share market.

When the U.S. stock market is good, it is to take some short-term good concepts, but in the long run, it is a lack of assets with unprecedented growth, and go to the U.S. stock market for financing. Financing and pit Americans, kill two birds with one stone.

……

In October, the tragedy of the memory chip market was no less than that of the A-share market.

From April 94, Samsung took the initiative to ignite the fuse of the price reduction war, and the new core company responded decisively, and after that, the global memory module market has a price crash.

At the beginning of the year, the price of 8MB memory modules in the PC market was still at a sky-high price of $100. However, by October, the price had been reduced to $10.

It can be said that the retail price in the market has been inverted with the production cost of memory chip manufacturers.

Therefore, since the beginning of this year, three DRAM chip factories have declared bankruptcy. Originally, there were 21 memory chip suppliers in the world, but now it has been reduced to 18.

For consumers, now is obviously a good opportunity to buy memory modules at a reduced price, but for many industry insiders, the price of DRAM chips has fallen below the cost line.

For 8MB memory modules, the cost price of most manufacturers is 12~15 US dollars. The current price is sold, not considering the cost of channels and marketing, only considering the production cost and the market price difference, and the manufacturers in the industry have lost 2~5 US dollars.

Even with Xinchuang Xinxin, the 8MB memory module is a loss of $2.

Samsung Semiconductor, which has the largest market share in the DRAM chip industry, is similar, and the cost may even be higher. After all, Samsung's more advantages are reflected in the management of chip factories, but Samsung's equipment needs to be imported from suppliers in Japan, Europe and the United States, so the cost of equipment is not advantageous compared with Xinchuangxin.

"At present, the annual shipment of memory modules below 8MB has exceeded 8 million, but the 8MB memory modules are losing money across the board, and the price difference between PC memory modules and Pangu memory modules has basically been smoothed out. Hu Weiwu said with emotion, "The price reduction of 8MB memory modules is the most hated, and the other 16MB memory modules are the next battlefield, and they will soon enter the unprofitable stage." Basically, Xinchuangxin no longer expects memory modules to make money, but relies on the profits of CPUs, solid state drives and other products to cover the loss of memory modules. In addition, in order to increase the market share of DRAM chips, CPUs and memory modules are sold as bundles, and the ordering manufacturers will offer discounts when they purchase CPU and memory module packages. ”

"The DRAM market is still a huge piece of the pie in the long run, and after 8MB, users will upgrade to 16MB. Even, with the continuous upgrade of software and hardware platforms, 64MB, 128MB and more than GB may not be enough. In the long run, this piece of the market is a long-term gold mine. But at the same time, the competition is also very fierce, price war is the norm, every round of price war, will kill a group of opponents, the market share of the product will be concentrated in the top few manufacturers. Lin Qi said with a smile, "When only a few manufacturers of DRAM chips are left to produce, their profit margins may even reach or even exceed those of CPUs!"

"It's just that the technical threshold is low!" Hu Weiwu said, "Once the market warms up, there will be new manufacturers to layout." It can be seen that the threshold of DRAM is relatively low in the chip industry. ”

"It's still quite high, and the later it is, the higher the requirements for the process and the scale. Lin Qi said, "If you don't do it now, you will definitely be controlled by others in the future, and now, you may lose hundreds of millions a year." In the future, it may lose more than 10 billion yuan a year, and it may not be able to gain 1% of the market share. What's more, in the future, the market share will be concentrated in the hands of a few manufacturers, and during the suspension of the price war, there is a tacit understanding to do whatever you want to raise prices. ”

In the future, South Korea's Samsung and Hynix dominated DRAM memory, and only Micron remained in the United States. Japan was originally the industry hegemon, reaching 80% of the market share of DRAM chips at the peak of its share, but it was almost completely driven out of the market, and its market share was reduced to nearly zero. Taiwan's chip manufacturers later dropped tens of billions of dollars, but in the end, they lost money, and the remaining production capacity market share was less than 1%.

After Taiwanese manufacturers admitted losses, Chinese mainland manufacturers began to spend tens of billions of dollars in the DRAM memory market. Although the outcome is difficult to say, it mainly depends on the will of the country and whether it can continue to spend money to make up for classes. However, if the layout is postponed for more than ten years, the cost is far greater than the current layout.