In February 1993, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index had been in a bull market for many years. In the early 80s, once a four-year-long bear, the Hang Seng Index fluctuated around 1,000 points for a long time, surviving countless investors.

Since then, since the beginning of 85, the Hong Kong stock market has maintained a long-term bull market that has maintained new highs for seven years.

Even if there are some flash crash pullbacks in the process, it is only a short-term adjustment, and basically, most of the long-term investors at this stage, if not too poor vision, are making a lot of money.

At the beginning of '93, HSBC once again announced a new high in profitability, with a profit of more than HK$15 billion in '92, and an annual profit growth rate of 68%, which far exceeded market expectations. HSBC's market capitalization has also continued to soar from more than 100 billion last year, to 180 billion Hong Kong dollars in February, regaining the throne of Hong Kong's most valuable listed company.

Hang Seng Bank, which was incorporated into the new venture electronics group, released an annual profit of HK$5.7 billion, with an annual profit growth rate of more than 79%.

Ma Yaowen, CEO of Hang Seng Bank, said: "Hang Seng Bank's net profit of 5.7 billion yuan is achieved on the basis of our implementation of far stricter bad debt write-off than the same industry, last year we wrote off 4.6 billion yuan of bad debts, a lot of bad debts written off! If we write off some bad debts less, our profit performance may be better, but for the sake of our asset quality, we have implemented the strictest risk control and management standards." For example, take the initiative to write off bad debts on a large scale, instead of delaying the reflection of more overdue or even bad debts through whitewashing and packaging, increasing long-term risks. Due to the large range of write-off of bad debts, our asset quality is also higher than that of our peers, and the future growth rate can also be guaranteed!"

With the release of Hang Seng Bank's annual report and some explanations and explanations of its results, its market value has also increased significantly, to a market value of HK$150 billion.

In addition, listed companies such as Cheung Kong and Hutchison Whampoa under Li Ka-shing have also announced beautiful results with a profit scale of more than 5 billion Hong Kong dollars and large-scale dividend plans.

In addition, Standard Chartered Bank, Wharf, Sun Hung Kai Properties, Great Eagle Properties, Swire Properties, Wheelock, Swire Pacific, Hysan Development and a bunch of other companies have released good results.

In other words, Hong Kong's financial market is stimulated by the boom in real estate, banking and other industries, and housing prices, performance and stock prices promote each other. Housing prices are rising, the performance of real estate companies is rising, the performance of real estate companies is rising, and the performance of banks, as the father of real estate, is also rising. After that, the good performance of real estate and financial companies further pushed the stock price up.

This kind of long-term bull market in which real estate and finance are linked to each other, almost a perpetual motion machine, and no one knows when this trend will be broken.

As a result, among the 30 companies with the largest market capitalization in Hong Kong, real estate company stocks account for half. Financial companies account for a quarter, and the rest are companies in other industries, and it is really not easy to have a good market value when real estate finance companies occupy the mainstream.

Even among the listed companies controlled by the new entrepreneurship department, at present, the largest market capitalization is Hang Seng Bank.

The stock market value of Xinchuang Film and Television, Xinchuang Publishing, Xindian Toys, and even Aika New Energy Company, in which it has a stake, is far inferior to Hang Seng Bank.

Lin Qi looked at the constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Index and couldn't help sighing: "Changing the name to a real estate financial constituent stock, I'm afraid it's more scientific!"

Ma Yaowen said with a smile: "Mr. Lin, this is no way to do it, except for Hong Kong, where we don't rely on five or six million people in the Hong Kong market to make money, most of the basic revenue and profits of other companies rely on the Hong Kong market." In particular, Hong Kong's real estate market directly affects the financial statements of most of Hong Kong's local listed companies, as long as the price of real estate continues to rise, major companies are revenue and profits have repeatedly hit new highs, real estate is not good, and most of the performance of listed companies has regressed. ”

"If we go on like this, it will be a dead end!" Lin Qi said, "Overdraft the development prospects of future generations in exchange for the soaring wealth of this generation! Real estate developers are nothing, but real estate developers who rely on rising housing prices to make money are the most immoral! After real estate is tied to financial capital, it is a business model that is quite lacking in morality. You say, the price of housing has risen, and many people have scolded them for not being able to sell their houses. If the house price falls, someone will jump off the building, because, borrowing to buy a house, falling through the mortgage deposit, the bank will take away the house, have nothing, and owe a butt of loans!"

The chief executive of Hong Kong in later generations was the man behind the return to the motherland, and before the return of Hong Kong, housing prices were speculated. After the handover, the Asian financial crisis swept Hong Kong, and Chief Executive Dong launched a plan to expand the government's low-rent housing, building more than 80,000 low-rent houses every year to supply the market. In the long run, this is obviously a policy that is good for the entire city's economy and people's livelihood. However, because of the continuous decline in housing prices, dozens of people jumped off the building in a short period of time, and after that, the entire public opinion was a crusade against Chief Executive Dong. After that, the chief executive who replaced it only encouraged housing prices to rise, and absolutely did not dare to let housing prices fall.

Housing prices are rising, and the people's grievances are great, but those who can't afford to buy a house won't jump off the building in protest.

After the house price falls, some people with less down payment The house price falls below the bottom line of risk control in the loan, and the house will be taken away by the bank, and the money from the sale of the house is not enough to repay the bank's principal and interest, and the subsequent balance payment needs to continue to be repaid.

Ma Yaowen was stunned and said: "There is also a case in Hang Seng of taking away the house because of the fall in housing prices. ”

"Because, the house price has not fallen below the deposit of the loan to buy a house for the time being. Lin Qi said, "Of course, most of the time we will encounter that situation in the future, so we are prepared to adopt different policies from our market peers." Like what...... For individual users, if there is only one self-occupied house, and the real estate price falls, the user can continue to repay the principal and interest, and the house will not be forcibly taken away. ”

"This ......" Ma Yaowen not only hesitated, this policy is very unfavorable to the bank. You must know that most of the world's banks will take away the house because the bank lends the user in cash. The property itself is just collateral. When the value of the collateral plummets, the bank has to take action to ensure the safety of its principal, that is, to take the bank's house and sell it in the market to avoid the loss from expanding.

"Fool! Recall how low the default rate of ordinary users who take out loans to buy houses is!" Lin Qi said, "In most markets in the world, the final default probability of lending money to users to buy houses is extremely low! Even if a very small number of users really default, we will enforce it, and we will not forcibly take back a suite! After all, there is only one house, and the loan is still being repaid, which means that this is the only wealth that the family has, and those who take it away will force people to die." And if you give hope, or even encouragement, you will survive short-term difficulties, and sooner or later you will repay the principal and interest that will follow. And, if you have multiple properties, we don't have that policy!"

Even after the collapse of Japan's real estate bubble, the default rate of Japanese personal home loans is negligible. Even though housing prices in some areas have fallen by 90%, and real estate with a value of 20 million yen can be bought later for only 2 million, many users who buy houses still spend decades repaying tens of millions of principal and interest.

After the collapse of the real estate bubble, most of the real defaults were losses caused by companies of a commercial nature, speculating in the real estate business. No matter how big a company is, once it encounters a capital bond, bankruptcy and default will follow. In general, in the era of capitalism, the default rate of companies is higher than that of individuals, especially after the collapse of the bubble, 90% of bad debts are created by governments and enterprises, not ordinary individuals.

Consumer loans are fine, but ...... Basically, few people will default on assets such as mortgages, which are purchased for the purpose of starting a family, unless they encounter force majeure.