With the listing of the new venture publishing group, the entire media in Hong Kong seems to be very excited.

Of course, there are still a lot of sour grapes, for example, "Ming Pao", "Sing Tao" and other newspaper publishing companies, which have not yet been listed, and even if they are listed, it is impossible to give a high valuation, so they can't help but publish a bunch of negative articles.

On the first day of listing, the issue price was 30 Hong Kong dollars, the closing price exceeded 80 Hong Kong dollars, and the total market value reached 12 billion Hong Kong dollars, not only becoming the largest listed company in Hong Kong's publishing industry, but also surpassing the traditional big blue chips such as Wharf, Cheung Kong Industrial, Hutchison Whampoa, Hong Kong Electric, Hongkong Land, Standard Chartered Bank, etc., becoming the second largest blue chip stock in Hong Kong, and its market value is second only to HSBC. Up to now, there are only three listed companies in Hong Kong that refer to more than 10 billion yuan: HSBC, New Venture Publishing, and Standard Chartered. ”

"Hong Kong Economic Journal" stock evaluation experts, although the fundamentals of the new venture company is good, but the market value of more than 10 billion is still full of bubbles, even if you are optimistic about the concept of the new entrepreneurship department, but you need to know that the new venture publishing group only represents itself, does not represent other companies in the new venture department, the best quality assets of the new venture is the game industry of the new venture electronics company, as well as the VCD and CD of the new flying electronics company. These truly world-class products have nothing to do with new start-up publishing companies, and it is very irrational for investors to pay sky-high prices for new creative publishing companies. Even taking into account the potential for future performance growth, it is unlikely to reach such an exaggerated level. ”

"The market value of 10 billion yuan is too exaggerated, even if you monopolize the Hong Kong publishing industry, the market size is only worth 5 billion a year, and it has to include a monopoly on newspapers, periodicals, reference books, textbooks and so on. It is too exaggerated for a listed company to be dominated by the publishing industry, with a market value exceeding twice that of the entire Hong Kong publishing market......"

"The vast majority of listed companies in Hong Kong's capital market are valued at less than 10 times the price-earnings ratio, and the price-earnings ratios of Cheung Kong and HSBC are even only 5 times. There are so many bargains on the market that investors snap up new creative publishing at 60 times P/E that it is completely incomprehensible. Remember the golden rule of the investment market, no matter how optimistic you are about a company, you can't give too high a premium. At present, in the global bond market, it is easy to buy bonds with an annualized yield of 10%, the risk is extremely low, and the yield is very stable. For all companies with stable performance, a 10x P/E ratio corresponds to a 10% bond yield in the bond market. Even for a high-quality company that has grown tenfold in ten years, a price-to-earnings ratio of more than 25 times is still a bit crazy. ”

That's right, now Hong Kong's capital market has experienced a super long-lived bear market, with an average P/E ratio of only 7 times. Therefore, it is still difficult to accept a company with a price-to-earnings ratio of more than 60 times.

After all, during a bull market, people tend to focus on companies that continue to grow, and it doesn't matter if the P/E ratio is a little higher, as long as the growth expectation can meet the expectations of investors, and it will naturally go higher and higher.

However, in the bear market, investors are relatively cautious and choose companies that are stable, with high net assets, high profits, and high dividends, and relatively cheap valuations, which are the favorite of investors. This kind of company does not need to expect its growth at all, and it can also enjoy high dividends, plus the valuation repair dividend brought by the average valuation of the next bull market upward trend.

And overvalued companies, once the growth does not meet expectations, it will fall from the clouds to the mud, although it may not die, but investors will lose a lot, which is to pay for the exorbitant price.

……

Lin Qi took the newspapers of each family, looked at the part marked by Zhang Ru in red, and after a while, said with a smile: "These media analysis is right, 99% of the listed companies in the world are not worth buying at a valuation that is more expensive than their peers. However, they underestimated the vision of the world's top entrepreneurs! If Fisher were still alive, then he would not choose a company like Motorola, but would have become a fan of mine, holding the shares of listed companies under my name for decades, and then writing "If You Invest in Growth Stocks", telling the story of his investment in new start-up companies for decades and achieving amazing returns. ”

Fisher is 15% of Buffett's teachers, and the other 85% is Graham.

Graham is the originator of value investing, but he prefers to pick up bargains, like a garbage guy, constantly rummaging through undervalued garbage and arbitrage. It is not denied that he also studies growth stocks, but is too cautious and prefers certainty.

Fisher is a hands-on growth stock investor, Buffett was not familiar with him at first, but later bought Fisher's book, and was shocked all of a sudden, and felt that it was too late to see each other. Basically, Buffett mainly recommends a few books, two of Graham's "Securities Analysis" and "Smart Investor", of which "Smart Investor" is Graham's last book, and his unpublished manuscript is Buffett's enlightenment reading. Fisher's "How to Choose Growth Stocks", many concepts are golden sentences that Buffett kept quoting later.

In addition, Fisher is not a complete buyer of growth stocks, he has also written books such as "Conservative Investors Sleep Well at Night", in fact, conservative investors not only sleep at night, but even the yield is very good! This is similar to the discussion in "The Smart Investor".

Basically, many people who flaunt value investing in later generations are like repeaters, constantly repeating the expositions of Fisher, Graham, Buffett and others.

"......" Zhang Ru wants to find some theories to refute this person's narcissism and shamelessness. But she found that racking her brains could not come up with a reasonable rebuttal. On the contrary, the more I think about it, the more I can think of Lin Qi's various implementations that no one can understand, but afterwards they created amazing miracles.

Yes, entrepreneurs do not necessarily need profound knowledge or infinite innovation ability, the most important thing is to make a choice at the crossroads of enterprise development.

If you make the right choice, you may break through the bottleneck and continue to grow to a larger market scale on the original scale. If you make a wrong judgment, it is very difficult to maintain the original market share, and sometimes, a series of chaos will make a company with a very stable performance in the industry go down.

For example, when Hong Kong's Hongkong Land Company should have expanded vigorously, its conservative operation watched Li Ka-shing, Bao Yugang and others develop into new real estate upstarts. By the end of the 70s, Hong Kong's real estate boom was overblown, and Hongkong Land began to expand aggressively, constantly borrowing to invest in real estate projects. The end result is that you don't eat meat, and when you are beaten, Hongkong Land is indispensable. It can be said that because of the wrong choice, Hongkong Land was the largest loss-making real estate company in Hong Kong in the early 80s.

In 85 years, the real estate industry began to recover, and some real estate developers who had survived the cold winter began to re-enter a new round of growth. However, Hongkong Land has been forced to sell off its rental projects in order to pay off the huge debts and interest owed. After the handover, the top ten real estate developers in Hong Kong have nothing to do with land. It is also because the market has not been optimistic for a long time, and the stock price of Hongkong Land is too low to believe it, and it has been privatized and delisted.

Hongkong Land's failure was that it was conservative when it should be aggressive, radical when it should be conservative, and insisted on being conservative when it should be aggressive. Therefore, Hongkong Land has become a contrarian indicator of Hong Kong's real estate industry, and if Hongkong Land is crazy about taking land, it means that the real estate industry is almost about to collapse.

I have been making mistakes and not dying, mainly because the real estate industry is too profitable. In other industries with relatively high technology content, such a company should have gone bankrupt a long time ago and was not qualified to survive in the market.

"This valuation is expensive now, but in the future, many years from now, you will know that even today's sky-high market value is very cheap!" Lin Qi said confidently, "Because, the pattern determines its future!"

In fact, there are more than one billion Hong Kong dollars in cash obtained from listing financing, which is mainly used for the expansion of content and channels.

In the future, the new venture publishing group will lay out the "Global Content Industry Chain Plan", which mainly aims to take advantage of the cheap labor costs in the mainland to solicit excellent original content. At the same time, Shenzhen, Shanghai and Beijing have set up translation processing bases.

The so-called translation processing is to use the resources of domestic cheap foreign language translation talents to translate Chinese comics and other resources into Japanese, English, German, French, Latin and many other foreign languages.

Of course, this is only the initial process, after all, the translation of students learning foreign languages in their home country may not be able to meet the needs of readers in foreign markets. However, after the initial translation, we go to the overseas market to solicit industry insiders and translators who speak the local language as their native language, and carry out the refinement. Because there is a preliminary version as a reference, the finishing is also more convenient, mainly to change some grammatically correct words, but do not conform to the local speaking style, so that the quality of the translation is better. Of course, with the first translation in China as the basis, overseas translators will not shout all over the sky.

You must know that if you are looking for a translator to translate text in an overseas developed country, it is better to directly solicit local original manuscripts, because the price of translation is not cheaper than that of original ones.

This pre-processed manuscript is cheap, which is also the cheap domestic labor cost now. In the future, if you play like this, it will basically not work, because the price of domestic translation, even if it is cheaper than overseas translation, but it is not cheaper, in addition, even if the domestic translation is good at foreign language, it is not a native language, so directly take the translation provided by the translator of the Chinese mother tongue to publish overseas, it is easy to rush to the street because of cultural barriers and the style of word choice.

Moreover, Lin Qi's layout is also comic first. Because, there are more words, which tests the level and efficiency of translation. As for the translation requirements of comics, the translation requirements are relatively low, you must know that some wild comic translations on the Internet in the future market, although the translation may not be accurate, but it may not affect the reading, and the translation requirements of comics are so low that you can almost translate them with your feet.

In addition, the translation manuscript is prepared to pay according to the word, and it is more economical to translate. Popular comics, the level of text translation, the influence is only a part, the painting style, character design and storyboard, the impact may be greater.

According to Lin Qi's plan, cheap Chinese comics attacked the Japanese, American, and European markets. Maybe not every one of them can be popular, but as long as there are a few hits, then you can launch the creator's stardom and package and promote their works as global IPs.

This not only exports the influence of Chinese cultural works to the outside world, but also puts the pattern of the new venture publishing group on a new stage.

A world-class publishing giant with a good market share in various countries can definitely afford a market value of 10 billion Hong Kong dollars!

Zhang Ru shrugged his shoulders and said: "I don't know if it's true, anyway, after the ban is lifted, I will sell 100 million shares first to solve the problem of financial freedom in the second half of my life, and the rest will never be sold." ”

In order to protect the new shareholders who subscribe to the IPO, the shareholders of the original shares are required to be restricted from selling for 1 year. It's hard to say whether there is a guarantee that it will be sold at the current price a year from now.

Zhang Ru holds 8 million shares, and now holds a market value of more than 480 million. After all, it is virtual, and it is difficult to say whether it can maintain this high valuation in the future. Therefore, she is ready to settle down, and sell 100 million shares after the ban is lifted. There are many people who are similar to Zhang Ru's thoughts, and the holders of a large number of the company's original shares are all looking forward to the early lifting date of the ban, so as to sell and cash out.

But there are also many people who are firmly optimistic about the company, saying that even if the ban is lifted, there is no plan to sell it. Most of these people are paid from the company's salary and manuscript fee income, which is far higher than the market value of the stock, even if the stock is completely lost, it is nothing.

As for those who hold more shares, far higher than their salary and manuscript fee income, they are more concerned about the rise and fall of stock prices and the date of lifting the ban on the original shares.

Of course, Lin Qi has no objection to shareholders who sell after the ban is lifted, even if it is himself, although he will not directly reduce his holdings. However, the stocks you hold will still take collateral and borrow loans from banks, even if you use a 5% discount on the market value as collateral, it is also very cost-effective. After all, as long as the principal and interest are repaid when due, it will not affect the number of shares held by Lin Qi. At the same time, the use of pledged securities assets to raise funds to invest in other projects essentially accelerates Lin Qi's capital turnover efficiency.

Obtaining loans by collateralizing the shares of listed companies was one of the most common financing methods for the controlling persons of listed companies. Of course, this method also has certain risks, for example, if the stock price falls sharply, falling below the valuation of the pledge, if the collateral cannot be added, then the financing institution can only sell the collateral, resulting in the actual controller of the company, losing its own shares. If you use the money obtained from the company's equity financing to invest in new projects and lose all your money, it will be equivalent to two slaps in the face.

Therefore, even with the advantage of a large amount of scientific and technological and humanistic information in the future, Lin Qi is also cautious in using financial tools, and only uses them as bargaining chips for reasonable use. When you need to use money to invest in important projects, you will pledge financing, rather than pledging equity for blind movement, and then invest in some projects with uncertain prospects.

Many capital giants in later generations have fallen on their heels due to excessive abuse of financial leverage, and Lin Qi will take this as a warning.