Hearing Bao Feiyang say this, several designers nodded one after another, compared with developed countries such as Europe and the United States, our start is indeed too late, and the development time is short.

"What does Mayor Bao mean is that in the future, our steel production will reach one billion tons, but the proportion of short-process steelmaking will rise, so the demand for iron ore may not be so much?" asked Liu Ziyan.

Bao Feiyang nodded, and then shook his head: "Indeed, in the future, after a certain accumulation of steel stocks, our short-process steelmaking will also increase, but because our stock is too small and the development is too fast, this means that we do not have so much scrap in China, and our short-process steelmaking will develop, but a lot of scrap steel needed for short-process steelmaking will also be imported." ”

"In addition, our steel demand is too large, even if it is imported scrap, can not completely solve the problem, now the global scrap trade volume is about 50 million tons a year, even if it doubles, 100 million tons only accounts for 10 percent of the billion tons, China's future iron-steel ratio will still remain at a high ratio, about 0.95, it is difficult to reduce, that is, about 50 million tons of short-process steelmaking ......"

Bao Feiyang said: "The development of short-process steelmaking, because scrap steel has to be purchased from abroad, the cost per ton of steel is limited. In addition, the short-process steelmaking technology and the long-process process are completely different, there is no mature technology, it is difficult to control the quality of scrap remelting, so it is difficult to develop this piece in a short period of time, maybe until the domestic steel production exceeds one billion tons, and there is no certain accumulation, the short-process steelmaking will slowly increase!"

"Short-process steelmaking is not the root cause of the deviation in the calculation of iron ore consumption, a very important reason is the difference in the grade of domestic iron ore and imported iron ore, and the calculation of domestic iron ore is calculated according to the raw ore, and the import volume is ore fine, so the measurement is not the same. Generally in the industry, we multiply imported iron ore by two......" Bao Feiyang said.

"So when China's steel output reaches one billion tons, and the iron-to-steel ratio is about 0.95, considering that China's iron ore production will also increase by about five times, the output can reach about one billion tons, and the iron ore import volume should not exceed 1.5 billion tons, and it will be more than 1.2 billion tons!" Bao Feiyang said.

This data is the result of Bao Feiyang's calculation based on the prediction provided by himself, according to the current iron ore production volume, imported iron ore grade and other data models.

Chen Yusheng frowned imperceptibly: "District Chief, in order to prepare for this project, I have recently learned a little about the situation of the steel industry, last year my country's imports of iron ore reached 50 million tons, spending more than one billion dollars in foreign exchange, if the amount of imported iron ore increases twenty times, it means that we will spend 20 billion US dollars in foreign exchange in the iron ore area......

After 20 years of reform and opening up, after years of development and accumulation, the country's foreign exchange is not as precious as it was when it was first opened up, and the country's foreign exchange reserves reached more than $140 billion in '98, ranking second only to Japan and second in the world. The total import and export volume for the whole year reached more than $370 billion, of which $200 billion was exported and more than $160 billion was imported. And iron ore alone, the annual import of foreign exchange spent more than one billion, that is, six thousandths of the total imports, less than one percent, it seems that the proportion is not large, but it is not a lot, after all, there are many categories of foreign trade imports, only iron ore alone uses six thousandths, really a lot.

Chen Yusheng experienced the period of foreign exchange shortage in the early days of reform and opening up, and in his view, precious foreign exchange should be used to introduce advanced technology and equipment that we are in short supply, rather than spending on iron ore, a primary product. Although when it comes to industrial upgrading, we are very reluctant to export primary resources in exchange for foreign exchange, but in the case that we have not yet developed, we have to spend precious foreign exchange to import primary resources, and everyone feels even more uncomfortable.

When he heard that the scale of iron ore imports would continue to expand, and even cost 20 billion US dollars, Chen Yusheng couldn't help it.

In fact, when Chen Yusheng calculated this number, he did not calculate inflation and the rise in iron ore prices. Now the price of iron ore has been affected by the financial crisis of 97 years, the price has dropped from more than 30 US dollars a ton to more than 20 US dollars, which is the cheapest time in recent years, and the price of iron ore will continue to rise in the future, especially from 02 years, it has risen three times in three years, directly from 25 US dollars to more than 60 US dollars, and will reach a high of more than 100 US dollars in the future. The foreign exchange used to import iron ore is not 20 billion US dollars, but hundreds of billions of US dollars.

Others also realized the seriousness of this problem, Liu Ziyan thought for a while and asked: "I remember when I used to read books, the book seemed to say that China is the country with the largest iron ore reserves in the world, so why do we still import iron ore? Even if our iron and steel industry develops relatively fast, we don't need to import so much iron ore, right?"

Bao Feiyang smiled and said: "Well, according to the current information, the world's largest iron ore reserves are indeed China, with proven reserves of 25 billion tons, followed by Ukraine's 22 billion tons, Russia's 20 billion tons and Australia's 18 billion tons, but China's iron ore grade is relatively low, with an average grade of only 33.5%, while the world's average iron ore grade has reached 52.9%, which is still the result of being dragged down by us......"

Bao Feiyang shook his head and continued: "China's iron ore is the lowest grade among the world's top ten iron ore resource countries, the vast majority of countries in the world mine iron ore is more than 58%-60%, and the import of high-grade iron ore has reached more than 65%, so when calculating imported iron ore, we will calculate the amount of domestic iron ore twice as much, which is the reason." ”

"Wouldn't it?

Bao Feiyang said: "According to the investigation of iron ore resources by the Chinese government, the vast majority of China's iron ore reserves are poor iron ore, and the total reserves of rich iron ore are only 1.2 billion tons, accounting for less than three percent of the country's total reserves, of which the iron-rich ore for steelmaking, that is, the iron content reaches 56% of the standard, only 180 million tons, and the iron-rich ore for ironmaking, that is, the iron content reaches 50%, there are 1 billion tons, and most of these only iron-rich ores are scattered in several large iron ore areas and cannot be mined independently. According to the usual international standards, many of China's iron ore mines do not even meet the mining standards, if according to the international mining iron ore grade standards, do not count those iron ores that do not meet the standards, China's iron ore resources are very limited!"

"In addition to the low ore grade of iron ore in China, there are also various types of ore deposits, various ore types, complex ore composition, and difficult smelting. According to statistics, among China's iron ore reserves, multi-component symbiotic and associated iron ore reserves account for about one-third of the total reserves, involving many large and medium-sized mining areas in China, such as Panzhihua, Huanggang and so on. This kind of mineral processing and smelting process is complex, the level of beneficiation and smelting technology is low, and the ore is difficult to use. ”

Bao Feiyang said: "China's steelmaking industry is developing rapidly, the quantity demand for iron ore is increasing, and the quality requirements are getting higher and higher, while the domestic supply of high-grade and high-quality iron ore is insufficient, and the market competitiveness of low-grade and low-quality iron ore is indeed competitive, so the import of iron ore is increasing." ”

"In fact, at the beginning of the reform and opening up, China's iron ore imports reached 8 million tons in 1978, and by 1985 it exceeded 10 million tons, maintaining an average annual growth of 14.9%, which is the largest number of imports in China, the fastest growth rate of imports, and the largest consumption of foreign exchange in the same period!"

"I really don't know much about this!" Chen Yusheng shook his head with a wry smile, the so-called interlaced lines are like mountains, they are engaged in architectural design, and their understanding of the steel industry can only be said to be a little bit of a superficial knowledge, after all, there is a specialization in the art industry.

Liu Ziyan was even more stunned, like most young people, Liu Ziyan knew in the primary school geography textbook that Huaguo's iron ore reserves are the world's first, and learned in political textbooks that Huaguo can only export primary products and import industrial products because of its backward economy, but she didn't expect the situation in the steel industry to be completely opposite to what she imagined, as the country with the richest iron ore reserves in the world, but it needs to import a large amount of iron ore, which is simply too surprising.

The reason why Bao Feiyang wants to explain this situation in detail is also to let the designers of these ports have a more intuitive understanding of the iron ore transportation in China, especially to let them understand that the import volume of iron ore will continue to rise in the future, so the design of the iron ore terminal needs to be forward-looking!

"It is foreseeable that with the further development of China's economy, especially the improvement of domestic consumption level, the increase of infrastructure construction, our demand for steel will grow greater, referring to the industrialization process of European and American countries, we can also know that in the near term of industrialization, the demand for steel will continue to increase. Iron and steel is the food of industry, the skeleton of infrastructure, and the indispensable commodity raw material for the improvement of people's living standards...... In a maximum of 20 years, domestic steel production will exceed 1 billion tons, and the demand for iron ore will exceed 2 billion tons, more than half of which will need to be imported......"

Bao Feiyang said: "At present, the main sources of China's iron ore imports are Australia, Brazil, South Africa, India and Peru, of which more than 50 percent of the imports from Australia! Among them, Australia, Brazil's iron ore exploration prospects are promising, from the iron ore reserves and transportation costs to consider, the future of China's imported iron ore structure will not change much, in general will still be dominated by Australia and Brazil's iron ore, and then South Africa and India. The mode of transport is basically by sea!"