Chapter 380: Overconfidence

Integrating the information and materials, Wang Nuo can now draw a preliminary conclusion that the stock market will be stable in the next period of time, which is good for the appreciation of the RMB.

So...... Wang Nuo is very sure that the stock market will be as stable as Mount Tai.

However...... Qin Jiyong and Ying Zhexiu were not sure about this matter.

In the analyst's mind, there is always a bunch of variables, numbers and probabilities colliding, and the final conclusion is too wide to reach.

The analyst's job is to gradually narrow the coverage of the conclusions.

In the living room, the breathing of the three people seemed to be audible, but everyone was actually unfamiliar.

Qin Jiyong asked Wang Nuo to communicate in private, in fact, he was thinking of loving talents, but from another point of view, he was also exchanging interests.

Take Tyrone's information in exchange for Wang Nuo's true view of the stock market, and ...... Out of this door, there are some things that Wang Nuo can't tell other buyers, this is the unspoken rule.

Not to mention Ying Zhexiu, he agrees with Qin Jiyong's view on "competition", analysts are competitive, he wants to know what he has to do, and why Qin Jiyong has frequent contact.

Wang Nuo felt very wronged at first, he didn't want to enter Tailong, Qin Jiyong's apex was different from the position Wang Nuo wanted.

But after a communication, Wang Nuo had to admit it...... What leaked out of Qin Jiyong's fingers was indeed enough.

There are pros and cons, the current advantages outweigh the disadvantages, and the phenomenon that the advantages outweigh the disadvantages will continue to be maintained if you handle it well in the future.

Financial markets are so big, no matter how much you know, they can be local variables among countless variables.

Like now...... Wang Nuo began to prepare to invest in the foreign exchange market.

To enter a market with a larger capacity and higher risk, the source of information cannot be too low, Tyrone's side...... There is a need to maintain contact.

"I still insist that the stock market will give some gains and maintain a stable narrow range. After thinking about it for a while, Wang Nuo emphasized.

Although it is a repetitive remark, this is the opinion given by Wang Nuo when he knows more information.

It is equivalent to everyone almost standing on the same starting line, and the point of view given is the real embodiment of ability.

"We've already said that...... "Ying Zhexiu almost rolled up his sleeves and came up with full firepower.

"But you're not giving definitive words, we have different perceptions of probability. Wang Nuo blinked, and said strong words to Zhexiu.

Whether it is Ying Zhexiu or Qin Jiyong, their views on the market are in line with Wang Nuo, but they are only in the general direction, and they are ...... There are different probabilities of approval and even different perceptions of the process.

Qin Jiyong and Ying Zhexiu believe that the stock market will rise and not rise much, but the probability of approval may be 50% or 60%, and Wang Nuo is 100%.

Besides, what about the amplitude? Qin Jiyong and Ying Zhexiu are still worried about the amplitude, if the oscillation is too intense, it will also have a far-reaching impact on the overall situation, and in this regard, the probability of their approval is even lower, the probability of 2% amplitude may be 40%, and the probability of 3% amplitude may be 30%......

Everything is data, everything is probability, and neither Qin Jiyong nor Ying Zhexiu can be 100% sure, Wang Nuo said...... He's 100% probable.

In the battle of analysts, heroes are judged by success or failure if they are in different directions, and winners and losers are scored by probability if they are in the same direction.

100%, completely crushing other probabilities.

"If the information given by Mr. Qin is true," Wang Nuo's title to Qin Jiyong is that the teacher and the chief often change, and now that he feels a little better, he called out Mr. Qin, and he said directly: "I don't think the stock market gives too much possibility of amplitude." ”

"Fundamentally......"

"From the data side......"

The current Wang Nuo is not a weak chicken, and he has his own way of expounding his views.

It is not difficult for analysts to analyze data and information, and if they are a little bit away from one side and a little bit from this side, the point of view will be completely different, so the research report is the embodiment of the analyst's will.

Wang Nuo's meaning is very simple, he is to use almost 100% probability to explain his views, which is very surprising to Ying Zhexiu.

What about saying that "the market outlook is bullish, be careful of falling, and beware of shocks"? The surname Wang, you use such a certain tone to expound your arguments, right...... It's too much.

Who dares to participate in it? The probability of fighting can't fight you, and the direction of fighting is ...... But everyone is unanimous.

But if he can't find fault, then he is too underestimated Ying Zhexiu, he can casually pick out ten or eight problems from Wang Nuo's discourse.

"Wait, you're talking about...... The amplitude is not large, the amount is normal and relatively uniform?" Ying Zhexiu really immediately found the most risky point in Wang Nuo's exposition.

The amplitude is not large, and the probability that this argument will be justified by the market is okay.

The amount of energy is normal and relatively uniform, which is very difficult to achieve.

The two armies are facing each other, guessing the outcome is one thing, guessing the battle process, and it is detailed to almost every move, can the difficulty be the same?

"A high probability event. Wang Nuo nodded, without hesitation, and said directly: "I think this is a high probability event." ”

"That's a big problem. Ying Zhexiu glanced at Qin Jiyong and said, "If this is the case, can I understand it...... The stock market is moving according to the predetermined rhythm here, and there is no major change here, and the probability of stabilizing in other places is also very high. ”

"That's pretty much it. Qin Jiyong frowned, of course he heard this.

Seeing Qin Jiyong and Ying Zhexiu's expressions, Wang Nuo immediately knew the reason why the energy of the honest pen did not produce additional consumption.

If Wang Nuo's attitude and tone are not so determined, Qin Jiyong will be more or less affected, and this influence is placed in Tailong's layout, and there is always a possibility that there will be changes in the funds of tens of eight million.

Now Wang Nuo's attitude is a little too ...... Let it go, Qin Jiyong didn't dare to be affected.

If a mature analysis team is responsible for a large amount of capital allocation, then it is necessary to eliminate all extreme opinions, just like removing the highest score and the lowest score in the competition, everyone must come up with objective comments.

Wang Nuo's views are very extreme, and Qin Jiyong doesn't dare to believe it or can't believe it.

After communicating for a while, Qin Jiyong determined Wang Nuo's overconfidence, and suddenly sighed in his heart: It's not a good thing to be too confident.

ended the conversation and sent Wang Nuo away, Qin Jiyong was not satisfied with tonight's meeting, in his opinion, Wang Nuo, as an analyst, should not discuss his views with tonight's attitude.

The financial market, how can there be a 100% probability of something, and the point of view that leaves no room for room is right or wrong, wrong or wrong.

"Young and vigorous. Looking back, Qin Jiyong was very calm.

Young people, if they are not frustrated, they will not be as high as the sky and how thick the earth is.

Arnold's argument is too arbitrary, and the probability of error is almost 100 percent, so just wait for the results to appear. Qin Jiyong thought in his heart.

"When you enter the foreign exchange market, the speed of capital in and out is a little too slow, but ......," Wang Nuo determined the direction of investment, "high leverage, high risk, and many profits and losses." ”