Chapter 379: Part, Whole
When you go to the bathroom, of course, you cut a few variables a little, and then see if your opinion will cause energy consumption once your opinion is revealed.
The result is very reasonable, an analyst of Wang Nuo's status is powerless to influence the direction of the operation of big capital.
"My opinion is that the two ends are heavy, the middle is light, the front is open to buy, and the back is open to sell. Wang Nuo said lightly: "As for whether there are other concerns, it is not an analyst's business." ”
"Other concerns?" Qin Jiyong's eyes lit up, he thought that Wang Nuo was very sensitive to the data side, but he didn't expect it...... The strategy side is also a bit smelly.
China's financial institutions seem to be completely free, but there are some sensitive times when the transaction model is to "give face".
For example, when the stock market crash comes, does Tyrone dare to fan the flames? Dare, but only if the existence of the bank and the three associations are recognized.
If the state is determined to protect the plate, will the domestic institutions dare to do anything against it? After all, face must be given.
This is my magical Huaxia, everything pays attention to a degree.
So, this can also be something that a strategist needs to consider.
"Which aspect?" Qin Jiyong was very interested.
"Chief Qin told me first...... Which market do you want to communicate with me?" asked Wang Nuo rhetorically.
was pitted by Qin Jiyong, Wang Nuo didn't have much anger, because the stock market deduced from the current information has a high probability of no large amplitude.
On the contrary, Wang Nuo was very interested in other aspects of communication in Qin Jiyong's mouth.
"Have you paid attention to the exchange rate?" Qin Jiyong hesitated for a moment before asking.
The foreign exchange market is the foundation of almost all financial markets.
Currency can be said to be a symbol of a country's economic strength, and the exchange rate is a ...... It's complex, arguably the most complex financial data.
But no matter how complicated it is, as long as there is a market, the exchange rate will have its own rules.
And...... The foreign exchange market is big, and foreign exchange speculation by large institutions is not just foreign exchange speculation.
If the exchange rate changes, should oil, gold, and stock markets of various countries be moved? That is a sure thing, and then the structural investment strategy is given, and if you move a little, hundreds of millions of funds are just admission tickets.
In Wang Nuo's impression, Tyrone should not touch the foreign exchange market, because there is no need.
Rooted in the domestic market, the money earned by a large Chinese private financial institution like Tyrone every year is enough for the entire group to eat and drink.
Regarding the foreign exchange market, in fact, it is the national team that is in charge, the four major banks, the three major ministries, and the central mother, all of which are often cheating, and the two ends of the three days have made the World Financial Exchange and international market investors quite depressed.
China's financial market is not open, and it is impossible for Tyrone to throw the main force on the international market, how can Qin Jiyong care about this?
"The need for macro strategy. As if seeing Wang Nuo's doubts, Qin Jiyong explained simply: "Tyrone's investment strategy is directionally related to recent exchange rate changes. ”
"In the general direction, the renminbi should appreciate a little back. Ying Zhexiu did not hide it, and elaborated: "Throughout the year, the depreciation of the RMB is a bit ...... It's too big, whether it's the will of the top or the reaction of the market, the value of our currency has the meaning of raising its head. ”
Qin Jiyong and Ying Zhexiu's words and two sentences made Wang Nuo see the difference in vision and grade.
Tyrone's layout is to focus on the whole, the foreign exchange market, the futures market, the stock market, the bond market and other places should pay attention, start from the whole, adjust the part, and finally come up with a plan.
Thinking about his investment direction again, Wang Nuo feels a little unconfident, whether the RMB appreciates or depreciates...... It doesn't matter if it has anything to do with him.
It has to do with it because the exchange rate will affect the overall economic situation, which is the embodiment of the general direction and will interact with other markets, and it doesn't matter because Wang Nuo can take the exchange rate change as one of the factors.
The appreciation and depreciation of the renminbi are not necessarily positively correlated with the stock market.
For a while, Wang Nuo was asked to analyze the exchange rate, and he didn't dare to talk too deeply in front of Qin Jiyong for the time being, because the other party was the chief analyst of Tailong Securities.
"In the general direction, the appreciation of the renminbi requires the stability of the stock market. Qin Jiyong reminded slightly.
Wang Nuo immediately understood that one of the factors in the depreciation of the renminbi this year is China's financial imbalance.
The sharp rise or fall of the domestic stock market, or even the large ups and downs, is a manifestation of financial imbalance, and the irrational financial market, excessive systemic risks, and unbalanced international capital flows are all obvious.
But in the final analysis, financial data is probability, a little more stable here, a little bit of swaying there, and the market can still come up with a number in the end.
The stability of the stock market is a factor of exchange rate changes, and the cause and direction of exchange rate changes can also be a factor that affects the direction and magnitude of stock market changes, and the two are complementary to each other.
In the general direction, Tyrone believes that the stock market may be stable, and there are some articles to do about the exchange rate, and then deduce that the futures market and the bond market are also a basket of problems, and what Qin Jiyong wants to talk about is what Wang Nuo thinks about the stock market.
If the analysis conclusion of the stock market is correct, then going to the foreign exchange market according to this conclusion is actually equivalent to taking a definite amount when entering the market.
"The two sessions should be held in March...... Qin Jiyong did not mind bringing out some strategic information and analysis to communicate with Wang Nuo, and explained his views on the entire economic situation in a timely manner.
"So, I think there's going to be an uptick here, but not big. Qin Jiyong emphasized: "This point of view is only probability. ”
"It's also possible that if the amplitude is too high, the situation will be a little different. Ying Zhexiu continued.
Having said this, Wang Nuo completely understands that any institution can only give a probability when it treats the market, and it is a probability to be bullish on the stock market, and it is a probability to think that it will be stable, so ...... There is also a probability of a decline, and there is also a probability of a large shock.
These are numbers, and what Tyrone is not sure of is numbers, Wang Nuo...... Confirmed.
After being cheated by Qin Jiyong, Wang Nuo went to the bathroom to determine the trend of the stock market, he knew very well that the stock market would be as stable as Mount Tai in January, and there might be a slight fluctuation, but it would be extinguished in an instant.
Think about it again, if you set the stock market as factor A, A will affect B, A will affect C, and A will affect D, E, F......
Then A is determined, and factors such as B, C, and D are also equivalent to the existence of a definite variable, and combined, the speculation and promotion of the exchange rate also have a definite force, which seems to be ...... You can have a wave.
Wang Nuo originally thought that determining the direction of the stock market movement was to reduce all variables and lead to 100% of the energy consumption ratio of the honest pen, but he did not expect that after getting specific information from Qin Jiyong, all the information of the stock market could also be a variable in the foreign exchange market.
If you go to the foreign exchange market now, Wang Nuo will not have 100% sure information in his hands.
Financial markets are complex and wonderful.