In the first contact with Ren Likun's circle of friends, Wang Nuo did not expect to gain anything, at most he determined some relatively shallow information, and everyone could actually see that the market funds were flowing.

Other than that, Wang Nuo didn't ask about other things, and he knew that others wouldn't tell him either.

When it was a little later, to Wang Nuo's surprise, Ren Likun came up very enthusiastically and must invite Wang Nuo to have supper.

As soon as Tao Keren saw the situation, he knew that it was a common practice in the circle, Ren Likun and Wang Nuo must have something to discuss in private, so he politely declined Ren Likun's so-called invitation to "eat together", and sent his daughter Tao Xiu home alone, but he didn't forget to send Wang Nuo a warning look before closing the car door.

The local tyrants in the financial circle, eating supper represents a lot of things, and it is also very common to stuff a few girls for you while eating.

Wang Nuo quietly complained in his heart, his girlfriend hadn't hit home plate yet, and his father-in-law didn't give him room to play outside, what could he do? Facing a daughter slave who dared to tie himself, he was under a lot of pressure.

got into Ren Likun's car, but the other party's first sentence made Wang Nuo immediately lose other distractions.

"The position I know alone is more than 300,000 contracts, black and bullish!" I don't know if I want to shock Wang Nuo, Ren Likun didn't let the driver drive, he sat in the driver's seat himself, and the seat belt was not tied, so he said the information that scared Wang Nuo.

said that he was optimistic about market changes, which was analyzed by Wang Nuo himself, and pointed out that black futures were almost the same anyway.

So strictly speaking, Wang Nuo's nonsense is about half and half.

However...... Can you talk nonsense?

The black futures add up to almost cover other markets other than non-agricultural futures products, referring to the futures on the industrial chain of iron, coal, coking and steel.

On the premise that he felt that agricultural futures were not in the way, Wang Nuo said the word "black", which was completely fine, and almost all of them were right.

But what Ren Likun said made Wang Nuo's hairs stand up.

There are as many as 300,000 positions that Ren Likun knows about alone, what are the total positions of black futures now? Wang Nuo thought about the data, and the thoughts that came to his mind made him feel frightened.

There are about six or seven million contracts, and the ratio of 300,000 contracts is ...... Four or five percentage points? Wrong, if it is all bullish, it is a bullish position of eight to ten percentage points, because when the domestic futures exchange calculates the total position, it is a bilateral calculation.

People in the industry know that the total position of the domestic futures exchange, the single digit will not be an odd number, all even numbers, because buying one means that someone sells one.

Wang Nuo only had one sentence to say to Ren Likun: Lao Tie is okay.

Knowing where the long futures positions of eight or nine percentage points in the market are, Ren Likun is obviously very strong, but the meaning in his words is the reason why Wang Nuo is frightened.

Black, long.

This is the fourth quarter, and the black futures in the futures market are uncertain and the risk is huge.

Calculate the average face value of a contract of 50,000 yuan, 6 million is 300 billion, 7 million is 350 billion, and 10% of the margin ratio is also 35 billion funds.

"But there is also a spot market, and there is a large capital operation, how can there be ten times leverage. Wang Nuo thought again: "There are still some manipulation methods, which also need funds to maintain." ”

Wang Nuo's first reaction was to estimate the funds, and he came up with the same point as Ren Likun: too much money is needed.

The next point is...... In addition to the main force, it is actually very helpless.

At the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter, if you enter the futures market and do not do agricultural futures, only the secondary industry can be tried, but ...... These things are quite related.

Coal and ore are always used in smelting metals, and the rise and fall of almost a futures product will drive the price of other related products to change.

Bottom line: the demand is too high, and the situation becomes uncertain.

"I'm trying to get in right now, but I'm scared and scared...... Ay. Ren Likun took Wang Nuo to a restaurant in which he had a stake, instructed the chef to cook something and send it, and began to be honest with each other.

Huang Deming and these people don't believe in Wang Nuo, but Ren Likun has a good trust in Wang Nuo, the reason is that the decline of soybean meal futures, from the direction to the strength, and then to the variables, Ren Likun was a little shocked by Wang Nuo.

In addition, Wang Nuo's amount of funds is very small, and Ren Likun feels even more at ease.

"If I'm not mistaken, the domestic steel industry has been de-capacitating for some time. Wang Nuo asked rhetorically.

"Without that background, no one would be staring at this side. Ren Likun took out a box of cigars and motioned for Wang Nuo to bring one.

Wang Nuo shook his head, but still analyzed: "The downside should be smaller." ”

"From the demand side, there is not much room for growth, and then look at the policy side......" Ren Likun said in a tangled manner: "There is also a certain amount of suppression." ”

China's economy has been developing rapidly, and overcapacity is a problem faced by many industries, especially since the world financial crisis, the country has engaged in infrastructure construction, which has made this problem more serious to some extent.

But looking back now, this step is not wrong, but the economy is also a whole on the timeline, and some things still need to be measured, and overcapacity is a problem.

In the past few years, we have done what we should have done in recent years, but now that the demand is gone, what should we do? Will we continue to consume the vitality of the future? Of course not, labor pains are inevitable.

As a result, the production capacity is reduced, so that the output and demand are as close as possible, and the economy will develop healthily.

The change in volume will inevitably lead to price fluctuations, and in this context, black futures must have room for operation.

Ren Likun is not wrong to say that there is not much upside, because the demand is there.

The wonderful thing is that there is so much money that there is not much demand, but the money is put in the market, where is it used? Can it be exchanged for investment in the future, for example...... Futures?

This is finance, risks are everywhere, neither countries nor individuals can eliminate these risks, so the currency has been depreciating in order to gradually offset the risks and continue to spend future money to stimulate the economy.

"I'm not sure yet. Wang Nuo thought about it a lot, and in the end, he chose not to talk about his views without going through the variable reduction of the honest pen.

There are so many variables.