Chapter 514: A Handful of Big

Foreign exchange reserves are accumulated by the Chinese for decades, and now, they are China's financial nuclear weapons, and what the Chinese people do not know is that Japan's economy cannot get up, and there is a great "credit" of the Chinese.

In addition to head-on competition, the spirit of "Sino-Japanese friendship" has been giving full play to the spirit of "Sino-Japanese friendship" for decades, and has been helping Japan "regulate" its economy, and as long as there is an opportunity, it will extend a "helping hand."

However, Japan, which everyone thinks is a strong enemy and is powerless, has continued to depreciate the yen against the dollar in ten years, gradually depreciating from 1 dollar to 75 yen to about 110 yen to 110 yen to 1 dollar, that is, the yen is around 0.009 against the dollar, and the long-term depreciation is long-term.

There are economic factors in this, but the most important thing is that the yen actively depreciates, and the financial circle hates the malicious depreciation of the yen, and most financial institutions can only hedge such risks through professional operations.

What's more, the yen is not a one-time depreciation, but a long-term start, which is very powerful, if it weren't for the weakening of the dollar some time ago, the yen could play more tricks, but it is still not enough.

Japan is going all out to start the money printing machine, and the Bank of Japan is constantly printing money to buy the Japanese authorities' treasury bonds, which is equivalent to taking a pile of paper to enlarge the amount of money, and it is not about personnel, the Central Bank of China has emptied the yen assets for some reasons a few years ago, and it can also be said that it has successfully avoided the risk of loss from the depreciation of the yen, and now it is ...... It may be that they want to plunder the fruits of the yen's active depreciation again.

The results of plundering are Wang Nuo's speculation on the strategic side of the motherland, because ...... The news came too easily.

"The structural adjustment of the exchange reserve is a national secret, even if it is just a few words, Professor Su cannot reveal it, the only possibility is ...... Policy requirements. At night, Wang Nuo, who had not slept all night yesterday, was lying on the bed, and he had only rested for a short time today, but he still couldn't sleep a little.

The balance of China's foreign exchange reserves is measured in US dollars, which is a data that will be made public, but the structure of foreign exchange reserves is not disclosed, and yes, the position structure of China's foreign exchange reserves will not be disclosed.

So a person like Su Jiyue will not reveal secrets if he is killed, but he said that this only means one thing: Yang Mou.

In addition to not being afraid to speak out, what may happen next is a case where even the central bank feels that it needs to unite all the energies that can be united in order to succeed.

Giving people who are qualified enough to know that it is not a bad thing, but a good thing, which allows everyone to determine something in advance, and when the market really reacts, the words of the largest asset management institution must be taken seriously, and then push the market to move in the desired direction, it is more confident.

"I won't bet on whether the yen will be negative in interest rates, or even the depreciation after the bearishness, I will eat the possibility of a pullback, the factor that consumes energy, should be the trend of the Australian dollar, which will reverse the market's reaction, but how much probability can this add to me?"

"In the dollar index, the euro contributes 57%, the yen 13%, and the Australian dollar...... But it's not one of the six currencies. ”

"But through the determination factor of this side of the market, it can be determined that if the yen falls by 1% and other currencies do not move, the dollar index will definitely rise by more than 0.1%, and the Australian dollar will also fall against the dollar as a result?"

"I seem to have forgotten something......"

"The Australian dollar is trending downward, as if ...... I seem to have not only determined the range of the Australian dollar against the dollar, but also predicted the magnitude and frequency of the Australian dollar depreciation, so ......"

"The depreciation of the Australian dollar also has a part against the yen, and the fluctuation of the yen also provides a contribution to the trend depreciation of the Australian dollar, or ...... Not enough to cause the Australian dollar to depreciate off the trajectory of a trending depreciation. ”

"Assuming that the yen depreciates, the euro, the dollar and other currencies appreciate against the yen, and the Australian dollar depreciates against the dollar, the euro and other currencies, what is the relationship between the trend of the Australian dollar and the yen?"

"The Australian dollar exchange rate fluctuated in a narrow range, so it can be deduced that when the yen moves, the range of changes in other currencies against the Australian dollar will inversely narrow the most likely change in the yen. ”

"So the amplitude of the Australian dollar is...... No more than 0.5%!"

A quantitative can invert many variables, and many variables can delineate a certain quantitative, and the change of the data plane will lead to the change of the strategy plane, and the change of the strategy plane will promote the change of the data plane.

Wang Nuo's mind slowly became a shape, he suddenly fell asleep, and sent a proposition to the team members and the green corner: assuming that the amplitude of the Australian dollar exchange rate has been maintained below 0.5% and has a trend of depreciation in the medium line, find the most likely one-day amplitude of the yen and the more likely trend.

Meng Han, who was reading the document, received the message, and after seeing the content, he could only say: "......"

Lu Jianming hurriedly crawled out of the quilt to calculate the data, and Yuan Rongxin and Ye Yaohua could only stay up late with their noses pinched.

The green corner of Hong Kong Island waited until he woke up to analyze the topic, and then came to a conclusion before Meng Han and others.

"If the pre-factor is established, the yen's amplitude will fluctuate within 2% by 99%, and more than ninety percent will fluctuate within 1.5% in a single day, and it is likely to fluctuate around 1%, and if it is a unilateral trend, the shock within 1% will be achieved within three trading days, and the bilateral trend is more complicated, but the trend cannot be clarified. ”

Wang Nuo felt that the last data analysis had finally come to a conclusion, and one thing he could still do now was...... Prepare in advance.

Wang Nuo would not bet on whether Japan has negative interest rates, but if the yen did not have a negative interest rate strategy, he should not touch this market, so ...... First determine if there is a chance to enter, it should not cause additional energy consumption.

"The yen implemented negative interest rates in June. Wang Nuo finalized this matter first, and the handwriting left made him feel excited and regretful at the same time.

I am excited that there is a possibility, but it is a pity that if he enters the operation, the proportion of energy consumption in the early stage will be very large.

But since you have done it, don't regret it, or even ...... Do it absolutely!

"The negative interest rate on the yen is 0.1%. ”

"The negative interest rate strategy for the yen will be announced on June 5. ”

"After negative yen interest rates, the yen exchange rate will trend downward in three days. ”

Without doing anything, Wang Nuo directly pushed the information to the extreme.

The way of thinking is actually very simple, from the perspective of controlling the proportion of energy consumption, Wang Nuo's original investment plan will definitely not involve the operation of changes, that is, if Japan does not have negative interest rates, he will not enter the market, even if the yen has negative interest rates, he will not bet on the depreciation in the early stage.

Wang Nuo's original plan was to wait for the possibility of his own inference to appear after the negative interest rate appeared, and immediately go long on the yen.

Judging from the timeline, Wang Nuo's original plan did not involve the preliminary operation, and by the time he originally wanted to enter the market, these inferred things have become well-known information, and the follow-up operation will not make the energy of the honest pen produce additional consumption, unless it ...... Wang Nuo is ready to try a new plan.

If the investment plan straddles the timeline of the reduction of the variable related to the yen exchange rate, what kind of model will it be? Besides, even if the energy consumption ratio is 100%, Wang Nuo also learned one thing from this brief contact with Su Jiyue, his "kind" quality is one of the important reasons why Su Jiyue decided to "reveal" the news.

Wang Nuo is ready to gamble big, and if the financial side fails, he will get back the corresponding energy from the charity circle.