As soon as Chen Shu said this, today's meeting will naturally not end in half an hour, so that everyone can also be mentally prepared. Cai Mingli got up and left the conference room, quickly put a cup of hot water next to Chen Shu, took the notebook and returned to his seat, doing it very naturally, making it impossible to find the slightest dissatisfaction.

"When Rongwei Industry was established, I held a meeting, there were only two people below, Zhao Xiaoli and Li Ming, after our Rongwei Industry has grown, I can already see fifty or sixty people below the meeting, and now I don't dare to hold a plenary meeting, because we have limited space, and we can't sit so many people!" Chen Shu said, and everyone laughed.

"Of course, not being able to sit down now does not mean that we will not be able to sit down in the future, maybe one day we will also build a separate office building, make a king-size auditorium, and I don't believe that there will be so many people! Of course, that is a matter of the future, and today we will start our business today, that is, the market analysis, judgment and execution I just mentioned. ”

"The reason why I said it separately today is mainly related to the future development of the company and whether the company makes money. The last time I had a meeting, everyone started immediately, and so far the returns are very good, which is based on accurate market judgment, so there is such a good result. ”

"How the market judgment comes is obtained through accurate analysis. In terms of the current market situation, which sales or purchasing elite will stand up and tell everyone their thoughts or opinions?"

"If you can't analyze this market for that period of time, you can't see whether it's right or wrong, whether it's right or wrong, I won't say anything about you, if you don't dare to say it, then it proves that you haven't thought about it at all, and that's a dereliction of duty! Chen Shu asked.

"Since Mr. Chen has said it, let me briefly state my opinion. Yao Ning took over Chen Shu's words, and now he has taken over Lu Minghua's work as the director of the sales department, and the sales department is now working alone in Uniasia Logistics, mainly responsible for the company's profile sales.

"The first point is the price increase and momentum: as of yesterday, the price of billet has risen by 480 yuan/ton, and the price of welded pipe has risen by 550 yuan/ton, and the momentum and speed are faster than the original;"

"The second point is seasonality and customer reaction: now that it is winter, we have been heating here, and the three eastern provinces have basically stopped working, for our largest market, it is impossible to continue to increase, and even in a state of stagnation or reduction, but it is still too early for winter storage, but now customers are hearing the news of billet price increases, and they are more or less replenishing part of the goods;"

"Combining the above two points, the price increase now has a certain blindness, customer replenishment and even pure willingness to follow, coupled with the continuous increase in prices, and at this time the seasonality can not digest all the steel put into the market, so the price continues to chase high There is a risk, and the factors of speculation are increasing, and there is indeed a great risk. Yao Ning said seriously.

"That's a good point! Is there anything else else else that needs to be added?" asked Chen Shu while clapping.

"I'll just talk about my thoughts, and that's what we see in sales communication here, not just my personal opinion. In addition to the two points mentioned above, there is also financial pressure that must be considered. This is not only the pressure of enterprises to repay loans at the end of the year, but also the performance of banks at the end of the year, and the tightening of funds will no longer lend. ”

"To sum up these two aspects, many enterprises, especially those with loans, will consider shipping as soon as possible to plug this part of the gap, which will inevitably lead to cash-out, so the source of this strong shipment will inevitably lead to the price is difficult to continue to rise, so the possibility of the price turning back is very high. ”

"As for procurement, not to mention, large and small enterprises basically have loans, need to prepare funds to repay loans, there will also spend money to purchase inventory, and the price decline has become an inevitable trend. Li Ming said.

"That's right, did anyone say that they had different opinions, or did they have other considerations for the same opinions?" asked Chen Shu.

"In addition to what they just said, I would like to add something else, which is the current economic situation. Lu Minghua said.

"First of all, the stock market crisis, it turned out that in the case of a bull market, not only did we make money, but also other countries, including the United States, the stock market ushered in a new situation, but the big bull in front of us used to be a big bear market, which can even be called a stock market crash. There is now a huge amount of money fleeing the stock market, but there is no place to stay. ”

"The second is the inflation crisis, although our country has been saying that it is a social *lordial* market economy, but the state intervention is still very large, to solve the pressure of inflation, investment-driven economy continues to grow rapidly, is one of the aspects. ”

"Then there is the U.S. loan repayment crisis, where too many non-performing loans lead to a shortage of bank funds, deposits that are due cannot be cashed, and loans that are due cannot be repaid. What is being shown so far is only the tip of the iceberg, but an even bigger crisis is yet to come. ”

"I'm afraid some people are a little confused about the reasons I said, I don't know whether the price is bullish or bearish, what does the big economic situation have to do with our current analysis of prices, I will give you a brief explanation of this. The economic crisis and the repayment crisis did not occur independently or in that country alone. ”

"Since China's accession to the WTO, these similar crises will also affect our country, and then we will analyze the possible trends. The reasons you mentioned earlier are the most intuitive, and the impact is immediate, and everyone predicts that there will be a price adjustment that will inevitably occur, and no one can determine how much the specific range is. ”

"The question behind is whether it will rise again, I personally think it is inevitable, even if the adjustment is temporary, the general trend will inevitably continue to rise. Why? Because it is impossible for the state to allow China's economy to decline, then how can we get rid of foreign influence? Large-scale infrastructure construction is the crudest and easiest way to ensure economic stability and development. ”

"It means that we can make money by seizing the opportunity, but we can also make money by guarding this little bit of goods in our hands, but the gap is a bit big. ”

Lu Minghua talked eloquently, many people were dizzy by what was said, but Chen Shu knew very well the stakes, so he recorded a lot of content, because it will have a great impact on the company's follow-up planning.

"Do you guys have anything else to say?" Chen Shu asked again, this time there was really no one to respond, after all, the three people who spoke could be said to have analyzed everything that came to mind.

"Then let me briefly say two words, the three of them analyzed it very well, especially the situation that Lu Minghua said in the end, which is indeed in line with the current domestic situation. According to the loan repayment and the bank's year-end performance, the possibility of rushing to ship and cash out in December is very high, and the possibility of downstream commerce chasing high inventory is naturally reduced. ”

"But once the threshold at the end of the year is passed, if the loan comes down, it will naturally usher in a new climax of price increases, but if it can't be lowered, I'm afraid that the beautiful situation will move back!"

"We need to accurately grasp the time node, we Rongwei Steel and Rongwei Industrial have loans, and the repayment time is basically mid-December, so we must consider shipping and pressing inventory in December, and we can't temporarily ship to cash out, which will only give others an opportunity. ”

"What is the specific shipment, I don't think the market will turn around immediately, there will inevitably be a game process in the middle, so don't worry about no chance to replenish, boldly compress inventory. As for what will happen to the market in the later stage, we can only grasp it more when we realize the situation in the early stage. ”

"Now that the analysis and judgment have been made, the key is implementation, how to implement it, and whether the implementation is in place, are all issues that everyone here needs to consider. ”

The analysis and judgment are all there, and the rest is how to operate, which seems very simple, but will it be difficult to actually operate?

Thank you @66 for recommending the ticket at night!

(End of chapter)