Tian Haimo was a little embarrassed.

She didn't mean to ask Feng Jianxiong about it.

The reason why he said that he wanted to change jobs or start his own business was completely to get a preventive shot, so as not to talk about goofs when Feng Jianxiong looked for Cai Chongxin for tea tomorrow.

Tian Haimo's skills in dealing with people are still good.

Based on her speculation: as long as Feng Jianxiong knew that she had the intention of leaving Ahri. Then, tomorrow when Cai Chongxin or other people meet by chance mention it, Feng Jianxiong will also feel that "Sister Mo Mo wants to leave this matter by herself, and the fault is not Ahri", and deliberately avoided this topic and will not talk about it further.

However, Feng Jianxiong took it seriously.

And she was very enthusiastic to take advantage of the main course to talk about her career plan with Tian Haimo.

How can Tian Haimo make up so many "life plans"?

Every white lie, if you want to tell it well, needs countless substitute materials to plug the leak.

Fortunately, Tian Haimo is talented and intelligent, otherwise he would not be able to be the vice president of the student union in the school and win the international championship with his eloquence.

She has the potential to be a strong woman. During the more than half a year of internship, Ahri was also diligent and attentive. In terms of harvest, I am afraid that there will be more harvest than ordinary people who have worked in Ahri for two years.

In addition, the big boss Ma Feng is a mouthpiece expert, and he often pours chicken soup and dry goods to the backbone employees.

And Tian Haimo also happens to be a top eloquent, so if you organize your wording a little, you can say a lot of very considerable truths.

Under the pretense of eating foie gras, it took a minute or two to sort out his thoughts, and Tian Haimo said his thoughts in a roundabout way:

"Xiaoxiong, do you know, before I came to Ahri, I thought that my eloquence was not much different from yours. What I admire most about you is your ability to 'discern and foresee'—

It seems that when you talk about a lot of debates that seem evenly matched at the moment, you always have a vision of the future and destroy the position that one side holds firm. I asked myself if I couldn't do it, not because I didn't have the strength to argue, but because I didn't have as good a vision as you. ”

Feng Jianxiong looked at the senior sister playfully, shook the wine glass lightly, and asked playfully: "Then what do you mean by this, that is, after you have been in Ahri for more than half a year, you will no longer worship my 'foresight'?"

Tian Haimo wiped her mouth and said with a smile: "Of course not, it's just that I don't have as strong and unprincipled worship as I used to have - in Ahri, I have met too many smart people, including Mr. Ma himself, as well as several other executives who are engaged in strategic research."

In fact, they have the same ability to foresee the future as you, such as predictions about the future, what will be popular, and what will be the future outlets and goals. And after I reviewed some of their early predictions, I found that the accuracy rate is also very high, almost on par with yours.

The only difference is that their predictions do not have a precise time point to realize, and they are using a set of downward trend timetables for the cost of various factors to calculate the emergence of the next e-commerce hot spot. But they don't know exactly when factor costs will fall to a tipping point. And you, the cognition of time and cost element nodes, is sharper than theirs. ”

Feng Jianxiong listened and listened, and his expression became solemn.

He's certainly sharper than those experts and masters, after all, he's a reborn, so there's nothing to be proud of.

But Tian Haimo's mention of "others can actually foresee the future, but the time is not as accurate as yours", but once again confirmed Feng Jianxiong's vigilance in his heart.

Don't be proud to be a reborn!

The protagonists of those rebirth texts on a certain point are really reviewed, and 99% of them are pounced into a dog's nest.

Rebirth to pre-information age may be a great advantage.

However, people who have been reborn into the information age have to face a serious problem: the wise men of this world, except for those sudden pure black swan events, are very easy to predict most other historical trends.

The difference is that they don't know under what conditions and at what specific moment these things will happen.

Tian Haimo had contact with Ahri's senior management that she had today's insight:

For example, the brick family of Ahri's strategic research department actually knows that "in the future, e-commerce will be on fire from the current standardized products, and then with the maturity of 'finding the same style and picture search' to the clothing industry, driving the volume of the entire e-commerce to skyrocket, and then the outbreak of light luxury FMCG e-commerce, and finally with the further decline of logistics and data costs, the online shopping scene is further fit in life, forming a pattern of even all kinds of cheap daily necessities are bought online".

For another example, today's Tengyun think tank brick can easily say, "Traffic is so expensive now, so mobile entertainment can only read e-books." In the future, with the further popularization of mobile 3G and IFI, music and turn-based mobile games will gradually emerge. When it comes to 4G, there are also instant mobile games and live broadcasts. The live broadcast will also start with the two categories of women dancing, singing, undressing, and men playing games in the dressing room, and then as mobile traffic declines, it will begin to shift to outdoor and street live streaming......"

In the information age, everyone knows the trend.

If a mentally handicapped person goes back to 2007 from 2017 and confidently thinks, "I know what kind of business will be popular in the next ten years that Ahri and Tengyun's think tanks don't know."

Then this kind of fool is more reliable to quickly commit suicide again and read the file again, and strive to be reborn 20 years ago - the information age is not suitable for them, that is, they are reborn 10,000 times, and they are also slaves from generation to generation, and women are born from generation to generation*.

What the bulls don't know is just the cost tuyere time node behind this trend.

So, if the cost per unit of data transmission of an analog signal doesn't go down fast enough, there's something like PHS.

IFI can also occur if the cost per unit of data transmission for a digital signal does not fall fast enough.

And if it drops fast enough, maybe the world will jump directly to the 5G world without IFI.

What the cattle can't foresee is just the time of these "unexpected twists and turns" and the length of time they can last.

If the cost of turbines (compressors) drops fast enough, and the Carnot cycle efficiency of small compressors can be high, maybe there will be no twists and turns of "central air conditioning" in this world, and everyone can just use small air conditioners.

In the same way, if the cost of motors did not fall fast enough, then the rice electric appliance company that "can share the central motor that drives most electrical appliances in the home" a hundred years ago would not suddenly go out of business.

……

Ahri's half a year made Tian Haimo see through "the lack of worship of prophets without a time limit".

Even today, take a Xiaobai rebirth text she has seen and put the protagonist in front of her, clearly telling her that this person is reborn. Tian Haimo will not bow her head immediately like the girls in it, and it is impossible to be the other party's woman.

Because these people are no longer worthy of her worship.

In her eyes, those people were at most about the same abilities and life achievements as the awesome experts she knew in Ahri.

"For example, when Mr. Wei first came, Mr. Ma told him, 'Don't worry about B2B e-commerce can't do it', because 'when dozens of middle-level managers in the business world are composed of post-80s, B2B e-commerce will definitely usher in a big explosion, and now the post-80s are just using the Internet to play games'.

However, Mr. Ma also doesn't know at which point in time China's industry can achieve that 'most of the middle-level and above management is composed of the post-80s'. ”

"For another example, everyone knows that 'personalized cancer prevention and treatment with personal key gene sequencing as the core' will be an important outlet for the development of medicine in the 21st century, but experts just don't know how long it will take for this cost to fall to the process that is acceptable to patients.

Twenty years ago, not long after the Human Genome Project was proposed, such a sequencing could cost $3 billion. In the 90s, it dropped to one or two hundred million, and now it has dropped to tens of millions of dollars. Some people say that in another five years, it can be reduced to several million, and ten years later, in 2017, it may be 30~500,000 US dollars. At that time, the super-rich already had the money to use this personal genetic screening to customize cancer drugs.

Therefore, it is not difficult to predict the general direction of the future, as long as you keep an eye on the cost decline trend curve of a certain technology, the difficulty is only to step on the accuracy of the time point. A year earlier, it may have been the bones that died under the city walls. A year later, it may be watching others make meritorious contributions first, pay homage to the prime minister, and follow behind to earn some hard money. ”

Tian Haimo said so much, it is said that Feng Jianxiong should have interrupted her in advance, because many examples are the same in principle.

However, Feng Jianxiong listened patiently.

Because he found that Tian Haimo's words also had a very strong beating effect on himself, which could prevent him from being too inflated because he relied on the prophet to continuously guide the country and talk and laugh successfully.

I really didn't expect that Tian Haimo had grown up to be his mentor and friend on an equal footing, and no longer just worshipped him.

Feng Jianxiong sighed in his heart for a while, took a deep breath, and regained the initiative of the topic: "Having said so much, do you want to prove, 'You can also predict the field of e-commerce, which entrepreneurial directions will have a chance to fire in the future'? So, tell me your conclusion - if you start your own business, what do you want to do?"

Tian Haimo was originally just looking for something to say and prevaricate Feng Jianxiong's question, but in the mutual language exchange, the two inspired each other, which also made Tian Haimo really think of some useful ideas - at least worth exploring.

The most common line on the lips of debaters looking for political correctness for their cause is that "the more the truth is debated, the clearer it becomes."

Unexpectedly, in the arena and opponents at home and abroad, they failed to "understand" any truth, but between teammates who once fit Moji, eating red wine steak, and having a relaxed conversation, they learned so many sparks of wisdom.

Tian Haimo cleared his mind and expressed his opinion: "As I said just now, the e-commerce of standardized products has developed enough, and the cost of rent will be further increased in the future, and the cost of logistics and data will be further reduced.

However, it is difficult to establish user brand loyalty for online merchants when they buy beautiful clothes - users come to buy beautiful clothes, and they look at the popular models and the same style of Internet celebrities, rather than what brand of clothes they are. If they are loyal to the brand, they will still go to the existing brand-name flagship store to buy, and entrepreneurs have no chance, they can only be a platform, not a brand.

So, if I take the initiative to start my own business, I can consider tasteful FMCG in the next few years. and even take some differentiated routes, such as two-dimensional, selling cuteness, and grabbing young consumers...... I haven't figured out the details yet.

It's just that it's still a little early to start, and I always feel that the day when Mr. Ma said that 'the middle class will always grow bigger and bigger and consume will upgrade in the future' is far away. If I do it too soon, before the good days come, I will die in the darkest hours before dawn. ”

Tian Haimo explained her calculations and calculations in one go.

As soon as Feng Jianxiong heard it, he knew that her views were deeply influenced by Ma Feng.

Because Ma Feng often puts a famous saying on his lips: The sun the day after tomorrow is very beautiful, and everyone knows it. But whoever does it early because of greed will die tomorrow night.