"How do you want to bet?" Raymond lay almost entirely on the table. Pen % fun % Pavilion www.biquge.info

"First of all, the first phase of clinical trials, if you can guarantee time and resources, I guarantee that there must be active substances that pass the first phase of clinical trials, otherwise, I don't want a penny. Yang Rui said that the whole table was dumbfounded.

Raymond subconsciously picked up a piece of belly popping, and said while chewing: "Milestone payment method? Yes, but not a penny, and no down payment?"

The milestone payment method can be said to be a kind of progress payment, but it is different from the ordinary phased payment, and the milestones established in advance are not necessarily related to the overall progress or the overall progress.

This method also often appears in international projects, such as building a railway, if it is paid in stages, such as completing one-fifth of the length, although the corresponding payment will be obtained, but the project party still has the responsibility of completing the whole project, otherwise, it will inevitably suffer a claim, and the money obtained before will also be spit back. However, if it is a milestone payment, the project party will not have the responsibility to complete the whole project, and the later ones will not want to do it or can't finish it, just turn around and leave.

Pharmaceutical companies generally make milestone payments because there is no guarantee that a drug will be marketed, let alone sold after it is launched.

Yang Rui was unusually confident, and said: "It's up to you to decide, I can give up the down payment, but if the first phase of the clinical trial has an active substance passed, I want 20 million US dollars." ”

"Hey, brother, slow down. As if suddenly hit by F1, the Italian exclaimed, "$20 million for a phase I clinical trial? ”

"$20 million has no down payment. Of course, I have no problem with a $12 million down payment and a $6 million Phase 1 clinical milestone. Yang Rui shrugged.

The Italians calculated that a milestone of $2 million for a down payment seemed to be quite cost-effective, so they spread out their hands and said something Italian.

Arnold relieved himself at this time and said: "The down payment of 12 million is a little more, the down payment of 10 million US dollars, the milestone of 5 million US dollars, JieliZeneca is willing to accept it." ”

Although it was a bargain, it was also an Arnold-style overture.

After all, someone counter-offering means that the bottom line is established. Although this bottom line is really low.

However, it was also because Yang Rui's offer was low enough that Arnold would bargain and show goodwill.

In the process of new drug development, preclinical research accounts for about 10% to 15% of the overall development cost, usually calculated as 13%.

In the 80s, the cost of developing a new drug was more than $100 million, and the development cost of a pure new drug usually exceeded $200 million, with a few reaching $500 million. Based on this cost, the work done by Sinovel Labs should be valued at $26 million.

However, this is the price of ordinary drugs, and as a rare drug, the profit prospects of deferiprone are relatively weak, so Yang Rui opened a lower price, which is tempting.

Seeing that everyone had no other opinions, Yang Rui nodded and said: "That's it, a Class A VAM agreement with no down payment, with active substances passed, no matter how many kinds, the milestone is 20 million US dollars." ”

"Category B is a VAM agreement that contains a down payment of $10 million, with $10 million to be paid regardless of whether the active substance is passed, but if two active substances are passed, the milestone is $5 million. Three active substances passed, milestone 10 million dollars, and so on. If all seven active substances pass the first phase of clinical trials, it will increase by $30 million. ”

"No way!"

"That's too high!" the table objected.

The Japanese even stood up and said: "According to this calculation, it is possible that Class B will have to pay the milestone of 40 million US dollars." ”

"There are seven active substances passed through the first phase of the clinical trial, and it is not much to get 40 million US dollars, isn't it?" Yang Rui said very indifferently.

"Too much, too much. The Japanese shook his head and said, "And there are too many seven active substances." ”

"Nobody thinks there are too many actives. Besides, this is only the first phase of the clinical trial, so it's not a big deal to have more chips and spend a little more money. Right. Yang Rui chuckled twice.

"No, we can't afford to grow so quickly. The Japanese shook his head vigorously.

Norwegians and Germans also objected, demanding a reduction in the amount of the milestone.

Although the probability of all seven active substances passing the first phase of clinical trials is very low, the bet itself is playing with chances, and they are certainly not willing to hang a sword over their heads.

Fraud in clinical trials is also difficult and unnecessary.

First of all, it is more important than tens of millions of dollars for all seven active substances to pass the phase I clinical trial, and no company will cover up an active substance after it has passed the clinical trial in order to save $5 million.

Secondly, clinical trials are a very rigorous scientific research process, although there is inevitably the possibility of cheating, but if the agreement is signed properly, the whole process can be basically monitored, and many large companies are subcontracting clinical trials to professional third-party companies, which makes the cost of clinical trial fraud higher.

Uneo Aoki from Fujisawa Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. thought about it for a long time and said, "We are willing to pay an additional $2 million for each additional active substance that passes. ”

"All seven passed to give an extra 12 million more than Class A, only 2 million more than Class A? impossible, not even the $3 million milestone. With so many people present, only Yang Rui knew with certainty that the seven would definitely pass, so after he replied very seriously, he said: "This is a VAM agreement, if you don't like the VAM agreement, you can renegotiate the overall price." Or choose the Class A milestone, $20 million to lock in the risk of Phase 1 clinical trials. ”

After a pause, Yang Rui said: "If you choose a class A milestone and pass it, theoretically, you can directly resell ferrite to other companies, I think, 40 million or 50 million US dollars, someone will rush to ask for it." If you pass through a lot of active substances, it's possible to sell them for double, right? That means if you take $1 million, you can draw a $20 million, or $40 million jackpot. ”

The cost of the first phase of the trial is the cheapest in the fourth phase of the clinical trial, because it only requires dozens of people to participate and do safety testing, which can be done for about $1 million.

Despite this, there are still very few drugs that can pass the first phase of clinical trials, and they are very valuable.

Some companies are willing to buy such drugs to reduce the risk in the early stage.

Neo Aoki didn't talk anymore.

As Yang Rui said, although the Class A milestone is expensive, Yang Rui gets 20 million at the same time, which also means that the company that buys deferiprone will earn at least 20 million US dollars.

On the contrary, Yang Rui could not get the money, which was the time when the biggest loss occurred, and the company that bought deferiprone would bear the risk of $1 million for it.

VAM agreements are the best way to reduce costs, and they can eventually sell the risk of VAM to other financial companies or insurance institutions, so as long as the price of the VAM is not too high, big pharma companies will always have room to make a profit.

The overall purchase is different, the risk is borne by the company, and it is simply not feasible unless it is extremely cheap.

"The increase in the active substance can be divided into more than four, and below four. The two Germans present, both younger, spoke English with a slight accent, spoke more slowly, and said, "I suggest." There are also two types of category B milestones, which you can choose freely. Class BA According to Mr. Yang Rui, for each more active substance passed, a certain amount of milestone was paid to Sinovel Laboratories, Class BB, and I would like to bet on more than two active substances passed, less than four. ”

The four active substances are more suitable for the number of clinical trials, which can not only increase the pass rate of clinical trials, but also not significantly increase the cost of clinical trials.

Of course, the active ingredient is always the most and the best, and here it is only a matter of cost performance and chance.

Several people nodded in agreement.

Yang Rui summed up like a stream: "Then there are two categories, class BA, each more active substance, an increase of 5 million US dollars, if all seven are passed, an additional 30 million US dollars." Category BB, with two actives passed, $4 million milestone, three actives passed, $8 million milestone, four actives passed, $12 million milestone, five passed by increasing milestones amounting to $22 million, six passed by 32 million, and seven all passed, $42 million. ”

The last number of people who listened to it was secretly speechless, but no one objected anymore. Seven active substances participate in the first phase of the clinical trial, and it is better to pass four, but it is not surprising that two or three can pass, so that in the largest range of passing, if you bet on class B, two passes will be less than $1 million, three passes will be less than $2 million, and four can also save $3 million. Of course, five passes will increase expenses by $2 million, six by $7 million, and seven by $12 million, although this is not a balanced step-by-step growth, but the milestone is inherently rewarding.

What's more, if the seven active substances pass, it means that the company that pays for it will also make more money, and the simplest one will have to make a profit of at least four or five hundred thousand dollars.

"The exact amount is up for discussion, but we agree with the classification. Uneo Aoki of Fujisawa Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. nodded solemnly.

"If Sinovel Labs cooperates with JieliZeneca, JieliZeneca will choose the Class BA agreement. Arnold couldn't wait to show favor to Yang Rui.

I have to say that the most sincere now is still Jielizen, and the Class BA agreement currently seems to be the most favorable agreement for Yang Rui.

Raymond, who was also determined to win, sensed the crisis, took a deep look at Arnold, and desperately turned his brain.

Yang Rui only sighed secretly in his heart.

Although Arnold tried his best to give good conditions, in Yang Rui's view, the BB agreement is the most profitable agreement.

In the first phase of clinical trial, it is true that there may be unexpected events that cause one or even two active substances to fail, but the probability of that is really not high. After all, it is a safety experiment that only a few dozen people have participated in, and the compound is no problem, at most, it will cause an allergic reaction in some people, as long as it is not serious, it can still pass. Drugs that do not have allergic reactions at all are basically non-existent.

Yang Rui really wants to bet with Jielikang, and he is more willing to bet on BB agreements.

On the other hand, Arnold looked like a strong man who was killed by the neck, and Yang Rui couldn't cry or laugh when he saw it.

"Let's ...... next"

"Comrade, have some tea. The owner of the boiled shop brought a pot of tea, refilled the big teacup in front of Yang Rui, interrupted his words, and whispered at the same time: "Comrade, it's okay, drink less wine, don't quarrel, if you do this again, the people from the neighborhood committee will come to talk." ”

He pouted back.

Yang Rui looked back, and sure enough, he saw the aunt of the neighborhood committee with a red armband, who was standing in front of the tofu stall not far from here, looking at this side with fierce eyes.

Yang Rui is sure that if it weren't for the fact that all the foreigners were sitting at this table, the aunt of the neighborhood committee would have already rushed over.

"It's okay, we're just talking. Yang Rui laughed twice.

The owner of the stewed boil shop said "oh", and then told "then you should be quiet", so he carried the tea kettle and went to the tofu stall to report.

Yang Rui saw him go away, shook his head, took a sip of tea, reorganized his thinking, and continued: "How about a similar classification for the second phase of clinical trials? The milestone of one pass is 20 million US dollars, and the middle line is 3 passes, and each additional pass will increase by 10 million US dollars......

Raymond said slyly: "The budget for the second phase of a clinical trial is usually 60 million to 100 million US dollars. In this way, if two active substances pass the phase II clinical trial, we will have to pay you half of the budget. ”

"If there are two active substances that pass the phase II clinical trial, it is because the active substance of deferiprone synthesized by me is excellent, not because your clinical trials are good. Yang Rui said simply: "Milestones are used to reward and compensate for our work, not punishment." ”

"According to the maximum amount, seven compounds pass the first phase of clinical trials, and if we use category BB, we will pay 52 million ......."

"If you think there will be seven compounds that will pass Phase 1, you should go for a Class A agreement, which is only $20 million. Yang Rui raised his voice slightly.

A few people laughed.

The gambling agreement is like this, if you bet wrong, you will spend more money, and if you bet right, you will spend less.

Raymond shrugged and said, "I just wanted to talk about the possible cost." ”

"Even I couldn't think of it. Yang Rui laughed. He is sure that all of the seven compounds here have a high probability of passing the first phase of clinical trial, but the second phase of clinical trial can only pass four at most, and if you are unlucky, there are only two or even one.

Phase I and Phase II are fundamentally different concepts.

"Comrade, you were talking about money just now, right?" The aunt of the neighborhood committee walked behind Yang Rui at some time.

Yang Rui turned around in surprise and asked, "Did you understand when it came to money?"

The aunt smiled proudly and said, "English is nothing great, there are many people in our alley who know English." ”

At the mouth of the alley behind her, several red scarves swayed under the street lamp.

Yang Rui praised: "Amazing." ”

"It's you, doing business with foreigners, what are you selling?" the aunt laughed.

Yang Rui was reluctant to answer, and said, "It's nothing." ”

"There's got to be something, or I'm going to excite people. Comrade, which unit are you from. Auntie's eyes sharpened.