Chapter 60: When Will the Inflection Point Come?
In late March, the temperature has risen further, and the news that electricity consumption is tight across Japan has become the focus of many media. The central and northern parts of Honshu Island, where six nuclear power plants and more than 30 nuclear power units have been shut down, are naturally the most strained areas in the country – nuclear power accounts for 30 percent of Japan's national electricity!
In the past, it was possible to alleviate the shortage of electricity in this region through adjustment, but with the advent of the peak of electricity consumption in summer, the amount of electricity available for adjustment in other regions will become less and less, and this contradiction will naturally become acute.
Moreover, there are some "rumors" on the Internet that more than 30 nuclear power units of these six nuclear power plants have completed inspection and refurbishment, and can be put into normal power supply, but the relevant government departments have not given approval. At first, these statements circulated on a small scale on the Internet, but they quickly spread. Within a few days, although several major Japanese media did not report on the incident, many of the small and medium-sized media that pursued performance had already mentioned the incident to a greater or lesser extent.
At the same time, as Yukio Hatoyama expected, Fang Mingyuan's warning of an earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear accident in Japan also spread among the upper class of Japanese society. At the same time, there has been a rumor that "since the beginning of Japan's history of earthquake observation, there has never been an earthquake of a magnitude higher than that of a magnitude of 7.0 or higher in the same area."
"If you still believe me, Your Excellency Prime Minister, I can tell you that a disaster will come 100%!" Fang Mingyuan said in a deep voice, "At that time, there will be people who regret not doing it at the beginning!"
Fang Mingyuan, who received the phone, also sighed a little helplessly, he also didn't expect that the tsunami that occurred in early March in his previous life had not happened in late March, and his butterfly's wings were inevitably a little too powerful, right? However, he was not worried that this disaster would disappear, for every 1.0 magnitude difference in magnitude, the energy difference was about 30 times! A 7.0-magnitude earthquake was roughly equivalent to a 34 million tons of TNT explosion, and a 9.0-magnitude earthquake was equivalent to 35 billion tons of TNT explosion!
Fang Mingyuan remembers a lot of information about this natural disaster in his previous life, for example, it caused a tsunami as high as 23 meters, for example, NASA later announced that the energy released by this strong earthquake was close to the energy consumption of the whole United States in a month, which moved the Japanese island of Honshu to the east by about 3.6 meters, the earth's axis moved by 25 centimeters, and the earth's rotation accelerated by 1.6 microseconds! For example, the Japanese Institute of Land and Geography announced that due to this strong earthquake with a magnitude of 9 on the Richter scale, the Oshika Peninsula in Miyagi Prefecture, located in the northwest of the epicenter, moved about 5.3 meters to the southeast of the epicenter, and sank about 1.2 meters at the same time, which is the largest crustal change record in Japan's observation history, and at the same time, the Korean Peninsula, which is across the sea from Japan, has also moved eastward by 5 centimeters!
How could such an astonishing amount of energy, an earthquake that caused only a little more than 0.5 meters at the level of 7.5 meters, and caused no painless damage to the Japanese mainland? I am afraid that there is not even a fraction of this energy! And the longer it drags on, the more amazing this energy will be!
"Who's calling? Sounds like Japanese?" asked Angelina, tilting her head. During Fang Mingyuan's stay in Japan, Angelina was in Europe except for a trip back to China and went to Japan to accompany Fang Mingyuan for a day, helping her father deal with the affairs of the Welf family. learned that Fang Mingyuan had returned to Huaxia, so he rushed back from Europe. She also knows a little about Fang Mingyuan's stay in Japan for so long and his sudden return to China, although it is not detailed, and she naturally has no good impression of the Japanese.
"Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, he insisted on not starting the nuclear power plants that have stopped operation, causing strong dissatisfaction among many people in the country, and now there is a lot of pressure. Fang Mingyuan shrugged and said. Although he can understand Yukio Hatoyama's current situation very well, he has more than enough heart and strength to help him in any substantive way.
"Humph!" Angelina snorted and continued, "Let's move on to Greece. ”
After entering 2011, although it has been more than a year since the outbreak of the debt crisis in Greece, the EU countries have also actively given Greece various help, and the Greek government has implemented a variety of measures to change the debt structure, but the debt crisis in Greece is still intensifying. Moreover, it has spread to Ireland, Portugal and endangers Italy and Spain.
In 2010, the yield on 10-year government bonds in Italy, Europe's third-largest economy, climbed to 6.7 per cent, and Spain's fourth-largest economy, to 6.52 per cent, both quite close to the 7 per cent bailout threshold. If this trend continues, both Italy and Spain will face the loss of the ability to repay their euro debts, that is, fall into debt crises.
Italy and Spain are no more important in the EU than Greece, Portugal, and Ireland, and although the three countries are in a debt crisis, the economy is sluggish, the fiscal deficit is high, and they are unable to repay their high debts, but the total economic output of the three countries is quite low, and together they only account for about 6 percent of the GDP of the entire euro area.
However, Italy and Spain, one is the third largest economy in the euro area, and the other is the fourth largest economy in the euro area, and the combined GDP of the two can account for more than a quarter of the GDP of the entire euro area.
As a result, investor confidence in the euro area countries has been severely impacted, the stock market and foreign exchange market have fluctuated sharply, and a large number of risk assets in the euro area have been sold off, which has made it much more difficult for these countries to issue new government bonds. Because they belong to the eurozone, these countries face difficulties that prevent them from achieving a rapid trade surplus through a rapid depreciation of the exchange rate, and it is not easy to cut domestic welfare spending, which makes it difficult to reduce the deficit and revitalize the economy.
"In 2009, Portugal's debt to GDP was only 74 percent, but last year it reached 85 percent, and this year it is expected to exceed 90 percent! Ireland is not much better, last year the economy shrank by nearly 7 percent, and the government deficit reached 11.8 percent of GDP! Even Greece, which has been vigorously rescued by various countries, has seen its debt rise by 20 percent instead of falling in more than a year, and it is already close to 130 percent, and it is estimated that it is very likely to exceed 140 percent this year!" Angelina said, "Although the situation in Spain and Italy is not as bad as a few of them, it is not optimistic. Both countries are likely to have more than 70 percent of their country's GDP this year, and unemployment has risen significantly, with Spain likely to reach 25 percent this year. ”
Although Fang Mingyuan has also been paying attention to Europe and has some understanding of the situation in these countries, when he heard Angelina's words, he still couldn't help but mourn in silence for the current situation of the five European pig countries.
But silence is silence, and he will not sympathize with these countries. The reason why they fell into this situation is also the choice of these countries themselves. In addition to vigorously developing tourism and related industries in recent years, the governments of these countries still have no substantive actions to change the single industrial and economic structure of the country when the traditional shipbuilding, automobile and other industries are gradually declining and jobs are transferred to developing countries.
Although tourism and its related industries are good, not only with less pollution, more jobs, and quite good incomes, but in the event of an economic crisis, it is easy to be the first to be affected. In such an unfavorable situation, the amount of public spending and welfare subsidies in the annual budget of these governments is still rising, and the debt crisis has become an inevitable choice.
Heaven is evil, but it is still possible to live, and it is self-inflicted...... Don't live!
Angelina told him this, of course, not to complain, the Welf family had already sprinkled their own industry as much as possible before the Greek crisis broke out, even if it was not sprinkled for a while, it was a relatively good performance enterprise, and the loss was not large. As for the industries in the rest of the countries, they are also withdrawing before the debt crisis sees the light of day. For the Welf family, Fang Mingyuan is extremely grateful. Lose less than others, and from another point of view, that is earned!
At the beginning, Fang Mingyuan and Old Welf insisted on going their own way, which still made many family members dissatisfied, but now, they are all happy one by one.
"Mingyuan, Dad, they want to hear your opinion, the negative impact of the debt crisis on the eurozone will certainly not be eliminated in a short time, but in the next two to three years, will there be an inflection point?" Angelina said. The inflection point is largely a sign that the local economy is beginning to recover, and the right timing can maximize the benefits of the Welf family. And when it comes to this timing, experts have different opinions, and they are of course the most convinced of Fang Mingyuan's vision.
"In the next two to three years?" Fang Mingyuan said thoughtfully, "I think in the next two or three years, maybe there may be an inflection point in the global economy, but the eurozone is very difficult to say." ”
"Why?" said Angelina, surprised. Now that the global economy has reached an inflection point, as the world's largest economy, there is no reason to continue to recession, right?