Chapter 61: It's still up to you

Why has the eurozone not improved after a significant inflection point in the global economy? If you were to ask 10 people this question in 2017, you might be given a list of different answers. For example, government officials are incompetent, welfare spending is not well controlled and thus becomes feeding the lazy, and the country's economic and industrial structure has not been reformed...... And so on and so forth, but there is probably one reason why these people will mention, and that is the influx of refugees into Europe!

Although most of these countries in Europe are facing the threat of aging, one of the most important ways to deal with this problem is to allow immigration. Europe's developed economy and good welfare have also become the first choice for many developing country nationals to immigrate. Note, however, that European countries need migrants, not refugees!

Although Fang Mingyuan did not live until 2017 in his previous life, in 2012, the turmoil in the Arab countries had already shown some clues, and many countries such as Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, and Syria had turmoil of various sizes.

In this lifetime, Tunisian President Ben Ali had to abandon Tunisia, a country ruled by his dictatorship for 23 years, and flew to Saudi Arabia late at night on February 25 this year for political asylum. Fang Mingyuan believes that turmoil in other countries will begin one after another.

These countries are not far from Europe, or they are across the Mediterranean, and although the Mediterranean Sea is also a "sea", for modern shipping ships, the risk of sailing in the Mediterranean Sea can be said to have been reduced to a very low level. In the event of social unrest, or even a civil war like in Syria, a large number of local people will surely be smuggled into Europe in order to survive, and European laws and public opinion will make it impossible for the government to completely close the country when dealing with refugee affairs, and the influx of millions of refugees into Europe will bring all kinds of social problems, which is enough to make European governments anxious. Social instability naturally has a strong negative impact on economic development.

Although it is said that European countries have never publicly condemned the United States in this matter, and some European countries have participated in the turmoil in these countries, it is an indisputable fact that in this matter, it is the Americans who benefit and the Europeans who are unlucky. Fang Mingyuan has always believed that this is a ploy used by the United States to hinder the continued expansion of the EU's strength and expand its influence in these countries.

The United States will not allow other countries to challenge its position in the world, and it can be said that whoever comes out will suppress whom, and there are only a handful of countries that can threaten the status of the United States in the future, and among them, once the European Union is successfully integrated, it is undoubtedly the most powerful one. Therefore, it is logical to add some blockages to the EU and create some contradictions.

Regarding these things, Fang Mingyuan had mentioned them with Old Welf and Philip before, of course, it was impossible to say them in such detail and specificity. But for Angelina, none of this was mentioned. However, Angelina is not a vase-type woman, Fang Mingyuan just clicked a few words, and he completely understood.

"I see, that is, in two or three years, you are still very unoptimistic about the economic development of the eurozone countries. The development of the family should pay attention to controlling the scale. Angelina concluded.

"Has the Rusco family been alive lately?" Fang Mingyuan filled the coffee cup in front of Angelina, and asked with a smile, although he can also connect with Europe in Japan, some things still sound more interesting in person.

"The Rusko family is already too busy to take care of themselves, if it weren't for their father, they think that they should focus on integrating the family's strength now, hum......" Angelina immediately became excited.

Standing in his office at the headquarters of Intesa Sanpaolo, he looked into the distance, and although he was still the chairman of the board of directors with a sense of dignity in the eyes of the people, those who knew him well could easily perceive the worry in his eyes and between his eyebrows.

As Angelina and Fang Mingyuan said, Italy's economic situation is very bad, and it is possible to fall into a debt crisis in the future, as the chairman of the Italian Banco de Sanpaolo and the director of the Italian Telecom Group, the third person in the Rusco family, he naturally understands that the Italian economy is now on the verge of danger.

Most directly, due to the double impact of the economic crisis and the debt crisis, although Italy has many world-renowned brands, is the third largest economy in the euro area, the world's seventh largest economic power, the world's fifth largest tourist country and a series of dazzling halos, but it cannot change a reality, that is, the living standards of the Italian people have declined significantly. According to a nationwide survey of Italian households, more than half of Italian households believe that their spending power has decreased, and more than 40 percent of the population say that they have to reduce their spending on cars, dining out and entertainment due to falling incomes.

In 2010, Italy received more than 40 million foreign tourists, with tourism revenues of more than US$24 billion, while in the 2000 years, Italy's tourism turnover exceeded US$70 billion, accounting for about 6% of GDP, and net income exceeded US$25 billion!

The deterioration of the economic situation has not only affected the living standards of the Italian people, but also seriously affected the Italian business and financial circles. There are many small and medium-sized enterprises in Italy, accounting for 98 percent of the number of enterprises, and these small and medium-sized enterprises have poor resilience in the face of the impact of the economic crisis, resulting in a large number of domestic enterprises going bankrupt or on the verge of bankruptcy, and a large number of people are unemployed. Naturally, this will also have a further impact on the Italian financial community, which is already suffering from the subprime mortgage crisis.

In 2010 alone, the Italian stock market fell, with the FTSE All Share Index falling by 14 percent and the Intesa Sanpaolo share price losing 27 percent! Investors have suffered heavy losses. Italy's Intesa Sanpaolo also posted a heavy loss of more than 4.5 billion euros in 2010, which has led to rumors that credit bureaus in the United States will downgrade its credit rating from stable to negative. This is undoubtedly another heavy blow to the Italian Bank of Intesa Sanpaolo, which is already in a state of anxiety!

Of course, Banco Intesa Sanpaolo is not the only unlucky one, as its Italian counterparts, and even their EU counterparts, are in a position to say 50 steps to laugh at it. Shares of Banco Siena Group have fallen by more than 30 percent, three Italian banks have been downgraded from stable to negative by rating agencies, and four other banks have been "threatened" by rating agencies, as are Banco Intesa Sanpaolo.

Needless to say, banks in Greece have lost more than 40 percent of their shares in Union Ireland and Bank of Ireland, BBVA and Santander in Spain have fallen more than 7 percent, the Spanish government has taken over two savings banks, and six more savings banks have entered into merger deals to face the shock together.

Even the better-performing banks in France and Germany – German banks hold more than $20 billion in Greek bonds and French banks hold more than $15 billion in Greek bonds. The Bank of France and the Bank of Germany currently hold more than $100 billion and $50 billion respectively in Italian government bonds. It is conceivable that they will face difficulties once the debt crisis expands.

Of course, the Intesa Sanpaolo Bank of Italy is not qualified to laugh at its counterparts in France and Germany, and the total amount of bonds held by the Intesa Sanpaolo Bank of Italy in Italy, Greece, Ireland, Spain and other countries has exceeded 40 billion US dollars.

And if he can't keep his position as chairman of the board of directors of Intesa Sanpaolo, then the position of director of Telecom Italia may also be lost, and his position in the Rusco family will also decline significantly, and even become a marginalized figure, and he will never have the opportunity to be the patriarch again. Bertelem let out a long sigh and returned to his desk from the window, thinking hard about what to do.

The crisis that Intesa Sanpaolo is facing now is not only a loss in performance and the inability to cash in on its bonds in a timely manner. The biggest crisis now is the signs of freezing in the European credit markets. Fears that European governments might not be able to save the banking sector in debt crisis have sparked panic among investors, leading to massive withdrawals from European banks.

The withdrawal of a large amount of capital from European banks means that the European banking sector has lower capital, higher financing costs, and a real increase in debt ratios, which will eventually lead to the real collapse of the European banking sector in the long run. Intesa Sanpaolo, a member and leader of the European banking industry, is arguably facing the same dilemma.

"Banks are reluctant to borrow with cash in hand, and investors are reluctant to invest with cash in hand!" Bertlem muttered to himself. If this happens, it is undoubtedly the worst for the banking industry. What Intesa Sanpaolo needs most now is the confidence of investors and depositors in its future development!

As long as they are confident in the future development of Intesa Sanpaolo, both the stock price and savings will remain stable and rise, and even a temporary loss in performance will not shake his position on the bank's board of directors, which is backed by the Rusco family.

But everyone understands the truth, and it is not easy to achieve this goal. He couldn't help but think of HSBC Holdings plc., although today's European banking industry can be said to be full of sorrow, but it is not without excellent people. HSBC Holdings plc is one of them, and one of the most dazzling. In 2010, HSBC Holdings plc's business in Europe also experienced a certain decline, but it still earned more than $8 billion in pre-tax profits in Europe! And, thanks to the turnaround of its North American operations, its global pre-tax profit exceeded $12.5 billion!

This performance is the envy of many banks in Europe, but for Bertelem, it is not just envy, because he knows that Fang Mingyuan also has a seat on the board of HSBC Holdings plc.

For Fang Mingyuan, Bertlem is no longer hateful, but there is still a strong worry in hatred. Now the Wolf family and the Rusco family have completed the offensive and defensive transformation, if it were not for the death of the old Welf, so that most of the Welf family's energy is now focused on the reorganization and rectification of the family business, otherwise, the Welf family will definitely not let go of this opportunity to attack the Rusco family!

Although it is said that Germany, which has also been hit by the economic crisis and focuses on the development of manufacturing, is in a much better position than Italy, which has a developed tourism industry. The industries of the two families are also all over Europe and even the world, but most of the core industries of the families are in their own countries, which determines the current situation of the two families. Moreover, most of the important allies and vassal families of the Rusco family are struggling to support themselves under the impact of the economic crisis, and they cannot give the Rusco family more help, which makes the Rusco family no longer have the ambition it had at the beginning, and there are more voices in the family who want to negotiate peace with the Welf family. If the Rusco family and the Welf family reached a peace agreement, then he would most likely become the family's substitute ghost and throw it to the Welf family, who let himself be the most active and fruitful family member to attack the Welf family at that time.

Although the patriarch is still determined, Bertelem knows very well in his heart that there is no essential difference between the war between the two families and the war between the two countries, and if it is impossible to do anything, it is not surprising that it is to bow to the Welf family to preserve the family's strength. Therefore, it is a fool to completely trust your net worth and life on the family.

And the reason why the Welf family can be where they are today is that this Fang Mingyuan must have played a vital role in it. Otherwise, how could old Welf marry his most cherished granddaughter to him without a name, and give him an extremely special position in the Welf family - the scene when old Welf and Philip handed over the patriarch flashed back to his mind.

"It's still up to you!" Bertlem whispered.

The phone on the desk rang, and the sweet voice of the secretary came, "Chairman, Mr. Wen from Huaxia will arrive at our headquarters building in five minutes." ”