Chapter 173: The Collapse of the Thai Baht Five

Tiger Fund has existed in the financial market for decades, and it can be regarded as an older fund company, and most of the banks on Wall Street have good relations, so this Treasury bond easily borrowed $2.7 billion with 90% of the loan amount. After receiving the funds, Julian Robertson, www.biquge.info the pen, called several banks that had lent to the Tiger Fund to express his gratitude and promised to take care of the business of several banks in the future.

After the sophistication was completed, he immediately gave a big order to enter the Thai baht foreign exchange market. I have to say that Julian Robertson's judgment is very accurate. Historically, around 4:30 a.m. Bangkok time (16:30 p.m. New York time), officials at the Bank of Thailand admit that they don't have any more capital to defend their currency.

When the traders of the Tiger Fund called the foreign exchange broker and said that they would raise $27 billion in trading quota, the news of the hedge fund giant's large financing soon spread to all corners of the market, and then the multinational banks with Thai baht trading business also received calls to borrow Thai baht, so the foreign exchange trading departments of commercial banks also knew about it.

The information in each circle is naturally well-informed, after all, the circle is grouped and resource sharing can make the cake bigger and share more fruits. Julian Robertson did not intend to hide the news of the Tiger Fund's entry, and entered the market in a very high-profile manner, still with a huge amount of $27 billion.

Like the Quantum Fund, Tiger Fund is one of several focuses that the market is focusing on, and its importance is not even inferior to that of Quantum Fund. In terms of quantum funds, there has been no sign of operation for a long time, and the market has begun to turn its attention to another giant, hoping to follow the Tiger Fund to operate.

Therefore, when the news of the re-entry of the Tiger Fund came out, the giants of the entire foreign exchange market who shorted the Thai baht were boiling, and they heard the signal that a new round of attack was about to be sounded, and they all became extremely active, and they began to gear up, increase leverage, and prepare to do a big job.

Of course, it is also a fallacy for some people to say that the quantum fund has no signs of operation. It's just that in the past month, Quantum Fund has not raised funds from Forex brokers. But in fact, the short position of the quantum fund has reached more than 15 billion dollars.

What are Quantum Fund and Tiger Fund? It's a hedge fund! The definition of hedge fund refers to a fund that uses financial derivatives such as financial futures and financial options to combine with financial instruments and then trades with hedging means for the purpose of profit.

The Quantum Fund currently has more than $10 billion in long positions and nearly $30 billion in short positions on its accounts. At the beginning, in order to amplify the impact of the Quantum Fund's attack on the Thai baht, the first step was to create the illusion of a surge in trading volume, so the Quantum Fund opened more than 20 billion US dollars in its secret account at the same time. Over the next few months, the long positions on the Quantum Fund's account slowly unleashed nearly $10 billion without affecting the exchange rate.

Compared with the muffled fortune of the Quantum Fund, the Tiger Fund has to stand on the bright side, otherwise he will only be able to drink soup in this currency sniper war in Southeast Asia. The huge profits gained in the Mexican peso and pound sterling sniper wars made Julian Robertson not want to give up more than 200% of the gains.

"Really? They've already made some moves, but what about the scale? "Druckenmiller had just finished the meeting when he received a call from a forex trader. On the phone, the trader who monitors the unusual volatility of the foreign exchange market can't wait to report to him about the changes in his peers. Let his heart move.

"It's huge, and it's about $1 million a minute." The trader was not clear on the phone, and in fact he could not find out more information in such a short period of time, after all, the positions of various hedge funds are top secret and will not be leaked at all. But these funds will appear in the market after all. The approximate size can be estimated.

"Well, has there been any change in the exchange rate of the Thai baht in the market?" Druckenmiller has a sense of sympathy for Tiger Fund; and a little wary, after all, peers are enemies. If Tiger Fund outperforms Quantum Fund, their investors may choose to redeem their shares and invest in Tiger Fund instead.

"It's below 27 baht!" The Thai baht exchange rate can be reflected on the chart, so traders know it very well.

"Ring......" The phone rang, Druckenmiller stopped asking, picked up the receiver and heard Soros's voice, "Stanley, smash all our long positions out." ”

Soros is old, and he usually doesn't do it too hands-on, and generally does a macro control and commands on the phone. The reason why he is calling now is because a friend in the circle called him to inform him that Julian Robertson's Tiger Fund's $27 billion big move, he really couldn't sit still.

"Okay, George!" The reason why Druckenmiller is able to become one of the world's top fund managers at a young age of more than 40 years old is because he is obedient and loyal.

"Old fellow, I've lost to you again!" After putting down the phone, Soros turned his boss's chair and muttered to the Tiger Fund office building.

Tiger funds are generally stock-based, so they are more troublesome to raise funds than quantum funds. After all, if the stock is a blue chip stock, it is too much pity to sell it when it does not rise, and if the stock is too large, the stock price will even plummet, and the gain outweighs the loss.

Soros carefully pondered the deep meaning of the Tiger Fund's action, and finally read something from the information transmitted by the market!

In fact, Soros's political mind is not simple, and later Soros fueled the "color revolution" through its "Open Society Foundation" and its predecessor "Open Society Research Institute". The "Rose Revolution" in Georgia in 2003, the "Orange Revolution" in Ukraine at the end of 2004, the revision of the constitution by the Turkish parliament, and the ouster of Mubarak in Egypt all played an important role.

There is a two-day lack of liquidity in the spot market, and there are generally two situations. First, the opponent is brewing a big counterattack; The second is that the opponent has no funds and is ready to surrender.

Soros didn't think about it before, after all, he had fought two wars in the pound and the Mexican peso, and at that time, the central banks of the two countries also played the first strategy, consuming funds from hedge funds and international funds. So this time, Soros didn't consider the second plan, after all, sniping the Thai baht is challenging a country, and the Thai baht shouldn't be captured so easily!

But after a careful analysis of the Tiger Fund's actions, as well as the government's purpose and the faces of capitalists such as Morgan and DuPont, he understands that this time the Thai baht is afraid that it will be more auspicious.

After pacing back and forth in the spacious office, Druckenmiller dialed Hong Kong: "Rodney, it's me. I just received the news that there will be a big move on the opposite side, with a large amount of money and a new offensive that could provoke a new round of attacks. In this way, the more than 10 billion positions in our account will be released behind the Tiger Fund! ”

On the other end of the line was Rodney Jones, a Hong Kong-based economist at the Quantum Fund's Asia office, who was writing an article about the idea that the main cause of the current currency crisis was not hedge funds, but the stupid Thai government. This article, like the previous publication of "Deflationary Economics: What Keynes Wanted to Say to Thailand", exonerates the moral condemnation of quantum funds.

"Okay, I'll have the managers and traders below put their positions out right away." Rodney Jones immediately agreed to his boss's suggestion, and as for the moral shackles he preached to himself, he only hehe, if you believe you, you will lose.

It is relatively easy to unilaterally short and long a country's currency or an industry, but it is a bit troublesome if you want to operate a market. Unilaterally short and long, after double opening, throw away the position in the other direction, that is, have a position, and hit the sniper force, which can be described as killing two birds with one stone.

Chicago time, as soon as the foreign exchange futures market opened in the afternoon, the price of Thai baht against the US dollar 26.53 in the morning quickly fell below 27 baht under the pressure of the Tiger Fund, just when everyone was expecting the action of the Bank of Thailand, a position of up to 100 million US dollars in Thai baht was sold out before everyone could slow down.

"27.12 baht."

"27.24 baht."

"27.35 baht."

……

"27.64 baht."

……

At 14:24 Chicago time, in just 2 minutes, the exchange rate of the Thai baht quickly plunged from 27.12 baht to 1 dollar to 27.90 baht to one dollar. Many small and medium-sized investors, Thai baht foreign exchange market makers and international investors who watched the market were stunned to see this incredible scene. Immediately, many researchers mobilized their brains, trying to find the details, and offered a strategy for the capital company they worked for.

"George, is this your response to me? It's a big deal, indeed. Julian Robertson is naturally also a big man among the people watching the market, and at the same time, Julian Robertson understands that in the market, in addition to the Tiger Fund, there is only one such fund.

"Billy, the opponent is such a big deal, we can't be stingy, the $27 billion financing line, we have a lot of bullets." Julian Robertson instructed his henchman Billy King, who was concentrating on his research.

"Yes, sir."

As long as it doesn't happen, nothing is absolute. But Julian Robertson still chose to believe in himself and in the greed of his people. He estimated that the collapse of the baht would be within two or three days.

Speaking of which, the funds in the United States in the futures market are also Tiger Fund and Quantum Fund, and most of the energy of other American banks such as Citigroup, America, First Bank and consortiums such as Morgan and DuPont is not in the foreign exchange futures market.

Why? The Thai baht is not an international currency, and the foreign exchange futures market is a small market, with benefits of more than 100 or 20 billion US dollars. In addition, banks such as Citigroup and America cannot operate financial derivatives, so the capital of banks is basically out of the futures market. Moreover, the banking tycoons such as Citigroup, America, and American Commercial Bank have set their sights on many Thai banks in Thailand, which is the big one. In addition, these European and American banks can also take advantage of their own business convenience of foreign exchange trading, plus they can absorb deposits, and there is also a bloody storm in the spot market, and the benefits obtained are no less than those obtained by the Quantum Fund and the Tiger Fund in the futures market.

Morgan, DuPont and other European and American consortia have a greater appetite, and they have set their sights on the real financial control of a country such as the Central Bank of Thailand, which is the real financial interest, compared with which the benefits obtained by Liu Si, Soros, and Julian Robertson are not worth mentioning.

Moreover, Citigroup, America, American Commercial Bank and other banks, Tiger Fund, Quantum Fund and many other funds also have many shares invested by these consortiums, so Quantum Fund and Tiger Fund can monopolize the foreign exchange futures market.

However, no one thought that the real profit in the futures market was Liu Si and Liu Dashao, who were hidden in the shadows, had the convenience of rebirth, and had foresight.