The attack on the Thai baht is divided into two markets, the spot market is the main market, and the futures market is supplemented. This is determined by the nature of www.biquge.info two, because once the Thai baht depreciates, the position sold through the spot market will immediately make a profit, while the futures market is also the same, but due to liquidity, future expectations and other issues, the actual return may not be as good as the spot market.

However, the influence of the futures market is no less than that of the spot market, because of the role of leverage, a small amount of capital can leverage ten times or even a hundred times the contract, so the price of the futures market has a huge influence on the spot market.

Moreover, with the offshore lending rate still high, the futures market has naturally become the main battlefield for international speculative funds, after all, not everyone has the right time and place like European and American banks, can absorb Thai baht deposits in Thailand, and can operate foreign exchange trading business to exchange dollars from the Bank of Thailand.

"28 baht...... 28 baht too. A cheer exploded in Liu Shengqiang's ears, and then he turned his gaze to the trend chart on the disk.

"28 baht, it seems that the Bank of Thailand is not working." Liu Shengqiang muttered. But even if he knew in his heart that the Bank of Thailand was not working at the moment, and the Thai baht should collapse, he could only watch. There is no way, Liu Si's order is that in this final stage, everyone is not allowed to meddle in this last leftovers.

The reason for this is that firstly, I really don't want to offend the capital consortium in Europe and the United States, and secondly, there is not much money in the current account, and Hong Kong still needs a sum of money to short.

"Guys, the boss has allowed you to invest your own money in this feast, and now I don't want any of you to be unable to control your desires, otherwise don't blame me for being unkind." Although Xu Gang doesn't have much work in Singapore, he has not given up the opportunity to improve. In the past six months, Xu Gang has once again exercised a good body, and bought several firearms from the Singapore black market, and his marksmanship has made great progress.

Of course, in addition to exercising and marksmanship, Xu Gang also taught himself a lot of knowledge about economics, especially the rules and influences of futures trading. Since Liu Si warned everyone in Singapore not to advocate for any trading in the final stage, Xu Gang, who has already praised himself as the most loyal subordinate of the Liu family, has rotated his subordinates and supervised more than 20 traders without relaxing for a moment.

Seeing that his subordinates were a little frightened by Xu Gang's fierce spirit, Liu Shengqiang shook his head helplessly and said, "Everyone, report the profits and losses on their respective accounts!" ”

Liu Shengqiang's words immediately relieved the embarrassment of the scene, and many traders immediately reported to Liu Shengqiang with a smile on the total profits of several accounts under their control.

"$156.1 million."

"$198,260,000."

"$173,490,000."

……

Listening to every number, Liu Shengqiang was extremely excited, so much so that Liu Shengqiang, who had been recording, used too much force to cut the paper with a pen. In the end, the current more than 100 accounts alone have reported a profit of nearly $3 billion on the account.

got the news that the account profit had exceeded 3 billion US dollars, and Liu Shengqiang couldn't wait to immediately inform Liu Si, who was far away in Hong Kong, of the news. But the sense of duty in his heart still existed, and he decided that as soon as the Singapore futures market closed, he called Liu Dashao to report the good news.

When Liu Shengqiang announced the final total profit, all the traders were stunned, 3 billion US dollars! If it was not obvious that there were only about 4 or 50 million senses per account at the beginning, then the aggregated amount was shocking.

The most important thing is that many fund accounts have not yet counted the profits of foreign exchange futures if currencies such as rupiah, ringgit, and Philippine peso depreciate. Of course, many traders are also calculating the completion of this task, how much bonus will the boss prepare for each trader?

However, it seems that the Thai baht exchange rate is basically not resisting, and the exchange rate of 28 baht to one dollar does not seem to be the end!

"28・13 baht!"

"28 to 22 baht!"

"28・41 baht!"

"28・63 baht!"

……

The exchange rate of the Thai baht against the US dollar in the foreign exchange futures market is like a point of no return, and there will be no turning back when it falls. Seeing this, the original foreign exchange market makers and hedgers in Thailand began to waver in their positions. The Quantum Fund, the Tiger Fund, international funds, and European and American banks have all begun to take advantage of the victory.

Bangkok time, Thailand, 3 a.m. Many of Thailand's top brass are not sleeping, they are considering the IMF's conditionalities, they are also waiting.

International speculators suddenly launched a fierce offensive again. There was a massive sell-off of the Thai baht in the foreign exchange market. While the intensity and scale of the attack are far from comparable to the one in May, the Bank of Thailand has no comparable foreign exchange reserves to May. The Bank of Thailand's foreign exchange reserves have fallen to the warning line of $300 million a month for imports.

Because Thailand is a major exporter, it is in a surplus position in international trade, and the standing currency reserve warning line is set very low every month. But that's exactly what happened. It shows that the current situation is very critical, even to the point of being at a critical point.

After pondering for a moment in his office, Thanon finally realized that the day was inevitable, and after figuring it out, he dialed the phone directly to the Prime Minister's office.

"Mr. Prime Minister, I'm afraid our foreign exchange reserves are no longer enough to support the fixed exchange rate system of the Thai baht." On the phone, his tone was unemotional, as if he was saying something that had nothing to do with him.

Contrary to his prediction, Prime Minister Chawari's tone was calm, with the composure of Tarzan collapsing and not changing his face, "I see, you just need to do the duties of the finance minister." ”

Last time, Lin Riguang advocated abandoning the fixed exchange rate system, but Chawali refused. Because of such a major decision, even as the prime minister, he did not dare to make a rash decision, he needed the decision of the king in the palace.

A hint of helplessness flashed in his heart, and he replied with a little bitterness, "Mr. Prime Minister, I think the sooner you give up the fixed exchange rate system, the better, after all, the central bank can no longer exhaust the last remaining reserves." The sooner the fixed exchange rate system is abandoned, the greater the vitality of the national economy will be able to retain its vitality to the maximum extent possible, and the easier it will be to recover from the financial crisis. ”

Chawalit immediately fell silent, he already knew the purpose of his call, but he still did not decide whether to immediately announce the abandonment of the fixed exchange rate system and the implementation of the floating exchange rate system, and after a long silence he said: "This matter needs time to make a decision, I will hold an emergency conference call, during which you and the economic experts should keep in touch at all times." If possible, negotiate a viable plan for economic recovery and reconstruction after the financial crisis. ”

Thanon hurriedly replied: "I will stay in the office during this time and draw up an emergency plan with the experts as soon as possible." ”

Having said that, it is clear to both sides of the current situation that there are any emergency plans and that all that remains to deal with the aftermath is to deal with the aftermath.

"Bell bell bell ......"

To tell the truth, Chawalit was reluctant to call and disturb His Majesty the King in the dead of night when the world was sleeping soundly, but now that the Thai government was on the edge of a precipice, he needed the King to decide whether to stick to the fixed exchange rate system for decades or implement a floating exchange rate system.

It was about half an hour later that the voice of the palace steward came through the receiver, "Mr. Prime Minister, disturbing other people's dreams at this time is not a funny prank!" ”

"I need to speak to His Majesty the King now, the Thai government is now on the precipice and needs His Majesty's wise leadership." The Thai government is now frowning, and Chawalit does not even have a trace of the usual respect for the palace steward in his tone.

"Mr. Prime Minister, could it be that those mud-legged people have launched another military mutiny." Hearing Chavali's answer, the palace steward was startled, thinking of that possibility, the calmness in his heart was long gone.

"Sir, the situation may be worse than that!" Chawalit is right that a military mutiny can lose many economic benefits, but this financial crisis triggered by the Thai monetary system is even more serious, which means an economic recession, with losses of up to hundreds of billions of dollars.

"Mr. Prime Minister, please wait a moment, I will go and wake up His Majesty the King immediately." The old chief steward hurriedly put down the microphone and trotted briskly towards the king's bedchamber.

No matter how much jokes and movements were made by the top level of the Thai government that night, it is not worth mentioning for the financial industries of Britain and the United States in the daytime.

The news of another large-scale attack on the Thai baht has spread throughout the market, and there are several versions of the rumors, the most reliable of which is naturally the Quantum Fund and the Tiger Fund once again led the international capital to launch an attack, and the market generally believes that this news is the most accurate.

Meanwhile, in Thailand, an emergency conference call is underway with a large number of high-level officials, including the central bank, the finance ministry and the economic aides.

"In the last three transactions, there has been a wave of selling of Thai baht in the European and American markets to varying degrees, and I believe that today's daytime offensive is what they have been planning for a long time. In the past, by gradually eating away at our foreign exchange reserves, we launched a general offensive today in order to collapse the exchange rate system in one fell swoop. He began by describing what had happened in the last few days, and then recounted the events of the day to give those who participated in the meeting a clearer understanding.

"So, how much foreign exchange reserves do we have now?" A voice interrupted him crudely, asking the central question straight to the point.

The speaker was one of the prime minister's economic advisers, Hawa Tsachhai, a professor of economics at Bangkok University and a Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania.

At the time of the first attack on the baht, the professor advocated the liberalization of the exchange rate system, which angered Chawalit for a time. But as events have progressed, the professor's position among the prime minister's economic staff has become more and more important.

At the end of the day, the Thai model captures the need of other developed regions to move capital, open up new markets, and reduce labor costs, much like the development model of other countries in Southeast Asia. In this context, the fixed exchange rate system has become the only option to attract foreign capital and rely on exports to drive economic growth.

But now, this model has come to an end.

Compared with the better investment environment and an almost endless market offered by mainland China, Southeast Asia has no advantage at all, and the decline in economic growth in recent years is obvious. When the rate of profit of capital declines, it will take the initiative to transfer to other industries, such as real estate and stock market, which have a short turnover cycle and a high rate of return, and become their new favorites.

And so the bubble was created.

What happens then is a natural thing, and when the bubble reaches a certain point, it bursts. Bursting the bubble is very simple, it is to burst the exchange rate system.

Thinking so in his heart, he didn't pause in his mouth, and quickly replied, "This number...... There is no need to keep it secret now, and at the current rate of consumption, I am afraid that it will not be able to support tomorrow's trading time. ”

Hearing this answer, there was a gasp on the other side of the phone, and it was obvious that none of the people attending the meeting expected that the situation would be so bad that they could not support it for even a day.

After the exclamation, there was a deathly silence, and after a long time, Thanon heard Hawa Chachai continue to ask: "How many positions are still open in the futures market?" ”

Selling dollars in the spot market and buying US dollar baht contracts in the futures market is a way to hedge, but later both markets were attacked, and the central bank could only protect the Thai baht in both markets at the same time, which consumed a large amount of US dollar funds, which is why foreign exchange reserves will be rapidly lost.

"Due to the underestimation of projections, there has been little closing of positions on the futures side, with at least $100 billion worth of positions currently on hand." After hearing this question, his heart sank, and his tone became unnatural.

If the depreciation of the Thai baht is announced, the futures market will immediately fall, and then these long positions will be a big burden to lose money.

Since the amount of foreign exchange reserves has always been highly classified, not many people know about it, let alone those who are low-level traders. Most of them just follow orders and are responsible for futures trading within a certain authority, and they have no access to this aspect of confidentiality at all.

"Ah......" Hawa Chachai stomped his foot and scolded angrily, "What do you want now? If you don't hurry up and let people empty all the positions, you can save a little bit is a little bit. When the position is reduced to a certain size, declare free floating! ”

There was really no better way at this time, except for Hawa Chachai, the other people who attended the meeting either kept talking or kept silent, and did not have the slightest opinion on the construction of the surname.

Thanon made a gesture, and one of the currency experts he was with at the meeting pushed the door open and arranged to close the position.

The next discussion gradually shifted to the aftermath of the free float of the baht.

"According to your estimates, if the depreciation of the baht is announced, what will be the market's reaction, or what is the expected price?" Chavali finally spoke, and before that he had only listened silently and had not given much of an opinion. But this attitude shows that Mr. Prime Minister has indirectly agreed to the free floating of the baht.

Tanon looked at several other monetary experts, and when he saw that they all nodded, he replied cautiously: "20% to 30%, the specific situation is still difficult to say, but according to our preliminary estimates, it should be within this range." ”

There was another gasp on the other end of the line.

This time, Chawalit was not silent again, and immediately asked the officials of the central bank: "If the depreciation of the Thai baht is announced, what will happen to the financial institutions in the country?" ”

"It's a very bad situation!" A cold voice replied without thinking. This is the new governor of the central bank, Kahati, who, although he has only been in office for a few days, has already made the whole economy clear.

There was another gasp, and the surprise of the conference call was too much for the attendees.

The problems of financial institutions are under the jurisdiction of the central bank, but because many financial institutions are on the verge of bankruptcy, the central bank of Thailand is currently tasked with ordering them to submit a restructuring plan within a certain period of time, depriving them of non-performing assets, etc., in an attempt to re-establish new institutions and resume the business of deposit and loan in the shortest possible time through restructuring and merger.

"What about the impact on the real economy?" Hawa Chachai said suddenly, but then he added, "I mean if there will be a financial crisis, and if so, it will be very bad!" ”

Currency crises are easy to solve, but once a financial crisis occurs, there will be problems in the blood supply system of the entire economic activity, which is extremely deadly, and the harm is even ten or a hundred times greater than that of a currency crisis.

Chavali was completely silent, and only after a long time did he say: "Close our positions in the futures market as soon as possible, preferably before 5 a.m., I hope to minimize the impact of this currency crisis as much as possible." Kahati and Tanon, the two of you come to my office, and I'll talk to you about it. Then he named a few more people, including economists, officials from the Ministry of Finance, and tax experts, presumably to discuss what would happen after the declaration of free floating.

The meeting ended in a hurry, because the deeper issues were no longer suitable for discussion.

As soon as Kahati returned to the office, he saw the deputy governor Shawang walk in angrily, shouting loudly as he walked: "Who told you to close the long position in the European and American markets?" Who granted you this right? If you don't explain it clearly, I will immediately report it to Mr. Prime Minister and let you leave tomorrow!" ”

Looking at Sawan, who was like a clown, a sadness suddenly rose in Kahati's heart, and he was half-slumped in the wide seat, not even bothering to move his hands, and only said lightly: "We don't have dollars anymore, and soon the baht will be declared free-floating." ”

This sentence was like a thunderbolt from the sky, and it suddenly smashed Sawan, who was still menacing a second ago, and saw that his face was instantly pale as paper, and his eyes were as big as copper bells, and after taking a few steps backwards with a "bang", he muttered to himself: "How is this possible? How is this possible? ”