Generally speaking, the volume of trading volume of Thai baht contracts in the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange international money market is not large, and even the two companies together with the underlying amount do not match the share of the Singapore International Financial Exchange. Pen | fun | pavilion www. ｂｉｑｕｇｅ。 This is due to the fact that investors in Europe and the United States are not interested in emerging markets, but it is also due to the fact that SIFX has a strong influence in Asian currency markets.

However, the situation is a little different now, New York time, at about 3:30 p.m., the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in the international money market on the baht contract suddenly increased. However, this part of the contract is short. As a result, the Thai baht exchange rate began to fall rapidly.

"27.33 baht!"

"28・67 baht!"

"29.41 baht!"

"30・63 baht!"

……

In less than an hour, the exchange rate that was pulled up by arbitrageurs and foreign exchange market makers was quickly suppressed. Even, in just half an hour, the exchange rate in the Thai baht futures market quickly fell below the 30 baht to one dollar mark.

And this seemingly offensive war against the Thai baht was the work of the Bank of Thailand itself, for which they closed almost $40 billion of futures positions in a quarter of an hour. Why was the Bank of Thailand able to close such a large position so quickly? Because the margin required in the foreign exchange futures market is not too much, and the exchange rate of the futures market is falling rapidly, but the exchange rate of the spot market is still around 28 baht to 1 US dollar, which gives some short-term speculators, foreign exchange market makers and other market investors an opportunity to arbitrage.

In London and Chicago, the Thai baht is quoted at a low price, while the Singapore market is higher at the close of the trading day, giving arbitrageurs the possibility to arbitrage in the mutual market and eventually pull the price to the same level. However, what they don't know is that the Bank of Thailand is ready to abandon the fixed exchange rate of the baht, that is, it is ready to depreciate.

Not to mention the sudden change in the situation on the international currency market of the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange regarding the Thai baht contract, and the tragic world of arbitrageurs. But at this time period, the international capital that originally controlled the market was a little overwhelmed, and they didn't know which one was so big. Not to mention the tiger's mouth, but also to play mysterious, this is a bit of a collective gaffe for market manipulators. They need to know the identity of this plugged foot, so for this hour, they didn't make a deal, just to find this bastard. And this also gives the Bank of Thailand the possibility of quickly closing its position!

The prevailing view in the market is that for many Asian currencies, the real-time quotes of the Singapore International Financial Exchange reflect the true trend of the Thai baht. This is also why investors such as small funds, arbitrageurs, and foreign exchange market makers who have the ability to see the Thai baht futures exchange rate depreciate so sharply are still on the cusp of the limelight.

"The Bank of Thailand has capitulated!"

At half past four o'clock in the afternoon of US time, these European and American capitalists got the exact news from the mouths of the internal staff of the central bank that the Bank of Thailand will announce that it will abandon the fixed exchange rate system and implement the floating exchange rate system during the day tomorrow.

The European and American capitalists began to sing and dance because they had won. Of course, there are many people who are in a bad mood, such as Soros and Julian Robertson. Tiger Fund has just borrowed a sum of up to $2 billion, raised more than $20 billion, ten times leverage, but the position has only reached more than $9 billion; Soros's long positions are also not finished. Of course, this has something to do with the fact that the two funds are cautious about increasing their volume, because they don't want to open positions at a low level.

European and American capital got the news, and naturally joined the ranks of shorting the Thai baht, but because American futures trading now follows daylight saving time trading hours and closes at 5 p.m., European and American capital can't absorb many positions at all.

Time ticked by minute and second, and the closure of the international currency markets in London and Chicago gave traders, researchers, and analysts who were tired for more than 10 hours or even 20 hours a few hours of rest.

At 8 o'clock in the morning in Bangkok, Thailand, due to the government's spending reduction bill, the street lights on the side of the road have been dark for several hours, and Bangkok ushered in the dawn and bustle.

Morning time, 9 o'clock sharp. As people start their day on a busy basis, Prime Minister Chawalit begins to prepare for what is destined for his political career - a televised speech and an announcement of a floating exchange rate for the baht.

July 2 was a disastrous day for Thailand, which finally ran out of $25 billion in bullets in its treasury, but to no avail, and the baht continued to plummet. Under these circumstances, Thai Prime Minister Chawalit announced on the TV news that the Thai baht would be subject to a floating exchange rate system, forcing him to abandon the 15-year-old linked exchange rate system and at the same time announcing that the interest rate would be raised from 10.5% to 12.5%.

This is tantamount to a death sentence for the baht.

What investors have to do when they get the news is to sell the Thai baht and sell the Thai stock as soon as possible!! This situation quickly spread to the spot exchange and futures markets of the Thai baht of the Singapore International Financial Exchange, which had just opened.

By a quarter of an hour at nine o'clock, the baht had plummeted by 20 percent, reaching 30 baht to one dollar, and Thailand's financial industry was in a quagmire. The fall in the baht has strengthened people's understanding of the market outlook, and the market has been filled with an atmosphere of desperation, with selling becoming the only option for investors, and many people have lost their homes overnight.

The Bank of Thailand raised its hands in surrender.

Quantum fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller admitted after the Bank of Thailand announced that it had yielded: "We have a profit!" ”

This is tantamount to saying that Soros has once again won over a country.

According to later information, only during the initial war, from Thailand alone, $2 billion was stolen from the Quantum Fund.

But the best is yet to come.

When the Bank of Thailand suddenly announced that the Thai baht would be changed to a floating exchange rate, it caused panic among the Thai people. In order to preserve its value, bank deposits were withdrawn and exchanged for gold, and local gold in Thailand soared by 7.2% overnight, and the retail price in Bangkok rose from 4,150 baht to 4,450 baht per bar. However, the Thai people's wishful thinking is often not too loud, in Soros threw out the gold bars that were purchased at a low price, the Australian government also came to help, on August 3, the Central Bank of Australia suddenly suddenly threw out a large number of gold reserves, the international gold price plummeted all the way, fell to the lowest level in 12 years, for a time, the Thai gold price fell from the peak to the trough, some self-proclaimed smart Thai futures masters in the gold futures long positions were all beaten to a violent position, straight and violently fell, did not give them any chance to cut the meat.

The Thai people were looted again, and they were completely stunned, and yesterday they just thought they had hugged a golden doll, but they didn't expect it to be a hot potato today.

It's called a slap in the face. When the left cheek was beaten, the right cheek was sent over and whipped again.

The stock market is also plummeting.

Many Thai stock investors complained: "I called my broker and asked him to sell the stock, and either the line was always busy, or no one answered, it was really damn." Someone will then say: "You are lucky, my agent has long since disappeared." ”

In Thailand, there is nothing left to invest in.

- If you have cash, depreciate; If you hold stocks, plummet; If you hold gold, go wild; If you own a property, depreciate ...... I really don't know what else is worth holding in this world.

This is a well-designed bureau.

It's an elaborate deadlock.

No matter which door you go through, it's the door of death.

Its means of operation are as follows:

For example, at the end of 1996, gold was expected to rise sharply after a successful attack. The second step is to secretly short a large number of forward contracts held before the attack on the Thai baht (estimated at about $15 billion). Due to leverage, the accumulation of a large number of forward contracts does not require much cash, allowing Soros to allocate the main capital to the spot market. The third step is to buy a small amount of weighted blue chips as a smashing stock market in the stock market; The fourth step is to borrow and lend short, and then return the stock at the bottom to earn the difference. The fifth step is to borrow a large amount of Thai Baht from a foreign bank, which can be easily borrowed because the foreign bank has a Thai baht business. Continued to short at the high level of the Thai baht, converted into US dollars, and then converted into Thai baht in US dollars at the low level, and returned to the Thai baht. The sixth step is to throw the gold when the gold is crazy, exchange it for Thai baht, and then exchange it back for gold when the gold plummets. The seventh step is to buy a long stock index short order on stock index futures and make huge profits with high leverage. The eighth step is to have some organizations and people come forward to facilitate the collapse or takeover of the Bank of Thailand in order to control its financial and monetary system, which is the most critical step and the main purpose.

In such repeated shocks, huge profits went into Soros's pocket like a surging river.

According to the Bank of Thailand source quoted by Time magazine in the United States, the Bank of Thailand lost about $5 billion in the first battle to defend the Thai baht, and in fact, far more than that.

And there are more and more people in the market who are losing a lot.

The continuous decline in the market has made many people lose their money, and some people have begun to sigh about life, and there are not a few millionaires who commit suicide.

Investors who suffered huge losses began to burn portraits of Soros on the streets, some sold cookies named after Soros, and the results turned out to be very good, and some threatened to hand over Soros to the Thai underworld and make him disappear from this world.

But the more exciting drama is yet to come, and that is when Soros's sordid dealings with foreign bank governors at the end of 1996 were about to be realized through the duo of other politicians and financiers who sang and I appeared.

On July 3, the day after the Bank of Thailand capitulated, central bank governor Rinchai said Thailand would seek help from the International Monetary Fund and the Reserve Bank of Australia to learn how to control exchange rate volatility.

This is undoubtedly to let the sheep go from the tiger's mouth to the wolf's mouth.

However, the wolf in sheep's clothing always appears in the form of grandma's charity, otherwise, this black and white drama cannot be performed.