Chapter 169: The Collapse of the Thai Baht I
Yuchang Building is located near the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in Central, and today Liu Si walked into this building with 4 bodyguards. Pen × fun × Pavilion www. biquge。 info Qin Rui already knew that his boss was going to inspect the new company, so he put down the work in his hand and ran downstairs to wait.
After saying that the real estate affairs of the 29th era came to an end, after repeatedly urging the extremely princelings to keep the Xianren Island port plan in mind, they didn't even bother with Guangguang Media, and even when they passed through Shenzhen, they didn't even bother with Penguin Company, and they passed the customs and entered the Hong Kong Island boundary.
No way, after all, now that June has come to an end, the time for the collapse of the Thai baht is only a few days, and more importantly, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index is only less than 1 month up.
Qin Rui is an outstanding graduate of the business school of the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology in 1992, and the business school of the Hong Kong University of Science Chinese and Technology is ranked sixth in the world.
After graduating, Qin Rui joined the East Asia Securities under the Bank of East Asia in Hong Kong, and because of his strong ability, he became the department manager of East Asia Securities Co., Ltd. within 4 years, which can be regarded as a successful person.
It was not until Liu Si planned to set up a fund company in Hong Kong that he resigned and joined Liu's Shun Tak Fund registered in Hong Kong as the deputy general manager under the recruitment of Morgan Parker Consulting. The position of general manager is naturally reserved for Liu Shengqiang.
Liu Si is going to short the Hang Seng Index this time in the name of Shun Tak Fund, as for why not register an offshore company? Mainly because he intends to acquire a complete financial industry chain after this financial crisis, including banks, securities companies, etc. If you want to acquire companies in these financial industries, you must need to review, among which identity verification is an important point, if you register an offshore company, the tax is reasonably avoided, but it will definitely not pass the review of the HKMA and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
A fund company registered in Hong Kong, plus the identity is a Hong Kong nationality, I think it is very good to be audited by government agencies. In order to better complete its own financial chain, it is willing to pay that tax. Another advantage is that the disclosure of Hong Kong's identity is conducive to the Liu family's foothold and influence in Hong Kong, and it is also the foundation for Liu Si to build Hong Kong into his rear base in the future.
Liu Si is in a good mood today, in addition to the fact that Hong Kong has returned to the embrace of our country after more than 100 years, another reason is that the Asian financial crisis planned by Europe and the United States is also coming soon. All that's left is to wait for the harvest! In fact, today is a day for China to celebrate. But for most countries, he's just a Tuesday, a day that still needs to work.
Liu Shengqiang led a group of subordinates, and he still stuck to his post. His boss warned himself that today is the last day, and the Thai baht is very likely to rebound, so he did not hand over the task of watching the market to his subordinates as before, but personally did not dare to stare at the changes in the Thai baht exchange rate today.
"It's up! It's up! It's up! Although there is no custom of saying important things three times in this era, a young man in the trader team, about 27 or 8 years old, exclaimed in surprise and shouted three times "It's up".
Liu Shengqiang followed the sound to look at the handicap, and immediately took a breath of cool air, just opened, the Thai baht against the US dollar appreciated from 26.63 baht to 1 US dollar, to 25.79 to one dollar. According to market practice, the price of a foreign exchange rate is usually made up of five significant figures, counted from right to left, that is, the Thai baht appreciated against the US dollar by more than 20 pips in just the moment of opening.
This is why the Thai baht has been depreciating further and further since the counterattack organized by the Thai government on May 16, and the record low of the Thai baht against the dollar has basically changed one day at a time. In this case, I don't know how many people have suffered heavy losses, and how many people have lost their families because of their lack of determination.
On May 16, the Thai baht fell to a 10-year low of $26.75 to $1.
The Bank of Thailand had to use $4 billion in foreign exchange reserves to intervene in the foreign exchange market, accounting for 20% of its total reserves.
At the same time, it appealed to the central banks of Japan, Singapore, Malaysia and the Bank of Hong Kong, hoping to intervene in the market to support the dying Thai baht. At the same time, the central bank sharply raised interest rates, making them attractive to the dollar, and capital outflows stopped.
On June 19, Thailand's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, Dr. Lim Il-kwang, and Minister of Commerce, Dr. Na Long Chae, who refuted rumors that they would never resign, submitted their resignations to Prime Minister Chaiwali, and finally the dust settled on who was the rumor-monger in the market.
Lin Riguang and Na Longcai are both non-members of the National Assembly, and in the past six months, the dream economic leadership group they formed and the members of the National Development Party led by the cabinet senior minister Chachai have often had conflicts, and it is still a mystery who made the tricks. Lim used to be the managing director and foreign minister of Bangkok Bank, the largest bank in Southeast Asia, and is familiar with financial and foreign affairs.
Lim's departure destroyed already fragile market confidence, and the Thai stock index fell to 464.77 points, the lowest point in eight years.
On June 20, Thai Prime Minister Chawali appointed Dr. Thanion, a well-known domestic economist and managing director of the Thai Military Bank, who has no political background, as the new Minister of Finance.
He holds a Ph.D. in business administration from Northwestern University, studied economics at Yokohama University in Japan, and has served in the banking industry for 20 years.
It seems that the Thai government is a knowledge-oriented government, and the people who take office and those who come out are PhDs, and they are all long-standing experts in the banking industry.
And my understanding of knowledge is the same as Lao Mao, the more knowledge, the more reactionary, no matter how much knowledge, and there is no solution, then more knowledge is actually garbage.
Knowledge is not the same as wisdom.
At critical moments, the use is not human
Extraordinary moments must be used by extraordinary people.
Extraordinary moments must be done by extraordinary means.
Reading the Romance of the Three Kingdoms, I admire Sun Quan very much, he always turns things around at critical moments, defeats the strong with the weak, and the way to success is to dare to use extraordinary people, not conventional, and use people without doubt.
The first time I saw that I was going to finish playing, I used Zhou Yu, the second time I couldn't see it, I used Lu Meng, the third time I couldn't see it, I used Lu Xun, and the fourth time I couldn't see it, I used Lu Kang.
This is the art of leadership, not only knowing how to use people, but also knowing when to use whom.
The Thai government is going further and further down the road of drowsy and drunkenness.
Guess Walit's intention to use Tanon is quite profound, in fact, it is not to use him to solve the problem, but to compromise. Thanon is a more conciliatory figure, and the opposition party can accept it, and the ruling party can accept it, so that the opposition party's shouting like flies all day long can be calmed down a lot. Even if it is messed up, then, the opposition party will not make much noise.
Ta Nong, who has a strong intellectual atmosphere, said at a press conference that he will implement Lin Riguang's fiscal and financial policies, which is tantamount to telling the Thai people that it is not Ta Nong who will clean up the mess next, but Lin Riguang, and Ta Nong is Lin Riguang in the post-Lin Riguang era. Intellectuals always prefer political struggles to solve practical matters, and at critical moments, they are afraid of taking responsibility and are playing Tai Chi with each other.
In fact, Lin Riguang's policy has proved that it has reached a dead end, and if it continues like this, it will be an even greater disaster.
On June 27, the new official took office with three fires, and the first fire was released. The Stock Exchange of Thailand suddenly announced that 16 listed financial companies had suspended their stock trading due to lack of funds, and Thailand's finance minister ordered them to suspend business for rectification, and ordered them to merge with any of the five financially powerful financial companies.
This is intended to reduce financial risks, so that financial companies have sufficient capital and live healthier.
However, foreign investors do not see it that way, and foreign financial institutions have stopped lending to Thai financial institutions one after another, so as not to become a meat bag for beating dogs and filling the bottomless hole.
The Thai authorities are facing an awkward situation: the Thai financial sector is already facing a serious situation of insufficient funds.
Soros repeats his old trick, and in order to make the market slide in the direction he wants, the only thing Soros can do next is to say a sensational word, and his words are the golden rule, the holy decree, for speculators all over the world, who have trillions of dollars of hot money in their hands.
On June 27, the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reacted to Thanon's approach, writing: "A great investor like Soros does not rule out the possibility of another 20% or more depreciation of the baht." ”
This is tantamount to a death sentence for the baht.
At a time when the Thai financial system is strapped for funds, speculators all over the world have been ordered by Soros to sell the baht and sell Thai stocks at the first time!!
Of course, in the days that followed, the baht did slowly step into the death trap. The Thai government has already had any power, and the foreign exchange bullets in its hands are either squandered, or they are replaced with the baht assets of the royal family and the family.
Even, Liu Si knows that today, that is, on July 1, 1997, the rebound of the Thai baht is a trap made by European and American capital. However, their eyes are not on the Thai government this time, but on those international funds, that is, the last step of harvesting, washing!
In fact, European and American capital controls not only the Thai stock market and the Thai baht exchange rate, but also Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, etc.