Chapter 071 The Prime Minister Calls

Since the confidential phone of the provincial party secretary's office rang, Chen Dang had been sitting on the rest sofa in the outer corridor for half an hour, and in this half hour, he helped Secretary Xiao block a member of the Standing Committee of the Provincial People's Congress and a director, and dealt with 4 calls by the way.

This member of the Standing Committee of the Provincial People's Congress is already a person who is "about to retire", and usually if Chen Dare stands in the way, he dares not to give face, but today Chen Dang only said one sentence, and the old leader of the province immediately shut up, and obediently sat on the rest sofa with Chen Dang to drink tea, and did not even dare to urge him.

What did Chen dare say? He only said one sentence: "The prime minister called and asked Secretary Xiao some questions about macroeconomic regulation and control. ”

Yes, it is true that he did not lie to him, Xiao Chen was in the office at this time, talking to the prime minister on a special confidential phone, and the topic was not about the recent trip to Taiwan, nor about the upcoming provincial and national two sessions, but about the global economic crisis that has intensified since Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy protection.

On Sunday, September 14, 2008, Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy after the Federal Reserve of America refused to provide financial support, and on the same day Merrill Lynch announced that it had been acquired by Bank of America. These two events marked the beginning of the following week's collapse in global stock markets in September 2008, with market capitalizations plummeting on Monday, September 15 and Wednesday, September 17. On September 16, AIG was downgraded for holding a number of maturing contracts that had defaulted, and the insurance group itself was in a liquidity crisis. In the event that AIG confirms that it is no longer able to find lenders willing to lend to it and save it from bankruptcy, the Fed is providing AIG with up to $85 billion in interbank credit facility at AIG's request, conditional on access to 79.9% of AIG's equity capital and the right to suspend dividends or dividends on previously issued common and preferred shares.

Since then, despite the vigorous regulation and control of various countries, especially the United States, the crisis has spread rapidly.

Huaxia's "immunity", although slightly better, is also affected by bō.

Xiao Chen first listened to the premier briefly introduce several principled opinions discussed at the executive meeting of the Government Council, and then answered the premier's first question: "Regarding the four trillion yuan, I think it will definitely be useful, but it is best not to expect too high the effect." In addition, when it comes to the proposal to expand domestic demand, I actually put forward an idea when I was at the National Development and Reform Commission, which is called new preferential policies for 'household appliances to the countryside' and 'automobiles to the countryside'. It can be given a higher discount to make it consume. ”

The prime minister was silent for a moment and asked, "Are you optimistic?" ”

Xiao Chen unexpectedly denied it: "No, although I proposed the plan, I am not very optimistic, I just said that these two methods can solve the current dilemma." ”

The prime minister sighed over there: "Isn't there a fundamental proposal?" There are some arguments from the Political Research Office, but ...... There is an argument, and you should be able to guess what the argument is. ”

Xiao Chen pondered for a moment and said: "Our Chinese economy today is like having pneumonia, according to the theory of traditional Chinese medicine, we need to use Da Liang to treat pneumonia, but if we really use Da Liang, it is likely that this patient will be directly killed, because his physique is weak, so the best way is to warm up and consolidate the foundation, and finally use Da Liang to treat pneumonia after the physique is raised." The main reason why all our macroeconomic control policies, including the financial policy itself, cannot solve the problem of bubbles and inflation is that we are treating pneumonia with Da Liang. ”

The prime minister looked very serious: "You mean to say that we are shooting too hard now?" ”

Xiao Chen released a huge bomb this time, he said: "Prime Minister, I think our current goal of macroeconomic control is probably wrong. ”

The prime minister was very surprised, he knew that Xiao Chen was a good hand at economic and reform, and the prime minister's trust in him on economic issues was not even under the political research office, so he immediately asked: "Why?" ”

Xiao Chen said very seriously: "What is the reason for the stock market and property market bubble we are currently seeing? Could it be that it is caused by the excess liquidity that we are talking about now? I'm afraid not. ”

The prime minister had already calmed down at this time and asked, "Tell me your reasons." ”

Xiao Chen said: "The overall situation in China today is very complicated, not a simple excess liquidity, I think the most impactful reason is due to the rapid deterioration of the investment and business environment of the whole country in recent years, so our entrepreneurs squeeze out the money that should be invested but not invested, and form virtual funds into the stock market and the real estate market." This is the first funding that I think is the most important: virtual money. The second fund is a large number of funds under the current large-scale ** into the property market and stock market, the third fund is the international hot money that even the people are familiar with, and the fourth fund is the savings of our people. At present, all macroeconomic control policies are aimed at the third and fourth funds. Let me give you an example, the rule that foreigners are not allowed to buy a house is for the third fund, and the problem of the second home loan is for the fourth fund, I am not saying that the third and fourth items are invalid, but our goal is wrong. Do all our policies address the first one, that is, because of the rapid deterioration of the investment business environment, a large amount of virtual funds have entered the stock market and property market? Have we regulated the phenomenon of ** money entering the property market and stock market? At present, there is no regulation of these two major funds, so our macro control is insufficient, because the direction of the funds targeted is wrong, or at least incomplete, and not all of them are in place. ”

Xiao Chen directly mentioned the word "large-area **" in the phone call with the prime minister this time, but the prime minister didn't say anything, after listening to Xiao Chen's words, he thought for a while and asked, "Is there anything else?" ”

Xiao Chen said: "There is another risk, that is, how do we regulate and control? This regulation has brought serious financial risks to our current economy, that is, it has greatly increased financial risks. ”

Xiao Chen paused and said, "I will compare the bubble phenomenon in Japan in the 90s with the bubble phenomenon in China now. Of course, the Prime Minister is aware of the Plaza Accord. Britain, Germany, France, the United States, and Japan signed the Plaza Accord, which called for the appreciation of the Japanese currency. At that time, after the Japanese government signed the agreement, it was clear that it had fallen into the trap of the United States. The reason is very simple, when the Japanese government fǔ signed, it means that the Japanese currency is about to appreciate. Then international speculators all over the world will buy the Japanese currency, because he bets that the Japanese currency will appreciate. When I was in the National Development and Reform Commission, I reminded me that we must not regard the exchange rate as an economic phenomenon, the exchange rate is not the price between currencies as defined in the textbook, it is not that simple, the exchange rate is simply a means for the politics of various countries to achieve political goals! When Japan signed the Plaza Accord, a large trade surplus due to the undervaluation of the yen, the next step was to strengthen the yen. On the day of the signing of the Japanese government, it was announced that the Japanese currency was about to appreciate among international speculators all over the world, so the inevitable result was that a large amount of international hot money entered Japan. As a result, the yen has appreciated! Can money be like a commodity? Can supply and demand be balanced after the price increases? It is impossible, it is the price of ordinary goods, but the exchange rate is not, when the exchange rate price rises, international speculators take a look, wow! If it really appreciated, it was bought again, so more money flowed into Japan, and then the Japanese dollar appreciated, and more hot money flowed into Japan, and then the Japanese dollar appreciated, and in a few years, the Japanese dollar doubled in value, almost destroying the Japanese economy. ”

"But we should pay attention to a phenomenon that we often ignore, that is, in the process of the continuous appreciation of the Japanese currency, the U.S. Treasury Department through various channels to pressure Japan to lower interest rates and ease credit, due to the results of lowering interest rates and easing credit, resulting in a flood of liquidity, Japan's major trading companies are happy to borrow money from banks, because it is easy to borrow, the interest rate is low, and it can quickly become bigger and stronger, so it has caused the surface prosperity of the Japanese economy. This superficial prosperity phenomenon is reflected in the stock market bubble, reflected in the property market is the property market bubble, and reflected in the purchase of daily necessities is inflation. Therefore, the appreciation of the yen, the stock market bubble, and inflation itself are caused by excess liquidity under pressure from the United States. I have read a lot of media reports recently, and I am quite correct in saying this issue, so I believe that the current appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, the stock market bubble, the property market bubble, and inflation should be the opposite of Japan's policy at that time, that is, raising interest rates and tightening credit. To make my opinion clear, I think they are all wrong. ”

Xiao Chen said categorically: "Because Japan's problem is excess liquidity, but today's Huaxia problem is not. What's wrong with Huaxia? According to what I just said, the cause of the bubble is basically caused by the rapid deterioration of the investment and business environment, which has squeezed out a large amount of virtual funds into the stock market and the property market to form a bubble. Due to different reasons, the macroeconomic regulation and control policies of the government must be different, but unfortunately, our current policy is to raise interest rates and tighten credit, what is the result? It further dealt a blow to the already deteriorating business environment. Interest rates have been raised by more than 6% and are still being raised in recent days. I put myself in the shoes of our entrepreneur, is he still willing to invest in such an occasion? Which manufacturing industries in China can create such high profits, the increase in bank interest rates has caused our manufacturing industry to give up investment, not to do it, to take out the money that should be invested but not invested, and to form virtual funds to speculate in stocks and buildings, so why under macroeconomic control, the more the stock price rises, the reason why the property price rises more and more is because the goal of macroeconomic control is wrong. Because the situation in Japan was different from that at that time. Our problem today is not mainly due to the bubble phenomenon caused by excess liquidity, but because of the rapid deterioration of the investment and business environment. ”

When Xiao Chen said this, he softened his tone, lowered his speed, and said slowly: "Of course, I don't deny the phenomenon of excess liquidity in China today, but the excess liquidity in China is not the main reason for the bubble in the stock market and the property market, and the real driving factor is caused by the rapid deterioration of China's investment and business environment." If we fail to recognize the economic problems and shortcomings and rashly raise interest rates and tighten the currency, what will be the result? It is with the continuous rise of interest rates that China's financial risks accumulate rapidly, and once the day reaches the unbearable, there will be a major crisis in China. Looking back at what was going on in Japan at that time, the crisis of the Japanese economy came from financial risks, that is, financial risks caused by the accumulation of liabilities due to the large amount of financial risks that Japanese companies had rapidly accumulated due to low interest rates, and the large amount of financial risks that Japanese companies had rapidly accumulated due to high debt management. What about China's economic crisis today? Part of the reason is that the interest rate is constantly rising, the currency is tightening, and the financial risk is generated, which has brought about a major crisis to the economy of our country. ”

"Do you think that the problem lies in our macroeconomic control policy, and the policy direction is wrong?" The Prime Minister asked.

Xiao Chen denied it again, saying: "The wrong direction of the policy in the short term is only a temporary trouble, and the real trouble lies in the problems of some systems." If we mainly talk about the economic aspect, it is that since the mid-90s, the concept of GDP as the key link in our local governments has created a dualistic economic phenomenon unique to China. ”

The Prime Minister asked: "Dual economy? ”

Xiao Chen snorted and said, "The media reports that our Chinese economy is overheated today, but I have asked many entrepreneurs if their lives are good?" In fact, their days are getting harder and harder day by day. No matter who he is, no matter what industry he is in, no matter where he is, he will definitely have a harder time this year than last year, and next year will definitely be sadder than this year, that's for sure. If life is so difficult, how can the economy be overheated? But our indicators indicate that the economy is overheating, so what's going on? That is because the Chinese economy is a dual economic phenomenon, the Chinese economy is overheated and overcooled at the same time, and what about those sectors? Under the concept of GDP as the key link, the relevant departments of government investment and construction are overheated, such as steel, cement, and real estate. What sector is supercooled? Most of the private enterprises are supercooled. This dualistic economic phenomenon can be said to be a unique phenomenon in the world, and may even only appear in China, and the reason for this phenomenon is the result of our local government's vigorous promotion of local construction with the concept of GDP as the key link for more than ten years. In the past ten years, our people can't afford to see a doctor, go to school, live in a house, or even retire, and some people have reported to me that they can't afford to die, so what should we do? ”

Xiao Chen sighed: "Fortunately, this situation began to be noticed after **." There are many local governments that are disemboweled, build bridges and pave roads, and they are called local construction, but in fact, they are for promotion and wealth, and many things are duplicated construction, and there is no planning for construction. At present, our assessment of cadres is based on GDP, but what is more serious is that under this assessment standard, the result of local cadres promoting construction is that our economy has produced this special dualistic economic phenomenon, that is, the departments related to construction are basically overheated, and the private enterprises that have nothing to do with construction are basically overcooled. This dualistic economic phenomenon is very similar to the 28th economic phenomenon in our stock market. Why is there a 28 phenomenon in the stock market? What is a large-cap stock? Large-cap stocks are related to our overheated sectors, for example, real estate, steel, cement and other financing banks in the past were overheated, so the 28 phenomenon in the stock market and our dual economy basically correspond to each other. Under this special dual economy, there will inevitably be two inevitable results: the first result will be the further failure of macroeconomic regulation and control, and the second result will definitely produce inflation. ”

The prime minister seemed to be planning to talk to Xiao Chen about the first cadre assessment issue, and he asked directly: "Do you think it will lead to inflation?" What is the rationale? ”

Xiao Chen sighed and said: "Let me give you an example: At the end of 2006, the bumper harvest of agricultural products, according to economic theory - of course, these theories cannot be used in China, they are all reversed - according to economic theory, the price of grain and oil should fall, right, but in January, the price of grain and oil rose, which was caused by the dual economy. How? A large number of funds have been transferred from the supercooled department to the superheated department, and all the supercooled departments lack funds, what should they do if they lack funds? The government prints money, and the result of printing money is to create full-blown inflation. Then at this time, the problem of excess liquidity came out, which made the price of grain and oil rise in January, the increase was as high as 20%, and in May, the price of pigs rose by 26%, and the price of eggs rose by 37%, until the end of the year, this increase rose from 20% to 60%, I don't know if it is the same in the whole country, but I know that Jiangdong has risen very much recently. That is to say, when we eat, we have to pay 50% more for a bite of ròu and a bite of food, and he is not like a washing machine, a TV, and it is okay to use the old one. I have to eat 3 times a day, and this increase is incredible. According to Jiangdong's current statistics, people's money for groceries should now have risen by 50%. How did such a serious inflation and the necessities of people's livelihood come about, basically the reason for the dual economy and virtual funds that I talked about. ”

Xiao Chen thought for a while and said, "Take pig ròu as an example, why has the price of pig ròu risen?" At that time, there were two reasons, the first was swine fever, in 07 years, the new century, there was a phenomenon of swine fever, which shows how the local government was derelict in its duties, and the control of swine fever could not rely on farmers. This must be the behavior of the government, and now the local government is grasping the construction, and he doesn't care much about the control of this disease, and this is why the second is the increase in the price of feed for pigs. Swine fever and the rise in pig feed prices have caused the investment and business environment of private pig entrepreneurs to deteriorate rapidly. What will the private entrepreneur who raises pigs do under the rapid deterioration of the investment business environment, he will squeeze out the money that should be invested but not invested to form virtual funds into the stock market and the property market, so we carefully study the reason for the rise in the price of pigs is that after the big pigs are slaughtered, there are no pigs, and everyone does not raise piglets. Then why don't you raise piglets? It's all the same, speculating in real estate and stocks. This is why the binary economy and virtual money lead to inflation. ”

After listening to this, the prime minister was silent for a long time, and sighed: "Don't look at GDP, we haven't thought about this situation, but if there is no indicator for the promotion of cadres, will it be more serious?" I'm afraid it will! ”