Chapter 072: Auntie's Warning

As for the economic issues, Xiao Chen is indeed very familiar with them, and because of the training in the National Development and Reform Commission, he can look at the problems at a relatively high level, but in fact, there are some situations that he is not easy to explain to the premier.

In fact, in Xiao Chen's view, in addition to the points mentioned to the premier, there are other problems in China's economy. For example, Xiao Chen has always thought that there are two vultures soaring in the Chinese sky, what do vultures do? Vultures eat carcasses. Xiao Chen believes that China's manufacturing industry is bleeding to death because of the theories he told the prime minister in front of him, and the vultures on his head fly down to eat its corpse. What are the two vultures on their heads? One is industrial capital, and the second is financial capital.

Everyone knows that Huanghai Beer is a famous brand in China, but is Huanghai Beer still a Chinese enterprise? In fact, who is the second largest shareholder of the Huanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Bureau? It is the Anheuser-Bush Company from the United States, which holds 27 percent, and as long as he buys another 4 percent of H shares, Huaxia's famous brand, Huanghai Beer, will become a foreign-funded enterprise overnight.

Xiao Chen still remembers the story of Peng Gong (Pengcheng Industrial Manufacturing). At that time, many scholars and experts expressed their indignation at this incident in the media, and the Jiangdong Provincial Government headed by Xiao Chen at that time also secretly instructed that it could not be sold, and thanks to the efforts of all parties, the phenomenon of asset loss was successfully stopped.

On what grounds did the Pengcheng magistrate at that time sell it to foreigners? It is sold to a foreigner with a negative net worth. Can a negative net worth be sold? Xiao Chen criticized Pengcheng at the time, "Do you have a little bit of economic common sense?" The value of a company does not depend on net worth, but on its ability to continue as a going concern. The value for Penggong depends on the ability to continue to make a profit in the future.

Fortunately, it was not sold, if it was sold for 100 yuan, according to Xiao Chen's understanding of the Kelly Fund or similar funds, Peng Gong would definitely be spun off or sold and made 10,000 yuan. So from the price of 100 yuan to 10,000 yuan, he can earn more than 100 times.

The Anheuser-Bush Company, which acquired Huanghai Beer, is industrial capital, and the acquisition of Peng Gong is financial capital. Xiao Chen often secretly reminded some cadres of Lu Lu to attract investment: "Do you know that Hu Lu N investment promotion has made these two vultures sweep the dying manufacturing industry in China." ”

Some cadres feel that Governor Xiao is too pessimistic, Huaxia manufacturing industry Huaxia can't do it himself, can it make money for foreigners?

At that time, Xiao Chen was like asking them and asking them to think about it, Huaxia Huaxia's enterprises can't operate, and negative profits, do you think foreigners can't operate? Underestimate others. When he acquires these so-called unprofitable manufacturing industries in China through industrial capital and financial capital, he will integrate you into the division of labor in the international industrial chain.

What is called the division of labor in the international industrial chain, that is, the real manufacturing in the international industrial chain is a dollar, and the whole industrial chain of procurement, warehousing, order processing, wholesale and retail is called soft ternary.

What is the division of labor in the international industrial chain? The essence is to rely on soft three yuan to make profits, hard one yuan and then lose a dollar, it is impossible to lose a dollar, how much money can soft three yuan make back!

Taking the toy industry as an example, the ex-factory price of a Babi doll in China is one dollar, and the retail price of Wal-Mart in the United States is 9.99 dollars, and the raw materials account for 0.65% and the production price is 0.35%. How much money can Huaxia make? A penny is remarkable. Huaxia is the laborer who exploits Huaxia, and làng spends Huaxia's resources. Selling it to the United States for such a cheap dollar, he ended up selling it to consumers at 9.9, and they swept away all the profits.

Hou Dongxiang, the former Minister of Commerce of Huaxia (who has taken office as the new secretary of the Dongchuan Municipal Party Committee), put forward his views on this phenomenon, and Xiao Chen basically agrees with his opinion, that is, Huaxia Huaxia's manufacturing process is not profitable, and Huaxia allows Americans and Europeans to enjoy Huaxia's products through Huaxia's sacrifice.

However, Xiao Chen didn't think that this matter was of any use to the Americans. Doesn't the United States know? It's so stupid to look at him, we all know that he won't know? How is that possible, don't they know that they buy for a dollar? Don't they know that the laborers in China barely make a profit? Didn't he know that the last selling price was 9.9? Then why do you continue to oppress Huaxia, raise interest rates and raise exchange rates, so that Huaxia will not make any money? Because that's what financial warfare is. The purpose is to let you go out of business, after you go out of business, the two vultures on the head of Huaxia will buy you at a cheap price and integrate them into the international industrial chain. In the hard one yuan, the cost of raw materials and manufacturing costs can save 25%. Huaxia lowered the wages of Huaxia workers and lowered the cost of raw materials, which only saved a little bit of 25% of the entire industrial chain. This pattern is something that many Chinese people have not yet recognized. Huaxia is still continuing to attract investment, and the final result is to give up Huaxia's manufacturing industry to foreigners.

In fact, this phenomenon has already happened, and many people think that Huaxia has the advantage of cheap labor, but Xiao Chenshen is worried about this!

The advantage of labor makes you hard in a dollar at most, saving up to 25% of the money, and that's it. But what about the division of labor in the whole international industry, which earns profits from the soft ternary. Last year, two foreign-funded companies came to the East, one is Spain's Zara, and the other is Sweden's H&M. 80% of Zara's production is in Europe, so why doesn't he come to China to produce it? Isn't there cheap labor in Huaxia? People don't come. Why? Because that doesn't matter! The integration of important international industries is the most important, so ZARA produces 80% of its production in Europe. His clothes are not only fashionable, fashionable, cháo flow, good texture, &m cheaper, 30% cheaper than Zara, his coat texture is good, fashion new cháo is not to mention, or the international famous film and television star Madonna designed. How much is a piece, many people don't understand, that's 500-800 a piece. You say that clothes made in Huaxia are sold so expensive, do people buy them!

Why do people enter China at such a low price? That is the division of labor in international industrialization, and people began to ask for profits from the soft ternary. He saved a lot of costs through soft ternary and gave up hard one, so that he could enter Huaxia with the highest profit and the lowest cost. This is a phenomenon that began to occur in 2007, and Xiao Chen feels that Huaxia should pay close attention to it now. If Huaxia still has any illusions about cheap labor, the situation will be very bad in the future.

For example, there are two well-known companies in Huaxia that have begun to fantasize, one is TCL, and the second is BenQ in Baodao, and these two want to engage in internationalization. How? They want to use China's cheap labor to cooperate with foreign brands and technologies, and they want to go out and internationalize. But Xiao Chen knew that following this path would not succeed.

Why? You don't have to go into the soft ternary! You can't get out of it with a hard dollar, because cheap labor can only save 25% of the money at most. Therefore, TCL cooperated and acquired Alcatel and Thomson in France, and BenQ acquired Siemens' mobile business, and a year or two later, it completely crossed the stage. Why? Can't get out! Why can't I get out? Because the company's strategy is wrong, where is the mistake, labor cost is no longer the most important! In the end, it is necessary to engage in the integration of international industries, give up the hard one, and ask for profits from the soft three, which is internationalization.

How many companies in China know this? Huaxia shouts every day to attract international investment, and then hand over the entire industrial chain of Huaxia to foreigners, and then allow them to loot Huaxia. Why is it said to be a ransack? Ask a random Chinese farmer: How do you irrigate? Farmers will tell you that before irrigation, before opening the sluices, you have to dig a ditch and divert water through the ditch to where it is needed, which is called irrigation. If you ask the farmer, what if I forget to dig a ditch? The peasants will surely scold you: you are stupid, you don't dig ditches, you open the sluices, and the flood floods the land and submerge all the fertile fields? What the peasants know, many people in China don't know.

What is internationalization? Xiao Chen's concern is that the internationalization that Huaxia is currently promoting is forgetting to dig a ditch before opening the floodgates, and Huaxia is an internationalization without a ditch. What is a ditch called? The rules of the game are called ditches. Did there be a legal rule of the game before the internationalization of China? Which industry in China has such legal rules of the game? Which industry in China is not 100% open to foreign investment! In the end, the result is that foreign capital, with its soft ternary advantages, completely invades China's fertile land like a flood in a China where there are no legal rules of the game, and this is the result of internationalization.

This phenomenon is very important, according to the US McKinsey & Company last year's prediction, in five years, foreign retail will occupy 80% of the Chinese market. Some people are very happy when they hear it! Yes, Wal-Mart, Carrefour is very good, after entering China, the lights are bright, the variety of items is complete, the service attitude is good, the price of items is low, like Carrefour, from time to time to post advertising: within a radius of 5 kilometers, if you buy the same goods cheaper, willing to use several times the price difference to make up for your losses. What a good foreign investment, what's wrong with him sweeping China! Isn't it cheaper for us to buy things?

That's an extravagant hope! Huaxia is a paradise for them, because there are never legal rules of the game. When they sweep 80% of the retail market, it will be a joint monopoly of the foreign-funded retail industry, which is to exploit consumers at the price of old goods, and to exploit producers by pressing down the purchase price, so as to rapidly expand the intermediate profits and legally remit them out of China! Just like when domestic cars were not popular, Santana also sold more than 200,000 yuan! Once the domestic car is slowly on the right track, Santana will become a commodity of tens of thousands of yuan - in fact, it is not worth the current price, if the domestic car is a little more competitive, it will not be worth the car for 50,000 yuan.

This is the future of China, because the internationalization of China is an internationalization without the rules of the game without legalization, so in the long run, it must be flooded with the fertile fields of China. And Huaxia's manufacturing industry is still in the stage of hard one yuan to profit, people have given up hard one yuan to start to soft three yuan to profit, they rely on the advantage of high profits and low cost to enter Huaxia, Huaxia will be irresistible, because Huaxia forgot to dig a ditch before internationalization, this water has nowhere to lead!

Xiao Chen had some melancholy in his arms, dialed his aunt's phone, and after greetings, Xiao Chen mentioned some of his views, auntie is a real capitalist entrepreneur, and her understanding of the capitalist system must be deeper than Xiao Chen, and it makes sense to ask her for advice.

After listening to his words, the aunt smiled slightly: "What you just talked about is industrial capital, why don't you talk about financial capital?" ”

Xiao Chen laughed: "Financial capital, who in this world now dares to talk about this in front of you, auntie?" Didn't I come to ask you? ”

Auntie smiled when she heard this: "When did you become so modest?" Hey, I don't have the word modesty here. ”

Xiao Chen had no choice but to say: "Okay, I'll talk about my opinion first, and then you can point out the problems to me." ”

Auntie chuckled: "I can't guarantee that I can point out the problem to you, I am thinking from the level of the group and the fund, and you have to consider it from the perspective of the whole country, right?" ”

Xiao Chen smiled: "It's all connected...... In my view, financial reform mainly includes exchange rate reform and bank reform. Let me first talk about the reform of banks, Huaxia and so many banks such as CCB have been listed, which companies are helping them to be consultants? Morgan, Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, ......"

The aunt smiled and said, "Hey, our Xinlan Ke is also in this matter, are you going to be defeated too?" ”

Xiao Chen didn't want to joke about this, he sighed: "These companies are also shareholders of the Central Bank of the United States, and if Huaxia wants to carry out banking reform, it is stupid to invite the shareholders of the Central Bank of the United States to be Huaxia's advisers!" Is the purpose of his advisory to make profit for us, or for the central bank of the United States? I remember that in 2000 the World Bank produced a study on banking reform. They collected more than 250 banking crises around the world in the past, and they wanted to understand how banks in various countries were reforming, and the results showed that 92 of the more than 250 banking crises could not find information, 141 times when the governments of various countries, including the United States, were helpless, 3 times they strengthened regulation, and 14 times they relaxed regulation. In other words, 90% of the cases are where the government is helpless, so the conclusion of this article is interesting: the world's organizations, including the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, major banks, and academic leaders, do not know how to reform banks. I wondered, since no one in the world knows how to reform the bank, how dare you change it? Is it so innovative? I don't think so. Moreover, the advisers are all advisers made by the shareholders of the central bank of the United States, so the advice given is restructuring and listing. ”

Xiao Chen sighed: "The restructuring and listing are very interesting, from the Northeast to Lingnan, you can see a CCB in any countryside, and its outlets are distributed so wide that many foreigners can not imagine." When I was at the National Development and Reform Commission, many of the following researchers were also CCB customers, and they told me that although CCB's service was very bad and its attitude was not good, why did he still use CCB? Because there are so many branches, that's the only reason for it. Even if we completely open up the bank and let the Huāqi Bank in, it will not be able to open so many branches. ”

My aunt agreed: "Yes, whether it is Huāqi, Morgan Stanley, or even our Xinlan, we will not open so many outlets when we go to Huaxia, and it will cost resources." ”

Xiao Chen sighed: "Yes." ”

My aunt laughed: "If you want to open as many branches as China Construction Bank, how many real estate projects do you have to rent, how much money do you have to invest in hardware and software development, and how much time you have to invest in personnel training, you know that there are no trillions of dollars that can't be done under such a trip." So standing in your hostile position, what will we American financial institutions do? We will definitely ask you to go public, as long as you go public, our bank in the United States buys 20% of your shares, and I will take 20% of the money earned by all your branches. At the same time, since the operation of banks in China is a monopoly, and monopoly operations require license fees, so why does CCB not pay license fees? Because he is a state-owned bank, he does not need to pay a license fee. After you went public, you sold to Huāqi and sold us Xinlan, why didn't Huaxia charge a license fee? In fact, Huaxia didn't know that it had to charge a license fee! Therefore, foreign banks, including Bank of America, can buy a large number of shares of CCB at the cheapest price without paying a license fee, and you only need to buy 20%, and you have to share 20% of the profits of all branches. I know what you're talking about, what's the latest result? This time, we lost a lot of money because of the U.S. subordinated debt, and our CEO proudly said this week: ChinaAMC's loss in subordinated debt is far less than ChinaAMC's investment in CCB. How much money do we make in CCB? Earned 130 billion! And what about the level of Huaxia? Huaxia's foreign exchange management invested in Blackstone in the United States under the management of Mr. Lou, and failed miserably, this is the level! Why does the United States know to do this, because the financial war has already begun. The level of financial warfare in China is about the same as that of the broadsword against foreign guns 150 years ago. If you look at the stories of Bank of America and CCB, and then look at the stories of foreign exchange investment funds and Blackstone, you will suddenly see when you compare them. Why does the United States want to force Huaxia Bank to go public, because listing is the fastest shortcut for the United States to acquire Huaxia Bank. Huaxia did as it was told! Xiao Chen, I really doubt that those of you who are leaders in economic units in China understand what economy is? ”

Xiao Chen sighed and said with a wry smile: "This is only a part, and the other reform is called the floating of the exchange rate." I've always been against this kind of reform, why? Because we don't have enough talents in this area! We may have a lot of talents in China, but in terms of foreign exchange, I can say that including myself, there is not a real expert in the 1.3 billion people in China - the Chinese experts who stay in the United States do not count. I'm very worried now, how can I dare to open the RMB floating without experts? ”

In fact, in 97, why did Soros block Asia and cause the Asian financial crisis? That's because of the asset bubble in Asia. At that time, there were four tigers in Asia, in addition to the four tigers, which were a serious threat to European and American countries, so Soros began to block the Thai baht. Because the Thai baht has just been changed to a floating exchange rate, the Asian countries, especially the four tigers, have no respite. They did not let Hong Kong go, and at the same time blocked Hong Kong. Hong Kong was also overvalued at that time, the stock market was very good, 18,000 points, the property market price rose rapidly, and it was best to block the Hong Kong dollar in the case of the appreciation of the entire asset, and they sold short Hong Kong dollars at the same time as short Hang Seng stock market futures, what is short selling? Take the stock market as an example, if I lend a stock to a securities company today and sell it at today's price of 50 yuan, and tomorrow the stock price falls to 30 yuan, and I buy it back and return the stock to the securities company, which is called short selling. Sell for 50 yuan, buy for 30 yuan, and earn 20 yuan a day. So the purpose of short selling is to bet that your stock will fall. It's the same with Forex, what is short selling? In the same way, it is the same to lend Hong Kong dollars to a financial institution and sell it, and then buy it back and return it to him tomorrow when it falls. At the same time, they shorted the Hong Kong dollar and shorted the Hang Seng Index futures, and at that time, they shorted a large number of Hong Kong dollars and sold them to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, so there was a shortage of Hong Kong dollars in the market. As a result, the bank's call rate has increased significantly, up to 280%. What would a 280% call rate do to the stock market? It was the stock price that plummeted, from 18,000 points to 6,660 points in '98, a two-thirds drop in market value. However, international speculators sold a large number of Hang Seng Index futures in advance, so they earned two-thirds of the market value, and in the end, all the people of Hong Kong paid the bill, because the stock market plummeted, and the real estate also fell sharply.

Before 2006, as long as the Hang Seng Index reached 18,000 points, it would move sharply, called Soros Zhen Dàng, which scared the people of Hong Kong at that time, thinking that they had seen a ghost. But why is it 30,000 now? Because the domestic people can't figure it out, the shareholders in Pengcheng speculated in Hong Kong stocks in large quantities through many methods, and they pulled Hong Kong stocks up. The people of Hong Kong have suffered losses, and he knows that the people in China have not suffered losses, and they don't know, they don't know! Hong Kong still has a fixed exchange rate, a linked exchange rate, and it would be even worse if he had a floating exchange rate.

So, why was China able to survive the Asian financial turmoil that was so severe at that time? Huaxia has a thick foundation and is Huaxia handsome? No, but at that time, Huaxia adopted two of the most traditional and oldest systems, one was a fixed exchange rate, and the other was the most important foreign exchange control, which protected China because of the fixed exchange rate and foreign exchange control, not because Huaxia was good and handsome.

My aunt obviously thought of this and said, "Huaxia really can't open a floating interest rate now. If you dare to open it, then international speculators want to block today's bubble in China, in fact, just like Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Hong Kong, there are bubbles everywhere, stock market bubbles, property bubbles, inflation, to block this bubble economy, like Hong Kong to sweep the wealth of China, it is not difficult, at this time, not only American speculators will move, do you think Europe, Japan, they will not move? No way. That is, like Thailand, to block the floating exchange rate, that is the best to block, even Hong Kong, which is linked to the exchange rate, can block it, let alone the floating exchange rate. And this is also the reason why the U.S. government is constantly forcing the RMB exchange rate to float. As long as the floating exchange rate is cooperated, the free entry and exit of foreign capital, coupled with the introduction of stock index futures, will make China's financial market completely under the resistance of international speculators, and all this China is basically fully equipped. So the root question: is there a bubble in Huaxia, there is! There is no inflation, there is! There are no stock index futures, soon! There is no floating exchange rate, I see that Huaxia is working hard! After the gradual efforts of the Chinese government and the Chinese people, I estimate that in the near future, Huaxia will definitely give international speculators a very good opportunity to block Huaxia! ”

When Xiao Chen heard this, he was already in a cold sweat.