Chapter 023 Copper Nine Iron Ten

"Why did you come out again?"

Looking at Ye Yiling, who was waiting behind the golden silk nanmu door, Xiao Chen couldn't help but be slightly suspicious. Ye Yiling put down the coffee cup and stood up, walked to Xiao Chen, helped him straighten his clothes, and whispered: "Second brother bragged outside, saying that he could invite you, I didn't know that he invited someone else, just thought he was having a family dinner...... None of these people have anything to do with me today. ”

Xiao Chen then understood why Ye Yiling said to let him come here for dinner, but he was waiting below, he nodded and smiled slightly: "Well, I know, they are all CEOs of real estate companies, right?" ”

"Presumably, what are you going to do with them?" Ye Yiling asked with some concern, she was not only annoyed that the second brother would cut first and then play, but also worried that Xiao Chen would not give the second brother face, and at the moment she only felt that she was caught in the middle and was in a dilemma.

Xiao Chen smiled slightly: "What is it difficult for me to deal with, I don't speak, who dares to say it?" ”

Ye Yiling was slightly stunned, and suddenly smiled. Yes, his own man, it's not a few developers who dare to ask questions casually, wait a minute, as long as he sinks his face and lets the second brother know the severity, once the second brother doesn't ask, who will dare to ask Xiao Chen? ——

Time flies, and it is late autumn in a blink of an eye.

In the golden autumn of September this year, with the strong implementation of all-round regulation and control, the property market has already been cold, developers are panicking, and the inflection point of housing prices is "the wolf is really coming"? Housing prices have fallen, many people have been looking forward to it for a long time, and many people have been afraid of it for a long time. But what should come, always comes. If the first month-on-month decline in housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in August means that the general trend is established, the official start of the decline in September is a high probability event.

"Developers who are dead may fight hard", "Many prices of real estate for sale have been loosened", "Zero down payment for buying a house", "10,000 can be worth 100,000 sincerity gold", "8.8% off for national group buying"...... Lest the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" be reduced to "Copper Nine Iron Ten", while the supply is being pushed sharply, a large price reduction is brewing.

The house price is really tǐng not to live.

In the last peak season of the property market in the most strictly regulated year in history, the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" is close to the middle game, the supply is blowing out, and the demand is either continuing to wait and see, or being disqualified from buying a house. In an era of change of "de-investment" and "pure self-use", the price reduction of the property market has become inevitable.

In the second and third weeks, the autumn real estate exhibitions in Liaodu, Hacheng, Beijing, Suixian and other regions opened one after another, and many cities such as Hengchūn also promoted the opening of the real estate exhibitions around the "Eleventh" Golden Week. What people see is the increase in supply and the dismal deals.

A total of 110 units participated in the Harbin City Housing Exhibition, which opened on September 16, involving 85 development enterprises, and more than 60,000 sets of real estate projects of participating development enterprises, covering an area of more than 680 million square meters. Among them, there are 20 new sales projects that have been newly opened, which is the largest number of new projects in the previous exhibitions.

At the Liaodu Housing Exhibition on September 15, all the houses on display were commercial residential projects, and 41 real estate development companies launched 51 high- and medium-grade real estate projects, with 13,283 commercial houses for sale.

A larger supply occurs in Heng chūn. According to statistics from Huaxia Real Estate Information Group, on September 10 and 11 alone, there were 2,436 new units of commercial housing for sale, exceeding 270,000 square meters. In August, the new supply of all commercial residential buildings was only 175,000 square meters, and the number of new units supplied was 1,668 units. The number of units transacted was 4,145 units, with a transaction area of 381,400 square meters. In other words, the new supply on the 10th and 11th alone is equivalent to 60% of the total sales of Heng Chūn last month.

This oversupply imbalance continues to widen. According to analysts at the Hengchūn branch of Huaxia Real Estate Information Group, if the supply continues to expand like this, price reductions are inevitable.

"The property market has reached the most delicate period, and large changes in house prices may occur in the near future." The analyst said.

Compared with second- and third-tier cities, the supply in first-tier cities is more severe, and Bī's near-record high inventory is becoming an "unbearable burden" for developers.

According to data from the Beijing Real Estate Transaction Management Network, after the Mid-Autumn Festival, the inventory of off-plan housing in Beijing was 74,023 units, and the inventory of existing housing was 38,134 units, with a total inventory of 112157 units. Compared with 101985 units after the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the residential inventory has risen by more than 10,000 units. According to the calculation of 1,459 commercial housing units signed in early September, the current inventory consumption of 112,000 units will take more than 25 months.

Although the supply continues to expand, the demand is unappreciative and continues to wait and see. In Beijing, Suixian and other housing exhibitions, most of them staged a virtual hot scene of "more inquiries than orders".

What cannot be ignored is that the "comprehensive purchase restriction order" in front of investors has effectively cut off the driving force of housing price rise like a sharp blade, and the housing price is linked to the career of the main local leaders, which has to a large extent inhibited the behavior of local governments from selling land and speculating in real estate for financial resources.

Throughout this round of autumn housing exhibitions, buyers from most cities such as Beijing and Suixian reported that in fact, the absolute value of housing prices has not decreased much. However, in terms of trends, price reductions are becoming more common and widening, and Far East properties are also more. In addition to relatively "traditional" preferential promotion methods such as 97% off for full purchase of houses and 98% off for loan purchases, some real estate projects with original prices have also appeared in 5 huā 8 door promotional activities such as "zero down payment for buying a house", "10,000 can be worth 100,000 sincerity gold", and "8.8% off group purchase for all". Suixian City was led by the Real Estate Association to organize an on-site discount of "1 square meter of profit", and more than 10 developers responded.

And the current price reduction is actually just the eve of a big price cut. From October to the first half of next year, more real estate companies will start to prepare for significant price cuts. "People now have nearly 4 million square meters of commercial housing inventory in their hands, and they must be dominated by running volume, and the market price is 7,000 yuan / square meter, and people start at 5,000 yuan." The person in charge of a large local real estate company in Harbin told the research cadres.

Many experts also expect that, judging from various data, the current contradiction between supply and demand in the market has reversed, and the purchase restriction has an obvious effect on demand suppression.

Lin Luofeng, president of Far East Real Estate, expects that real estate companies will usher in the first round of closures at the end of this year or early next year, and there will be more and more mergers and acquisitions.

With the deepening of regulation and control, the downward trend of mid-to-high-end apartment prices in the East is significantly amplified, and will lead to a wider range of price reduction expectations.

"Recently, there have been a lot of landlords selling real estate. Second-hand property investors are actively selling. The agent of a real estate store located in Jing'an District, Dongfang, told the research cadres. This store mainly acts as an agent for several well-known high-end properties in the center of the East, such as Zhongkai City Light, Jing'an Fengjing, and International Lido City.

According to the broker, the urgent sale of housing is mainly concentrated in Jiangsu and Zhejiang investors, a total price of more than 700 yuan of property, the bargaining space as high as 20 to 500,000 yuan. "There's no doubt that it's an absolute buyer's market right now." The broker said.

The reason for this is that the purchase restriction order and the tightening of bank credit are the most important drivers of the decline in housing prices.

"If you are not registered in the city and have already purchased two properties, then sorry, you are not eligible to buy a house except in the name of the company." Oriental Sumisho Real Estate, a salesman, explained the power of the "purchase restriction" in this way. "There are problems with buying a house in the name of the company, one is that you can't take out a loan, and the other is that once the company is cancelled, you must resell the property before, otherwise it will be equivalent to the natural death of the legal person, and there will be problems with the ownership of the property."

The tightening of bank credit has also kept some rigid homebuyers out. Li Yi, a buyer, told the research cadres that he originally planned to buy a three-bedroom and two-hall house in Zhongkai City Light, and had signed a purchase agreement with the landlord. However, in the bank's final loan review, it was found that his wife's credit card had been overdue many times, which affected her credit rating, and she borrowed 1.8 million yuan less than the previous plan. In the end, because Li Yi could not afford to pay an extra 1.8 million yuan down payment, he could only cancel the house purchase plan in default. Up to now, Li Yi's breach of contract dispute with the landlord has not been settled.

In the first-hand housing market, the downward trend of housing prices in the East has also emerged. According to the statistics of the 21st Century Real Estate Oriental Regional Market Center, from June 1 to September 20, there were 208 new commercial residential projects in Dongfang that continued to be transacted, and if you track their monthly price changes, it is found that the number of projects with a month-on-month decline in average prices has expanded from 100 in July to 114 in September (as of September 20, the same below), and the proportion of property with reduced prices accounts for 55% of the total supply. And these increased price reductions fell by more than 10% month-on-month.

The original maximum was 24,000 yuan/square meter, but now it has fallen to 17,000 yuan/square meter, which is a true portrayal of a real estate in Tongzhou, Beijing.

In September, the research cadres of the Organization Department of the CPC Central Committee visited the real estate market in many parts of the capital, and the "real fall" of housing prices became the most intuitive feeling. Although the spread of this substantial decline is intensifying, buyers do not seem to be in a hurry to sell, and the second-hand housing agency stores are crowded, and the "volume and price fall" have already made people feel a chill of autumn.

He Huade, general manager of Oriental Ruifeng of 21st Century Real Estate, said that while the price reduction of new projects is also invisibly affecting market expectations, making buyers more bearish about the market outlook. As of September 20, a total of 290,200 square meters of newly built commercial residential buildings in the city were transacted, which was only 60% of the supply level in the same period.

Poor sales are leading to a backlog of available properties in the East. According to Oriental Online Real Estate, as of yesterday, the area of first-hand residential buildings available for sale in Oriental reached 8.29 million square meters, close to a historical high, and the current stock of housing has been de-stocked for more than 13 months.

About 25 kilometers from ** to the east, it is Tongzhou Yunjingli Community, in the most popular time of the Beijing property market in the past few years, the average price of commercial housing here is about 20,000 yuan / square meter. At present, the price of second-hand houses here has mostly dropped to 15,000-16,000 yuan / square meter.

At about 10 o'clock last Sunday morning, the research cadres took Metro Line 1 in **, then reversed the Batong Line, and got off at Liyuan Station at 11 o'clock. Although there are fewer and fewer people on the way, it seems that it is not popular, but as soon as you get out of the subway entrance, it is a noisy scene of crowds, and you will enter the Yunjingli community after walking more than 200 meters to the south.

"This is the most prosperous street in the same state, with shopping, catering and various service facilities." Manager Li of the 21 World Real Estate Beijing Anxin Ruide franchise store said that at present, there is a set of special small houses in Yunjing that are in a hurry to sell, "50 square meters, 890,000 yuan, and the average price is more than 17,000 yuan per square meter, which is cost-effective." ”

"The price is so high, it's cost-effective, I heard that the average price of the house here is only 15,000-16,000 yuan." The research cadre asked as a home buyer.

"Do you know how much this house was quoted at its peak? 24,000 yuan / square meter! Now the owner is a little anxious, so he put up this price. Manager Li said.

"There are also low prices, and the average price of some houses can even reach 12,000 yuan per square meter, but the house type is often not good, and you see that there are other intermediary companies next to it, and the situation is similar."

The research cadres then visited several intermediary companies such as Lianjia, I love my home, Tianxingyuan, etc., as buyers, and learned that the situation was not the same, and the price of the house in Yunjingli community was not higher than 17,000 yuan / square meter, most of them were concentrated in 15,000-16,000 yuan / square meter, obviously the so-called "special room" was not cheap.

"When the market is at its best, the average price of houses near Tongzhou Liyuan is between 19,000 and 21,000 yuan per square meter, and on the whole, the average house price has dropped by about 5,000 yuan per square meter." A staff member of the new fashion block store of Lianjia Real Estate said. In this regard, most of the other intermediaries in the vicinity also said the same.

Through field research, the research cadres believe that from a comprehensive point of view, the houses in the pear orchard in Tongzhou, Beijing have declined substantially, with an average decline of 23.8%-26.3%, and the highest decline of individual houses has even reached nearly 30%.

About 16 kilometers southwest from **, is the Wannian Huā City real estate, it is located in the southwest of the capital outside the third ring road, the original average house price in 30,000 yuan / square meter, in the most hot time of the property market, the highest price of the house here is even reported to 35,000 yuan / square meter. In 2008, when the industry was at a low point, the average price of the project even reached around 10,000 yuan. At present, the average price of second-hand houses here is concentrated in 23,000-25,000 yuan/square meter, with an average decrease of about 16%, and the price of individual houses has dropped by 20%.

"At present, there are 21,000 yuan per square meter for special houses, 20,000 yuan and 19,000 yuan for houses in nearby affordable housing communities, and even lower." A staff member of the Lianjia real estate store said that if you want to buy it, you can consider selling it now.

However, the research cadres observed in several nearby intermediary stores, and there were very few buyers who came to consult, and only after an hour or two did someone occasionally enter the store to ask, and most of them left in a hurry, obviously waiting and seeing.

From this point of view, from far to near, the adjustment of housing prices in Beijing is spreading, and on the whole, the regulation and control policies of housing prices have been reflected.

A similar situation has also occurred in Pengcheng, Special Economic Zone, and this year's property market "Golden Nine" has defaulted. Last week, only 285 new houses were sold in Pengcheng, down nearly three percent from the previous month, hitting a new low in the year. This also means that the "Silver Ten" will become the decisive month for developers.

The "Eleventh" Autumn Fair is gradually approaching, and the decisive atmosphere of the Pengcheng property market is getting stronger and stronger.

Since September, Pengcheng has entered the market with new plates, and on last Saturday, there was even a scene of 7 disks a day.

On the same day, the research cadres went to the real estate for a field visit. Bao'an District is located in the two new projects, although the opening time is set at the end of the month, but the sales office has been renovated and began to receive visitors, the staff said frankly, "Now the impact of the purchase restriction is very great, and you can subscribe first if you don't open the market." ”

"In the past, developers were trying to cover up the market and reluctant to sell, but now they are accelerating the launch." An industry insider said.

What is striking is that after the Far East opened a low market, another real estate "big brother" Vanke also joined the battle - after the official launch of the second "Wantuan War", several buildings have been put on sale at the same time.

In September alone, the market is expected to have 25 projects open or launch new products, and the total number of new launches by the end of the year is expected to reach 10,000 sets.

"Now it's time to fight against the odds." Liu Guang, marketing director of Zhenye, said that the pressure in the first half of the year now needs to be solved urgently, and all companies have begun to take promotional measures with only one purpose, that is, to achieve this year's sales task.

The new market is fierce, and all developers dare to fight closely, and they are obviously prepared, and "price reduction promotion" has become a weapon to win.

On the 17th, a duplex hotel apartment located in Pengcheng Futian Free Trade Zone opened, and the research cadres learned at the scene that the average price of the small apartment after discount was about 30,000 yuan/square meter, and the transaction on the same day was 3,500 yuan/square meter fine decoration, and the price of adjacent small apartments was generally about 32,000.

"People's initial opening expectations were around 40,000-50,000 yuan/square meter, and the current price is undoubtedly very attractive." ”

In another real estate along the Longhua Metro, the unit price is 21,000 / square meter, and the prepayment of 50,000 yuan can be worth 150,000 yuan of the house purchase fund, and the preferential discount on the day of subscription is additional, and the average price of the first phase of the real estate is 24,000 / square meter. Just last night, the research cadres received a call from the staff of the real estate, saying that the average price could be as low as 18,500 / square meter, and the discount of 50,000 to 150,000 remained unchanged.

According to data from Midland Realty, there were 54 discounted properties in Pengcheng in September, four more than in August, of which 13,000 yuan/square meter to 23,000 yuan/square meter were the most competitive.

Price reduction is both a strategy and a reluctant choice.

Last week, the transaction of new houses in Pengcheng hit a new low in the year, with 285 units sold, down three percent from the previous month. In the same period, only 646 units were transacted in the second-hand housing market, down 15.45% month-on-month.

However, the research cadres learned in the interview that the mentality of the house viewers to buy up and not buy down began to appear again, and a house watcher from the Northeast said: "Now that many real estate projects are discounted, why am I in such a hurry?" ”

"In the past, the strong situation of sellers has been broken, and the buyer's market will gradually take shape, and the impasse in the Pengcheng property market, which has lasted for more than a year, is very likely to be broken in the near future." In the eyes of a professional property market investor, the next sales war will no longer be a small fight, and substantial price reductions can be expected.

Li Guangzhi, managing director of Centaline Real Estate South China, also said that as the end of the year approaches, the pressure on developers' sales performance has increased greatly, and they all choose to launch at this time, and the greater the density of the launch, the greater the downward pressure on housing prices.

"Wait, now is not the time to make a move." At the Suixian Housing Expo held a few days ago, Mr. Zhong suddenly dispelled the idea of buying a house now.

Mr. Chung, a native of Suixian, planned to buy a property around the National Day at the beginning of the year. From September 16th to 18th, the three-day Suixian Housing Expo was held in Area C of the Canton Fair Complex. The research cadres saw in the exhibition area that the major real estate developers were doing their best, and all kinds of discounts were dizzying.

"88% off special discount", "unlimited purchase, unlimited loan", "buy a villa, send Mercedes-Benz", "group purchase"...... In less than an hour, Mr. Zhong's bag was full of promotional materials, but the more he shopped, the more certain he became: "It's not time to buy it yet." ”

Discounts are not a unique landscape of the Housing Expo.

The research cadres recently visited a real estate for sale in Panyu District, Suixian City, and the sales consultant hurriedly introduced, "Of course, there are preferential activities, there is a 122-square-meter house, the original price is 1.77 million yuan, and now the price is 210,000 yuan." ”

According to this calculation, the discount range of the property is 88%. In addition, "there is also a 'five free' campaign. That is, the contract authentication fee, contract printing tax, other warrant fees, attorney fees and mortgage advance registration fees are exempted.

Wait-and-see is not the opinion of Mr. Zhong's family.

According to the research cadres, compared with buyers, real estate developers are more anxious. "House prices will never fall, if they fall next year, I will compensate you." A real estate developer made a surprising statement at the Housing Expo. The house viewer was more determined when he heard this, and said to the research cadre: "Hear it, the real estate developers are starting to be anxious, and I have to wait and see if they are in a hurry." ”

According to the data, in the first week, the average transaction price of the two cities in the 10th district of Suixian decreased by 12.84% from the previous week, plummeting to 10,511 yuan / square meter, nearly 10,000 yuan.

However, it is worth noting that industry insiders are still cautious about the "inflection point" of housing prices. Cao Zhuowen, an expert member of the Suixian Housing Association, said that the market state of weak transactions and stable prices will continue, and there has been no substantial price reduction in the market.

In any case, it has become a consensus that "golden nine and silver ten" is not enough. Li Wenjiang, chief market analyst of Far Eastern Real Estate, bluntly said that under the strict purchase restriction and loan restriction control policies, rich people cannot buy houses because they are restricted from purchasing, and those who have no money cannot afford to buy houses because they cannot borrow money.

"A lot of demand has been suppressed, although there are many new launches and discounted gifts, people can only look at the house and sigh. For those who buy a house for self-occupation, they want to wait for housing prices to continue to fall before making a move. Therefore, as long as the government still insists on continuing to regulate, housing prices will continue to fall. Li Wenjiang said.

At this time, in Sijiu City and Zhongnanhai, a plenary meeting of the Politburo was held again to continue to discuss the issue of housing price control.