Chapter 024 Jī argues the Politburo

In the splendid conference room of Zhongnanhai Huairen Hall, several bureaus and committees of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and several secretaries of the Secretariat of the CPC Central Committee are holding a plenary meeting of the Politburo.

"Now there is a façade that makes people feel that the fall in housing prices is 'the will of the people', but I don't think that's necessarily the case. We might as well do a bit of 'digital analysis' here. First, whether in urban or rural areas, the vast majority of households own their own real estate, and those who already own real estate do not want housing prices to fall, because the decline in housing prices is equal to the shrinkage of their assets. Second, some of the potential home buyers do not have a house and need to buy a house to live in; Some of them have housing and need to buy new houses to improve their living conditions; Some of them are poor households with low income, and they cannot afford to buy even if the housing price falls by another 50%; Some of them have already enjoyed the preferential policies of affordable housing and low-cost ancestral housing. Among the above-mentioned people, the former is eager and expecting housing prices to fall, and the more they fall, the better; The latter is less concerned about the rise and fall of house prices. On the whole, the vast majority of those who hope for stable housing prices are in the minority. However, in terms of public opinion, most of the people who own houses are silent about the rise and fall of housing prices, and those who need to buy houses speak out, so what is often heard is the call for housing prices to fall again and again, which has become the 'majority' and the 'people's will', and this 'people's will' contains a 'public opinion illusion'. On the contrary, as a livelihood issue, it is worth paying attention to, and many people are worried about rising prices due to rising housing prices, and it is also worth paying attention to. Therefore, my view is that policies at all levels should focus on development, maintain stability, take into account the overall situation, and act according to their capabilities. Recently, housing prices have fallen rapidly, which has a great impact on the local economy, and I think that the regulation and control have been basically in place, and if the regulation continues, I am afraid that it will affect the overall situation of good and rapid economic development. ”

The speaker was Xu Xiangbin, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and secretary of the Lingnan Provincial Party Committee. In the recent action of the Central Organization Department and the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection to kill the monkey, the Lingnan Provincial Party Committee almost faced the embarrassment of the removal of the mayor of the Pengcheng Special Economic Zone, and finally Xu Xiangbin personally called Xiao Chen to "beg for mercy" for the mayor, and raised the sign that "the Lingnan Provincial Party Committee may be unstable", which made Xiao Chen and Hou Dongxiang finally just hold the butcher knife high and gently put it down, and there was a drama of keeping people under the knife.

But after this incident, Xu Xiangbin finally had a trace of dissatisfaction with Xiao Chen, everyone is a member of the bureau, why don't you Xiao Chen talk to me in advance for such a big matter? Your Jiangdong Gang doesn't take our Lingnan faction seriously? Do you think Jiangdong can really surpass us Lingnan? Yes, you are in charge of the organization, this is your business, but Pengcheng is under the leadership of our Lingnan Provincial Party Committee after all, and you don't greet one, it's a bit overbearing, right? You're a bureau member, I'm not?

Xiao Chen naturally knew that these words were aimed at him, and in his current position, Xiao Chen couldn't deal with many things as before, and it was not good to hide some words. So he smiled and said: "Housing is the basic material condition needed for the people's life, in the period of rapid economic development, the continuous expansion of the scale of cities, and the large number of rural people entering the cities and towns, the state to carry out macroeconomic regulation and control, stabilize housing prices, is conducive to ensuring the basic living needs of the masses, promoting fairness, balancing the gap between the rich and the poor, mobilizing the enthusiasm of the masses, stabilizing social order, ensuring the steady and healthy development of the economy, and improving the quality of the population, which has many positive significance." ”

Xu Xiangbin frowned slightly, and smiled lightly: "Minister Xiao, let's have a meeting, don't you need to say these words?" The implication is that this kind of cliché that everyone will say, so why bother to say it at the Politburo meeting, who of you here can't say it word for word?

Xiao Chen smiled: "Secretary Xu might as well wait for me to finish speaking." ”

Xu Xiangbin waved his hand: "It's me who is rude, Minister Xiao, please speak, I will listen." ”

Xiao Chen didn't care about his tone, glanced around at the princes present, and said: "On October 29 last year, there were only two days left before the deadline for announcing the 2015 housing price control target required by the 'New National Nine Articles'. Previously, Suixian, Dongfang, Pengcheng and other places have successively announced housing price control targets, but none of them have the word 'down'. To everyone's surprise, the price control target for new housing in Beijing this year, which was announced by Jingcheng at around 10:50 p.m. on the same day: 'The price of new ordinary housing is stable and declining compared with last year. This makes Beijing the only city to have a target for a decline in house prices, rather than an increase.

At the beginning of this year, the Government Council issued the 'New National Nine Measures' real estate control measures, requiring local governments to announce their local housing price control targets to the public by the first quarter. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development recently issued a circular requiring all localities to listen to the opinions of the society in their local areas when implementing the relevant documents of the Government Council and determining the annual price control targets for new housing, so that the formulation of local regulation and control targets is scientific and reasonable, and the recognition and support of the society are obtained. Cities that have announced their annual price control targets for new housing in their regions should also listen to the opinions of the public in an appropriate manner, and adjust the published targets as appropriate according to the situation of listening to the opinions.

As the deadline approaches, many cities have reported their local housing price control targets, and although these targets are directly in response to the 'New National Nine Articles', they may still be quite different from the 'social identity'. After all, most people don't want house prices to rise more slowly, but they want them to stop rising. Secretary Xu mentioned data just now, okay, let's talk a little bit about data.

First of all, the indicators used in the regulation target do not include the housing affordability and house-price-to-income ratio of residents who are most closely related to the people. Let's make an assumption that the average price of new houses in a city is 10,000 yuan and the per capita disposable income is 3,000 yuan, even if the per capita disposable income increases by 20% and the housing price increase is controlled by 10%, the housing pressure of residents is not necessarily reduced, but aggravated. In addition, in the context of the growth rate of GDP and per capita disposable income of residents in most cities exceeding 10%, it is of little significance that the growth rate does not exceed or falls below the regulatory target of GDP growth rate and per capita disposable income of residents. Judging from the data of the Bureau of Statistics over the years, the increase in housing prices in each city can basically be controlled within 10%, for example, in 2013, the average increase in housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities in the country was 9.99%. Under the influence of the continuous increase in the supply of affordable housing this year, it is not difficult to control housing prices within 10%.

It is also in this context that Beijing's unique regulation and control goal of 'stability and decline' is naturally more in line with 'social opinions' in the social voice of 'housing prices are too high'. Obviously, although the regulatory goals of Beijing and other cities are the same in the general direction, which is to effectively control housing prices at a reasonable level, there are differences in the small goals. Other cities are allowed to continue to rise, and the capital uses 'stable and falling' to tell everyone: housing prices cannot rise again, at least to stabilize, or even decline compared with last year.

Of course, Beijing's 'stability and decline' is not a blank promise, and there are corresponding more specific means of regulation and control. For example, Beijing has proposed to raise more than 300,000 units of affordable housing through various means this year, complete 150,000 units of affordable housing, and raise more than 100,000 units of public rental housing. In terms of 'reduction', we will strictly implement various regulatory policies and measures such as purchase restrictions, differentiated credit and tax policies, and resolutely curb the demand for investment speculative housing purchases.

However, stabilizing housing prices is not an easy task, and the reasons for this are quite complex. So, whether the measures of 'stability and decline' in the capital are effective, whether the ultimate goal can be achieved, and what impact it will have on the local area after it is realized, etc., these are all worth waiting and seeing. After all, no matter what the result is, the 'stability and decline' that has won the 'social recognition' is worth paying attention to or learning from. ”

Xiao Chen said this, paused slightly, and continued: "As for what Secretary Xu just mentioned, in fact, many people don't want housing prices to be reduced, I don't agree with this, I think this is kidnapping public opinion." ”

Fortunately, the members of the Politburo are all very deep in the city government, Xiao Chen said such a sentence, everyone was just shocked in their hearts, there was no bōlan on the surface, and the only one whose face sank was Xu Xiangbin alone.

Xiao Chen didn't even look at him, and continued: "The first thing I want to say is that many people are desperately buying houses now, not because they like this price, but because they can't fight the reality of rising house prices. As for the fear of depreciation of their assets, this is also a paradox. In the end, many parents would rather eat pickled vegetables and steamed buns by themselves than let their children have less jī duck fish ròu in their bowls, and would rather drag their old and sick bodies out to squeeze the bus, and also pool money to buy sī family cars for their children...... It is said that they care about their own assets as they care about the assets of their children and grandchildren in the future. Now they are worried about whether their children will be able to live in a better house in the future, whether it will be 'demolished' like many people's homes are now - they care about this. Therefore, the decline in housing prices will not cause dissatisfaction among most of the masses. Another point, which I used to say, is that everyone throws money into the property market, what should the industry do? The decline of the real economy is the root cause of the country's economic recession, and no country relies on real estate to prop up the economy, no! I will not repeat this point, but I ask you comrades to ponder it. ”