Chapter 036 The same tone

yù Spring Hill Villa.

Xiao Zheng and Xiao Chenzheng were talking, and Xiao Zheng's confidential secretary came from the side to report: "Premier Xiao, Director Fan of the Economic Forecasting Department of the State Information Center came to report on the work, it is about the economic forecast in 06, when do you see it?" ”

Xiao Zheng sighed, looked at the wall clock, waved his hand and said, "Just now, there are so many arrangements in the back, where is there still time?" ”

The confidential secretary nodded: "Okay, I'll arrange it right away." ”

As soon as they heard this, Xiao Ning and Ye Yiling immediately got up and said in unison: "Then let's avoid it." Xiao Chen also said: "Uncle, I ...... too"

"You stay and listen, Xiao Ning, you take Yù Ling to Xiao Wan's side, pick up your mother by the way, let's go over together, Xiao Wan said today that she will cook for you personally...... What will she cook! I don't want to make this lively, I thank her, you can go to the trouble by yourself. Xiao Zheng actually made a rare joke.

Xiao Ning said with a smile: "Dad, I will definitely convey this to Xiao Wan truthfully, you just wait for her to settle accounts with you, Yù Ling, let's go." ”

Xiao Ning could make this joke, Ye Yiling naturally didn't say much, just laughed on the side, was pulled by Xiao Ning, and went out affectionately.

Xiao Chen turned around and asked, "Uncle, can I listen to this?" ”

Xiao Zheng feigned anger: "Why, I don't even have this ability to discriminate?" ”

"Hehe, look at what you said, of course I didn't mean that." Xiao Chen replied with a smile.

As he spoke, a man in his fifties, slightly fated, walked in, wearing a pair of highly rimless glasses, looking polite and polite, but indeed a researcher.

"Premier Xiao, Director Xiao...... Oh, Secretary Xiao. The visitor was slightly restrained, and greeted with a smile.

Xiao Chen laughed, this person's name is Fan Pingjin, when Xiao Chen was in the National Development and Reform Commission, I had met him a few times, but they were all at the venue, and he hadn't dealt with him much, so he could barely be regarded as a nodding friend. But he politely stood up, shook his hand, and asked him to sit down.

Xiao Chen's action made Fan Pingjin slightly surprised, which also made him more deeply aware of Xiao Chen's status in Xiao Zheng's mind, as a nephew, he could actually replace the uncle to welcome guests.

He was pondering here, and Xiao Zheng was already waving his hand over there: "Pingjin, today is going to explain next year's economic forecast, right?" ”

Fan Pingjin hurriedly retracted his thoughts and said, "Yes, Premier Xiao." Based on the comprehensive consideration of the favorable and unfavorable factors in the domestic and foreign economic environment, especially the policy needs of fully considering the first year of the implementation of the 11th Five-Year Plan, guiding the overall economic and social development with the scientific outlook on development, and striving to solve the outstanding contradictions and problems in economic operation, we have calculated the high, medium and low growth prospects of the national economy in 2006 under different environments and policy strengths. You see...... Do you want to report it now? ”

Xiao Zheng nodded: "Okay, you say, Xiao Chen should know, he used to be in the National Development and Reform Commission, and he was also responsible for development planning. ”

Fan Pingjin hurriedly said: "Know, know, with Secretary Xiao checking again, we will be more at ease." ”

Xiao Chen naturally followed with a few polite words, and then Fan Pingjin got up and said, "We have set three plans, please ask Premier Xiao and Secretary Xiao to decide." ”

"Medium scenario: GDP growth of 8.8%. The world economy continued to maintain a steady growth pattern, and there were no major emergencies affecting economic development at home and abroad. In 2006, the scale of issuance of long-term construction bonds was reduced to 60 billion yuan, the construction investment in the budget increased by 20 billion yuan over 2005, the proportion of the fiscal deficit in GDP continued to decline, and fiscal expenditure was tilted in a direction conducive to expanding consumption. The prudent monetary policy was fine-tuned in a timely manner, with the growth rate of broad money and narrow money supply reaching 16% and 15% respectively, and the scale of new loans amounting to 3 trillion yuan. Under the above conditions, the GDP will grow by 8.8 percent in 2006, 0.6 percentage points lower than that in 2005, and the economic growth rate will remain in the moderate growth range of 8 to 10 percent for five consecutive years.

Based on the consideration of the investment cycle and growth inertia, the investment in fixed assets of the whole society will continue to maintain rapid growth in 2006, and the nominal growth rate is expected to reach about 20% (the actual growth rate is about 18%). The nominal growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods is expected to reach about 13 percent, and the contribution rate of consumption to economic growth has increased. It is expected that imports and exports will increase by about 20% throughout the year, and the new trade surplus will be reduced to about 20 billion US dollars. Consumer prices rose by about 2 percent.

The characteristic of this plan is that it takes into account both the hot and cold factors that appear in the economic operation, not only guides the steady decline in investment, but also creates conditions for expanding consumer demand through the adjustment of the expenditure structure of the fiscal policy, steadily adjusts the growth rate of foreign trade imports and exports to avoid drastic fluctuations in foreign demand, can better maintain the sustainability of the economic boom, and provides a relatively relaxed economic environment for alleviating the pressure of overcapacity, speeding up structural adjustment, and deepening structural reform.

High scenario: GDP growth of 9.3%. Compared with the medium plan, the high-level plan requires that the world economic situation be better than in 2005, the fiscal and monetary policies are relatively loose, the scale of construction bonds should be maintained at 80 billion yuan, and the growth rate of money supply should be maintained at about 17 percent. Under the above conditions, the growth of investment in fixed assets is still relatively fast, the nominal growth of investment in fixed assets in the whole society has reached 23 percent, and investment still maintains a relatively large contribution rate to economic growth. Due to the relatively high economic prosperity, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 13.5 percent, and the overall level of consumer prices reached 3.2 percent. Exports increased by 21 percent, and the demand for imports of resource products rose sharply due to high economic growth, with imports increasing by 22 percent, and although imports grew faster than exports, the foreign trade surplus still reached 111.1 billion US dollars. Consumer prices rose by about 2.5 percent.

The characteristics of this program are that the economic boom continues to rise at a high level, the demand for investment drives the further recovery of consumer demand, and the pressure on employment is reduced, but the loose fiscal and monetary policies are not conducive to the transformation of the mode of economic growth and the improvement of the quality of economic growth. While most economic resources have been fully utilized, bottlenecks such as energy and transportation have been further intensified, and the pressure of overcapacity in the next stage will be increased.

Low scenario: GDP growth of 8.3%. Compared with the medium scenario, changes in the international environment have led to a significant slowdown in world economic growth. Domestic fiscal and monetary policy tightening has intensified. Under these conditions, the real GDP growth rate was 1.1 percentage points lower than in 2004. Investment in new projects has decreased significantly, and investment in fixed assets is expected to increase by about 15% in nominal terms, a decrease of 10 percentage points over the previous year; The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 12.5% in nominal terms, a slight decrease from the previous year; Due to the decline in domestic prosperity, enterprises were forced to expand exports, and the growth rate of imports declined, with exports and imports increasing by 18% and 16% respectively, and the trade surplus was as high as more than 120 billion US dollars. Due to the economic downturn, the tension in coal, electricity, oil, and transportation has been significantly eased, and consumer prices have risen by about 1.5 percent. ”

Speaking of this, Fan Pingjin paused slightly, Xiao Zheng glanced at Xiao Chen, and asked Fan Pingjin: "Is there a structural change in the impact of investment, consumption and exports on GDP?" Situation: Is the result you expected? ”

"We believe that in 2006, China's fixed asset investment will still maintain rapid growth, but it will show a steady decline in rapid growth. However, there are many favorable factors for consumer demand to maintain rapid growth, and the consumer market is stable and prosperous, which makes an increased contribution to economic growth. Favorable and unfavorable factors coexist in foreign trade, and the gap between import and export growth is expected to narrow.

Judging from the international and domestic environment and conditions, there were many favorable factors for China's economy to maintain relatively rapid growth in 2006. In particular, the upgrading of residents' consumption structure, the adjustment of industrial structure promoted by scientific and technological progress, the acceleration of urbanization, and the trend of medium-cycle growth factors of domestic demand have not changed, creating a good environment for China to continue to maintain rapid growth in 2006. ”

"Tell me about it." Xiao Zheng's answer was very succinct.

Fan Pingjin then opened the document bag, took out some documents, and said: "First, the investment in fixed assets has fallen steadily in the process of rapid growth. We expect that in 2006, China's investment in fixed assets will show a steady decline in rapid growth. In the first 10 months of 2005, the growth rate of urban fixed asset investment reached 27.6 percent. The scale of construction is still large. In the first three quarters, the scale of fixed asset investment under construction was 22.4 trillion yuan, which is equivalent to three years' workload based on the investment amount of the previous year. There has been a large increase in the number of new projects started. In the first 10 months, 147,000 new projects were started, an increase of 27,000 year-on-year, and the total planned investment was more than 5 trillion yuan, an increase of 28.5 percent. Judging from the situation of new projects started in 2005, the growth inertia of fixed asset investment is strong; In addition, in the first year of the implementation of the 11th Five-Year Plan, a number of major infrastructure construction projects will be started, and investment in fixed assets will continue to maintain rapid growth in 2006.

The reasons for the steady decline in investment in fixed assets are: First, the central authorities have not reduced their efforts to regulate and control investment in fixed assets, and in particular, the control over land is still relatively strict. Recently, the erroneous practice of 'substituting rent for expropriation' in some localities has been stopped, and after all localities have gradually digested the agricultural land that has been expropriated too quickly in the past few years, the constraints on fixed asset investment on the scale of new construction land will be more obvious this year. Second, the growth rate of medium and long-term bank loans has gradually declined. The slowdown in the growth rate of medium- and long-term loans will affect the growth rate of investment this year, especially the growth rate of real estate development investment. Third, the problem of overcapacity in the processing industry will become more prominent. Overcapacity and falling prices have significantly compressed profit margins, which will inevitably reduce the willingness of enterprises to invest and restrict the investment expansion of some industries. Fourth, the industrial transfer of foreign businessmen to China in some industries has slowed down. The decline in the amount of actually utilized foreign capital, which has been rare for many years, has had a certain restraining effect on fixed asset investment this year. ”

Xiao Zheng said "um" slightly, so Fan Pingjin continued: "Second, the consumer goods market is stable and prosperous, and its contribution to economic growth has increased. We believe that there are many favorable factors for consumer demand to maintain a relatively rapid growth in 2006. First of all, peasants' incomes have maintained relatively rapid growth for two consecutive years, and the rural consumption structure has been steadily upgraded. As the state's policy of supporting agricultural development and protecting peasants' interests has been continuously intensified, the policy of protecting grain prices is conducive to the reproduction of the situation of increasing agricultural output and income. The per capita net income of peasants is expected to increase by about 6 percent in 2005, and peasants' incomes have shown a relatively rapid growth rate for two consecutive years, which plays an important role in changing peasants' income expectations and expanding consumption expenditures. At present, the second upgrading of the consumption structure of rural areas, which is dominated by household appliances, has expanded from the coastal areas to more and more inland areas.

Second, the income of urban residents continued to increase considerably, and the consumption of the middle-income class has become the main driving force of the urban commercial market. In 2005, some local governments raised the minimum wage standard and increased subsidies for the unemployed. In 2006, the standard for deducting expenses from individual income tax was raised from 800 yuan to 1,600 yuan, and more local governments will favor the middle and low-income people in their income policies, and the adjustment of the salary structure of civil servants will raise the income level of public employees, and will lead to the increase of the income level of the urban wage earners, which is conducive to expanding the middle-income group and tapping their potential for development-oriented consumption.

Third, the gradual improvement of the social security system is conducive to the expansion of immediate consumption. The state has paid more attention to improving the social security system. The state has introduced relatively strict measures to curb high fees and fees for education, and some cities have introduced a policy of free compulsory education for primary and secondary schools. The relevant departments have strengthened supervision over hospital fees, and the scope of medical co-ordination has continued to expand. The state finance will implement the monetary subsidies for housing reform, and provide monetary subsidies to those who do not meet the housing standards and those who do not have housing. With the continuous improvement and humanized design of various social security systems, residents are optimistic about the future expectations, and consumer demand will continue to be released.

Of course, consumption growth in 2006 also faced some unfavorable factors, one is affected by high oil prices and real estate control policies, automobile and housing consumption is difficult to regain the boom. Second, it is more difficult for peasants' incomes to continue to grow at a relatively rapid pace. ”

Xiao Zheng was noncommittal, took a deep seat, and asked, "What about the situation of foreign trade?" ”

"The issue of foreign trade is also the third point I want to mention, the gap between import and export growth is expected to narrow, and the trade surplus will be reduced. We believe that in 2006, the favorable factors for the development of China's foreign trade are: From the perspective of the international environment, the fundamentals of the world economy are still good, and the growth rate of world trade has accelerated. From the perspective of the domestic environment, the structure of China's export products has been continuously upgraded, and the competitiveness of export products has been significantly improved; Affected by the cooling of domestic demand, the processing and production capacity formed by investment has intensified competition in the domestic market and forced enterprises to make efforts to expand exports. In addition, with the gradual easing of structural investment overheating, the pattern of overall shortages of energy, basic raw materials, advanced technology and key equipment will lead to a gradual recovery in import growth. The positive effects of joining the WTO will be further revealed, and the enthusiasm of private enterprises in opening up the international market will be further heightened.

The main unfavorable factors are: the surplus of about 100 billion US dollars in 2005 will become the main problem facing the sustainable development of China's foreign trade, and measures will be taken to exert influence both internationally and domestically. The adjustment of the RMB exchange rate mechanism and the appreciation of the RMB will be an important factor affecting imports and exports in 2006. The tight supply of coal, electricity, oil and transportation, the continuous rise in the price of means of production in the domestic market, the increase in environmental protection pressure, the sharp increase in trade frictions, the pressure of export tax rebates and the latest measures to curb the export of 'high-energy consumption products' will have a restraining effect on China's foreign trade exports.

Considering the above factors, taking into account the influence of the base factor in 2005, China's foreign trade in 2006 will show a balanced development trend, it is expected that the annual export will increase by about 20%, the import growth of about 20%, the trade surplus of about 117 billion US dollars, the new trade surplus from 65 billion US dollars in 2005 to about 20 billion US dollars. ”

Xiao Chen suddenly said at this time: "I don't know if Director Fan expected the policy orientation of macroeconomic control?" ”

Fan Pingjin's eyes flashed with appreciation, and he hurriedly said, "Director Xiao, this question is really to the point. This year is the first year of the 11 th Five-Year Plan, and it is also a crucial year for strengthening and improving macroeconomic regulation and control and maintaining the sustained, relatively fast, and steady development of the national economy. It is necessary to maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies and continue to implement prudent fiscal and monetary policies; It is necessary to give full play to the unique functions of fiscal policy in maintaining economic growth and promoting structural adjustment and structural reform, and increase fiscal expenditure that is conducive to expanding consumption. Monetary policy should be fine-tuned flexibly and in a timely manner, and credit control should be moderately relaxed; The industrial policy focuses on resolving the contradiction of overcapacity and promoting energy conservation and consumption reduction; The price policy focuses on rationalizing the prices of resources and utilities. ”

Xiao Chen laughed: "I'm just asking, the work has to be done well by the team under the leadership of Director Fan...... So, have you already analyzed the results? ”

Fan Pingjin nodded and said, "We believe that there are four aspects of macroeconomic control policies that need attention. First, it is necessary to optimize the structure of fiscal expenditures and increase fiscal expenditures that are conducive to expanding consumption. In 2006, the focus of expanding domestic demand will be on expanding household consumption demand, and the fiscal policy should increase policy support accordingly.

First of all, we will continue to increase our support for the 'three rural' areas and promote the increase of farmers' income. First, it is necessary to continue to push forward the pilot reform of rural taxes and fees and further lighten the peasants' burdens. The second is to further improve the financial mechanism for supporting agriculture and improve the efficiency and effectiveness of supporting agriculture. Third, it is necessary to take practical measures to stabilize the market prices of agricultural materials and grain to ensure that peasants' incomes continue to increase. Fourth, it is necessary to establish and improve the financial guarantee mechanism for rural compulsory education, and actively promote the pilot reform of new rural cooperative medical care and rural medical assistance. Enhance the purchasing power of rural areas and maintain the situation of active and prosperous rural consumer goods markets.

Second, it is necessary to give full play to the function of fiscal revenue redistribution and adjust the proportional relationship between investment and consumption. The coordinated growth of investment and consumption can better promote the endogenous growth potential and quality of the economy. It is necessary to give full play to the function of finance as a means of income redistribution, first, to appropriately reduce the burden on the residents in terms of the total amount, increase financial input in compulsory education and public medical care, and reduce the excessive burden on the residents in education and medical care. Second, it is necessary to appropriately raise the income level of public employees, appropriately raise the minimum subsistence guarantee level in urban and rural areas, and conscientiously implement policies to promote employment and social security.

Third, it is necessary to maintain a rational scale of construction of treasury bonds and appropriately regulate and control the scale of investment within the budget. In 2006, in order to ensure the construction of key state projects and solve the problem of insufficient funds for social and public goods, the scale of the central fiscal deficit can be stabilized at about 300 billion yuan, and the scale of the state's long-term construction treasury bonds can be maintained at 60 billion yuan, and the scale of capital construction investment in the fiscal budget will be appropriately increased. At the same time, it is necessary to further optimize the investment structure of the funds from treasury bond projects and the investment within the central budget, and mainly invest in key infrastructure construction projects in the 11th Five-Year Plan, urban and rural infrastructure projects that are conducive to expanding the consumption of urban and rural residents, projects for the development and utilization of new energy technologies and environmental protection facilities, and infrastructure projects for rural education and medical care.

Fourth, it is necessary to speed up the reform of the tax system. The first is to speed up the legislative work of merging the income tax of domestic and foreign-funded enterprises, and coordinate domestic development and opening up to the outside world with a fair market competition environment. The second is to speed up the transformation and reform of value-added tax, and on the basis of summarizing the pilot experience in the northeast region in a timely manner, study the implementation plan for including the tax included in the scope of value-added tax deduction for new machinery and equipment of enterprises nationwide. The third is to continue to study the adjustment of consumption tax. Reduce the consumption tax rate of general skin care products, small displacement automobiles and other goods, and appropriately expand the scope of consumption tax on high-pollution and high-consumption goods. Fourth, it is necessary to study the collection of resource taxes to promote the transformation of the mode of economic growth. Fifth, choose the opportunity to introduce a fuel tax. ”

Xiao Chen still agrees with most of these plans, but he has cautious reservations about some of them, but at this time, he naturally won't elaborate, just smiled and asked, "What about the second policy?" ”

"The second policy is that monetary policy should be more flexible and fine-tuned in a timely manner, and credit control should be moderately relaxed." Fan Pingjin said; "In 2006, the monetary policy should still adhere to the 'prudent' tone, on the one hand, to maintain the support of monetary credit to the economy, to maintain the balance of aggregates, on the other hand, to further optimize the credit structure. Considering that the RMB exchange rate will continue to rise steadily and slightly, price-based tools have a certain contractionary effect on economic growth. As a loose and tight combination, quantitative tools should be moderately loose in aggregate to ensure support for economic growth. It is necessary to flexibly adopt the open market as a hedge against foreign exchange appropriations, and strive to maintain the total liquidity of the banking system as appropriate, the structure reasonable, and the basic stability of money market interest rates. Through credit policies, commercial banks should be guided to treat the loan needs of different regions, different industries, and different enterprises differently, so as to ensure that the reasonable and normal capital needs of enterprises with 'market and efficiency'; objectively view the development of the real estate industry and the changes in the real estate market, and increase credit support for ordinary commercial housing and affordable housing. On the basis of continuously improving the personal credit reporting system, vigorously develop personal consumer credit business and expand the goal of domestic consumer demand.

In terms of structural regulation and control, it is necessary to give full play to the role of 'window guidance' in optimizing the credit structure, cooperate with industrial policies, and promote economic restructuring. Enterprises and projects that are conducive to encouraging independent innovation, reducing energy and resource consumption, and increasing employment should be provided with key support. For low-level, high-energy-consuming, and high-polluting enterprises and projects, it is necessary to strictly control the supply of loans and promote the survival of the fittest.

In 2006, it is necessary to further promote the reform of state-owned commercial banks, and banks that have matured in restructuring may be given priority to be listed. Under the circumstance that social funds are generally abundant and indirect bank financing is shrinking, it is necessary to actively expand direct financing channels and develop financial markets focusing on the bond market and stock market, so as to meet the capital needs of enterprises that cannot be satisfied through bank loans. ”

Xiao Chen didn't say much about this, he is a doctor of economics, but when it comes to banking, the uncle is the most authoritative, since the uncle didn't say it, he won't say much, he knows that the bank involves many problems, even including factional issues, he, an outsider, is still a little "ignorant", or not chā mouthful.

So Xiao Chen just smiled faintly and asked, "What is the third policy?" ”

Fan Pingjin slowly let go at this time, and said: "The third policy is that the industrial policy focuses on resolving the contradiction of overcapacity and promoting energy conservation and consumption reduction. Mainly: strengthen the coordination and cooperation of industry planning, industrial policies and land, credit, environmental protection, safety and other policies, treat them differently, maintain pressure, and strictly control new projects. Adhere to the strictest land management system, continue to do a good job in cleaning up and rectifying development zones, and improve the policy for the establishment of development zones. Reasonably control medium and long-term loans, and strictly control the credit supply of over-expanded industries. It is necessary to improve the industry planning policies, and the development plans and industrial policies for the steel, electrolytic aluminum, coal, automobile and other industries that have been introduced will be strengthened and continuously improved in practice. For those that have not yet been promulgated, we will pay close attention to formulating and improving them, and introduce them as soon as possible. For projects and enterprises that do not meet the national industrial policy and market access conditions and are eliminated by the state, loans and land shall not be provided, and the environmental protection and safety supervision departments shall not go through the relevant procedures. It is necessary to strictly enforce market access and control new projects.

Continue to sort out and rectify projects under construction and proposed, distinguish between situations, and dispose of them in a classified manner. In accordance with laws and regulations, backward production capacity should be eliminated. While relying mainly on the survival of the fittest in the market, a number of small enterprises that destroy resources, pollute the environment, and do not have the conditions for safe production should be shut down in accordance with the law. It is necessary to promote technological transformation and speed up mergers and acquisitions. Encourage major technological transformation and new product projects of large iron and steel groups. Increase support for the research and development of key technologies and complete sets of equipment in the textile industry, and the construction of independent clothing brands. In accordance with market principles, with assets and resources as the link, we will encourage mergers and acquisitions in steel, cement, coal, chemical and other industries, support advantageous enterprises to become bigger and stronger, and improve industrial concentration.

We will speed up the organization and implementation of the 10 key energy-saving projects, pay close attention to the introduction of energy-saving technology policy outlines, and continue to implement differential electricity prices for high-energy-consuming industries. Study the establishment of a water-saving standard system, and promote the transformation of water-saving technologies in key industries. Strengthen the conservation and intensive use of land. Strengthen the management of raw material consumption in key industries. Study and formulate fiscal, taxation, and price policies to promote resource conservation and comprehensive utilization. Vigorously develop the circular economy, do a good job in ecological construction and pollution prevention and control. ”

Xiao Chen completely agreed with this article, nodded and said: "This one is very good, Premier Xiao, the ecological and environmental problems of our country have really come to the time when they must be grasped...... And the last one? ”

Fan Pingjin immediately replied: "The fourth is that the price policy focuses on rationalizing the prices of resources and public utilities. It is necessary to make full use of the favorable opportunity of the current low price level, gradually straighten out the prices of resource products and public utilities, and create conditions for promoting the formation of a conservation-oriented society. It is necessary to actively and steadily promote the reform of resource prices. We should further straighten out the relationship between the prices of refined oil products and reasonably arrange the prices of domestic refined oil. Deepen the reform of electricity prices, implement new measures for the management of transmission and distribution prices, and adjust the classification structure of sales prices. promote the reform of water prices and expand the scope of water resource fees; rationally adjust the prices of water conservancy projects and urban water supply; Intensify the implementation of the sewage treatment fee system. Improve the management of natural gas prices, simplify the classification of natural gas ex-factory prices, and establish a mechanism for linking natural gas and alternative energy prices to adjust. It is necessary to promote the marketization of coal prices and promote the reform of land prices.

We should continue to make great efforts to solve the problem of prices related to the vital interests of the masses, such as education, medical care, and housing. We will improve the political pricing methods and related supporting measures for drugs, carry out pilot projects for the verification of ex-factory prices of some drugs managed by the government, continue to reduce the prices of drugs under the management of the government in batches, stop the behavior of large prescriptions, inspections, and charges in medical services, and effectively reduce the burden of medical expenses on the masses. Strengthen the management of real estate prices, standardize the charging of housing sales, real estate intermediaries and property services, and regulate the prices of affordable housing and the rent of low-rent housing. ”

When Xiao Chen heard this, he emphasized: "The price of affordable housing and the rent of low-rent housing is not only a matter of price, but also the key is who to distribute it to, to whom it is sold, how to divide it, and how to sell it!" This may even be more important than the price. ”

As soon as Xiao Zheng heard this, his nephew began to peddle his concept of "everyone can afford to live in a house" again, and he Premier Xiao also wanted everyone to be able to afford a house, but the problem here is actually very complicated, and in his opinion, Xiao Chen can do it, sometimes it is too idealistic. So he said something and interrupted: "Pingjin, what do you think about the problem of consumption?" ”

Fan Pingjin had expected it and replied: "Our expectation is that the policy and environment will support the healthy growth of consumption. 2006, as the starting year of the 11th Five-Year Plan, is a critical period for building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way, and it is also a year when the state vigorously advocates energy conservation, pollution reduction, and the construction of a harmonious society, so that the people can share the fruits of rapid economic growth to the greatest extent. Under the guidance of the policy orientation of vigorously adjusting the relationship between investment and consumption and developing the economy more around consumer demand, we believe that consumer demand will maintain a good growth trend in 2006. ”

Looking at Xiao Zheng frowning slightly, Fan Pingjin immediately understood that Premier Xiao was not satisfied with such a simple answer, so he immediately said: "Among them, the main reason is that the 'Eleventh Five-Year Plan' has important guiding significance for expanding consumption. There are three important 'highlights' in the 11th Five-Year Plan: First, it is about building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way and determining that the per capita GDP in 2010 will be doubled compared with 2000; second, it is about actively expanding domestic demand, adjusting the relationship between investment and consumption, and enhancing the role of consumption in stimulating economic growth; and third, it is about rationally adjusting income distribution, focusing on raising the income level of low-income people, gradually expanding the proportion of middle-income people, and doing everything possible to increase peasant incomes. The above three aspects seem to be independent of each other, but in fact they all revolve around the central point of improving the quality and efficiency of economic growth, reducing the investment rate and increasing the consumption rate, and expanding the contribution rate of consumer demand to economic growth. Therefore, we say that the relevant content of the 11th Five-Year Plan has an important guiding and promoting role in the rapid growth of consumer demand in 2006. ”

However, when it came to this, Xiao Zheng was still not satisfied, he looked at Fan Pingjin: "What I need is a specific aspect." ”

Xiao Chen saw that Fan Pingjin was a little embarrassed, helped him, and eased the atmosphere with a smile: "Director Fan, what Premier Xiao means, for example, the public finance system, the growth of farmers' income, the income structure of urban residents, and the impact of the social security system and individual income tax reform, you should also have some expectations, right?" ”

Fan Pingjin cast a grateful look at Xiao Chen, and said again and again: "Yes, these are expected, I ...... I'll report back one by one. He quickly flipped through a few pages, glanced at them, and said, "First of all, the increasingly perfect public finance system is conducive to the growth of consumption. In 2006, the state will still adopt a prudent fiscal policy, and the amount of investment in treasury bonds will not be higher than in 2005, and even if the investment in treasury bonds will be the same as in 2005, the structure of expenditure will be more invested in rural areas, more in social security, more in social welfare undertakings, and more in transfer payments, which will be used for social development, improving people's livelihood, improving social security, and increasing support for agricultural development. The shift of fiscal expenditure to public service expenditure has a positive effect on raising the income level of urban low-income earners and peasants and improving consumption expectations. According to statistics, at present, China's rural subsistence allowance and assistance work for extremely poor households is advancing steadily, and 12 provinces and municipalities have begun to establish a rural subsistence allowance system in an all-round way. The state has also put forward the goal of covering rural areas in developed eastern areas during the 11th Five-Year Plan. Over the years, a large amount of treasury bond funds and financial funds have been invested in industry, enterprises, and other capital construction, and the establishment and improvement of the public finance system has played a very positive role in expanding consumption. ”

He paused, probably because he had predicted too much, and he turned the page to find another aspect mentioned by Xiao Chen, and said: "Farmers' incomes have maintained rapid growth for two consecutive years, and the ability to pay for the second consumption structure upgrade has increased. In 2005, China's economy continued to maintain a 5.0 percent growth rate in the primary industry, a higher growth rate than in the same period of the previous year.

In 2005, the per capita net income of peasants is expected to increase by about 6 percent, and peasants' incomes have shown rapid growth for two consecutive years, which plays an important role in changing peasants' income expectations, adjusting the consumption pattern, and updating consumption concepts. At present, the second upgrading of the consumption structure of rural areas, which is dominated by household appliances, has expanded from the coastal areas to more and more inland areas. At present, China's large and medium-sized cities such as Beijing and Shanghai are rapidly growing commercial outlets at the urban-rural interface, and the suburban rural areas are greatly affected by the industrial economy of large cities, and the pace of urbanization is greater, so the growth of farmers' income exceeds that of cities, and consumer demand is also showing a strong growth trend.

The income structure of urban residents will be fine-tuned, and the consumption of the middle and low-income classes will show an increasing trend. The sharp widening of income inequality is one of the root causes of urban consumption. In order to safeguard the interests of the low-income strata and narrow the income gap, in 2005 many local governments introduced policies and measures such as raising the minimum wage standard and raising subsidies for the unemployed, and the per capita disposable income of urban residents increased by 9.8 percent in real terms in the first three quarters of 2005, an increase of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year. In 2006, more local governments will favor low-income people in their income policies, and the income situation of low-income classes will continue to improve, and living consumption expenditure will expand accordingly. In addition, there is information that a programme for salary adjustments for civil servants will be introduced in 2006. Among the average salaries of employees in more than 10 industries across the country, the average salaries of civil servants rank in the lower middle and lower ranks. By raising the salaries of civil servants, the situation of excessive concentration of income in the high-income earners will be improved on a larger scale, which will help tap the potential of their high-level consumption. Policies to fine-tune the income structure of urban residents, such as raising the incomes of low-income and working-class earners, involve a large part of the urban population, and the contribution of rising incomes and expected improvements to consumption is immeasurable. ”

Xiao Chen said another sentence at this time: "The salary of civil servants, as far as I know, is already good, even if it is to increase, I have to calculate it carefully." ”

Fan Pingjin naturally nodded yes, but thought in his heart: This is not my old Fan's beginning, it is a matter of the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Personnel, and the Ministry of Social Security.

He then remembered that the social security question Xiao Chen had just asked had not been answered, so he hurriedly turned two more pages and said: "The social security system is constantly improving and becoming reasonable, and immediate consumption is expected to expand." With the abolition of various social welfare systems, future expenditures on medical care, housing, education and pension will directly affect residents' consumption. In the mid-to-late 90s, a number of welfare system reforms involving individuals constrained the growth of consumer demand during that period to a considerable extent. When China's economy re-entered a period of expansion, the state's financial resources continued to grow, and fiscal expenditures shifted from developing production to improving the people's living standards, the departments concerned began to re-examine and further improve various reform systems with a view to establishing a fair, reasonable, and perfect social security system.

For example, the state has introduced relatively strict measures to curb high education fees and fees, emphasizing the compulsory nature of primary and secondary schools, and some families have been overwhelmed by the burden of education expenditure. Recently, the departments concerned have rethought the reform of the medical system, and put forward the idea of separating medicine from medicine and establishing low-cost national hospitals, so as to solve the problem that the common people cannot afford to see a doctor. In addition, the state finance has implemented monetary subsidies for housing reform, and provided monetary subsidies to those who do not meet housing standards and those who do not have housing. With the continuous improvement and humanized design of various social security systems, residents are optimistic about the future expectations, and immediate consumption expenditure will continue to increase. ”

Finally, he said to Xiao Chen's last question: "As for the individual income tax, the deduction fee of the individual income tax will be increased from 800 yuan to 1,600 yuan and the national unified standard will be implemented, which will stab the consumption of low- and middle-income groups and the central and western regions." China's new individual income tax program is expected to be introduced and implemented in 2006, which is of great significance for expanding consumption. First of all, the new individual income tax will increase the deduction standard from 800 yuan to 1,600 yuan, a significant increase of 800 yuan, which is conducive to reducing the tax burden on the working class and increasing consumption. According to calculations, in 2004, the per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents was 7,182 yuan, calculated according to the per capita burden rate of 1.91, the per capita consumption expenditure of urban workers was 1,143 yuan/month, and the deduction of expenses was determined to be 1,600 yuan, so that the middle and low-income people had a slight surplus after ensuring that the basic expenditure was satisfied, which was a reasonable adjustment to conform to the increase in residents' income and the increase in living expenses. It is not conducive to expanding consumption.

Second, the national unified tax payment standard for individual income tax may seem unreasonable, but in fact, the new tax payment regulations are conducive to narrowing the regional income gap and encouraging residents in backward areas in the central and western regions to expand consumption. If a high threshold is implemented for high-income areas and a low threshold for low-income areas, the imbalance between regions will be further exacerbated, which will run counter to the original adjustment significance of individual income tax.

At present, the implementation of a unified tax standard in various localities will be beneficial to the western region with lower incomes, and a considerable number of middle- and low-income strata in the central and western regions will not have to pay individual income tax, which will help increase the purchasing capacity of money, increase consumer expenditure, and further promote the economic development of the backward areas. ”

Xiao Zheng suddenly smiled: "Look, look, there is progress in stability, and there is danger hidden in opportunities...... I said Pingjin, can your annual forecast not always be the same tone? ”——

I logged in to the author's area for half an hour, and I don't know if it's my network break, or the network break?