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Chapter 1140: Crisis and Speculation

The people in China enjoy the long holiday of Labor Day Golden Week, enterprises and institutions have holidays, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets are also closed and trading has been suspended, and the securities market on the other side of the Pacific Ocean is still in full swing, attracting the attention of most investors in the world -- the American people will not be able to enjoy the Labor Day holiday until the first Monday in September. Pen, fun, and www.biquge.info

After three days of avalanche-like decline, the Nasdaq began to oscillate on the third day of May after a brief pause on Saturdays and Sundays; Although there were some signs of a rebound, it was not of much magnitude – the Nasdaq's three-day avalanche of declines made ordinary investors understand how fragile the new economic boom advocated by Wall Street investors is.

During the domestic golden week, the Nasdaq index has been in a gloomy and downward spiral, without a decent rebound - Zhang Ke and many others believe that a considerable number of investors who got out earlier will turn around and join the short selling camp, increasing the downward pressure on the index.

At the beginning of May, the night in Jinshan was as cool as water, Tang Jing stepped on the floor barefoot, she was wearing a slightly translucent thin calico pajamas, hugged Zhang Ke from behind, her chin knocked on the top of his head, her soft and tender chin made his short hair itch, staring at the email displayed on the laptop screen, and asked: "Does Nicolison have to send such a long report every day?" ”

There is only one day of public holiday on Labor Day at the University of Hong Kong, plus the weekend, Tang Jing can only go back to the mainland for three days, the first night is spent in Jianye, and the second night is naturally back to Jinshan to accompany her parents. Zhang Ke has limited time to accompany Tang Jing, so naturally he has to accompany her to Jinshan to play for one more day, but fortunately, Tang Xueqian and Gu Jianping have already recognized him as a prospective son-in-law, and they don't need to sleep in a separate room with Tang Jing after arriving in Jinshan.

Tang Xueqian had business activities to participate in at night, and Zhang Ke and the others had a simple dinner, and then went back to the room to take a bath and rest. While Tang Jing was taking a shower in the bathroom, Zhang Ke sat at the desk in his pajamas and hurried to read the email, which was already an email sent to him every day by Nick Leeson for a week.

"How can it be every day? Just a few days, if there is every day, I will kill his heart! Zhang Ke grabbed Tang Jing's little hand with his backhand, hugged her into his arms, and let her sit on his lap.

Tang Jing sat on Zhang Ke's lap, her body twisted restlessly, pressed the mouse to drag the email down, stared at the long and boring report for a while, couldn't help yawning, turned her head and hugged Zhang Ke's neck, "Since you can judge that the Nasdaq is in a downward channel for a long time, why don't you adjust more funds to sell short......

"The NASDAQ index oscillates violently, even if it can be judged that the situation will continue to deteriorate, but the whole process is more complicated and ......sinister than ordinary people think," Zhang Ke patiently explained to Tang Jing, "Mitsui, Samsung, these Japanese and South Korean consortia secretly control a different number of hedge funds, different sizes, but hedge fund speculation has never been the main business of these consortia, once industrial capital is labeled as speculators, it is bound to reduce the market and consumer trust in industrial capital...... No additional funds will be mobilized, and the funds under hedge funds will not be concentrated in one market for profit, and in addition to diversifying risks, they will also distract the attention of other forces. ”

During the Asian financial crisis, Kumho's hedge fund secretly set up overseas invested in the international foreign exchange market in Thai baht, Korean won, Indonesian rupiah and other currencies to conduct short trading, and made a lot of profits. Subsequently, almost $300 million in profits were included in Kumho Shoji's account in the name of the company's claims.

Kumho Corporation, as the core of Kumho's industrial capital operation, has a debt of US$2.5 billion.

The transfer of the US$300 million from the initial shorting of Southeast Asian currencies to Kumho Corporation's account did not actually play a big role, and perhaps only gave Kumho executives some psychological comfort: Kumho Corporation's actual debt scale was not $2.5 billion on the books, but $2.2 billion. But what's the difference? With Kumho Corporation's financing capabilities, Kumho Corporation's liabilities were able to control the size of its liabilities to about $2.5 billion, and even if it had not transferred $300 million from hedge funds, Kumho Corporation's funds would have been able to raise funds from other financial investment institutions.

After the initial transfer of $300 million in funds, Zhang Ke, Ye Jianbin, Sun Shangyi, Ge Mingde and others still kept nearly $100 million in capital in the hedge fund account managed by Nicklison in their private names. This part of the funds in the hedge fund account has made a lot of gains in the overseas investment market in the past two years, and the capital increase is about 60 million US dollars. This is a good result, but it is a bit unsightly compared to the development of Kumho's industries - and it is precisely because Kumho is not interested enough in speculation in the financial markets.

In any case, the hedge fund managed by Nicolison also exceeded $300 million, and the bursting of the bubble of the global new economic wave and the resurgence of the financial turmoil were precisely the moment when they came out to make waves.

The bursting of the bubble of the new economic wave is not an accident, even if it is not the Microsoft antitrust case that becomes the fuse, there will be other things that will become the last straw that promotes the bursting of the bubble; The financial turmoil caused by the bursting of the bubble is also destined to spread to the real industry. There may be twists and turns, but the long-term development of the situation is clear. Even if Zhang Ke has memories of the past, his judgment of the situation is not necessarily more acute than that of the person standing at the top of the Wall Street pyramid; The timing of the Nasdaq's short selling or rebound is not necessarily more accurate than Nixon's.

In his email, Nicolison mentioned that the U.S. Supreme Court's appeal ruling in the Microsoft antitrust case in mid-June is likely to be the next critical timeline.

If Microsoft's appeal is rejected by the Supreme Court, the fate of Microsoft's spin-off cannot be reversed; However, the Microsoft antitrust case has directly caused the NASDAQ and the global new economy capital market to oscillate like a financial tsunami, and its impact is far-reaching and far worse than ordinary people expect, and the possibility of Microsoft's spin-off has been greatly reduced -- in mid-June, the US federal court is very likely to make an appeal ruling in Microsoft's favor, and it is very likely to trigger a strong rebound in the NASDAQ index at that time.

If Wall Street speculators had a similar view, the U.S. Supreme Court's appeal ruling on Microsoft's antitrust case would likely have fallen far more than anyone expected.

Zhang Ke can only echo Nicolisson's judgment, and the actual performance over the years has also confirmed that Nicolison is an extremely good and sensitive investor, especially with a keen sense of opportunities contained in the financial crisis.

In fact, although Zhang Ke still has a deep influence on the fund, he no longer directly controls it, and the hedge fund has become a private equity fund led by Nicklison, and Zhang Ke and Sun Shangyi also participate in the investment purely as private investors.

Tang Jing stayed in Jinshan overnight, and flew directly from Jinshan to Hong Kong the next morning, Zhang Ke sent Tang Jing on the plane and then left the airport to go to the construction site of Zhongjing Microchip's Jinshan factory. Tang Xueqian was busy with official business and had no time to send off the plane, so he also made an appointment to meet Zhang Ke at the construction site.

Just over two months after the construction of the Jinshan factory began, a brown-painted wrought-iron fence enclosed a large area, and a metasequoia forest in the distance. Zhang Ke and Tang Xueqian parked the car outside the metasequoia forest and walked into the metasequoia forest, on the other side of the metasequoia forest, there was a clear river, seventeen or eighteen meters wide, and the weeds on the river beach, so they knew that this was a water river that was not usually paid much attention to. Zhang Ke didn't expect that there would be such clear flowing water within the scope of Jincheng New Town.

"How deep will the financial tsunami triggered by the bursting of the new economic bubble affect the real world?" Tang Xueqian is also a matter related to the development of enterprises.

"It's hard to say," Zhang Ke can't directly say that the Nasdaq index is likely to fall to about a quarter of its peak, and he doesn't want to pretend to be a prophet, he still uses the reports submitted by the Kumho Economic Research Center and Nicklison to explain to Tang Xueqian, "Diffusion to entities is an inevitable trend...... Such a deep decline in the stock market is bound to drag the entire new economy down the abyss, and even if the securities capital market and venture capital funds do not close the door to the network companies, the door left behind should be extremely limited, and it will be difficult for the majority of small and medium-sized network companies without the support of venture capital to survive -- the large number of network companies will go bankrupt, and in addition to the large number of market demand for optical fiber and other communication infrastructure equipment industries will be greatly reduced, the demand for electronic components such as memory chips and software, will also drop by a large margin......

Tang Xueqian looked at the construction site across the woods through the straight metasequoia trees, and said: "The wafer manufacturing industry in Asia has not improved in the past two years, and it will be affected again this time, right?" ”

"Well," Zhang Ke nodded and said, "If the wafer market demand shrinks sharply as I judge, the global wafer industry, especially in the foundry field, except for a few wafer companies that can make profits, most wafer companies will fall into the quagmire of losses......"

Zhang Ke also saw that Samsung might delay the construction plan of Hongxin Electronics -- the joint investment in the wafer factory with Samsung Electronics was originally a hot spot in the market speculation of Haisu Technology, and Samsung's delay in the construction of Hongxin Electronics should be regarded as a lot of blows to Haisu Technology, but it is not clear when it will happen.