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"Of course the Mexican government will do this, but there are some things that they can't do if they want to do well, we all know that Mexico's economy is stable and it is also beneficial for the United States, but before the crisis broke out, I am afraid that the United States will not give Mexico too much aid, as for the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, it also depends on the attitude of the United States." Bao Feiyang replied to Tang Yongwen.

On the one hand, everyone has not yet realized the urgency and danger of the Mexican economic crisis, and any economic crisis in the world is a foreboding omen before the explosion, and a lot of truth can be analyzed afterwards, but before the crisis is born, everyone does not think that the crisis will arise, or that the crisis will not be born so quickly, and even if it is born, it will not be very strict...... All in all, there will be a lot of paralyzing, fluke, optimistic thoughts.

On the other hand, Mexico's stability is also good for the United States, but it is bound to pay a relatively large price to help Mexico, and the people of the United States will definitely not be willing to do this before they see the crisis, and if the United States government does this, it will definitely cause great protests among the people.

Therefore, it is possible for the government of the United States to be short-sighted, but it is not possible for the people of the United States, it is certain to be short-sighted. It's as if without the Pearl Harbor attack, the United States has not been able to make the decision to enter the war.

Of course, the reason why Bao Feiyang is so sure, in addition to the reasons he analyzed, the most important thing is that he knew the real reaction of the US government, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund after the Mexican financial crisis in his last life.

Tang Yongwen shrugged his shoulders and had to admit that Bao Feiyang's worries were justified.

Just over a year ago. The negative impact of the overvaluation of the Mexican peso has already appeared, and Mexico also has the idea of carrying out exchange rate reform, and it was in consideration of the thoughts of the American people that Mexico, which was at a critical moment in the NAFTA negotiations, did not carry out the exchange rate reform in time.

Later, in order to win this year's presidential election, the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party of Mexico once again missed the opportunity for exchange rate reform, and delayed it again and again. The depreciation of the peso has just been announced. The peso exchange rate plummeted, a large amount of capital fled, and the Mexican economy suddenly became out of control.

As the conversation with Bao Feiyang continued, it deepened. Tang Yongwen was very surprised. Bao Feiyang has a wealth of knowledge in finance and economics. is no worse than his Ph.D. in economics from Yale University, and Bao Feiyang also has a special ability, that is, he can always explain those esoteric and abstract economic principles in simple terms. Grasp the most critical point, so that people who don't know anything about financial theory can understand what Bao Feiyang is talking about.

And sometimes, Bao Feiyang will even put forward some Tang Yongwen has heard of, but can not fully understand and master the most cutting-edge and cutting-edge economic theories, and even some Tang Yongwen has not heard of it at all, but as soon as he heard it, he suddenly became enlightened, and was greatly inspired by novel economic theories, if it were not for Bao Feiyang sitting in front of him but talking to Tang Yongwen on the phone, Tang Yongwen would definitely think that the person on the other end of the phone was talking to him was the latest winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, because with Tang Yongwen's knowledge, Only economists who have just won the Nobel Prize in Economics can give him this kind of shock, right?

If Tang Yongwen still despised Bao Feiyang's views because of his youth at the beginning, now he will only be surprised, and whether he agrees with Bao Feiyang's judgment or not, he must admit that Bao Feiyang knows a lot of things, not to mention that when he was a graduate student at Yale University, even now, Tang Yongwen doesn't think he knows as much as Bao Feiyang.

Although he was a little amazed, Tang Yongwen did not immediately accept Bao Feiyang's judgment on the Mexican shape, after all, theory is theory, reality is reality, and now he is facing a big thing that affects the whole body.

Tang Zhenshan's thinking is not quite the same as Tang Yongwen, Tang Yongwen has been on Wall Street for a long time, and he admires the power of finance and believes that finance is a qiē. Tang Zhenshan laid down the Tang family's current business with one hand and one foot, mainly relying on industry, and he felt that industry was fundamental.

But after so many years of ups and downs in the business world, Tang Zhenshan also began to realize the influence of finance.

"It seems that there is one thing that you all agree on, that is, Mexico's economic and financial situation does have a very strict problem, the difference is only that Feiyang thinks that this problem will explode soon, while Yongwen thinks that the crisis will not necessarily explode, at least not immediately?" Tang Zhenshan had been listening to their discussion quietly, and finally spoke out his voice for the first time.

Bao Feiyang and Tang Yongwen both nodded, and Bao Feiyang said: "I think that after Zedillo takes office, he will immediately promote the exchange rate reform, and once he announces that the peso will achieve a floating exchange rate, or the peso will depreciate, it will inevitably cause a chain reaction, and a large number of floating capital in Mexico will definitely flee, which will lead to a full-scale financial crisis in Mexico." ”

Tang Yongwen immediately shook his head: "I don't think so, as long as the Cedillo introduces more active fiscal and monetary policies at the same time, as well as industrial opening policies, and obtains the support of the United States and Canada, backed by the North American Free Trade Area, it can still strengthen the confidence of investors and maintain the stability of the economy." ”

Bao Feiyang didn't refute it immediately, Tang Yongwen's words seemed reasonable, but people's hearts were very delicate, Tang Yongwen and Sedillo both thought that they could control it, but once the panic spread, it was far from being appeased by some prospects, after all, most of the investors were short-term speculators.

Tang Zhenshan didn't want to see them arguing endlessly, so he decisively concluded: "That is to say, Yongwen is an optimistic judgment, Feiyang is a pessimistic judgment, and the question now is whether we choose to be optimistic or pessimistic." ”

Tang Yongwen nodded: "Yes, Zedillo can stand out and be elected as the new president, he is not a stupid person, he is not fully prepared, and he does not dare to start the exchange rate reform casually." ”

Sedillo was elected president of Mexico three months ago, but he will not take office until tomorrow, December 1, when he is ready to take office.

Of course, there is no problem with the ability of this person, in fact, it did take extraordinary courage to start the exchange rate reform at that time, which led to the financial crisis, but with the help of the United States and the international community, it took more than a year for Mexico to achieve an initial recovery.

"It is true that Sedillo is very capable and courageous to be able to become president under an extremely complicated situation, but sometimes it is inevitable that he is a little too conceited, and I am worried that he will underestimate the shape and cause economic turmoil."

Seeing that Tang Yongwen was about to refute again, Tang Zhenshan waved his hand: "Okay, I understand what you mean, and there is no need to dwell on some details." ”

Hearing the old man Tang Zhenshan say this, Tang Yongwen had no choice but to shrug his shoulders and shake his head helplessly.

Tang Zhenshan said again: "Then let me ask you another question, if it is according to your judgment, what kind of impact will it have on our Tang family?" ”

Tang Yongwen glanced at Bao Feiyang and said first: "In the long run, the peso will inevitably depreciate, and the depreciation should be between 15 and 20 percent, and at most 25 percent. ”

"Mexico has an area of two million square kilometers, more than 100 million people, and joined the North American Free Trade Area at the beginning of the year, the exhibition potential is huge, as long as the Sedillo can make the peso exchange rate land, Mexico will definitely usher in a rapid development, so the main real industry owned by our Tang family will not be greatly affected, according to the future of the future Mexico market after the further opening of the shape, make certain adjustments, do not need to make a big move."

Bao Feiyang couldn't help but smile: "Uncle Tang, you are in charge of the industry of the United States, I thought you would be more willing to see the focus of the Tang family's industrial exhibition tilted to the United States!" ”

Tang Yongwen couldn't help but smile a little dumbly: "I have this idea, but the old man asked about the current shape of Mexico, and I just answered truthfully." ”

"Well, Uncle Tang's analysis is very thorough." Bao Feiyang nodded, and Tang Zhenshan also glanced at Tang Yongwen appreciatively, affirming his objectivity and rationality.

Bao Feiyang said: "Uncle Tang just said what to do in an optimistic situation, I will talk about the pessimistic situation, in fact, one thing is the same, that is, the peso will inevitably depreciate, sooner or later, so I think the Tang family does not need to take risks, and financial assets should be converted into dollars as soon as possible, there is no harm." ”

Tang Yongwen shook his head: "Of course I hope that the family's financial assets will be transferred to the United States, but if it is only about ten percent depreciation, the rate of return is not high, and it will increase costs and risks if it turns quickly." ”

Bao Feiyang said: "We will talk about these details later, Uncle Tang just mentioned that Mexico has a land area of 2oo thousand square kilometers, a population of more than 100 million, and the potential for exhibition, I don't know if you have noticed that we have 6 land areas of 9.6 million square kilometers and a population of 1.1 billion, and now we are also implementing an open policy, is it more potential?" ”

Tang Yongwen couldn't help but be dumbfounded: "Hey, Feiyang, are you here to attract investment?" ”

The Tang family has to receive invitations from the country every year, especially from the northwest provinces, so they are very clear about the enthusiasm for attracting investment in the mainland, and the old man Tang Zhenshan also asked Tang Tianer to go to the country to inspect by the way, but Tang Tian'er's evaluation of the mainland is not high, and the Tang family is also worried about the policy changes in the mainland, so they have not had a positive attitude.

Bao Feiyang smiled: "I know what the old man and Uncle Tang are worried about, it is nothing more than worrying about the re-emergence of policies in the mainland. Let's not talk about this for now, I just think that Mexico's political turmoil and policy instability are not the best place to invest, right? (To be continued......)