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In addition to the old man Tang Zhenshan, there is also Tang Zhenshan's third son, Tang Yongwen, who is in charge of the Tang family's rice business.

Tang Yongwen received an elite education in the United States since he was a child, and worked Wall Street for many years after graduation. He has always believed that the Tang family wants to go out of Mexico, the best way to enter the United States is Wall Street, the Tang family has accumulated huge wealth for decades, these wealth is not known to outsiders, the rate of return on investment is too low, and the management is also very complicated, only Wall Street has gathered a large amount of capital, which can achieve rapid appreciation of wealth.

Tang Yongwen has quite objections to the old man's base for entering the United States in Chinatown, he believes that San Francisco is a corner and is not the center of the United States, and it is difficult to get opportunities here to integrate into the mainstream society of the United States.

Tang Yongwen also disagrees with Bao Feiyang's judgment that the Mexican economy will fluctuate greatly in the near future, and even a financial crisis, saying that Mexico's liberalized economic reforms have been very successful and have fully stimulated its internal vitality, and as long as the new government can stabilize the political situation, it will usher in another high-growth cycle.

Therefore, as soon as they met, Tang Yongwen looked at Bao Feiyang for a while, and then said with a smile: "Mr. Bao looks very young, I heard Tian'er say, you seem to be in your early twenties?" What a young man! At your age, I've just arrived at Yale University for graduate school, and I don't know anything. ”

Tang Yongwen's words sounded very polite, but the words were full of a kind of pride, and the subtext was that Bao Feiyang was young and knew limited things. He Tang Yongwen was able to enter Yale University when he was in his twenties, which was already very good, but even he Tang Yongwen didn't dare to say anything when he was in his twenties, and he knew that Bao Feiyang had just studied in a non-mainstream university in mainland China for a few years, could it be said that he was better than him Tang Yongwen when he was a graduate student at Yale University? Not to mention now. Tang Yongwen has already received a doctorate from Yale and has been on Wall Street for many years, even though Bao Feiyang has worked in the mainland for several years, but due to the isolation of the mainland, it is even more 108,000 miles away from Mexico. It is hard to imagine that Bao Feiyang's judgment of the situation in Mexico will be more accurate than that of Tang Yongwen, a Ph.D. from Yale University and a financial expert on Wall Street!

Bao Feiyang heard Tang Yongwen's subtext. He smiled faintly and did not dwell too much with Tang Yongwen on this issue. Instead, after giving the prepared gift, a set of southern red agate ornaments, to Old Man Tang, he said straight to the point: "Old man, Uncle Tang, whether there will be a crisis in Mexico, I think it is difficult for us to argue clearly. When I came to the United States this time, I almost drained all the liquidity of Fangxia Ceramics, and borrowed 200 million US dollars from Xingang, including the funds raised from friends, a total of 1 billion US dollars, which will be invested in it all......"

"Aren't you afraid of dying?" Old man Tang is okay. Hearing that Bao Feiyang is ready to invest a billion dollars in Mexico, he can still keep quiet. Tang Yong was shocked when he heard the text, even if he had worked on Wall Street for so long, except for a few hedge fund giants such as Soros, he had never seen a few people who dared to use a huge amount of money of one billion dollars to speculate at every turn-and this speculation only came from Bao Feiyang's private judgment of opportunity. If Bao Feiyang really did what he said, it would simply be the craziest speculator he Tang Yongwen had ever seen, and perhaps the stupidest speculator.

Bao Feiyang smiled. I didn't want to explain any more, but said lightly: "Uncle Tang, of course we all like to make money in business, and no one is willing to lose money, right?" If I dare to invest a billion dollars, I certainly have a certain degree of certainty to do so. ”

Tang Yongwen glanced at Old Man Tang and shrugged his shoulders. In fact, as far as the decision-making level of the Tang family in Mexico is concerned, including the old man Tang Zhenshan, they didn't agree with Bao Feiyang's words very much at first. Inviting Bao Feiyang to come to the United States, on the one hand, Tang Zhenshan's always cautious personality made him always think about the extreme situation of the financial crisis in Mexico that Bao Feiyang judged to be born. how the Tang family should protect themselves; On the other hand, they all know that Bao Feiyang is the boss behind Fangxia Ceramics, so they also want to take this opportunity to get in touch.

After seeing him in person, even Tang Zhenshan felt that Bao Feiyang was too young and some words could not be taken seriously.

But when he heard that Bao Feiyang suddenly threw out a billion-dollar speculative plan. Immediately shocked them, a billion dollars for a family like the Tang family that has accumulated for decades can still be obtained, but it is also more difficult, after all, the money will depreciate there, only when the money flows can it make money, the Tang family wants to take out so much cash at once It is impossible in normal times, and it is indeed affected by Bao Feiyang's warning, the Tang family will consciously realize a part of the bonds and equity, and convert it into US dollars, so that it is possible to take out this money in the short term.

Being able to start a company like Fang Xia in just a few years, Bao Feiyang is certainly not a crazy person, so he must have his reasons for doing so.

Because of Bao Feiyang's determination, the old man Tang Zhenshan began to want to understand Bao Feiyang's true thoughts, otherwise, even if Bao Feiyang had a lotus tongue, he probably wouldn't go to his heart, and would only think it was the young man's rhetoric.

This is the purpose of Bao Feiyang's plan at the beginning.

"Hehe, I really envy you young people, I'm old, I don't dare to do such a risky thing." Tang Zhenshan said with a smile.

"Mr. Bao, I don't know where your confidence comes from, do you have any inside information?" Tang Yongwen smiled, different from the old man's idea, Tang Yongwen felt that Bao Feiyang was probably bragging, and no one knew if he really took out a billion US dollars.

Even on Wall Street, a single multi-billion dollar transaction doesn't happen every day. If it is true, then he has to admire Bao Feiyang's courage and skill, but he does not necessarily have to believe Bao Feiyang's judgment.

Tang Yongwen has his own views on Mexico's economic shape, and has been paying attention to the analysis given by Wall Street analysts, and the most daring analysts on Wall Street dare not say that Mexico's economy will reverse within the year, and although most analysts believe that the Mexican economy has problems, the overall shape is still good, Bao Feiyang, a small mainland bureaucrat in his early twenties, may not even have been abroad before, can he know more about Mexico than him and Wall Street analysts?

In a word. Tang Yongwen didn't believe it.

Bao Feiyang smiled, he understood Tang Yongwen's thoughts, and he also knew that it might not be easy to convince the Tang family, and he didn't think that he could persuade them lightly, and even had the opportunity to fight alone.

"The current structure of Mexico's economy. I think the old man and Uncle Tang must be very clear about the basic situation of foreign exchange reserves and debt structure, so I won't say more. I would like to ask you a question, is there any feasible way for Mexico to solve the current crisis? Bao Feiyang looked at Tang Zhenshan and Tang Yongwen and asked seriously.

Tang Zhenshan smiled and shook his head: "Brother Feiyang said it was funny. Such a little thing from the Tang family made me walk on thin ice and tremble, although Mexico is not big, but it is not small, how complicated are the various situations, what can I do? ”

Tang Yongwen glanced at Bao Feiyang. "The main problem of Mexico's current economy is that the peso is overvalued, resulting in weak exports and a huge deficit in the current account. While a large amount of foreign capital enters the country, it can make up for the current account deficit and stimulate the development of the domestic real economy, and finally achieve a balance in the current account. ”

Bao Feiyang smiled, this is a typical liberal economic policy: "Uncle Tang means that the peso is still pegged to the dollar? ”

Tang Yongwen hesitated: "Naturally, we have to pegged to the US dollar, once the exchange rate of the peso falls, it will definitely make investors lose confidence and cause a large amount of capital outflow, so as to happen." The economic development is about to be affected. ”

Bao Feiyang nodded, this is pragmatism again: "Yes, as far as I know, only about 20 percent of the foreign investment attracted by Mexico is direct investment. The remaining 70 or 80 percent are securities investments, which are relatively speculative in nature and have relatively strong liquidity, and may be lost in large quantities once the wind blows. ”

Direct investment refers to direct investment in enterprises, and the cycle of such investment is often relatively long and it is not easy to withdraw. Securities investment is to buy stocks and bonds in the securities market, and they are trading all the time, and the liquidity is very strong, and they often run to wherever they are profitable, regardless of the mess left behind them.

Tang Yongwen, who was born in finance, was naturally very clear about this, he nodded and said: "So the exchange rate of the peso can't be moved, and if it moves, it will plummet." ”

Bao Feiyang smiled: "However, even if the peso does not depreciate, Mexico's foreign capital is also flowing outward, the economy of the United States and Europe has continued to improve in recent years, and the interest rate has been raised several times, making the investment of the dollar in Mexico not cost-effective, according to my estimates, Mexico's capital flowing to the United States this year has reached nearly 20 billion, and Mexico has no way to retain investor confidence just by forcibly pegging to the dollar." ”

There are roughly two ways for foreign capital to enter Mexico, one is to exchange it for Mexican pesos, and then invest in industries in Mexico, buy securities, etc., because the peso is overvalued, it is obvious that this kind of investment is not cost-effective, once the peso depreciates, these investments will be lost.

The other is to buy US dollar securities in the Mexican market, such as the US dollar bonds of the Mexican government bank, which are settled in US dollars and are not affected by the peso exchange rate.

Mexico pegged the peso to the dollar, which can only ensure that these capitals will not flee because of the depreciation of the peso, but there is no way to guarantee investment returns, and when the interest rate in Europe and the United States, especially in the United States, increases, the rate of return on funds exceeds Mexico, and the capital will naturally flow to the United States, which is impossible to change by keeping the exchange rate stable.

Therefore, in order to strengthen investors' confidence and avoid investment outflow, the most fundamental approach is to increase investment returns, investment income can not be generated out of thin air, only the real economy will be developed, will generate income.

"That's why I say that Mexico must open up more markets and investment areas to stimulate economic development." Tang Yongwen said.

Bao Feiyang shook his head slightly: "The peso is pegged to the dollar, the cost of foreign capital entering the real economy is raised, the cost of production is also high, and the export price is not competitive, even if Mexico wants to open up, I'm afraid not many people are willing to go in, right?" ”

When it comes to international investment, they tend to prefer countries that are undervalued, like China today, and Japan in the past.

The undervaluation of the currency means that the dollar owned by the investor has a higher value in the country, and the original purchase of one building can buy two buildings, and the entry cost is greatly reduced.

The currency is undervalued, and a ton of steel is put on the international market and exchanged for US dollars, which is only half the price, and the market competitiveness of the product is stronger.

If the currency is undervalued, there is no need to worry that the currency or assets held will depreciate, because the undervaluation cannot be more undervalued, and it will appreciate one day.

Countries with overvalued currencies are on the contrary, not only worrying that their currencies may depreciate at any time, but also that they will have high costs and reduced product competitiveness, making it difficult to make money.

That's why the United States will let the yen appreciate, and it has always been said that Huaxia manipulated the RMB exchange rate and demanded that the RMB appreciate, and this is the reason.

Tang Yongwen was unconsciously introduced into this thinking channel by Bao Feiyang, he had to admit that Bao Feiyang's analysis was right, in fact, there are also some Wall Street analyses pointing out that the Mexican peso is overvalued and must be devalued, but the depreciation of the peso will affect the country's exports to Mexico, as well as the value of Wall Street's investment in Mexico, so there are not many voices encouraging the depreciation of the Mexican peso.

But Tang Yongwen must consider this possibility, he pondered for a while, and said: "If Mexico really wants the peso to depreciate, it must seek financial assistance from the United States or the World Bank under the condition of opening the market and investment, and spend great efforts to stimulate economic growth while depreciating, and at the same time ensure sufficient foreign exchange reserves, so as to ensure that the peso exchange rate will not plummet completely out of control." ”

After a pause, he added: "Of course, I don't think the Mexican government will take the initiative to devalue the peso, and they may adopt a very slow way to gradually return the peso exchange rate to a normal level." ”

Bao Feiyang glanced at Tang Yongwen, knowing that the Tang family, a Wall Street financial expert, had wavered in his thoughts, but there was still no way to turn the corner.