Chapter 009: Huang Tian should stand

In the PC era, the CPU and operating system can be monopolized, but in the era of smartphones, the global competition is more intense, and the CPU cannot be monopolized, because the dominant CPU is a company called ARM, which is a loose British small company, and there are several IT giants including Apple, none of which can control it.

Because no one can control zhìARM, Apple has its own A-series CPU, Qualcomm has its own Snapdragon, Samsung has its own Exynos, MediaTek has its own Helio, Huawei has HiSilicon, and even Xiaomi has invested a little money in developing CPUs.

In this era of smartphones, the operating system has also formed two camps, and the monopoly of Microsoft in the PC era no longer exists. Some people say that the operating system is only Apple and Google, isn't that also a monopoly of the two? No, Apple is closed, while Android is open, except for products related to Google products, Linux and Java-based Android must be open source, that is, if Google wants to further tighten its pockets and make a lot of money one day, theoretically powerful organizations can create a branch of Android that is competitive enough.

In other words, Google's attempt to tighten its pockets is unlikely to succeed, and of course, he will not do so, the idea is different. Google is an advocate of the intangible economy, which is also where he is powerful, because the intangible economy represents the direction of the future, so Google will briefly become the world's first in terms of market capitalization when its profits are several times lower than Apple's.

It's hard to imagine that the only vendor that can compete with Apple on the operating system is an advocate of the intangible economy, which in itself is a sign that something is coming. What does a manufacturer that controls the OS of the world's largest mobile phone make money? It's his search, relying on the ads in the search, by attracting your attention to make money.

Human beings have 24 hours a day, 8 hours of work, and 16 hours of idleness, and the attention economy is to help you allocate the remaining 16 hours, and if they do well enough, they will be attracted to these 16 hours of sleep. In recent years, there are more and more people with insomnia, what are you doing when you get up from the bedside? This is the question for the attention economy.

There is no doubt that Google, the world's largest advertising company, is the leader of the attention economy, and companies like Facebook and Tencent are the second most important ones, and they also rely on advertising to steal your attention. E-commerce websites don't always make money by attention, right? Hey, to your surprise, e-commerce sites are also another kind of attention economy.

Anyone can open a store on Taobao, who will make money? Only the top-ranked stores in the search results can make money, in fact, Taobao is the e-commerce version of the search engine, and those highly relevant ads on the right are the biggest mystery of Taobao making a lot of money, not the pitiful entrance fee he charges as a hypermarket.

You can open your most commonly used financial management website, take a look at those funds related to raw materials and basic heavy chemicals, and look at their tables in recent years, the trend is very obvious, the so-called strategic raw materials or something, all are declining.

In the era of globalization, all conspiracy theories are going bankrupt one by one, what strategic raw materials, in the context of globalization, are rotten streets, only high-tech products are scarce, what rare earths, non-ferrous metals, mahogany, gemstones, all in all corners of the earth have competing products, as long as it is an individual can be mined, just drive an excavator to mine efficiently.

Unless it is sanctioned by the Security Council, even the places where the warlord leaders have entrenchment can be mined. You don't need any security guarantees, give money, give excavators, the warlord leaders will naturally arrange manpower to help you mine, and give you a good look, the military leaders everywhere are also helpless, and they can't even sell the oil for money.

The low price of oil is closely related to industrial raw materials, because it takes fuel to drive an excavator, and the decline in oil prices will reduce the cost of extracting raw materials. The weakness of oil prices has been hit by multiple dimensions.

The most direct is the emergence of shale oil extraction technology, which has enabled the primary market of the United States to achieve self-sufficiency in oil and gas, as long as the oil price is above $50 a barrel, Mobil and BP can happily extract shale oil in the United States. China's shale oil reserves are also quite abundant and world-class. The two energy powers are turning around at the same time, and they are a nuclear bomb in the energy economy, which means that the oil-exporting countries can no longer monopolize the market and cannot keep oil prices high.

The OPEC members' inability to monopolize oil supply will trigger a chain reaction in order to resist lower and lower oil prices, and OPEC members will inevitably increase oil production, with the consequence of further oil price declines.

What's more, the progress of science and technology is also improving the efficiency of oil use in another dimension. The rise of Tesla is a landmark event, it is the first successful pure electric car factory in history, and it is still in the category of high-end cars, but it will soon enter the mid-class car market, which is the backbone of the car market, and this event will happen when global oil prices will be further hit.

Some people say that electric vehicles rely on charging stations, and factories that generate electricity don't need to consume oil and gas.

Yes, there are factors for this, but even if you look at the problem in this way, it feels that the efficiency is improved, because the power station can use large equipment to generate electricity, and the excess heat is recovered, which greatly improves the energy conversion rate of the fuel oil. In addition, renewable energy is growing rapidly in developed countries, and China, which is plagued by air pollution, is also vigorously increasing renewable energy power generation, and many small cities have large wind power generation blades everywhere.

Tesla's solar charging station has established a global free charging network, and someone drives a Tesla from BJ to XZ without spending a penny, which is also a landmark event. In the future, this kind of thing will only happen more and more.

The third dimension is the impact of ride-hailing software on oil prices. Many car owners actually hate the car itself, but in order to facilitate travel, taxi software has made some car owners give up owning their own cars, because more and more advanced and more comfortable private cars have joined the travel market.

Therefore, in the long run, the taxi software will continue to reduce the ownership rate of the car, and people always want to drive it after they have a car, otherwise they can't drive it a few times a week, isn't it a tyrannical thing? This is a very realistic state of mind, without your own car, you will naturally reduce the number of travel.

Not to mention the fact that owning a car itself will lose fuel because gasoline is a volatile substance and you will also lose gas if you don't drive.

When there are fewer vehicles on the street, traffic efficiency increases, and the efficiency of the engine increases, which is also a factor that will indirectly hit oil prices after the efficiency of the mobility market increases.

The third dimension is very imaginary is the development of e-commerce, so that a large amount of shopping occurs on the Internet, reducing the trouble of travel, and the courier brother also travels, but they suddenly pull a cart with a large bag and a small bag, which is not the same as the efficiency of individuals going out to buy things.

This is a turbulent era, just recently, the cost of industrial machine has reached 100,000 per year, this is a landmark event, because it can rotate 24 hours a day, an industrial machine can withstand 3 assembly line workers, it can be said that the next step is a large number of workers to withdraw from the assembly line.

It is precisely because even China, where labor is cheap, has begun to automate, that there will be a chain reaction, and the surge in demand will be followed by a surge in production, and the price of industrial machines will be further reduced. It's the same as shale oil leather hitting exporting countries.

This year, China topped the list of "the most suitable countries in the world to start a business", and you know what a huge labor force our world factory has released this year. A large number of working people in the confused era had no choice but to start businesses, resulting in the sudden emergence of this unprecedented group. The real economy is declining at a rate that is visible to the naked eye.

However, we may not be prepared yet. You may wonder why our Internet competition in China is so fierce. So much so that the war of taxi-hailing software, group buying apps and mobile payment actually depends on directly subsidizing users to use them? Why will Taobao still appear after China has an eBay, and Tencent will soon launch Paipai, and Baidu will also have it?

After QQ became popular, why did Xinlang want to release UC, Taobao to engage in Wangwang, NetEase to release bubbles, and Baidu to release Baidu HI?

Why is it that after the meal comes out, there will be a rush of Xinlang Meager , Tencent Meager , Sohu Meager and NetEase Meager ", why haven't I heard the ghost idea of Americans going to play a dozen Twitter?

After the emergence of Meituan, there was a 100-group battle of the Internet in China, and a bunch of Internet bigwigs beat each other, and people's heads were beaten into dogs' heads, but there is only one Groupon in the United States in the primary Internet market who is singing a one-man show?

This is because the U.S. market has implemented the concept of intellectual property rights into its bones, even if there is no explicit stipulation that a certain website model is exclusive, the entire market, from investors to technology media, to individual users, are consciously lined up, if a product is not differentiated, there will hardly be a product that is exactly the same as the original product.

And China's national conditions are different, take rice and group buying as an example, they are all rumors that Wang Xing went to the United States to talk and laugh with Silicon Valley people, and copied them from the primary market, why don't you copy me if you can? No one is dirtier than anyone, is it? Almost all of the websites and mobile products that are popular in China's mainstream market are copycats in the primary market, some of which are pixel-level replications, and some of which are high-definition and self-contained.

In the United States, there is no discipline in capital, although there are certain consequences of losing discipline, but as long as the interest is large enough to a certain extent, pixel-level copying will also occur, for example: after seeing that Google is on fire, Microsoft and Yahoo have quickly entered the copier mode, and they have begun to use Google's PageRank mode to arrange search results.

What is the result? Both Microsoft and Yahoo have failed, and no amount of financial strength can stop the first-mover advantage of originality. Search for this product is quite special, the first-mover advantage is obvious, because Google will continue to improve the relevance of search according to the user's click habits, and the technology media will also make waves, tell everyone how hard Google is in this regard, in fact, Google's search is a large number of jù mode, the more people who use it, the more accurate the search.

The most evil competitor, Microsoft, tried to crush Google with the free bundling model, just as they used the same method to kill Netscape, but this time they ran into Google's god-level CEO, and immediately launched a monopoly lawsuit, so that Microsoft does not allow bundling in the world.

Although Microsoft is a tyrant, the investors in Silicon Valley are not dry food, and they continue to send food and grass to Google, and in the end, on the battlefield of search, the world's largest evil software empire finally failed to kill the original website after losing a place of discipline. This case is estimated to be a reminder to all investors that in a market with free competition and mature anti-monopoly mechanisms, the photocopier model should be used with caution.

The so-called mature market is a market that will not lightly open the copier mode, which is a tacit understanding that combines discipline and practical interests. The intangible assets of original products are magnified in this mature market, and all product people will have a measure in their hearts, and they will focus on real innovation, while in the Chinese market, which is full of smashing chastity arches, everyone will focus on how to elegantly imitate at the pixel level and how to be high-definition.

Encouraging innovation? It's difficult, looking at the fragments of the torii all over the street, I don't know what to do, and the rulers don't know what to do. They know that if the protection of intellectual property rights is too strong, those large companies with a market value of tens of billions of dollars may not be able to pick up the fragments of the archway on the ground if they do not make a effort. It is difficult to innovate, and it is also difficult to wash the floor. 】