In recent years, the summer file effect has become more and more popular, and the premiere box office is naturally rising, last year's "X-Men 2" premiere box office was as high as 85 million US dollars, and the previous year's "Spider-Man" broke the record of 114 million US dollars, and even the premiere of "The Mummy Returns" the year before last reached 68 million!

It can be seen that the average box office of summer works has been greatly improved compared with five years ago and ten years ago, and now the average has risen to more than $50 million, but this can only be regarded as an average benchmark.

In addition to the media, the production company of the film will give a prediction of its own. This is the production company's internal viewing of the movie, by the internal professionals to make a guess, most of the media will also use the studio's prediction as a benchmark to measure the success or failure of a movie, or use the studio's prediction as the standard to give their own estimates.

This time, the propaganda of the "day after tomorrow" was completely preemptive, and it was only after entering the first week of May that it exploded with infinite power, which caught everyone a little off guard; Moreover, "The Day After Tomorrow" is the first experimental product after the summer file is raised this year, and everyone's prediction of the box office does not have a crosshairs-whether it is predicted according to the specifications of the previous summer files, or according to the level of the spring file, these are two very different grades, so everyone seems to be more cautious.

Twentieth Century Fox's official forecast of 53 million means that they believe that a three-day opening weekend would have met expectations.

This result is only barely above average, and it can be seen that Twentieth Century Fox still has some expectations for the "day after tomorrow", but tries to lower expectations, whether it is to relieve pressure on the "day after tomorrow" or lack of confidence. The cautious attitude of Twentieth Century Fox can be seen. Especially compared to the flamboyance and madness of "Troy", it seems to be even more short-breathed.

Nancy looked at Javier with a smile, "What?" Do you think the grades should be higher? ”

Javier nodded as a matter of course. "I don't think there should be any problem with 60 million. Looking at the publicity effect of the past few days, the audience is bound to cheer. "Of course. Javier's knowledge of the film industry is still only at the entry level, and his prediction criteria are still relatively simple and crude.

Nancy raised her chin and smiled, "However, the propaganda only started on Monday, and after the propaganda effect fermented, it would take at least a week to two weeks." I don't think the box office numbers for the opening weekend will be too high. "I spoke to a veteran reporter at The Hollywood Reporter today, and he felt that the 'day after tomorrow' propaganda strategy seemed to be wrong. If it starts two weeks early, maybe the premiere box office can exceed 65 million, but now......" Nancy dragged out the last note, "I think 50 million." Twentieth Century Fox's predictions are actually leaving a little leeway for himself. ”

Nancy's idea is actually a more mainstream idea in the current circle, the "day after tomorrow" movie is congenitally insufficient, and the entire crew has almost no publicity gimmicks worth mentioning, plus disaster movies have gradually declined; Finally, a novel publicity idea appeared, but the timing went wrong. It's suffocating; Considering that "Troy" is on the heels of the event, the box office prospects of "The Day After Tomorrow" are indeed worrying.

As one of the most influential professional magazines in the industry, the "Hollywood Reporter" naturally has absolute authority over the views of its internal veterans. Overall. The view of "day after tomorrow" still occupies the mainstream.

"The wrong timing of your propaganda strategy?" Javier raised an eyebrow at Nancy, then chuckled, "Your views are in line with the Los Angeles Times?" Did you change jobs? ”

In an issue published yesterday morning, the Los Angeles Times gave a forecast of $50 million at the box office of "The Day After Tomorrow." It was they who first came up with the idea of the timing of the propaganda.

Cliff Robinson wrote that in the 21st century, the market for disaster movies has almost been eaten away, and last spring's "Rescue from the Center" only made $30 million at the North American box office. Even though the cost is only 70 million US dollars, it still makes the production company lose tens of millions. After 2000. The only disaster film to achieve box office recognition was "The Perfect Storm" released in 2000, which is considered the last glory of disaster movies since the new century. However, its 180 million North American box office is not a big win compared to the cost of 140 million.

It is worth mentioning that Wolfgang Petersen, the director of "The Perfect Storm", is the director of "Troy".

In the article, Cliff believes that the shrinking of the disaster film market has made the "day after tomorrow" miss the time, especially such a special and sensitive schedule, which has created more ups and downs for the box office to achieve good results, which is worrying; At the same time, due to the pinching of "Troy", the film missed the location again; In addition, the cast of the crew itself is difficult to take on the big responsibility, and the most famous is only Hollywood second-tier actor Dennis Quaid, and he has become a mirror.

In the absence of any advantage in "the right time, place and people", the perfect publicity plan chose the wrong time to break out, which is undoubtedly fatal.

However, Cliff still expressed his expectations for Lance's directing skills, "City of God" was originally an impossible task, but Lance showed a deep level, so people have reason to look forward to the "day after tomorrow", coupled with the viral publicity in the past few months, so Cliff gave a "50 million" premiere box office prediction.

There is no doubt that the Los Angeles Times, as a leader in public opinion on the West Coast, is bound to be justified even if it is a critical view, and Cliff's article is widely endorsed. Overall, media forecasts are hovering around 50 million, which is largely consistent with Twentieth Century Fox's own forecasts.

A total of seven media have predicted the premiere box office of "The Day After Tomorrow", and all other media are in a wait-and-see mode, obviously still uncertain about the special situation of this year's summer file; And "Troy" has only a week to go before its premiere, and this week's forecast has already exceeded double digits, and the stark contrast between the two is really too cruel.

Among them, the highest prediction comes from the "New York Post", they believe that the film's premiere box office can be as high as 66 million, and there is no suspense to start the first shot for this year's summer file; The lowest prediction came from the San Francisco Chronicle, where the 38 million forecast was unwaveringly bearish on the film's box office prospects.

Especially in the "San Francisco Chronicle", Brian Barlow is not optimistic about the box office of the movie premiere at all, and even said at the end of the article, "If it weren't for the fact that this is a summer file, maybe 18 million is the most realistic." For reference, last week's "Mean Girl" box office in its opening weekend was 24 million - which is obviously a mockery that "the day after tomorrow" can only rely on the crowd of audiences in the summer to achieve a certain breakthrough.

In contrast to "The Day After Tomorrow", six media outlets have predicted that "Troy" will make more than $100 million at the box office for its premiere. This bad situation of wolves and tigers in front of them casts a thick shadow on the premiere prospect of "The Day After Tomorrow", as if the movie has not yet been released, and the victory or defeat in the first month of the summer file has been settled.

"What I respect is the facts." Nancy shrugged her shoulders, at present, the eyes of the entire Hollywood are locked on the summer file, and the discussion of "The Day After Tomorrow" and "Troy", the two works that took the lead in grabbing the beach, is even more heated than imagined. In fact, Nancy also has a slight affinity for Lance - after all, he is the one who has won more job opportunities, but Nancy does not let subjective judgment affect her professionalism.

Javier stopped what he was doing and took a serious look at Nancy, he didn't know much about the box office, but he knew more about Lance than he did in Hollywood.

Javier couldn't help but think of the news he had just gotten today - the entire publicity plan of "The Day After Tomorrow" was planned by Lance, he had been involved in the Super Bowl plan, but he didn't expect that the second half was actually planned by Lance - which is why he arrived a little late at the Chinese/Chinese Theater today.

If this was Reims' plan, then the possibility of wrong timing would be infinitely close to zero. Javier didn't think Lance would make such a low-level mistake - although Lance was not a professional propagandist, but Havel had that confidence in him!

"So what do you think, let's bet?" Javier gave a big smile and looked at Nancy defiantly.

Nancy tilted her head, carefully examined Javier's expression, and then spread her hands and accepted calmly, "Why not?" I bet a dollar that the 'day after tomorrow' won't make more than 53 million at the box office. Nancy blinked slyly.

Javier raised his right hand, high-fived Nancy as an oath, and said neatly, "One dollar, more than sixty million!" ”

"Even Twentieth Century Fox is on my side." Nancy triumphantly reminded that it was clear that the victory was in hand.

While speaking, there was a commotion at the beginning of the red carpet, followed by a rush of screams, Nancy and Javier immediately put themselves into the state of work, turned their heads to look, and then saw that the first to appear on the red carpet tonight was Alan DeJanes (-res), the female host who has won many loves in the past year with the "Ellen Show", and last year had a direct connection with the movie for the first time - she voiced "Finding Nemo", and her career is booming, And the first one to appear at the premiere today was apparently the host invited by Twentieth Century Fox.

Sure enough, Alan immediately took the microphone and skillfully began to mobilize the atmosphere of the scene. The premiere ceremony of "The Day After Tomorrow" kicked off vigorously, and all the qiē were ready to go, and the summer file of 2004 officially debuted! (To be continued.) )

ps: Today's second update, I implore all book friends to support genuine subscriptions, thank you!