Gu Mojie's speech at the group's high-level tone-setting meeting in November was unanimously recognized and implemented. Pen? Interesting? Pavilion wWw. ｂiquge。 infoAt the beginning, everyone was still a little confused, and some people felt that Mr. Gu's statement was too advanced.

However, in just a few months, several examples of the industry have exploded, and many O2O start-ups that were once coaxed by the circle to be potential unicorns, backed by Ma Feng's led investment, collapsed, squeezing out the bubble of the industry.

Then, the credibility of Gu Mojie's words became higher and higher.

2011 ended like this in a melee with a group of bigwigs.

Hatsune beat Fuji Xun to the floor, making Fuji Xun completely lose hope of competing for hegemony in the field of IM communications.

Ma Feng's desperate transformation to build his "mobile payment scenario" empire has also opened an era of deep integration of domestic e-commerce and offline commerce, and this trend will continue to develop for many years to come.

Boss Li and other foreign bigwigs have focused on competing for the role of the leader of the second echelon of global artificial intelligence assistants.

However, the loser is far from the moment when he throws in the towel. After the Hatsune Department beat the vine news, there were many high-level executives in the interior who thought that the general trend had been decided, but then they found out that the twist vine was really not a fuel-efficient lamp.

After all, Tengxun still has a market value of 80 billion US dollars, after the complete defeat in the IM field, Twist Teng immediately and decisively broke his wrist, no longer doing any crazy money burning and expansion in order to promote WeChat and WeChat wallet, but quietly began to transform, and transformed Tengxun from a company that does traffic and market value into a company that does content and profits.

Translated in human terms, it means that Twist Vine no longer seeks the rapid expansion of QQ and WeChat user groups and competes for the first place in this field. He just wants to concentrate all his strength on making games, music, videos, and even the field of online literature that Tengxun has not set foot in before, and deeply cultivate the consumption potential of existing users.

When a company has the ability to compete for the first place in the field of instant messaging and social networking, it will not rush to put its main energy into the content field, just like Zuckerberg's Facebook, it will not rush to make games or even paid music and online articles.

This was deeply reflected before 2008, when Zuckerberg's partners repeatedly advised him to "do something that can make the company profitable", and Zuckerberg vetoed it in one sentence:

“its-not-cool！”

For Xiaozha back then, not being overly polluted by the commercial atmosphere was an important factor in the high growth of its users, and those pollution should not be considered before occupying most of the market.

Not only Xiaozha's Facebook holds this business philosophy, but Google's attitude towards YouTube in another time and space is also the same, and YouTube has entered the era of patch advertising very late.

Of course, we know how to 'learn' from Facebook's success. At the time when Tengxun still had hope to compete for the first place, it was relatively conservative in the field of cashing out profits, and only after this competition was completely hopeless, it fell into the model of thoroughly pursuing accelerated cash-out and slag out the surplus value of existing users.

At this time, all kinds of free online games with no lower limit began to violently enter the field of vision of Tengxun Games, as long as you can make quick money and help take out the pocket money in the pockets of the remaining more than 400 million primary school students, middle school students, and college students, you can put down your body and do it.

At the beginning of 2012, Twist Teng tried to enter the field of online literature, and at that time he found Chen Tianqiao and wanted to buy a certain website of Shengda, but of course Chen Tianqiao did not bird him. Twist vine later investigated, felt that a certain point is still not enough to meet the needs of primary school students' routines, can not meet the needs of Tengxun users to quickly cash out, simply dig out a team from a certain point, and then tailor-made a station called a certain creation, specializing in primary school students' book city. Whatever content can touch the masturbation of elementary school students, what will be sold.

……

In 2012, I came back after the New Year and started work again, and it was another year of various Forbes, Fortune, Hurun, and authoritative financial magazines' analysis of the major giants one after another. The list of the richest people and the top 500 companies in China and even the world have produced violent shocks and reshuffles.

On the other hand, 2012 is also destined to be a year of great change of blood in China, some centers of the imperial court have changed, and some systems such as the military or a certain government will be delayed, about a year. So the whole process of handing over rights needs to last a year.

Gu Mojie's current political identity naturally has to attend the conference in March. However, just like last year, because of the need to be in the spotlight of being concerned, coupled with the need to prevent Fuji Xun from uniting with more state-owned enterprise partners, Gu Mojie is still low-key this year, no matter what other people put forward in favor of Hatsune or other private capital that tries to intervene in the communications industry, he does not care, pursue, or participate.

Because the development rate of the domestic Internet economy and other new economic models is much faster than that of the same period in history, at least contributing nearly 1~2 percentage points to the GDP growth rate of the national economy, the growth rate of this time and space has reached 9.5%, even taking into account the factors of slowing down year by year, it is estimated that it can still be maintained at 8% after five years.

Therefore, the policy of mobile communication virtual operators, which was only liberalized in 2013, was officially adopted at the conference a year ahead of schedule -- everyone knows that if it is based on the pure economic development trend, this step can be completed earlier. However, the biggest constraint on this kind of liberalization is political, not economic, and the supreme will not become supreme, and the gate of certain interests will not be opened. It is rare to implement such a reform when the change is only halfway completed.

A group of large private investors who have something to do with the Zhao family have entered the field of virtual operators.

Gu Mojie did not move, and continued to publicly release a point of view on a suitable occasion: within five years, Hatsune Group will not consider becoming a virtual operator and will not obtain a virtual operator license.

When the bigwigs of China Mobile and China Telecom heard it, they were happy. Then the envoy sent by Twist Vine to fan the flames and try to get Mobile Telecom to join the "WeChat Traffic Fee Reduction Package" camp was blasted out.

Gu Mojie was so steady and steady, the last trace of hope that Twist Vine tried to rely on the opponent's uncalm and counterattack was dashed.

After the meeting in mid-March, Gu Mojie stayed in the capital to deal with the relations between all parties and returned to Qiantang at the end of the month.

The "essence inventory stickers" of major global authoritative financial magazines, as well as the 2011 financial reports and the first quarter of 12 financial reports of Hatsune itself, as well as major domestic and international opponents, were all put on his desk when Gu Mojie went home.

Lei Jun, Ye Weilun, and Gu Yong, these bigwigs, took advantage of the opportunity to give Gu Mojie a drink, and talked about this year's various financial reports that they couldn't understand, and there were many unexpected interesting things.

Ye Weilun held the wine glass and sighed: "It's really crazy! I didn't expect Tengxun to be beaten down by us, but the financial report looked so good! In the last quarter of 2011, net profit increased by 80% year-on-year! In the first quarter of this year, it increased by 106% year-on-year! It's too exaggerated, the users are not rising, and the profits are rising. Last year, the net profit was 17 billion yuan, of which 6.5 billion yuan was in the fourth quarter. According to this momentum, it will not be good to make trouble this year, and it will be able to rush 30 billion yuan throughout the year. ”

Lei Jun sneered disdainfully: "This profit is toxic, they are consuming the loyalty of users, and they make a lot of money by selling fast food online games before users are disgusted - this is the so-called 'No. 1 company is crazy about layout, and No. 2 company is crazy about making money'." ”

When a company fails to rush the layout, only by quickly realizing it can it be worthy of the previous rounds of investors - with a large amount of profits, it is good to pay crazy dividends to shareholders, otherwise we can't watch the company's market value fall back again after a few years.

At the moment when Tengxun's attempt to lay out failed, people who know a little bit of capital can imagine that the voice of twist vine in the board of directors of Tengxun is not so high. There are things he doesn't want to do.

Gu Mojie just got off the plane, didn't look at the financial reports of his peers, and asked casually: "Then have you seen it, how has the number of users changed?" ”

Ye Weilun remembered seeing this data, but he couldn't remember it clearly, so he quickly took out his mobile phone and glanced at it, "Oh, the number of effective users has dropped from 490 million at the peak in July last year to 460 million today." According to this trend, it is estimated that it will fall to 420 million by the end of the year. ”

Gu Mojie smiled confidently: "Isn't this over!" The total number of Internet users in China is still growing at a rate of 80 million per year, and the number of mobile Internet users is growing by 150 million per year. This increase can be maintained for at least three years, and then it will slow down as the majority of the population uses the Internet.

What is the concept that Tengxun can lose 30 or 40 million users with a net increase of 80 million netizens per year? It shows that WeChat and QQ have no new blood at all. Every time he releases a brain-dead online game, or every time he launches a brain-dead website that focuses on school flower bodyguards, soldiers, and village doctors, and small H texts, it forces millions of original swing users to leave angrily. ”

When users start to fall, it is not when profits also start to fall, and there is a delay between the two. The decline in operating profits may be about two years later than the inflection point of user decline.

Gu Mojie and a few henchmen combined, they all felt that if Tengxun followed this path of making money and turning over the capital, its profit peak may appear in 2013, with a net profit of about 40 billion yuan. In 2014, it is possible that it will be the same or slightly lower than in 2013, but by 2015, this data will definitely start to decline at a rate of at least 15%~20% per year for several years. And if there are no other variables and remedial measures, the number of effective users of Tengxun may fall to about 300 million in the next three years - the rest are basically people who like toxinized milk powder, primary school students, and people who like to make appointments.

In another time and space, the annual profit has never exceeded 30 billion yuan, even if it is this peak year, because it needs to spend a lot of money to continue the layout, and some of the too brain-dead quick money products they know can not be earned. Nowadays, although the disk is much smaller than the same period in history, it is still possible to double the net income in line with the scruples of "squeezing the residual value of loyal users to the state of drug residue and no longer caring about the loss of users".

At that time, Tengxun has transformed from a company that plays serious social cards to a supplier of low-end brain-dead entertainment products, plus a company that focuses on bubble intermediaries equivalent to another time and space Momo.

This can be considered a successful transformation. At least before its market value declines, all shareholders of Tengxun can accumulate about 100 million yuan of net profits from the annual operation, and use this money to pay dividends.

These dividends, combined with the residual market value of the company after it will be turned into a drug residue in the future, are enough for shareholders who entered the market before the market value of the company fell below $40 billion to protect their capital and make a small profit - and the market value of the company broke the $40 billion line in 2008.

That is to say, the practice of twist vine is also worthy of shareholders, who have invested in rattan news since 08 years, and the money they invest can outperform the interest rate of external financial products. And the earlier the shareholders who enter the market, the more they earn, taking MIH as an example, as a company that entered the market during the Internet bubble in 2001, the return on investment of MIH can still be more than 130 times, and the remaining shareholders who came in before the listing of Hong Kong stocks in 04 years can also have a cumulative benefit of 20~30 times, and shareholders from 04 years to 08 years, the rate of return is 2~6 times respectively.

As for the one who entered the market in 09, it can only be regarded as capital preservation, but it is almost not profitable, or it is better to go to the brokerage to buy funds.

The people who entered the market at a high level and invested money in Tengxun can only be said to be damned, and the money they throw in will lose several percent.

The interests of the early shareholders of Tengxun were finally preserved. As for whether you can learn from Boss Ding of Rhubarb Yi and make a "small and beautiful" company after experiencing a roller coaster, it depends on the creation of twist vines.

It's a pity that it is estimated that the twist vine does not have Boss Ding's compulsion. (To be continued.) )