Chapter 74: Watching the Fire Burn on Chenghuang Mountain
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At the reception, after Gu Mojie and a group of buddies finished chatting about the topic of Fuji Xun, he took the time to read the comments of Forbes and Fortune magazines about him last year - these things were baked when he was in a meeting in the capital, but he didn't have time to read them at that time, and he didn't let his subordinates get them for him. Pen × fun × Pavilion www. biquge。 info
After a few glances, there was only one conclusion left in Gu Mojie's heart: alas, the tree is very popular.
……
There is a conventional law in the Internet industry called Metcalfe's Law.
This rule was proposed by Robert Metcalfe, the founder of 3 companies, and I believe many people know it:
The value of a network product is directly proportional to the square of the number of nodes on the network.
Although I dare not say that this judgment is 100% absolutely accurate, it is almost the same in most cases. And things like the Wall Street Journal or Fortune often use this rule strictly when judging the valuation of Internet companies.
For Hatsune Network Technology in 2011, the valuation given by Fortune at the beginning of the year was $80 billion. Later, ICBC International injected about US$10 billion to provide a huge amount of financial support for the development of Hatsune Network Technology, and allowed Hatsune to successfully acquire NHN, the largest Internet social company in other Asian countries outside the Chinese market. After the completion of this series of developments, it is said that the market value of Hatsune Network Technology will be at least 110 billion US dollars.
However, this figure clearly does not take into account the impact of Metcalfe's law.
The merger of NHN has increased the number of value network nodes of Hatsune Network Technology by at least 20%.
So, according to the classical theory, the Wall Street Journal commentator article argues that according to the 2011 financial report, the valuation of Hatsune Network Technology should not simply be added to $110 billion, but at least $130 billion.
In other words, in 2011, the total market value of Hatsune Network Technology increased by 60%, and a quarter of the new shares came from ICBC International and NHN, so the property value of the original shareholders of Hatsune Network Technology increased by about 25%.
Mr. Gu controls Hatsune through a secondary holding model of the Hatsune Group, and according to the Wall Street Journal's algorithm, Mr. Koo increased his personal wealth by about $8 billion in 2011 by relying solely on the value added by Hatsune Technology.
"Fortune" and "Forbes" are more detailed, and they have also picked out more than a billion dollars of growth in other areas that are not very outstanding.
As a result, on the list of the world's richest people in March 2012 based on the 2011 financial report, Gu Mojie's personal wealth increased from more than 65 billion in the previous year to 74.6 billion. The ranking has rushed from 9th in the world to 7th in the world.
1 senior in the investment world and 1 senior in the oil industry were squeezed down by him.
At present, the six people in front of him are Bill Gates, the boss of Mexico Telecom, Warren Buffett, the boss of Oracle (this person has many other investments, including holding a part of the shares of Google's parent company), and 2 people in the oil industry such as Mobil.
Gu Mojie can even predict that in another year, there will be 3 people in front of him - the card is now in his hand, this year is the US election year, and it must not be detonated before the election, but once the election is completed, O'Dark Horse is re-elected, and he can detonate it as soon as possible.
The news he got from above was that the state was sure to hand over the detonated black cauldron to the Tsar Pu to carry it. So next year, no matter how the intermediate process works, the Americans will definitely collapse global oil prices against Russia.
Therefore, the two oil tycoons who are still in front of him will collapse without a fight when the asset value is then gone, and they will automatically fall to a place where even Gu Mojie's back can't be seen.
And the current total assets of the Oracle boss are only not much more than Gu Mojie, and the gap between the two is only more than a billion US dollars, which can be said to be between the two sides, and in 2012, Gu Mojie is estimated to be able to dry up while lying down and waiting for value-added.
At that time, Gu Mojie will only have Bill Gates, Warren Buffett and a Mexican telecommunications tycoon in front of him.
Life is really lonely like snow.
……
Receiving the wind feast, it is said that there are no flowers to play in the sky. After Gu Mojie drank too much that day, he went home to rest for two days and returned to work.
Since Gu Mojie set the tone in November last year, Hatsune Group has been insisting on "making its own platform, paving it there and waiting for others to connect, and waiting for cutting-edge entrepreneurs from all walks of life to use Hatsune as a platform and a tool, and Hatsune will cooperate with them to start a business".
There are many small things that don't need to be taken care of by Mo Jie, but they are also well organized.
Last year, many enterprises in the O2O circle and the original Internet financial circle that took the "primary Internet" route to start a business led to peers beginning to reflect on it, change the route of the Hatsune system, and re-take the road of entrepreneurship.
The main tone set by Gu Mojie is more and more regarded as a model by people in the circle, and his credibility is getting higher and higher.
The line that Ahri adheres to is that Ahri eats a large share, and Ahri dominates, absorbing talents and resources from traditional industries from all walks of life to cooperate with Ahri.
The line adhered to by Hatsune is that the original entrepreneurial team holds a large share, and even the traditional industrial groups that have already been formed hold a large share, and carry out a gradual "network transformation".
The transformation of "O2O" and "offline industry networking" is a disruptive and destructive innovation.
The transformation of Hatsune is gradual, and does not attempt to completely subvert the traditional pattern of the field - Hatsune is only committed to doing those things that the original giants in the field cannot do without the help of the Internet, big data, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence tools. They will not seek further monopoly, and even interfere and grab things that others have already done well.
For example, Ahri transformed Didi, and then adjusted and expanded in 2011, and finally inevitably entered the stage of subsidizing and burning money to expand users in 2012.
It's just that because there is no two-horse war in this time and space, the subsidy is relatively small, and no one compares with Ma Feng to burn money.
However, the purpose of this kind of money-burning is to completely squeeze out the travel market, even the car rental and taxi market that is currently mature.
In terms of Hatsune, at the beginning of 2012, it also invested in a travel platform, which can be regarded as following the trend. But Hatsune's investment is much smaller and doesn't burn money aggressively. Only focus on doing ride-hailing, carpooling, temporary emergency plus money to call a car, before the emergence of Internet big data tools, there is no way to do and does not exist business, really focus on solving the "Internet" technology before the emergence of the business, users really feel the hidden pain points of the business, to facilitate the people as the only purpose.
Because there is no subsidy hard grab, Hatsune's taxi software does not have a high number of users, but the user experience is really good.
Hatsune spends most of her energy on the collection of big data on the credit of driving users, and through the repeated optimization of the weight algorithm, it is possible to determine whether a driver has a bad driving record and whether there is a possibility of personal threat to the female passenger who temporarily carpools. Optimize the ride-hailing matching process to ensure that people who really have urgent matters can get a ride as quickly as possible as long as they add money.
In just two or three months, although the user scale of Hatsune's ride-hailing platform is less than one-tenth of that of Didi, which has burned money for a long time, people who have used it say that the speed of calling a car is fast, the efficiency of spelling orders is high, and there have never been complaints of personal assault or indecent assault against female passengers.
Taxi companies in major cities across the country are very friendly to the platform in which Hatsune invests.
To put it bluntly, Gu Mojie doesn't want to make a lot of money with this kind of thing, he just hopes that he won't make enemies needlessly, let alone do the kind of thing that doesn't make a big cake and his opponent rushes to cut the cake in the existing cake box.
Of course, it's not that Ma Feng is just a dog, it's just that Gu Mojie now has enough worth to lie down and win, so he can naturally be relatively more inclusive and stable, without worrying about the doubts of major shareholders.
This is true for the ride-hailing market, and the same is true for the takeaway market. After Didi Dache fully helped Alipay to go mobile, Ma Feng set his sights on relying on Ele.me to deepen the frequency of Alipay's mobile payment.
Then, unsurprisingly, the takeaway market became the second O2O payment field in China that began to lose money and burn money to subsidize.
Gu Mojie still did not follow up on the subsidy, but quietly used the existing volume of Hatsune Wallet to invest in a small app that helps users optimize the time of ordering food and the time of consumption at the store.
However, a third party in the field of food delivery has finally come in, disrupting the situation, and also making the subsidy war that has not appeared in the taxi market appear here.
Boss Li found that Du Niang had finally fallen behind in the mobile Internet era, and he was already uneasy, and he originally saw that Hatsune had freed his hand, and he thought that Hatsune might follow Ahri to engage in a subsidy war, but Gu Mojie didn't do it.
If there is a three-way fight to wash users, Boss Li is still determined to burn money, for fear that the input will be large and the output will be small. And Gu Mojie's restraint in the field of taxis made Boss Li completely see Gu Mojie's routine. Then when the opportunity in the takeaway market came, Boss Li did not hesitate to take out tens of billions of yuan in cash, ready to play O2O.
Baidu takeaway has been established in Baidu's self-operated model, and the subsidy is not lost to Ele.me, Baidu wallet, a long-overdue product, finally tried to enter the market to snatch the status of the third wallet product in China after the WeChat wallet went downhill.
The blind scuffle was in full swing in the second quarter of 2012, and countless chaos of takeaway and taxi began to appear:
For example, a taxi driver uses a taxi software to take orders, and after receiving it, he uses B taxi software such as Didi to brush it again, because Didi only gives a subsidy on money, but the customer screening efficiency when taking orders is not as good as another app with a better algorithm.
Or maybe the female passenger heard about the example of the female being violated and indecent in the carpooling of N Didi, and did not believe in Didi's safety, so she chose to use Hatsune to call a male driver with good credit data, and then let the male driver use Didi to officially take orders and swipe the subsidy.
The chaos in the field of food delivery is endless. Countless diners who are obviously dine-in also know that there are discounts for takeout on the app, and they pay for takeaway in person in the store. After Lao Ma and Boss Li discovered these chaos, they had to forcibly detect the user's GPS positioning and block those swiping orders that "the geographical location of the diner and the shopkeeper coincided", which made the user experience a lot worse.
But even this trick is useless, because soon the dine-in diners choose to order before going out, and then use the customary hidden notes with the boss, so that the boss directly orders the delivery but does not deliver it, and the diners will come to eat in person. As for the delivery fee required for swiping orders, the bosses immediately contacted their unemployed relatives and pulled one as a zombie number delivery person to deal with this kind of order.
Money is burning like crazy, and traditional users who refuse to access the Internet soon fall into the situation of "can't get a taxi without a smartphone, and can't order takeout without a smartphone". China's mobile internet penetration rate entered an even more frantic expansion in 2012 than the year before.
Hatsune burned the least amount of money at this stage, and watched his peers make the entire Chinese Internet circle bigger in such a measured manner.
I don't know who will be the last reaper. (To be continued.) )