Chapter 81: The Reaper in the Storm
In terms of actual transaction efficiency, the experience store is still relatively low compared with today's online shopping and operator channels. The reason is mainly that there is only one telecom Tianyi version of the "original heart" mobile phone.
For most people, the core stickiness of what mobile phone to use is the mobile phone number and card, not the mobile phone hardware. Those who have used mobile numbers for several years, before the permission of "porting with numbers", it is unlikely that they will recklessly change the number and package of Tianyi because of the better performance of Tianyi's mobile phone.
The biggest use of the experience store is to allow those who only use mobile numbers to try it out and see the performance of the 'original heart' to lay a foundation for the future.
The rapid marketing of "Chuxin" is mainly due to the "users who buy new mobile phones for the first time", as well as those target groups who play the sentimental card.
As the world's first "Android mobile phone", "Chuxin" also occupies two additional commanding heights -
Within this year, if China Telecom and China Unicom want to choose the contract machine of the Android system, there is only one "original heart" to choose; In addition to the "original intention", there are only a few old system mobile phones of South Korea's Samsung, and the network segment barely meets the requirements of Telecom and Unicom; And other domestic mobile phones are obviously out of play in 08.
Gu Mojie, who still remembers the power of the "year-end KPI assessment push" of state-owned enterprise operators, can fully believe:
By the end of December, the "Chuxin" mobile phone can also expect an additional surprise, to see how far Telecom and Unicom can take Gu Mojie's "fairy and chicken dog".
β¦β¦
A week has passed since the experience store plan, and the long queues in front of the major experience stores in China have begun to ease.
Feliro also took a three-month break after giving birth.
In the past 20 days, she has completely recovered from exercising, and has also used a lot of famous maintenance products and physiotherapy techniques. While getting rid of stretch marks and sagging, I also re-trained the vest line. I weighed myself the day before yesterday, and the girl who was 1.7 meters down to 98 pounds.
I can finally go back to China to meet people.
However, Gu Mojie inevitably got busy again.
It happened on September 7, US time, and September 8, China time, when the first batch of stores at the Chuxin Experience Store had just opened for a weekend.
On this day, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced the nationalization of two-house bonds!
Freddie and Fannie Mae, which were once prosperous, collapsed with a bang.
Although there are early signs of the instability of the two-house bonds, the outside world has never known what kind of process it will be. At least the vast majority of ordinary financial market practitioners do not feel that the matter has reached the point of nationalization.
Overnight, Wall Street was in mourning.
In addition, the U.S. residential mortgage investment company filed for bankruptcy protection on August 6. After a month of intense volatility, the US financial markets have finally reached the moment of total collapse.
The legendary financial crisis of '08 is coming.
After repeated calculations with Ambassador Redder and Group CFO Gu Yong, Gu Mojie took into account the risks of the U.S. capital market in the near future. Although he can't remember the specific time of the collapse like other reborn people who memorize historical knowledge, as long as he knows the general trend, he can still make a macro profit.
In order to wait for this day, Gu Mojie kept the remaining four or five billion yuan of liquidity after the IPO in hand, and also moved an additional part of the advance payment originally reserved for the cooperation between China Telecom and China Unicom, so that if there is a real need, 7 billion yuan of acquisition funds can be raised.
As long as there is a financial crisis in the United States, there will certainly be a large number of assets that will fall across the board. Picking out the high-quality assets and buying them at the bottom will undoubtedly make a lot of money, and it can also optimize the long-term business layout of Hatsune.
Gu Mojie took care of his return to China with a phone call, and announced to Ye Weilun and Lu Wenjun and other high-level officials that he would postpone his return to China for another half a month.leenu/books/15/15308/
The first evil concubine in history.
As the most sensitive and sensitive general of Hatsune Group in the capital market, Gu Yong has already alerted his sense of smell and helped Gu Mojie find prey that he can covet in advance.
Fei Liluo, who has recovered her body, has also completely devoted herself to her work.
Seattle didn't have anything to buy, so Gu Mojie took Fei Liluo, Ye Minru and Gu Yongjiang to board a flight south and fly directly to California.
In Silicon Valley and Hollywood, there are plenty of opportunities waiting for him.
β¦β¦
At the Beverly Hills Villa, after a few days of brief investigation, a group of people got together for a small meeting to summarize the latest situation.
Gu Mojie: "Although the financial crisis came a little late, the intensity exceeded our imagination. In terms of acquisition plans and timelines, it is necessary to make adjustments. Sister Xiaoru, you can first tell you about a series of recent trends in the US Treasury Department and the financial community. β
Ye Minru flipped out a memo and explained in detail:
"The source of this crisis is actually the increase in the bad debt rate of real estate mortgage loans, which began to appear in April last year, and all kinds of junk bonds and repackaged securitized assets have been repeatedly pledged, which has worsened the situation to the extreme. Looking back from the present, it is obvious that the Bush administration at that time wanted to cover the lid and cover this matter until the end of Bush Jr.'s presidency, and then throw the mess to O'dark Horse.
This is not without precedent, and the dot-com bubble actually appeared seven years ago, when the Democratic Party's Clinton term was about to expire. However, Clinton covered the lid relatively well, and the bubble did not burst until January 20, 2001, when he handed over the presidency to George W. Bush.
Only two months after Bush took office, the NASDAQ collapsed in March 01, and then there was the 'Internet winter' that lasted for nearly three years in history, so that Bush Jr. had to hastily induce 9-11 and use military adventures to divert the turbulent internal contradictions at home. This can also be clearly seen from the timetable for Chinese Internet companies to list in foreign countries.
Ding Sanshi, who briefly became the richest man in China in 05, and his NetEase was listed on the NASDAQ in 2000, which was the last train on the eve of the 'Internet winter'. And Baidu and Tengxun, who didn't catch the last train, were equivalent to waiting for an all-night in the cold winter. Then it was not until 04 and 05 that it was listed on the Hong Kong stock market and the US stock market respectively. From 01~03, there are almost no new Internet companies listed.
And now it seems that this incident is obviously the improper handling of the incident by Bush Jr., or that the level of covering the lid is not as good as that of Clinton. Not only did it make the bubble bigger, but it also failed to burst after January next year, and smashed directly on his own hands. β
These historical facts, the people here basically know, but they haven't connected these points in detail, and Ye Minru explained them in such a way that it is a lot clearer.
Ye Minru took a sip of water, and continued to pick a few important time nodes and said: "At present, the timetable for this crash is like this:
On August 6, the U.S. residential mortgage investment company first filed for bankruptcy;
Then, because of the spread of the credit crisis, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were killed on September 7;
Just another week later, on the 15th of this month, Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest investment bank in the United States, also filed for bankruptcy; On the same day, Merrill Lynch, which ranked first before Lehman, also had a crisis, but fortunately was acquired by 'Bank of America' before filing for bankruptcy.
The next day, September 16, the American International Group (AIG) was in crisis and was rescued from a near-death state by the U.S. Treasury Department with an emergency short-term loan of $85 billion before filing for bankruptcy. The price was that AIG, like Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, was nationalized and taken over.
Finally, there is the news that happened this morning: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, the first and second largest investment banks in the United States, officially reorganized from investment banks to ordinary commercial banks, giving up the business scope of investment banks.leenu/books/15/15309/
The myth of martial arts. β
From the collapse of two houses to the full-scale collapse, it was completed in just 14 days.
The three largest mortgage subprime operators in the United States, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and AIG, were all nationalized by the U.S. Treasury Department.
Of the four largest investment banks in the United States, the fourth one died, the third one was acquired, and the first and second ones announced that they would quit the rivers and lakes and no longer be investment banks, but concentrate on commercial banks.
Such a huge scale and intensity is not unassuming. Industry insiders say this has never happened in at least three decades.
Americans have finally paid the price for their inflated financial virtual economy for n years. All kinds of "asset securitization" packaging games are finally rotten when people find that the packaging skin is far more expensive than the goods inside.
There is no doubt that in the past two weeks, the United States has suffered not only from the financial market, but also from various real economies and the Internet economy, and those industries that are highly dependent on financing have suffered a series of crashes.
So far, the impact on the difficulty of financing the real economy has not immediately affected the world, after all, the United States has only been in trouble for two weeks.
But everyone knows that in October, at most November, all countries in the world will be affected by the aura of dollar hegemony, or by the various late-stage bailouts of the US Treasury.
After listening to Ye Minru's explanation of the current situation, Gu Mojie immediately turned to Gu Yongjiang for advice: "Brother Yong, what do you think?" Shall we do it now, or will we wait and there will be more crashes? This must be determined immediately and is related to the company's core earnings. β
Gu Yongjiang rubbed the unshaved stubble on his cheeks, thought for a while, and then gave his opinion: "I don't think we can wait any longer, it's best to get rid of the companies I contacted a while ago in the next two days, and we can't delay it past October at the latest -- an important signal is that five days ago, that is, on the 16th, the U.S. Treasury Department sent $85 billion to save AIG."
How is it possible for the US Treasury to come up with $85 billion all at once? Okay, or to put it another way, even if the Treasury Department is currently able to get $85 billion, how can it guarantee that AIG is the last mega financial institution that needs to spend tens of billions of dollars to back it up? What if there was another case like AIG? Or even 2~3 more? Did you ask the US Treasury for food?
So, there is only one explanation: the Bush administration is already preparing a new round of quantitative easing, or at least a bailout. In layman's terms, you can understand it as a domestic 'opening a money printing machine to solve the problem'. Of course, the Fed is privately owned, and the Americans are slightly different from us in the way they use the money printing press, and the nature is the same. β
Gu Mojie summarized Gu Yongjiang's analysis and condensed a point of view: "In other words, do you think that the current undervaluation of asset prices in the new economy and other industries that are highly dependent on financial financing in the United States is already bottoming out?" β
"Yes. The bailout may not have a practical effect, but it can certainly stabilize people's minds and combat panic selling in the short term. β
"Okay, then let's take a look at the target units we talked about a while ago and prioritize the bottom picking."
After that, the four of them conspired in the Beverly Villa, and the investment advisors and asset appraisers brought by Gu Yong were not idle outside, and the entire capital layer of Hatsune was running at high speed, preparing for a harvest.
β¦β¦
Because she was waiting to give birth, Feliro lived in Hollywood for a whole year. The year's exposure to California's economic community has clearly given her a thorough understanding of this aspect. After some debate, Feliro's opinion prevailed first:
"In my opinion, these companies within the scope of the cultural and creative industry should be listed among the first acquisition targets. History tells us that after every recession of the real economy, the consumption of cultural and creative products will usher in a*. On the one hand, it is because the government will support the cultural industry, hoping to create new economic growth points when the manufacturing and financial industries are in recession;
On the other hand, a large number of people have more time to go to the movies and play games in a state of depression and unemployment.leenu/books/15/15310/
The scum of the last days must be good. Moreover, watching movies and playing games will be more delightful about real life. The first rise of Hollywood in the 1930s relied on the Great Depression of 29~33.
Moreover, there is another great characteristic of cultural and creative product companies, that is, the investment payback cycle of start-up companies is very slow, and they are extremely dependent on the financing of the capital market - large-scale films may take two years to make and sell them, and in these two years, they can only survive by pulling investment. Unless it's an aterfall model (which can be translated as 'artificial waterfall model'), small companies are dead without financial capital support, except for large studios that shoot and release many movies every year.
In addition to movies, this is also the case for music agencies, game companies, industrial design/art design companies that provide packaging for cultural and creative products, and even online literature companies. It's just that Cheng dΓΉ is decreasing from the film company to the film company.
Moreover, Brother Yong also said just now that Bush Jr. is very likely to ignore the laws of the market and announce a bailout of the financial market without restraint; As long as the market is bailed out, they will definitely 'learn from history' and introduce a series of support plans for the cultural industry and the virtual item industry." Once this series of cardiotonic agents comes out, no matter what the effect is, many small companies will definitely be psychologically encouraged, and it is not easy for us to lower the price. β
There was no objection to Feliro's much-sinked and carefully examined remarks. Gu Mojie also followed Fei Liluo's meaning on the discussion list, raised some priorities, and crossed out some relatively inferior assets that had no money to consider for the time being.
Receiving encouragement, Velillo gradually became in a state of flux, pointing to a large film company at the top of the list and saying:
"First of all, this Hollywood independent film company called 'Legendary Pictures', I think it has a lot of potential for acquisition. The company was established in October '05; Its parent company is called Legend Entertainment, which was established in 04. As of '06, Legendary Entertainment's assets were valued at about $500 million, of which Legendary Pictures accounted for about 60%, or $300 million.
What's even more dangerous is that Legendary Entertainment's investors are mainly from private shareholders and hedge fund investors on Wall Street, and it is typical of private equity firms as brokers. Such a company, once it encounters a financial crisis, has a very poor ability to resist risks, and the shareholders behind it may be forced to withdraw their capital at any time due to credit bankruptcy. β
Gu Mojie coughed lightly: "Well, we can't just look at who will die, we also have to make sure that people are high-quality assets." Hollywood can find at least dozens of independent film companies that are at risk of breaking the capital chain, and we can't all copy them. First of all, they have to have results and dry goods. β
In the face of Gu Mojie's doubts, Fei Liluo did not hesitate to clarify: "Of course, this legendary pictures has dry goods, they signed a 7-year cooperation agreement with Warner Bros. in 05, and the scope of cooperation is up to 40 films, the legend is mainly responsible for shooting and production, and Warner Bros. is in charge of distribution."
At present, the seven or eight films that have been completed have a good reputation in Hollywood, although there are no masterpieces that can win the Oscar, at least they are guaranteed at the box office. "The Batman Series", "300 Spartan Warriors", and "Superman Returns" are a bit vulgar, but they are all box office masterpieces; Although no one has heard of "Don't Mess with Ants" in China, it was also a rare animated film that applied cutting-edge new technology at that time, and "Banshee in the Water" was also a fantasy work with style.
Moreover, this legendary film company contacted Activision Blizzard at the end of 06 - at that time, Blizzard had just revealed that it was interested in considering adapting World of Warcraft into a movie, and Legendary Pictures came to the door to bid. Among the film companies that approached Blizzard, the final evaluation was that Legendary Pictures had the strongest comprehensive control ability in this kind of fantasy-themed movies. If Blizzard hadn't finally canceled the adaptation plan with a false shot, it would have been this company that won the bid at that time. β
The example given by Feliro is actually very unconvincing, mainly because the legendary pictures in 08 are really weak compared to future generations, except for the "Batman" trilogy, they have not been able to make a real box office masterpiece that is enough to make Chinese household names.
If you give this company another three or four years, when the box office masterpieces such as "Inception", "Pacific Rim" and "Godzilla" come out, even if Feliro doesn't explain to Gu Mojie, just report the title, Gu Mojie will agree to buy this film company without hesitation.
Now, it still has to be explained, who made the legendary boss Thomas. Tour's life is not good, and he was targeted by Gu Mojie at this weak point in time.
Gu Mojie pondered for a moment, and at the same time instructed Fei Liluo and Gu Yong: "Then you two combined, how much money will it cost to win Legendary Pictures?" β
Fei Liluo and Gu Yong looked at each other, discussed softly for a while, and finally reported by Gu Yong.leenu/books/15/15311/
Ambiguous masters on campus.
"We analyzed the shareholding structure of Legendary Pictures, considering that there are too many Wall Street private equity funds among the shareholders of Legendary Pictures, and it is very likely that they will be affected by the financial turmoil and withdraw their capital. I think that at most 3 billion yuan, or 450 million US dollars, I can be sure of winning - I mean this month, I have already privately stabilized them for two rounds in the early stage, and I have been in contact since the day Freddie Mac ended. β
"Okay, just 3 billion, I'll give you discretion." Gu Mojie made a decision very arrogantly, it was similar to buying groceries.
The 7 billion yuan of hot money that was squeezed out with great effort went to a small half at once.
There are still 4 billion left, how to spend it?
Gu Mojie was like a shark, and continued to sweep down the companies on the list.
"There is no need to buy music studios at the moment, the record distribution companies are too big, and there is no capital of more than one billion dollars. It's good to get an online music synchronization app company - there is a company called Lala Music, which has good technology and a good user base, and it is estimated that it can be bought out for 1~200 million US dollars......"
"Google's smart hardware division has plans to divest a team that was originally prepared for Google's own brand Android phones, as well as some technical reserves. If we are interested, we can get it within the price of 2~300 million US dollars. β
"And Tony. Federer's Industrial Design Studio, although it is only a studio, was originally outsourced for Apple's, iPod, and K series, but now it is also difficult to operate because it has canceled orders during the crisis, and if it can be acquired......"
"Buy, buy, buy! These are all small amounts of money, and they are all bought. β
Gu Mojie's wallet shrank rapidly, from 4 billion yuan to 2.5 billion, 2 billion, and 1 billion......
There really was only a little bit of money left.
The film company and the music company were not enough to buy, and Feliro picked a software company from the spare tire list at the back as an add-on.
"Can you consider this hisper-s? It is a newly emerging developer of smartphone security software, and it only took the angel round in 07 and the A round this year. The original plan was to develop mobile phone security software for Apple, but the iOS system was relatively closed in terms of security, and a project was scrapped, and now funds are tight. Later, I was preparing to serve Microsoft's in-mobile, but it didn't get up.
If we want, we can take this company for no more than $100 million, and their development team is definitely the best in this field in the United States, which can make up for the shortcomings of our own cloud security development team and lack of experience on mobile phones. β
Hatsune Network Technology, a subsidiary of the Hatsune Group, is the first company in the world to do active cloud security, and it is definitely not afraid of any company in the world in the field of PC security. But on the mobile side, Hatsune is also just getting started. Gu Mojie understood a little and confirmed that the technical strength of this hisper-s is definitely really expected, which can represent the most advanced level in the world at the moment.
However, is this worth buying Gu Mojie?
Another example: when the Newport News shipyard is dying, will Jiangnan take a controlling stake? Of course not, Jiangnan will only watch it die, and then collect the body and dig up people.
"Since the brand itself has no value, it is not wasted. Push it, give it a good time, and we'll just collect the corpse and dig up people. It is estimated that if you count the incentive equity of the backbone, you will not need 20 million US dollars. The copyrights and other software assets they have already obtained have also been directly acquired at a discount. β
Feliro took a slight breath and immediately reacted: "Okay...... This is also a solution. β
"If you have an extra $70 million or eighty million, forget it, just put it on as liquidity. You don't have to take this opportunity to spend all your money. (To be continued.) )