At the end of last week, the central bank once again announced an interest rate cut on Sunday night, which made many stock commentators once again tear up the analysis and research report they had just written.

Fortunately, I was more bullish last week, so I didn't overturn the stock review I just wrote. However, the stock market is destined to be confusing for the next period of time, so it is better to be cautious.

After the market received the news of interest rate cuts this week, the market rose first and then declined, and then withered after two days of bullish anger.

At the same time, the differentiation of individual stocks in the market has also begun to become more serious, and the small and medium-sized board of the gem has been opening high and going high, even if there are rumors that the CSRC has interviewed fund managers to suppress the gem, it has not been able to shake its crazy trend.

At the same time, the trend of heavyweight stocks, especially financial stocks, bancassurance securities, is very weak.

Non-bank ETFs, which were once hotly speculated, have not risen for more than a month, while the most heavily weighted banking sector has performed even worse.

In this bull market, IB, as the leader of the banking sector, has fallen to the position when the previous wave of market started.

All kinds of signs show that the price-earnings ratio of China's stock market is indeed no match for the market dream rate.

The root cause is the blindness of retail investors and the follow-up of funds.

In fact, it is not the first time that the fund industry has huddled together to warm up. As early as 530 in 2007, stockholders across the country panicked and shouted that the stock market bubble was about to burst.

Then the panicked fund managers hurriedly exchanged all the chips in their hands for relatively safe banks and other large-cap heavyweights.

The logic of Chinese fund managers is actually very simple: the bull market small-cap stocks must rise more than the large-cap stocks, but conversely, if the bull market is over, then the so-called high-cap stocks will fall hard, and eventually the small-cap stocks with serious bubbles will definitely fall badly.

Based on this view, when the post-530 in '07, fund managers began to sell high-priced small-cap stocks and buy a lot of heavyweights.

As a result, during that time, the 28 phenomenon in the market was very serious, and while individual stocks fell in large areas, heavyweights rose all the way, and as a result, pushed up the broader market index.

In the end, the ironic all-time high of 6124 points was created in this bearish atmosphere.

Why are we here today looking back at this history in detail? Because history repeats itself.

Through the analysis of the trend of the market after 530 in 2007, we can get a very clear signal, that is, before the end of the bull market, there will definitely be a wave of large-cap heavyweight stocks.

The modern broader market is of course still in the correction, but at the same time the heavyweights are falling and the small-caps are rising. So, as I've said a few times before, there's still a long way to go before the bull market ends.

Recently, a lot of people have asked me to recommend stocks, recommend sectors. But there's really nothing to do right now!

There is never any justification for stocks to rise in a bull market, and there really doesn't make sense to say anything about it unless you worship me to the point where you can buy it without even looking at it.

To be honest, if I really knew which section would go up or which stock would double next, I would have bought it myself, and I would still be here to talk nonsense with everyone?

However, my mentality has always been very good, anyway, in this wave of bull market, the profit ratio is higher than mine, the assets are basically not as much as me, and the basic profit ratio is not flattering if there are more assets than me.

The most important thing in stock trading is to maintain a normal mindset. Once you're impatient, there's a good chance you're going to make a mistake.

Based on the current market pattern, it is likely that the broader market will continue its current correction trend in the next two weeks, during which large-cap stocks will continue to be sluggish and small-cap stocks will continue to move higher.

Then it is expected that at the beginning of June, the financial sector is estimated to return to the king, pushing the market to 6,000 points in one go.

If nothing else, you should be able to see 5,500 points in early August, and if you're lucky, you might even see a new all-time high before the end of the summer holidays.

Of course, this is just a relatively likely result that I analyzed according to the cycle theory, and only God knows what the final script of A-shares will be.

When the second half of the bull market begins, the plate rotation will accelerate. So don't ask me which sector is better, since it's a bull market, there is no sector that doesn't rise, the difference is just which one rises first and which one rises later.

If anything, the best investment strategy for the next few months is to list the indices of all the major hot sectors, and then look at the ones that have risen more in the past period of time, and then exclude them. The ones that have risen less in the past period of time can be focused on.

To put it simply, it is to bet heavily on one or more stagflation sectors, wait for the plate rotation to start rising, and then sell it at a high price, and then quickly switch to the next stagflation sector.

Of course, this kind of operation has high requirements for investors, and requires investors to have a very keen sense of smell and technical analysis ability. So for novices who are not very capable, find a stagflation sector to cover the first half of the year.

Finally, regarding position control, it is necessary to reiterate one point here, do not increase positions, do not increase leverage.

This is something that many retail investors, especially newcomers who have not experienced a bear market, cannot understand.

Many investors ask me, didn't you say that the market will rise to 6,000 or even 8,000 points? It's only over 4,000 points now, why don't we increase our position? Doesn't that contradict your predictions?

Indeed, there is a high probability that the market will rise to 6,000 or even 8,000 points in the future.

But as a person whose stock market has risen from 2,000 points to more than 4,000 points and has not yet filled his position, or when the market has risen to 4,000 points, he has just woken up from a dream and just thought of coming to speculate in stocks, who gives you the confidence to ensure that you can clear your position and exit at 6,000 or 8,000 points?

The stock market is a big casino, those who lose want to make over, and those who win want to win again. If it were so easy to stop in time, there would not be so many stories of blood and tears in the history of China's stock market.

All I can tell you is that my father fell on the bull market three times in a row in 1993, 2000, and 2007.

Especially in 2007, from 10,000 to 120,000, and finally from 120,000 to minus 30,000.

In fact, in those three waves of bull market, if my dad had kept his initial position, his general ledger would have been profitable proportionally. But it was because I couldn't resist increasing my position in the late stage of the bull market, which finally led to a dismal end.

As Warren Buffett said, be greedy when others are fearful, and be fearful when others are greedy.

If you can't control your greed in a bull market, then you are likely to end up losing in your own hands.

That's all for today, Jing Ke assassinated the King of Qin......

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