In the first half of the week, small-cap stocks on the ChiNext board rose sharply, and in the second half of the week, the weight of the Shanghai stock market, especially the return of the king of bank stocks, and many stocks that had previously pulled back sharply began to rebound strongly.

As a result, the Shanghai Composite Index finally hit a new high on Friday in the form of a gaping long white candlestick.

What to do after the market hits a new high is definitely the most concerned issue for the majority of stockholders. Will the next market start the second half of the main rising wave by 6,000 points, or will it start a sideways adjustment again?

Last week, almost all investors, including me, believed that the market would continue to adjust this week, because there were 20 new shares issued this week, and according to the previous experience, it has almost become a habit for the market to fall during the new stock issuance.

In addition, judging from various cyclical technical theories, the market should still have some time to rebound from a cyclical point of view, so almost no one is optimistic about the stock market this week.

And the result is ...... Naturally, it was a surprise to everyone.

In fact, the trend of the market is in line with the norm in the abnormality. Think about it, what is the reason for this wave of adjustment since April? The market has risen too much, and there is a need for adjustment in the short term.

More importantly, the main purpose of this wave of adjustment is to shake out the retail investors who made money in the early stage.

In this case, the final trend of the market must be contrary to most people's expectations, otherwise how can it achieve the purpose of shaking positions?

So when everyone is bullish, the main force is going to smash the market desperately, and when everyone is panicked by the upcoming new shares, the rebound is unexpected and reasonable.

So how will the market go in the future? Don't say we don't know, we don't even know the main funds.

Generally speaking, in a word, if retail investors actively buy in the future, the main force will start to smash the market again, what if retail investors hesitate to wait and see? The main force will definitely pull up violently.

So, if you want to know whether the market will rise or fall next week, please tell me first, do the majority of retail investors plan to buy or wait and see?

I'm afraid this question is difficult to answer, even if you guess based on what you say on the Internet, the success rate is not high after all.

So what should we do?

There is a saying that your vision determines your thoughts. If you look down, you can only see under your feet, if you look up you can see a few streets away, if you go up you can look down on the whole city, if you look up you can see the whole universe.

If you are always entangled in whether the market will rise or fall tomorrow, or whether the market will rise or fall next week, then you will be very tired of trading stocks, and the success rate may be miserable.

If you think, predicting the unpredictable stock market is like a weather forecast. So many experts around the world and accurate instruments can't say that they can predict the weather changes correctly the next day, so how can retail investors who only have half a bottle of water in total be able to accurately predict the rise and fall of the stock market in the next few days?

So let me change the question to you, which is the highest monthly average temperature in May or June?

The answer is definitely June, and you don't need to have meteorological knowledge to come to this conclusion, and you don't need to know how to look at satellite cloud images, anyone knows.

Predicting the temperature of the next day is a global problem, but predicting the temperature of the next month is a difficult problem for elementary school students.

I'm giving this example today to show you that once you look far ahead, you will find that predicting the stock market is actually a lot easier all of a sudden.

If you are confused about the future direction of the stock market, you may want to take a longer term of the forecast period, and the answer may be immediately available.

Just like two years ago, when the market index was at 2000 points, I chatted with the prototype character of the martial hero in the novel, and he was very hesitant to buy at 2000 points.

Then I said to him, which is the higher probability that the market will fall to 1,000 points or rise to 3,000 points in the future?

If you have a heavy position now, if the market falls to 1,000 points in the future, you will lose 50%, and if it rises to 3,000 points, you will earn 50%. Gains and losses are comparable, but what about the ratio between opportunities and risks?

Obviously, everyone knew at that time that although the stock market was very sluggish in the first two years, in any case, the probability of the market falling to 1,000 points was really small, and the probability of the market rising to 3,000 points was very high.

And that's exactly what happened.

As a result, he made up his mind, and from 2000 points to now, the profit figure has been earned, and he can't laugh.

Let's put it another way, if my question at that time was, do you think the market will fall to 1900 or rise to 2100 in the future, do you think he will be able to make a decision so easily?

Well, even if he made the right decision at that time, and then he will start to struggle again, will the market rise to 2200 points or fall back to 2000 points in the future?

In fact, I said in the stock review in early May that the market may start the second half of the main rising wave at any time, and the scale of the second half of this wave can reach 2, 3000 points, so the next 2, 300 points of the pullback is actually not too much baht.

I don't know how many people have listened to my words in the past half a month and ambushed them in advance, and how many people have picked up sesame seeds and lost watermelons?

After talking about the market, let's talk about the plate.

Last week, I reminded you that the best strategy for the future market is to look for sectors and individual stocks that are lagging behind. In fact, the financial sector, which had been in the doldrums for a long time, has restarted, and many over-falling stocks have also rebounded.

Next, future stock selection should continue to follow this principle, lurk into the stagflation sector in advance, and then hold patiently.

Of course, if it can be matched with performance growth expectations by the way, and then tell some stories, it may be the next big dark horse stock to double.

Finally, I complained that this week's new army was wiped out, one of the stocks was one number short, and the other was less than 10 numbers......

After reading it, remember to lend me some fortune. ^_^

That's all for this week's stock commentary, Jing Ke assassinated King Qin......

This book was first published from 17k, the first time to see the genuine content!

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