This week has been a week of ups and downs, with the concentrated issuance of new shares, the listing of CSI 500 and SSE 50 stock market futures, the latest GDP data hitting new lows, and of course, Xiao Gang, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, who raised the risk of the stock market, so that new investors should calm down.

With so much news, the broad market index stumbled to 4,300 points.

This week has been a week of ups and downs, with big declines and big gains.

Retail investors were confused by all kinds of news, and a large number of retail investors were slapped on both sides, first buying and falling, and then cutting and rising......

There are more people who have not stepped into the air, but watching the market rush to 4300, the tickets in their hands have not moved at all, and even fallen a lot.

After the market rushed to 4,000 points, it has already begun to enter the second half.

I made a prediction before, that is, where will the top of the stock market be in the future?

I roughly estimated that the maximum possibility is more than 8,000 points, for two reasons.

The first is based on the total size of the stock market.

Last week, I said in a stock review that there is a pattern in the world's stock market, that is, the total market capitalization of a country's stock market is higher than 70% of GDP and less than 150%.

I went to check it two days ago, and when the stock market peaked at 6124 in 2007, the total market capitalization was exactly 1.5 times the GDP at that time. It shows that this theory still has some reference value.

So where is the market capitalization of the stock market reaching 150% of GDP in this bull market? As a rough estimate, it's 8,000 points.

The second algorithm is the proportional algorithm.

The '93 bull market peak was 1,558 points, the 2001 bull market peak was 2,245 points, and the 2007 bull market peak was 6,124 points.

Then, according to the proportional arithmetic algorithm, the top of the bull market in 2015~2016 is:

6124*2245/1558=8824 points.

Of course, it is impossible to accurately predict the broad market index by any method. The above two methods can only calculate an approximate interval.

Generally speaking, the more conservative approach is that the stock market can start to exit when it rises to about 7,000 points, and it must be cleared before 8,000 points.

I believe that when the market rushes to 8,000 points in half a year or a year, all stock analysts will definitely say that the market will be 10,000 points.

Whoever believes it will wait to be a leek.

The stock market is in the first half from 2000 to 4000 points, and from 4000 to 8000 points is the second half.

Now the first half is over and the second half is on.

In my experience over the past decade or so, the second half of a bull market is much more tragic than the stock market.

In the first half of the bull market, there are three states of stockholders, one is to make money, the second is to go short, and the third is to go short.

However, whether it is profitable or short, at least few people lose money.

But the second half of the bull market was different. In the first half, stocks are at the bottom, and there are only two options: up or not up.

In the second half of the bull market, almost all stocks have already risen in a wave. At this time, stock selection is very important, and if you choose well, you can multiply your assets several times.

So, if you don't make any money in the first half of the bull market, or if you haven't made it in yet, don't play in the second half. You can't even earn easy difficulty, and you still want to play hard difficulty?

Of course, if you have a lot of self-confidence and want to come and be a leek for me, I am also welcome. It's better if you don't realize until the end of the Hell difficulty.

After this week's stock market shocks, everyone should have a general impression of the future stock market.

One is a violent shock. A big drop on Wednesday was followed by a sharp rise on Thursday and Friday.

The second is that the hot spot rotation is very fast, almost a day or two to change the hot spot. On Monday, there was just a wave of speculation in bank stocks, on Tuesday small-cap stocks were speculated again, on Thursday they began to speculate on the SSE 50, and on Friday, everyone just chased into the SSE 50 at a high level, and the 50 stocks opened high and went low, and then changed to speculate in the prefix.

If you want to follow the hot spots, you'll never make money. The only way to do this is to lay an ambush in advance and wait for the market to roll call.

At the end of today, I would like to talk about the two issues that everyone is most concerned about.

The first is the north-south car.

After 2000, there was one industry in China that suffered large-scale losses, and that was the glass industry. There is a serious overcapacity.

You said that clothing, toys, and mobile phones can still be exported if there is a surplus, how can glass be exported? I'm not afraid of being broken on the road.

Then the central government patted its head and engaged in solar photovoltaic, new energy, high-tech, and most importantly, this thing is a big consumer of glass.

Then the glass factories that were on the verge of closure were saved.

As we all know, China's solar industry is in surplus, and now 80% of companies are on the verge of bankruptcy.

So what does this story have to do with the North and South Car?

We all know that since last year, real estate has not worked. As soon as the real estate depression occurs, a large number of infrastructure industries such as steel and cement will be finished.

Then we have to think of a place where we can consume infrastructure capacity.

So the central government patted its head again, and the Belt and Road Initiative appeared. The representative of the Belt and Road Initiative is the North and South Car.

So can the Belt and Road Initiative really succeed? I don't dare to say it's so full, but please refer to the current photovoltaics.

How much wind and solar power did China have? Europe and the United States made an anti-dumping move, and all collapsed. Tens of billions of dollars of investment have been wasted.

The Belt and Road Initiative is much larger than that. Investments are all in the hundreds of billions.

But this thing is troublesome to build, but it couldn't be easier to destroy.

When all the central money is invested, Europe and the United States will have 100 ways to kill us. For example, a coup d'état in a small country on the road of the Belt and Road Initiative.

With tens of thousands of kilometers of transportation lines passing through dozens of countries, it is really a matter of minutes to make some small moves.

You see, on the Mexican side, they have signed a contract for high-speed rail agreements, and if they say they are invalid, they will be invalid.

Well, no extension.

Then talk about Xiao Gang's recent words. It can be said that Xiao Gang, the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, is the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission who has the least sense of existence in recent years.

I didn't see what he was doing, and the stock market went up to 4,000 points. Now Xiao Gang has just come out to speak, saying that the stock market is risky, and new investors should be calm.

Correlation with the current stock market at 4300 points, I damn it, isn't that the point of 530 in 07?

Many old stockholders panicked, is the country going to start suppressing the stock market?

I don't think you need to worry too much. The stock market is not there yet. Xiao Gang's original intention is that the stock market can rise, but it is best to rise slowly, you rise to 4,000 points in half a year, and then rise to 8,000 points in half a year, how to play in the future?

If this trend continues, the stock market will not go for a year, and it will return to the bear market again.

In Xiao Gang's ideals, the best state of China's stock market is to rise by 20% every year, rising for 10 consecutive years and 8 years.

But the reality obviously won't be what he wants. China is a closed market, so money will only go where the yield is highest.

For example, there are 100 trillion funds in the Chinese market, and if you predict that the yield of the real estate market is 10%. The stock market is 9%.

Then then, 90 trillion of the 100 trillion must have gone to real estate. The result was a 100% jump in real estate and a 50% plunge in the stock market.

So the future of China's stock market is actually very predictable, that is, it will soar to 8,000 points in the next six months and a year, and then it will take a year to fall back to 3,000 points.

That's all for today, Jing Ke assassinated King Qin...... o_o

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