There was a big shock in the stock market this week, and many news such as strict review of margin trading, lower reserves, and accelerated issuance of new shares had a huge impact on the market.

Judging from the market, the market is likely to enter a halftime period.

The best way to judge the trend of the market is to look at history, because history is always repeating, and everything is so strikingly similar.

In 2005, China's stock market rebounded from 998 to 6124 in 07, announcing an epic bull market.

Judging from the candlestick pattern, this bull market seems to be soaring, but in fact, there are still traces to follow.

First of all, from 998 to more than 1600 points in May 06 is the first wave, which is called the starting wave or recovery wave, which means that the stock market has begun to recover from a continuous bear market.

At this stage, the participants are basically old investors and a very small number of prescient investors, and there are very few new investors.

The biggest feature of this stage is that the trading volume is significantly larger than before.

Sometimes in the bear market, the market also has a large rebound, but if the trading volume is not large, it is most likely fake.

It doesn't matter if the position of this wave corresponds to the current bull market from 2000 points in mid-2014, or you can use the first central bank rate cut in 2014 as the starting point.

Then it ended at 3400 points at the beginning of 2015.

As you can see, the start of the bull market in 07, the first wave rose by more than 60%, and the current round of bull market rose from more than 2000 points to 3400 points, and then began to rest.

Then the stock market enters the second stage, the shock wave or the washing wave. The effect of this wave is to wash out the old shareholders who have come up from the bottom.

The market has risen by 60%, and the old shareholders should be satisfied, and if they are satisfied, they should sell it quickly. If you don't let cautious old stockholders sell and go short, the big market behind will be difficult to go~

In the middle of 2006, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated around 1700 points for 3 months, during which most of the shareholders could not help but be lonely, and would sell their stocks one after another.

The shock wave in this bull market began in early 2015 and fluctuated in the range of 3000~3400 points for 2 months.

After the market is started, the washing is also washed, and the next thing is of course the main rising wave.

The main rising wave of the '07 bull market started at 1700 in the second half of '06 and ended at 4300 in the 530 event of '07.

The corresponding to the current bull market is, of course, now, the market is now in the main rising wave.

The main rising wave is amazing, but it does not mean that it will rise to the top without stopping.

There was an intermission during the main upswing of the bull market in '07, that is, from the end of January '07 to March, with a 2-month correction below 3000 points.

Because for most cautious old stockholders, the reasonable valuation of China's stock market at that time was only 3,000 points, and there would be a bubble if it exceeded 3,000 points.

Therefore, in this position, there are many old shareholders who sell their stocks.

In this round of bull market, everyone generally believes that 4000~4500 points is a reasonable position for the stock market, after all, 8 years have passed since 07.

So at present, there is a high probability that the stock market will experience an intermission of about 1 month in this position.

Of course, the so-called halftime, after the break, of course, there is the second half, how far the second half will go, this is not easy to say, but in my personal opinion, this height may be at 6000~7000 points.

That is to say, after one month of adjustment, there is a high probability that the market will rush all the way to more than 6,000 points.

After the stock market rushed to 4000 points in 07, the bubble has been very serious, corresponding to the position of this wave of bull market at 6000~7000 points, that is, the position where the bubble will burst.

After the 530 of China's stock market, there is a final wave, that is, the exhaustion wave, that is, the last upward momentum of the bull market is consumed, until the stock index rises to the end of the strong crossbow, and finally collapses.

The future crash point of China's stock market, I analyze it is about 7000~9000. Of course, this thing can only be said to be approximate, and there are many variables according to the changes in the situation.

After talking about the market, let's talk about stock picking.

In the next month, the market will enter a stage of shock adjustment, and at this stage, everyone should not always think about how to chase up and how to make money.

Since it is an intermission, it is for everyone to revise and adjust the investment strategy for the second half.

If you don't rest and think well during this time, you will have a high probability of underperforming in the second half that follows.

It's time for you to calm down, take stock of what you've done over the past six months, and then look ahead to your plans for the next six months.

So it's important to know how to choose the doubling stock for the second half of the bull market?

First of all, under any circumstances, do not chase high to buy hot stocks, hot stocks can be bought, but do not chase high buys, let alone buy after the sharp rise and pullback of hot stocks, these two operations are the most important.

If you want to chase hot stocks, you can take advantage of the stock to buy boldly when it rises moderately at 3 or 2 points a day, and you need to pay attention to a skill when buying, and you can buy it anytime the stock price hits the 5-day moving average.

However, once the hot stocks continue to pull out more than 5% or even the rise of the limit, then do not chase, especially when the price limit is pulled out and then fall, let alone at this time to grab the rebound, the probability of being set is extremely high.

In fact, if you want to make money in the stock market, you shouldn't buy hot stocks, everyone is a hot stock, and the price is also a hot price, what money can you make?

Just like China's photovoltaic industry, everyone is rushing to do it, and in the end they all go bankrupt and make a fart of money.

So many people on the Internet asked me, what do you think of the North and South cars? Can you go in again? Another fart, I don't even bother to look at this kind of hot stocks, whoever likes to play and who plays, it has nothing to do with me even if he rises to the sky.

If you want to buy dark horse stocks in a bull market, you must have a strategic vision. The so-called dark horse was inconspicuous before he became a dark horse.

And the biggest potential to become a dark horse is to exceed expectations.

For example, when everyone expects the central bank to cut the RRR, and then the central bank really cuts the RRR, is this still good? Of course not, because this benefit has been overdrawn in advance.

You have to look for the good things that haven't been noticed yet.

For example, if you are currently disclosing a quarterly report, you can analyze in advance which stock will outperform expectations, and then you can make money.

You say you won't? Then you still have a butt ticket, go to Macau, the casino fee is still low.

Well, I know that the Chinese are hypocritical, obviously they are all gambling, the stock market is reasonable gambling, and Macau is unreasonable gambling.

It's useless to reason with gamblers, since you want to gamble, and then you are not good at gambling, then what should you do?

To put it simply, choose some stocks that have risen less in the previous six months or the previous two or three months, preferably small-cap stocks, and ST doesn't matter, as long as you are sure that they will not be delisted. Buy it and hold it, it will go up.

You ask me how do I calculate the price to rise relatively little?

Those who have underperformed the market are considered to have risen less.

Be patient, cover it slowly, and leave it for 3 or 5 months, it will definitely surprise you.

Of course, there may be people whose faces are so black, so choose a few more, distribute the funds equally, remember to distribute them evenly, with the degree of blackness of your face, the 200% of the heavy position is the least increase, so it is better to distribute the funds equally.

You don't need to buy more than 3~5, too little is not good to spread the risk, too much can not be seen.

In particular, once you buy, don't sell it, don't do any operation, whether it's doing t, reducing positions, adding positions, and don't do anything.

These are all the experiences I have summed up in my 16 years of stock trading and 3 big bull markets, and I can say so much, listen to it or not, just don't end up not making money, and crying to ask why.

Before asking why, please re-read this article and see if you did what I said.

Okay, that's all for today, let's breastfeed the baby. Jing Ke assassinated the king of Qin...... o_o

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