The discussion about the company's operation process and customer development came to an end, and Sun Haoyang and others turned the topic to stocks. After all, the foundation of investing in a company is stocks, and if stocks are not operated well, even if they can attract more customers, they will not be able to convert them into profits.

"Just now you said that our main work in the future is to analyze recommended stocks, so how should we analyze stocks? Now that the stock market is at a high level, stocks are not so easy to do. ”

"The stock market in a bull market, the root of the upward momentum, to put it bluntly, is the plate rotation. Each round of market growth is driven by different hot sectors.

If we just want to make money steadily, then we can find a stock that keeps the upward channel intact and has a stable trend to hold it for the medium and long term, but if we want to recommend the stock to new customers, it is not enough to make money, it must also be able to achieve immediate results.

Therefore, in the future, our stock selection strategy can be summed up in eight words, follow the trend, chase the rise and kill the fall. ”

"Chasing the rise and killing the fall? Isn't that very risky? ”

"Of course, there are risks, but in this kind of investment, risks and returns always coexist, and the greater the risk, the higher the return.

In today's bull market, it is not difficult to find a stock that can rise by 10% in a month, but it is difficult to find a stock that can rise by 10% in a week or even two or three days.

But for the model of recommending stocks to our clients to be divided, what we need is not to be stable but to be aggressive. A stock with a 90% probability of a 10% rise in a month is a bad choice, and the increase may not even outperform the market.

If you recommend this kind of stock to a client, how can they be willing to pay you for it?

The best way to convince customers quickly is to find a stock that can be bought today and will be able to rise and fall tomorrow.

From the perspective of probability, the more volatile the stock, the greater the probability of a big rise and fall.

Therefore, we only need to follow some principles when selecting stocks: one is that the turnover rate and amplitude of the stock are very large recently. The second is when the stock has just made a new high or broken through a plateau or strong resistance level. The third is that the trend of this stock has gradually accelerated from the original slow bull trend. The fourth is that there has been a lot of news about this stock recently. The fifth is that the stock has just recently undergone a significant correction.

Any stock that meets these five conditions has a high probability of coming out of the big rise in the short term. Of course, there are many other factors that cause large fluctuations in stocks, and you can find out for yourself. ”

Lu Xiaoqi interrupted Sun Haoyang's speech and asked: "Although the probability of the stocks in these situations you mentioned is very high in the future, the probability of a big fall is also very large, in case the stocks we recommend plummet, won't the customer scold us to death?" ”

Sun Haoyang smiled and shook his head: "Don't you understand?" It's just a game of chance.

In fact, for any stock, the future trend is nothing more than two situations: up and down. From a probability point of view, the probability of both is almost 50%.

Even if you are a senior Wall Street analyst with rich investment experience and technical analysis skills, the success rate of judging the trend of short- and medium-term stocks can increase by about 10% at most.

If it's our own account, even if it's just to increase the success rate of judgment by 1%, it's worth the effort.

But for those new customers that we have developed, the result of the painstaking analysis is only to increase the business volume by 10%, which is too much to do.

So instead of spending effort on finding a stock that has a 60% chance of making a customer 10% in a month, we should find a stock that has a 50% chance of going up 10% in a week.

Anyway, for those newly developed customers, it is meant to be consumed and sacrificed. We had to be prepared to give up half of our customers from the start. ”

Lu Xiaoqi suddenly realized: "Oh, I understand. I've heard similar stories before.

A securities analyst wrote letters to 1,024 clients, half of whom predicted a future rise in the broader market and the other half predicted a future decline.

The next day, the analyst wrote to the 512 clients who judged correctly, still half predicting a rise in the broader market and half predicting a decline in the broader market.

On the third day, the remaining 256 people were concocted in the same way.

After two weeks, one client will magically find out that this analyst's forecast of the broader market is extremely accurate every day for 10 consecutive trading days. ”

"You're right, in fact, the so-called securities investment companies are playing this trick. We first try to reach our customers, and then persuade them to buy the stocks we recommend, and offer to share profits with customers.

In the end, almost half of the customers make money and half lose money. We earn enough points for those lucky profitable customers.

As for the half of the customers who are unlucky and lose money, if they are willing to continue to believe in our fools, then continue to fool, maybe they will come to the right stock in time, if they are not willing to believe us anymore, then just give up, we will not lose anything anyway. ”

"But it's not a long-term solution if we do that." Lao Xu objected: "Now that we are in a bull market, the probability of stocks rising is relatively high, and customers are better at fooling, so you can wait for the market to go bearish, and then it will be very difficult to use this method." At that time, not only will the probability of picking stocks that will rise be low, but it will also be difficult for customers to find them. ”

"So our stock selection is a two-step process, the first step is to make some of our clients quickly profitable through aggressive stock selection and build their trust in us.

When these customers are developed into relatively loyal customers, we use a more prudent method to recommend stocks that rise relatively slowly, but have a higher probability of rising.

I believe that for the customer, we made him profit 10% in the first week, and then we made him profit 10% in the next month, that is, he made more than 20% profit in more than a month, and I believe that most customers can be satisfied with this result. ”

"When you talk about stable and profitable stocks, it's easy to say, but it's not easy to actually operate. If there is really a stable and profitable stock selection method, it is enough for us to make money with the funds on hand, where do we need to develop customers? ”

"You're right, the way of revenue sharing, in the end, is still a game of probability. But in fact, if you think about it from another angle, suppose there is a very risky but very attractive technical trend pattern of stocks, and you dare not take this risk with your own funds, and the role of revenue sharing customers is reflected at this time.

You can let those customers who don't know anything take this risk, and in the end, if you make money, you can get a share, and if you lose money, you just lose a customer, and you don't have to take any risk.

We can understand that the development of revenue sharing customers is actually adding us a free capital leverage that will make sure you don't lose money.

On the other hand, once the market starts to deteriorate, even if the profit sharing model cannot be maintained, you must not forget that we actually have another stable profit model......"

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