Chapter 51: Two Judgments
The main disagreement between Sun Haoyang and Wu Yingying lies in their judgment on the impact of Pujiang Automobile's future performance on the stock price.
During this time, Pujiang Automobile is planning to go public as a whole.
The so-called overall listing refers to when the scale of an enterprise is too large, it will first take out part of its business to be listed, and then wait for the listing to supplement the remaining part of the business in the form of capital increase and share expansion.
Many of China's largest companies cover a wide range of businesses, and not every one of these businesses is profitable.
For example, under the previous state-owned system, large enterprises often had hospitals, schools, canteens and many other supporting facilities, and a large enterprise was sometimes equivalent to a small town.
If the company wants to go public, non-profit businesses such as hospitals and schools will naturally not be counted, and must be spun off from the companies to be listed.
In addition, the listing standards of China's securities market are very strict, not only requiring the company to be listed to be profitable for three consecutive years, but also requiring certain revenue and profit scale.
In this case, many companies themselves may not meet the listing requirements, so in order to be listed, the existing enterprises need to be split and reorganized.
Specifically, it is to keep all the debts and the part of the business with low profits, and separate the part of the business that can make money to form a new company.
On the one hand, it is easier to obtain listing approval from the SFC, and on the other hand, it can also obtain a higher valuation after listing.
After the new company is listed, the assets of the original company will be expanded and added in the form of overall listing, and such a large-scale listed company will be born.
This is exactly the case with Pujiang Automobile.
Pujiang Automobile Group is the second largest automobile production group in China after FAW Group, and there are many businesses covered below. From vehicle assembly to parts production, from small cars to large buses, from the well-known German Volkswagen brand to its own brand, it can be said that it has all kinds of things.
In the 90s, China's economy was just beginning to develop, and high-end manufacturing industries such as the automotive industry were still in the exploration stage. Therefore, at that time, in order to go public, Pujiang Group specially packaged the most profitable small car production business into the market.
Nowadays, with the rapid development of China's economy, the demand for various types of automobiles has increased sharply, and the parts production and large bus production businesses of Pujiang Automobile Group, which were not profitable or even loss-making, have begun to make profits, and Pujiang Automobile Group has begun to seek to go public as a whole.
The overall listing of Pujiang Automobile Group will definitely bring great profit growth to the current Pujiang Automobile stock. For this, Wu Yingying and Sun Haoyang are very sure.
The disagreement between the two is mainly over the judgment of earnings per share.
Wu Yingying believes that after the overall listing of Pujiang Automobile Group, the net profit can be nearly doubled, but at the same time, its total share capital will also be expanded because of the overall listing, and the result is that the existing profits are diluted, and the net profit diluted to each share is likely to be reduced.
And the decrease in net profit per share will of course lead to a decline in the stock price.
Sun Haoyang's thinking is different from Wu Yingying's, he believes that with the listing of Pujiang Automobile Group as a whole, those newly listed businesses will likely become new profit growth points.
Sun's judgment is based on a very simple mathematical assumption. It takes a lot of effort for Pujiang Automobile's existing business profit to change from 1 yuan to 2 yuan, but the profit of those newly incorporated businesses has changed from 1 cent to 1 cent relatively easily.
Nowadays, China's economy is developing rapidly, and the demand for automobiles is growing exponentially. Pujiang Automobile's current businesses have just crossed the break-even point, and with the continuous increase in production and sales, there is great potential for future profit growth.
Therefore, the stock price of Pujiang Automobile will definitely rise sharply in the future.
As a professional manager in the automotive industry, Wu Yingying looks at the present; As a professional securities investor, Sun Haoyang looks at the future.
The difference in vision determines the difference in judgment.
In fact, the judgment of performance is not the fundamental reason for the analysis between Sun Haoyang and Wu Yingying, and the greater difference between the two of them lies in the judgment of the general trend of the stock market.
Wu Yingying has been speculating in stocks for several years in a bear market, so he has no experience and psychological preparation for the sudden arrival of the bull market. Today, he is still accustomed to using the thinking mode of the bear market to analyze and think.
In his opinion, Pujiang Automobile has risen by more than 100% in just over a year, and has completely overdrawn all the upward momentum, and it is time to take profits and clear the position.
In this regard, Sun Haoyang's bull market experience is much richer than that of martial arts heroes.
Sun Haoyang experienced the big bull market in 2000, although at that time he was just learning through simulated stock trading like a family, but after all, he had also seen the crazy trend of many big bull markets.
Therefore, in Sun Haoyang's view, it is completely insufficient for high-quality stocks like Pujiang Automobile to more than double in a wave of bull market.
In Sun Haoyang's estimate, if this bull market continues for another year, then it is possible for Pujiang Automobile's stock price to rise to more than 10 or even more than 20 yuan with the support of good performance growth. Compared with the stock price of only 5 or 6 yuan today, it will definitely rise in the future.
The difference in experience leads to the difference in operation.
In the summer of 2006, with the adjustment of Pujiang Automobile, Wu Yingying technically cleared all the stocks above 5 yuan.
After that, as the share price of Pujiang Automobile fell below 5 yuan, Sun Haoyang began to buy gradually.
In September 2006, China's stock market embarked on its most spectacular rally in history, and the Shanghai Composite Index broke through its previous high of more than 1,700 points and began an uncontrollable frenzy.
At the same time, Pujiang Automobile finally ushered in a new round of rise after two or three months of sideways trading around 5 yuan. In just a few days, the stock price broke through the $6 integer mark and began to attack the previous high of $6.8.
Wu Yingying had been waiting for a pullback in the market after clearing Pujiang Automobile for more than 5 yuan, but after waiting and waiting, the market not only did not fall, but hit a new high.
At the same time, Pujiang Automobile also began a strong rebound.
Originally, Wu Yingying also planned to wait for the stock price of Pujiang Automobile to fall low enough to buy it back, because after listening to Sun Haoyang's analysis, he was still quite optimistic about the future of Pujiang Automobile.
However, as the stock price of Pujiang Automobile rebounded back above 6 yuan all of a sudden, it was completely announced that Wu Yingying had stepped into the air, and he could only watch the stock price of Pujiang Automobile step by step a day, and he could not make up his mind to chase high and buy.
Seeing that the market index is reaching a new high every day, Wu Yingying's heart is dripping blood.
Subconsciously, he was still looking forward to the callback of Pujiang Automobile in his heart, and then the opportunity to buy back Pujiang Automobile again below 6 yuan. But Pujiang Automobile's next unbeatable trend completely shattered his illusions......
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