Chapter 19 Stock Selection

Sun Haoyang has never really speculated in stocks, but he has been playing intermittently for four or five years.

Sun Haoyang began to simulate stock trading in the mid-2000s. At the beginning of the demo operation, due to the big bull market, the assets in the demo account increased by almost 50% in half a year.

But then in 2001, the market began to fluctuate violently, and the individual stock sectors of the market began to diverge.

Then in the second half of 2001, Sun Haoyang predicted that the market was about to go bearish, and the college entrance examination was imminent, and his studies were getting more and more heavy, so he simply stopped.

A year later, Sun Haoyang was successfully admitted to university. Originally, he wanted to start trading stocks immediately, but because he didn't have any spare money on hand, he had no choice but to continue to start simulating stock trading.

However, this time his results were not very good.

After three years of tossing back and forth as the broader market went worse and worse, his stock assets are still struggling on the profit and loss line.

Of course, this is not too bad compared to the retail investors who lost ground in the bear market and the equity funds that fell and liquidated quickly.

After all, China's stock market has a saying that there are seven losses, two draws and one profit. If you can do it without losing money in a bear market, you are at least ahead of 70% of people.

It was in this extremely cruel bear market that he exercised for three years and cultivated Sun Haoyang's extremely cautious stock trading style.

At this time, Sun Haoyang's level of stock speculation was actually not very high, and his understanding of the stock market was still very superficial, but at this time, the general framework of his concept of the entire securities market had been basically built.

Sun Haoyang's first principle of stock speculation is: you can not make money, but you must not lose money! Put risk first before making any choices.

This conservative style was mainly influenced by his own father. After all, his father's experience of two consecutive failures in the stock market impressed Sun Haoyang too deeply.

He definitely didn't want to work hard for a long time, only to find out that he was going down the same path as his father back then.

Among the large number of stock books Sun Haoyang has read, he likes the two iron rules of investment by Warren Buffett: first, never lose money; Second, never forget the first.

In the eyes of many people, these two sentences are simply equivalent to nonsense.

But Sun Haoyang saw the deep meaning from these two sentences, that is, to avoid risks as much as possible before investing and improve the probability of winning.

Under this investment style and market environment, Sun Haoyang has figured out a set of stock selection and operation methods.

First of all, never speculate on stocks against the trend, and resolutely do not buy stocks in a downward trend. When picking stocks, only choose stocks with a long alignment of moving averages.

This is called going with the flow and not working against the market.

Second, don't chase theme stocks, don't chase those weird stocks. Theme stocks and Zhuang stocks are the main battlefields of institutional battles. To make money from these stocks is tantamount to pulling teeth out of the mouth. Sun Haoyang thinks that only people with bad brains will go to the dealer alone with their strength.

There is a very simple logic in Sun Haoyang's stock trading philosophy: if the stock market is a zero-sum game, would you rather play this game with a group of genius elites or with a group of comics?

The answer is obviously that the weaker your opponent, the higher your probability of winning.

Sun Haoyang felt that those retail investors who were thinking about finding bankers all day long and thinking about how to defeat the bankers were really stupid. It's like an old birthday boy eating arsenic - I'm tired of living.

This approach is equivalent to saying to basketball superstar Yao Ming: "Hey, buddy, let's play basketball, 10,000 yuan per ball." ”

It's a very simple and easy-to-understand truth, but it's a pity that many retail investors can't understand it in their lifetime.

Third, the selected stocks have good performance, preferably able to grow steadily.

Sun Haoyang will never touch the loss-making stock. It's not that loss-making stocks are garbage and not worth investing in, but Sun Haoyang thinks that his ability is not enough. It is too difficult and too risky to pick gold out of the trap-ridden loss-making stocks.

According to the above three principles, Sun Haoyang spent a whole night looking at hundreds of stocks, and finally picked out a favorite stock: Zhonghai Pharmaceutical.

Zhonghai Pharmaceutical, just listen to the name and know that it is a pharmaceutical company.

With the continuous development of China's economy, the quality of life of the people continues to improve, and the demand for medical services is also increasing.

Sun Haoyang went to the hospital to see a doctor, which is really a sea of people. If you go a little late, the registration queue can be longer than the queue for buying train tickets for the Spring Festival.

Therefore, pharmaceutical stocks with stable growth and stable trend have become Sun Haoyang's first choice.

The next work is to select a stock with higher cost performance and better technical form from a dry pharmaceutical stock. And after choosing, Sun Haoyang finally chose this Zhonghai Pharmaceutical.

The stock has been growing steadily over the past few years, but the share price has been underperforming due to the decline in the broader market.

Today, Zhonghai Pharmaceutical's share price hovers around 10 yuan, while its latest quarterly net profit per share is as high as 1.03 yuan, which is less than 10 times the price-earnings ratio.

Recently, as the broader market began to rebound after falling below 1,000 points, the share price of Zhonghai Pharmaceutical also began to bottom out and rebound, slowly climbing. The current stock price has climbed above the 60-day moving average, and the 5-day moving average has also formed a golden cross pattern relative to the 20-day moving average.

On the other hand, with the slow rise of Zhonghai Pharmaceutical's stock price, its trading volume has also shown a trend of rapid expansion.

Sun Haoyang has seen a similar pattern from other stocks before, which is likely to be a sign of stock price recovery.

This pattern indicates that a group of new funds are beginning to take an interest in the stock and start to open positions, while the retail investors who were previously hedged are fleeing at the bottom. In this way, if the stock is to rise in the future, the pressure on the way up will be much reduced.

On the other hand, if the market is not good in the future, because new funds are concentrated in this position to buy, they will not easily cut the meat, which also ensures that the room for the stock price to fall will be extremely limited.

These inferences are based on the perspective of technical analysis. For Sun Haoyang, his judgment is simpler: after staring at the K-line chart for 5 minutes, he intuitively feels that the stock will rise!

If you want to say how this intuition is cultivated, it is actually very simple, as long as you look at the K-line patterns of thousands of stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets every one or two months, after a long time, you will naturally have this intuition.

After looking at a lot of stock patterns, every time you look at a stock, you will feel that the trend of these stocks in front of you is familiar, as if you have seen it on some stocks before. And the accuracy of this intuition is not low.

In this way, early the next morning, Sun Haoyang bought 1,900 shares of Zhonghai Pharmaceutical at a very auspicious price of 10.08 yuan.

However, can this purchase really be so smooth sailing?

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