The stock market plunge caused by the 530 stamp duty hike lasted for a week before it calmed down.

In the course of the week, the Shanghai Composite Index plummeted from more than 4,300 points to more than 3,500 points, a decline of 20%, which is also the result of the relatively resistant decline of those heavyweights in the market.

Small-cap stocks, which rose wildly in the previous bull market, were the hardest hit by this bear market, generally falling by more than 30%.

2007 was the busiest year for the stock market, with the stock market more than doubling. But in the process of this wave of rise, in fact, most shareholders do not make much money.

Although the Shanghai Composite Index has risen more than four times from 998 points in 2005, the vast majority of investors are an afterthought. In 2005, the stock market was crowded, and there were not many people speculating in stocks.

When everyone realized that the bull market was coming, the market had risen to 2, 3,000 points, and then the new investors who were attracted by the wealth effect rushed into battle, and the profits naturally did not go anywhere.

The performance of new investors is not good, and the performance of old investors is not much better. Most of the old investors in China's stock market today entered the 2000 bull market, and years of bear market experience have made them timid as rats – and they can't be blamed for it, as the bold retail investors were wiped out in the previous bear market.

When the bull market started, the most daring old investors at that time only predicted 3,000 points, and their positions were always dissatisfied, and the result was that after all kinds of shorts, they watched the stock market skyrocket.

In the turbulent bull market, the shareholders made average gains, but in the ensuing plunge, they were the ones who suffered the most losses.

In the week after the 530 incident, the daily trading volume of more than 200 billion represents that trillions of funds have lost a lot in this wave of slump.

After the 530 incident subsided, the stock market entered the late stage of the bull market, and a new journey will begin......

In the previous wave of bull market, martial heroes belonged to a relatively lucky group of people.

After experiencing the mad bull at the beginning of 07, it suffered a shock of 530. Martial Hero's account assets fluctuated. But after all, he is an old Jianghu, and he was lucky to meet Sun Haoyang.

After the 530 incident, Wu Yingying, at the suggestion of Sun Haoyang, made a lot of money through put warrants, and his total assets relied on this successful operation to finally break through the 3 million mark. His account equity has tripled in just over a year.

Although in the bull market, there are people who make more land than him, but he is already very satisfied. Because he has a relatively large amount of money.

The profit of 2 million is also in the forefront among all shareholders, but of course, it is still a little worse than Sun Haoyang, who is perverted and lucky.

Wu Yingying was not carried away by the victories and joy he had achieved, as an old shareholder, he was still very clear about the laws of the market. In addition, he often communicated with Sun Haoyang, so he began to prepare for retreat after the 530 incident.

During the lunch break, Sun Haoyang hid in the big room where the martial hero was. I've been too busy with work lately, and only by hiding here can he steal some leisure.

"Where do you think the market will fall in the future?" For the future trend of the market, Wu Yingying has long reached a consensus with Sun Haoyang.

"It's still uncertain, the 530 incident may not be a turning point in the stock market, you see that there are still so many people in the securities company who are opening accounts, they are not frightened by the previous crash, on the contrary, they think they have picked up a bargain. With so many new funds that are not afraid of death, I think the market is likely to rise again in the future. ”

"Hmph, this group of rookies who don't know the height of the sky, they still think that the stock market is a place full of gold, but they don't know that they have stepped on half a foot in the trap, and these people will become leeks to be slaughtered sooner or later."

Sun Haoyang sighed and said: "The stock market is not like this, without these ignorant leeks, we can't make money." Since they want to make money, of course they need to pay some tuition. If you don't teach them some lessons, they won't grow. Although this kind of tuition may be a bit bloody, it is not known how many people will survive to the next bull market in the end. ”

"It seems that you are very pessimistic about the future of China's stock market. Where do you think the market will return after this bull market is over? ”

"According to my analysis, the probability of returning below 3,000 points is very high, even ...... It is possible to fall below 2000 points. ”

"2000 points?!" Although there are psychological preparations for the decline of the market, the statement of 2000 points still scares Wu Yingying. "The market is now close to 4,000 points, and according to you, it should continue to rise in the future. What basis do you say that the market will fall to 2,000 points? ”

Sun Haoyang skillfully clicked on the index K-line chart on the computer, adjusted it into a monthly K-line, and then pointed to the screen and said: "In 1994, the market fell from more than 700 points to more than 300 points, a drop of 60%; In 2002, the market fell from more than 2,200 points to 1,000 points, also down 60%. ”

"So you think the market will still fall by 60% this time?"

"According to the laws of history, the probability is very high."

"Now that the market is already rebounding, if the market ends up at more than 5,000 points in the future, then according to your algorithm, it is really 2,000 points."

After pondering for a moment, Martial Hero continued to ask, "Then how long do you think it will fall?" ”

"If I'm not wrong about what I expected, it will fall sharply for 1 year and fall for 4 or 5 years."

"So long?" If it is already unacceptable that the market will fall to 2000, then Sun Haoyang's prediction that the market will bear for 5 or 6 years is even more sensational.

"There have only been three real bull markets in the history of China's stock market, in 1993, 2000 and now in 2007. Don't you think the interval between these three bull markets is very regular? ”

"It's all 7 years apart?"

"That's right. Especially now that China's stock market has risen from 998 points all the way to more than 4,000 points, an increase of more than four times. Once the market is over, I am afraid that there will be no 5 or 6 years of recuperation, and it will not be able to slow down at all. ”

"Then according to you, the next bull market will wait until ......"

"Around 2014. 2013 as early as 2015 as late. ”

"5 or 6 years of bear market ......" Wu Yingying frowned, as if thinking about a big problem. After a long time, he said as if he had made up his mind: "You predict that the market will be bearish for 5 or 6 years after the end of this bull market, so if it is really as expected, what do you plan to do in the future?" ”

Martial Hero's words were like a thunderbolt on a sunny day, and Sun Haoyang was stunned.

Sun Haoyang used to put all his thoughts on analyzing the stock market, and he didn't think too much about work development. But after Wu Yingying's heart, Sun Haoyang suddenly realized that if it is really as he predicted, the market will bear for 5 or 6 years, then working in a securities company is undoubtedly a very bad choice.

Sun Haoyang is very clear about how bad the situation of securities companies in the bear market is, although the securities companies are so popular that they are about to break the threshold, but Sun Haoyang has not forgotten the scene in 2005.

Securities companies are completely dependent on the sky for food. In a bull market, relying on generous bonuses can indeed make most people jealous, but once it is a bear market, the meager basic salary can also make people desperate.

"yes, what should I do if the stock market turns bearish?" For the first time, Sun Haoyang was confused about his future......

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