This week's market has had ups and downs, but after all, it still broke through the 5,000-point integer mark in the shock and hit a new high.

This week's market trend showed a very panicked appearance, and the market immediately fell by more than 100 points.

For this kind of diving in the middle and late stages of the bull market, one is the profit-taking that has made a profit in the early stage, and the other is the implication of institutional position change.

After the market reached 5,000 points, except for a few weighted sectors such as banks, it can be said that all stocks in the stock market have become bubbles significantly.

Not to mention the P/E ratio has exploded on the Shenchuang Board and sub-new stocks, even ordinary stocks, the P/E ratio has reached an average of 4 or 50 times.

Today's Chinese stock market is the same as the real estate market in the past, everyone actually knows very well that the price is already high, but they can't help but want to get the last piece of the pie.

So how to operate in the second half of the bull market after 5,000 points, the next will be very difficult.

In the second half of the bull market in 2007, the main force of the rise was resource stocks, and the so-called coal flying color dance was used to describe that time.

However, it is really hard to say whether resource stocks will rise in the second half of this bull market, because this time and that time.

In 2007, it was the peak of the global economy, and the Chinese manufacturing machine, as the representative of the global economy, was at full power.

Factories need raw materials to produce, and those European and American countries that control the raw materials and the final consumer market certainly can't let China make too much money.

As a result, the prices of major resources such as iron ore, crude oil, and non-ferrous metals have skyrocketed.

At that time, I was still working in a securities company, and I heard a colleague chatting that a customer of a futures company bought copper futures with 50,000 yuan, and kept making additional investments.

As a result, in this round of resource surge in 07, tens of millions of yuan were earned.

This rich-rich-rich story is just a microcosm of that period, and you can imagine how hot resource stocks would have been at that time.

Of course, in the last 08 years of the financial crisis, copper futures continued to fall to the limit, as a result, the customer who earned from tens of thousands of yuan to tens of millions of dollars finally liquidated, due to the futures price limit, he wanted to sell at that time can not sell, and finally when the fall limit is opened, there is little left in his account.

Therefore, many new investors nowadays, if they make a lot of money from the stock market in a daze, then they are likely to lose back in the end.

When the stock market ebb and flow, if you don't want to swim naked, it's a good time to make up for it and figure out how you made your money.

Back to the topic, in 07, because of the global economic development, the demand for resources increased sharply, and as a result, the prices of various resources rose sharply, resulting in a sharp rise in resource stocks in the second half of the bull market.

So as I said in my previous stock review, you have to look for stocks that have growth expectations in a bull market, and then hold them all the time.

On the other hand, although the stock market has come again after 8 years, it is almost the same as in 07.

But in fact, the basis of the two bull markets is already different.

The bull market in 07 was caused by excessive economic prosperity, and this round of bull market is caused by the economy being too depressed and the state over-issuing currency in order to stimulate the economy.

So although the two bull markets are similar in form, they are opposite in nature.

In 07 years, the most bullish is the resource tycoon, I still remember that at that time, China's iron and steel enterprises led by Baosteel imported iron ore from Australia, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton two iron ore giants hanging, price increase and price increase, you love to buy or not.

What now? China's demand for iron ore has decreased significantly, and the iron ore of the two extensions has been piled up in warehouses and rusted.

Similarly, at that time, the price of crude oil peaked at $147 per copper, and now it is less than $70. This does not take into account the inflation caused by the over-issuance of money by the US QE in the past eight years.

In this case, it may be difficult to think of coal flying in the second half of this bull market.

So having said all that, what stocks will rise in the second half of this bull market? To be honest, I don't know.

If I knew, I would have bought it myself.

However, there are some points to follow, the first is the strongest, and the second is to look for future performance growth expectations.

The so-called strong Hengqiang refers to what stocks rose in the first half of the bull market, and eighty percent of these stocks rose in the second half, while the stocks that did not rise much in the first half are estimated to have risen little in the second half.

So a lot of retail investors bought a lot of low-capitalization stocks like banks in this round of turmoil, and I'm sorry to tell you that the probability of such stocks outperforming the market in the second half of the bull market is very low.

The next step is the expectation of performance growth, because the second half of the bull market will not last long, usually up to 3 or 5 months.

So this growth expectation must be clear, right in the eye, and the uncertainty and long-term performance growth can be ruled out.

For example, the stock market is good, so the performance of the brokerage company has increased significantly, and the price of a commodity has risen sharply, resulting in the profit growth of the listed company that produces the product. This kind of is clear, short-term profit rise.

For example, a company signed a large order, or expanded its production capacity, but this kind of good, when the product is produced and turned into profits, it is estimated that it will be half a year and a year later, and the bull market will be over at that time, so this kind of stock will not have a very good performance.

The main bull market in 2007 lasted only two and a half months in the second half, and the overall market rose by almost 50%.

Then the main rising wave of this year's bull market is expected to rise to about 6500~7000 points in the second half. In terms of time, it is about the end of July or August.

Of course, this is assuming that this round of bull market imitates the result of the previous round of bull market, and it may not really go this way in the end, so you can only make a reference.

But in general, there is no big problem with continuing to hold stocks now, but if you increase your position and leverage, I don't recommend it anyway, listen to it or not.

At present, almost everyone in the market expects the market to rise to 8000 points. So there is a question, really wait for the market to reach 8000 points, what fool will buy stocks?

Do you really think that the IQ of Chinese investors is negative, and the money is blown by the wind?

No one buys 8,000 points, so who do you sell the stock to?

Therefore, in the end, the market will definitely collapse if it does not reach 8,000 points, and even 6 or 7,000 points will have a big crash like 530.

I guess this time will be during the summer vacation this year. And this decline is estimated to be in the 4 digits.

If everything goes as I expected in this article, then this is the end of the bull market's upswing.

And after that, it will be the turn of the banking sector to play the leading role.

When the bull market is over, the main upward wave of banks will just begin, and its gains are expected to reach or even exceed 50%.

Finally, of course, it was Jing Ke who assassinated the King of Qin...... Seeing the poor dagger, everything ends up back to the original point.

Of course, all of these speculations are based on ideals, but history never repeats itself, so in the end, even one thing that goes wrong is likely to cost us an investment.

Just like Jing Ke, King Qin's throat was only 0.1 centimeters away from his dagger, but unfortunately this 0.1 centimeter eventually turned into a chasm, which could not be crossed even if he paid for his life.

Therefore, our prediction of the broader market cannot be based on speculation alone, but also has some insurance measures.

For example, the moving average trading method mentioned in my previous novel, as well as the prediction of some macroeconomic data.

Needless to say, the moving average trading method is very simple, and the difficult thing is to strictly implement it. When the market is about to peak at the end of the bull market, and you are reluctant to take the last bite of soup, and you are afraid that you will be stuck at the top, the easiest way is to give up part of your profits and use the moving average trading method to invest in the trend.

Once the trend of the market or individual stocks changes, the position will be cleared as soon as possible.

This method may make you a lot less money, but at the end of the bull market, it will allow you to retain the fruits of your previous victories to the maximum.

As for macroeconomic data, this must be grasped by old investors with some economic skills.

For example, there are two data that I pay more attention to, one is housing prices, and the other is the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR).

The essence of this bull market is to stimulate the economy, and because of the previous decline in housing prices, the money put into the market by the central bank has flowed to the stock market.

And in the future, once house prices rush back to the upward channel, this will definitely not be a good thing for the stock market.

In addition, the central bank's monetary injection is directly reflected in the market interest rate, and the interbank market is the most sensitive to the market interest rate.

In China's bull market, interbank interest rates are usually kept at around 1%, so you can invest boldly at this time.

And once the interbank rate starts to rebound from 1%, you need to pay attention, when the rate rebounds above 1.3%, you need to start paying attention, when the rate breaks through 1.5%, you need to pay close attention, when the rate exceeds 2%, that almost tells you that the bull market is over.

Okay, that's all for today, Jing Ke assassinated King Qin......

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