Today, on the occasion of the 8th anniversary of the 2007 May Massacre, I would like to present to you once again this week's weekly stock review.

This past week can be described as a thrilling one.

Soaring, plummeting, and plummeting again in one day. The total market capitalization of China's stock market creates a small country's full-year GDP almost in a matter of days, and then evaporates again in a single day.

This is not enjoyable, and in the end, within one day, many stocks have come to a roller coaster market from the limit to the limit and then from the limit to the limit.

Investors have gone crazy this week. First there are people who are crazy, such as recently...... In fact, it can't be regarded as recent, a batch of new stocks listed before, after more than ten or twenty one-word boards, the stock price has soared to dozens or hundreds of yuan.

Shareholders who are lucky enough to win the new stock have earned tens of thousands of yuan out of thin air -- even in Shanghai, where the per capita income of Chinese is the highest, this is equivalent to the annual income of an ordinary person for two or three years!

It's not crazy anymore, it's just crazy.

On May 28, the stock market suddenly plummeted without warning, and more than 500 stocks fell to the limit. This time, the shareholders went crazy again, they were scared crazy.

Many people's stocks are still up and down in the morning, and in the afternoon, they go from up to down in half an hour or even a few minutes. Direct economic losses can be as high as 20%.

If someone happens to be playing with leveraged products such as stock index futures, margin trading, or graded funds, it is even more thrilling.

Friday's trend was even more exciting, first opening 5 minutes, the market rebounded 100 points, then fell more than 200 points in less than half an hour, and then pulled up in a sharp shock.

To be honest, investors with low psychological tolerance really can't play the Chinese stock market, which is the rhythm of being scared out of heart disease.

I'm afraid that Hollywood's most powerful thriller director can't make such a thrilling plot.

After the hustle and bustle, it is natural to make a qualitative assessment of the market, what is happening to the stock market now? How will the market go in the future? This is probably the question that all investors will always want to ask.

Many retail investors, including many famous analysts, say that the current stock market is a repeat of 530 in 07.

The same market suddenly crashed and plummeted, and the same crash was followed by a huge shock.

There are even rumors spread by good people that May 30, 2007 is April 11 of the lunar calendar, and May 28, the day of the stock market crash this time, is also April 11 of the lunar calendar, so the Chinese stock market was originally playing yin.

Let's not investigate that May 30, 2007 is actually the April 14th of the lunar calendar, but in terms of today's stock market atmosphere, where is the relationship between the stock market trend in the past week and the May Day tragedy of that year?

The shareholders who say that 528 is imitating 530 are either rookies or brain-dead, or fanning the flames who deliberately spread rumors.

Indeed, judging from the daily K-line trend on Thursday and Friday, the pattern of the market is very similar to the 530 of the year, which is the trend of the first day of plunge and then the second single needle bottoming out.

But what about other than that? There is no other resemblance between the two.

Saying that the current 528 is a copy of 530 back then is like holding Yao Ming and Brother Chun's headshots, and then saying: These two people look too similar, they must be long-lost brothers and sisters.

Of course, Yao Ming and Brother Chun are not brother and sister, and no one in their right mind will judge like this, because everyone knows that there is a huge height difference between the two people.

But if a person who doesn't know Yao Ming and Brother Chun just looks at the stickers, it's really hard to judge.

This is also the case with current stockholders, and the reason why some people come to the conclusion that 528=530 is precisely because stockholders are suffering from myopia.

You only have to look a little further and you will see a huge "height difference" between 528 and 530.

First of all, in 2007, the market atmosphere and national attitude at 530 were diametrically opposed to now.

During that time, the China Securities Regulatory Commission almost every day reminded the risk and issued 12 gold medals to the Chinese stock market, and the 530 incident was only the first part of this series of events.

On the other hand, looking at the current stock market, even if the market has risen so wildly, especially the GEM and sub-new stocks, it has been crazy to the point of madness.

However, the management still turned a blind eye to this phenomenon, and at most said weakly, the stock market is risky, and everyone should be careful -- maybe someone will come out the next day to refute this rumor.

I was lucky enough to hit a Jiangsu Cable before, and then I was stunned to see a stock with an issue price of more than 5 yuan rising to more than 20 yuan in a row, and it rose more than ten times to more than 60 yuan.

At the same time as this stock, all the stocks with an issue price of more than 10 yuan have risen to one or two hundred yuan without exception, and it seems that this upward momentum has not ended.

You must know that in those days, it was not easy for a stock to rise to 100 yuan, but now, 100 yuan stocks are like cabbage on the assembly line, being manufactured in batches.

In the face of this pole! Pole!! Pole!!! Abnormal irrational behavior, but the management didn't even fart. Doesn't that say a lot about the attitude of the management?

2007 was the most prosperous year for China's economy, but it was also a turning point in the global financial situation.

In this year, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States broke out, the century-old Lehman Brothers collapsed, and a global financial crisis that has not yet ended began to ferment.

Against that backdrop, the management must control the risks in China's economy and prevent a bubble caused by an overheated economy.

Therefore, the decision of the precautionary management to make a desperate decision to suppress China's stock market in the economic environment of 2007 is obviously very correct.

Times have passed, and the financial environment in the world and even in China today is very different from 2007.

Today's economic situation in China can be said to be the worst since the 90s after the reform and opening up.

If the real economy is not good, the country needs to be driven by the virtual economy, which used to rely on real estate, but now it relies on the stock market.

The state needs to release a huge amount of money in the financial market to revitalize the economy, and by the way, make a big deal to reduce the bad debt rate.

This week, the central bank just released a work report, saying that it will adopt an active fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy.

I didn't learn Chinese well, so I really couldn't understand what the word "steady" meant. All I know is that the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR), which represents the easing of funds in the financial markets, has fallen to 1%.

This low interest rate is something I have only seen in history when central banks were printing money frantically in 2007 and the $4 trillion economic stimulus in 2009.

Such a large financial stimulus is still called "steady", and it is estimated that only hyperinflation like Zimbabwe can be regarded as loose.

The central bank is desperately printing money for one purpose, and that is to stimulate the flagging Chinese economy.

It's easy to print money, and in the past, you had to start a money printing machine, but now trillions of dollars of money are quickly flowing to the market as long as they are operated on a computer.

But it's not easy to get so much money to flow to the real economy correctly.

So with so much money thrown in at once, there needs to be a reservoir, and that is the Chinese stock market.

In the future, if the management wants to suppress the stock market, it will be very simple, and there will be no restrictions at all, as long as the central bank tightens the money bag, as it did in June 2013 when there was a shortage of money.

One day in the future, the interbank lending rate will soar, and the market will plummet by 1,000 points in a month, which is effortless.

Of course, the management will definitely not do that now, because they still need to rely on the rise in the stock market to stimulate the economy.

In addition, there is also the purpose of attracting foreign capital through the stock market to achieve the internationalization of the renminbi.

Friends who care about the foreign exchange market will know that since the beginning of this year, the US dollar has appreciated sharply, and the US dollar index has risen from 80 points a year ago to nearly 100 points.

As soon as the dollar appreciates, the world's financial assets will flow back to the United States, which is a big killer weapon for the United States to control the global economy.

Other countries are already in a downturn, and you are still taking salaries, for fear that the other party will not die fast enough.

Then, once those countries with a sluggish economy can't resist the temptation and introduce economic stimulus policies, the dollar will immediately depreciate and return to the country, creating a bubble for the country, and then shearing the sheep again.

This topic is relatively large, so I won't expand on it today.

Everyone just needs to know that once the dollar returns, it will definitely be China that is unlucky.

If the US dollars that came in at 1 to 8 in China made a lot of money in Chinese real estate, and then went out at a price of 1 to 6, if this really happened, it would be equivalent to China working for the United States for nothing for the past 10 years.

Therefore, the renminbi must not depreciate against the US dollar, and not only that, but it is also necessary to give the capital a reason to continue to stay in China.

This reason is naturally the crazy growth of the stock market. Rely on the high yield of the stock market to retain foreign capital.

Recently, the United States has just announced an interest rate hike, and the dollar has begun to rebound and rise, and if the Chinese stock market starts to fall at this time, there is no such way to die.

The rise of the stock market, in addition to being able to retain the fleeing capital, can also stimulate the economy by the way, and can also collect more stamp duty -- the daily trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 2 trillion yuan, and according to the calculation of the stamp duty rate of 1/1,000, the stamp duty is 2 billion a day, and 500 billion a year.

The cost of a state-of-the-art nuclear-powered aircraft carrier in the United States is only 100 billion yuan when converted into RMB, and China's selfless shareholders contribute five to the country a year.

Therefore, it is not difficult to judge the future decisions of Chinese management. The first step is to issue a large amount of over-issued currency, so that the currency can flow into the stock market, so as to revitalize the economy while retaining hot money and enhance the international status of the renminbi.

Then, after earning enough wealth through the stock market, the real estate market is revitalized, and the investors and investors who have made money in the stock market are guided to start buying houses again. This is the second step.

These two steps will take about two or three years to complete, and in the process, China will actively upgrade its industry while pushing the renminbi to the market while waiting for the global economic recovery. Finally, the goal of recovering the real economy will be realized.

It is not yet known whether these last two steps will be implemented, but the first step is already underway.

Therefore, the stock market must not fall now, not to mention that the new stock rises to 100 yuan, even if it rises to 1000 yuan, the management can only not see it.

I have written so much, and based on the above analysis, it is actually just to illustrate one thing, the plunge of 528 is not the market of 530 in 07, but the market of 227 in 07.

In fact, those who have read my article before must know that in the middle of 2006, the market began the main rising wave after the end of the 1700-point shock, and the main rising wave lasted until the end of 530 in 07.

But in the past year, there has been an adjustment, that is, at the beginning of 07.

At that time, the market stagflated below 3,000 points, began to fluctuate, and then finally broke through the 3,000-point integer mark on February 16, 07.

After that, just when everyone thought that the market would return to the upward channel, the situation suddenly changed, and on February 27, the market plummeted by 8.84% without warning!

It's all very similar to what 528 is doing now.

This round of bull market, after a two-month wash in early 2015, rose all the way to 4,500 points, and then the market began the first adjustment of the main rising wave. Subsequently, the market rose again some time ago and hit a new high from this bull market, followed by a long black candlestick.

In 07, 227 fell sharply, with a maximum drop of 8.9% in two days, and this time 528 fell sharply, and the maximum decline in two days was also 8.9%.

You ask me how the market will go in the future? Which sectors of the broader market will rise in the future?

I've got the cheats open for you now, you just need to study the trend of the market after 227 in 07, analyze the changes in the hot sectors before and after 227, and if you don't know what to do next, don't speculate in stocks.

After talking about the market trend, let's talk about positions.

After reading my analysis, many investors feel that the market will have to rise in the future, so they feel that they should increase their positions and increase leverage.

Again, I warn everyone, don't do that!

History repeats itself, but it definitely doesn't simply repeat itself. This is especially true for stock market investing.

Whenever everyone thinks that they have discovered the correct pattern of the stock market, they will soon be hit by the cruel reality.

Therefore, even if everyone is full of confidence in the market outlook, it is still necessary to take it easy, as the so-called money in the stock market is inexhaustible.

On the other hand, for many investors who had few positions before, and now plan to increase their positions and just plan to enter the market, I advise everyone not to come in.

The stock market is a zero-sum game, and someone who makes money will definitely pay for it. The stock market is not a company, it does not have the ability to create wealth, and it can only achieve a redistribution of wealth.

For example, I have made tens of millions in the stock market since I entered the market at 2000 points, so who will pay for the tens of millions in the end? It will definitely not be the old investors who entered the market at 2000 points, so there will only be 4000 points left to enter and increase the new funds.

It can be said that every time you increase your position now, you are paying for me and carrying a sedan chair for me.

Many new entrants have one of the biggest illusions that they have the ability to escape the top at the end of a bull market.

Countless histories tell me that this is simply not possible.

Experienced old investors who entered the market at 2,000 points may still be able to escape the top, because for people in our situation, it makes little difference whether the market will rise to 6,000 points or 8,000 points in the future.

I have now made tens of millions of dollars in the stock market, and if the market continues to rise in the future, it will be just the icing on the cake, for me, this round of bull market to make 15 million or 20 million, in fact, there is not much difference.

Therefore, when we, the old shareholders, feel that we have almost made money, we will calmly withdraw.

But this is not the case for new investors, who have just come in at 4 or 5,000 points now, may have just tasted a little sweetness from the stock market in the future, and let them exit at the time of the highest interest? No way! That's human nature.

For new investors who enter the market now, the only fate that awaits you in the future is to be trapped at the top of the stock market in blind impulse.

In the end, you will either not be able to hold on and leave the market, or you will speculate on stocks and become shareholders, hold on for 5 years and 8 years, and wait for the new leeks of the next bull market to save you.

After the position is finished, let's finally talk about the operation.

On the night of the May 28 crash, I gave the last buy signal of this bull market to the old stockholders in the group.

Judging by the laws of history, the market may still trade sideways at its current position in the next week, and then it will be gone forever.

So this is the last time I say buy, and after today, until the end of this bull market, I will no longer have the word "buy" in my stock trading dictionary.

The rest, only sell.

So in the future, the stock market can no longer buy stocks, what can we do?

In the future, I will spend half a year to a year teaching you how to make low-risk and risk-free investments at the end of a bull market and a long bear market through stock reviews and novels.

So today is the first lesson - financing arbitrage.

As we all know, the yield of new shares is extremely high now.

Taking Jiangsu Cable as an example, the winning rate is 1.24%, and the stock price has risen more than 10 times, so its yield is 1.24%*10=12.4%.

Note that this is only the yield of a single IPO subscription. If this yield is calculated according to the issuance of new shares twice a month, its annualized rate of return is as high as 12.4**24=297.6%.

The annualized return of 300% is more than any investment method available today, including the stock market.

You must know that most of the investors do not actually earn 300% now, not to mention that the stock market is still risky, and there is no risk at all in the new market.

Of course, the yield of Jiangsu Cable is ridiculously high, and the yield of new stocks in the stock market will definitely not be so high in the future.

If we calculate the winning rate of 3/1000, a 200% increase, and subscribe for new shares twice a month, the annualized rate of return of new shares is 0.003*200%*24=14.4%.

In fact, the yield of new stocks in the stock market is of course much higher than this figure, which is still for large funds, if it is a small fund, you can deliberately choose new stocks with a relatively higher yield.

One of the simplest principles is that the lower the issue price, the larger the number of shares issued, and the higher the expected rate of return for the new shares.

Therefore, as long as it is operated properly, it is expected to earn 30% a year without risk through the means of new stocks.

So the question is, now that the stock market is so hot, everyone has invested their money in the stock market, where is the spare money to use to make new ones?

The answer is financing.

Let's say you have $1,000,000 worth of stocks on hand (not ready to sell them in the short term, and these stocks are all financing targets) and you have a margin account, congratulations, you're blessed!

The method is to transfer 600,000 of the 1 million shares to the margin account, and then sell the 400,000 worth of shares in the ordinary account, and at the same time use the margin account to buy back the stocks.

The specific amount is subject to the actual financing ratio, and there is some room for appropriate retention, as long as it is guaranteed that the position will not be forced to close due to the stock price plummeting.

In this way, the actual number of shares you hold does not change at all, but you have an extra 400,000 cash out of thin air. At the same time, you have enough IPO shares in your stock account.

Next, you can take the 400,000 to happily play new. If you win the lottery, remember to vote for me as a VIP~

That's all for today, and after talking about so much, the dry goods are almost exhausted. So, Jing Ke assassinated the king of Qin......

This book was first published from 17k, the first time to see the genuine content!

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