After Sun Haoyang sold all the shares of Pujiang Automobile, his total assets became 1 million, and in just a few months, his wealth increased by 1.5 times.

Sun Haoyang is naturally very satisfied with this achievement, but some people want to cry sadly, including Wu Yingying and Wang Yue.

Needless to say, Wu Yingying has been in the automobile industry for half his life, and was finally washed out by Pujiang Automobile before the start of the big bull market, and in the end he could only watch the stock price ride into the dust.

The red-eyed martial arts hero saw the market reach a new high every day, and his mentality was inevitably a little unbalanced, and as a result, the performance of several stocks bought after that was average, although he did not lose money in the environment of the big bull market, but the profit was far from underperforming the market.

Another unlucky guy is Wang Yue.

As a complete newcomer in the securities market, he was still very self-aware at the beginning, and he tended to follow Sun Haoyang's steps.

But after all, Wang Yue is also a high-achieving student from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, and his learning ability is very strong, and his original major is finance, which can be regarded as a bypass for stocks.

Wang Yue learned very quickly, and in less than a month, he had thoroughly understood the relevant knowledge of the basics of stocks.

The basic principles and rules of stocks are actually very simple, and there are not many complicated things, which is why it can attract so many investors.

But this thing is definitely easy to learn and hard to master. It's easy to get started, but if you want to master the essence, you have to spend ten years of hard work, and you still have to have talent and understanding.

Like Sun Haoyang's father, who went astray when he first learned to speculate in stocks, I am afraid that there will be no good results for him if he is given another 20 years.

However, for this truth, Wang Yue, who has just come into contact with the stock market, obviously cannot understand it. A shareholder cannot grow up without experiencing some bloody lessons.

After clearing all the Jiangzhou machinery, Wang Yue also had more than 100,000 yuan in his stock account. Then he listened to Sun Haoyang's suggestion and bought Pujiang Automobile at a price of about five yuan.

At first, Wang Yue felt that stock trading was quite fresh, but soon felt that it was too boring.

Because Sun Haoyang asked him to buy Pujiang Automobile, there was only one operation suggestion - to cover it.

Because of the full position, Wang Yue can't buy other stocks. How boring it is for you to have a new retail investor staring at a stock's tick chart all day long, either buying or selling.

As the stock price of Pujiang Automobile began to rise, soon Wang Yue could not sit still.

He kept asking Sun Haoyang, when will this Pujiang car be covered?

But Sun Haoyang's answer to him every time was: "It's early, it's not very good now, cover it slowly." ”

Wang Yue can still bear it for a week or two, but after a month or two, Wang Yue can no longer bear it.

Wang Yue learned a lot of technical analysis knowledge of stock trading from the Internet, and then he pondered to do T+0.

The rising pattern of Pujiang Automobile is very regular, and it is called flowing water in technical analysis. It is not difficult for this kind of stock to do T+0, as long as you look at several major technical indicators such as moving averages and Bollinger Bands.

To put it simply, when the stock price of Pujiang Automobile rises sharply and the stock price punctures the upper Bollinger Bands, it is technically called overbought, and there is a short-term pullback trend, so it is sold at a high level.

Then, when the stock price falls back to near the 5-day moving average, the selling pressure is released, and then buy back.

At first, Wang Yue was only trying to take one-tenth of the position, but after he successfully carried out several operations, he gradually became bolder.

Next, he further expanded the position of T to one-third of the position, half position, cross position, and then ...... Naturally, there is no then.

The stock trend in the bull market is unreasonable, and Sun Haoyang has a deep understanding of this through so many years of observation.

He has analyzed the results of several years of simulated stock trading, that is, when the stock rises, the best operation strategy is to hold on. No matter how obvious and attractive the technical pattern is, ignore it and remain unmoved no matter what happens.

Only in this way will it be possible to ride the big black horse in the big bull market without being shaken down by it.

Wang Yue's operation further verifies this truth.

When he first tried to do T, he did it right a few times, and as a result, the total cost of holding shares was reduced a lot. He also once boasted to Sun Haoyang complacently, saying that his shareholding cost was already lower than Sun Haoyang's.

However, in a T operation, Wang Yue originally judged that the stock price of Pujiang Automobile had broken through the upper Bollinger Bands, and combined with the analysis of some other technical indicators, it was an obvious overbought pattern, so he temporarily sold all Pujiang Automobiles, and then wanted to wait for its stock price to pull back before buying.

But who would have thought that the expected pullback did not wait, but waited for another bald long white line that directly sealed the daily limit. At this time, Wang Yue realized that he had been fooled, but the stock price of Pujiang Automobile had been blocked by a huge amount, and it was too late for him to regret it at this time.

Early the next morning, Pujiang Automobile continued to drive high and high, completely announcing that Wang Yue had stepped into the air.

This situation is one of the most common mistakes made by ordinary short-term investors in a bull market, and it is called "t flying" in stock trading terms.

Pujiang Automobile could no longer be bought, so Wang Yue had to turn to chasing other hot stocks.

During this period, he also bought stocks that performed well later, but with Wang Yue's current operation and mentality, he must not be able to hold it. As a result, after working hard for a long time, I can only make a little money, and in the end, I didn't even outperform the broader market index.

Fortunately, this is in a big bull market, if it is replaced by the previous bear market, this operation will definitely lose money.

At the same time, Sun Haoyang didn't move with the Pujiang car, but instead obtained extremely high profits.

Comparing the two, Wang Yue couldn't help but feel a little frustrated, and finally had to admit that Sun Haoyang's methods were more clever in stock speculation.

So Wang Yue had no choice but to ask Sun Haoyang for advice: "The accuracy of my short-term technical analysis is not low, but why is it not as high as the return of a stock that you hold?" Is it because I'm unlucky? ”

Sun Haoyang smiled and asked, "How accurate is your short-term technical analysis?" ”

Wang Yue thought for a while and said: "On average, three out of four times are accurate, with a 75% success rate." ”

Sun Haoyang nodded: "This accuracy rate is not bad for novices." But unless you get it up to 90% accuracy, there's still no future. ”

Wang Yue's eyes widened and said, "90%? How is that possible! Unless it's a stock god, whose technical analysis can achieve 90% accuracy? ”

"If you can't do that, then it's better not to use technical analysis."

"Why is that? A 75% accuracy rate is not low. ”

"You think 75% accuracy is not low, but it's just an illusion. I'll give you an example, and you'll know right away what you're doing wrong.

Suppose there are two investment projects, the success rate of project A is 75%, and the success rate of project B is 20%, if you are an investor, which one do you choose? ”

"Needless to say, of course it's A."

Sun Haoyang smiled and continued: "Once Project A is successful, it can make a profit of 5%, and if it fails, the principal will be returned.

Once project B is successful, it can make a profit of 50%, and if it fails, the principal will be returned.

After adding this condition, which do you choose? ”

Wang Yue had studied probability in college, and Sun Haoyang said that the topic belonged to the foundation of probability, and he immediately calculated the answer: "The expected rate of return of project A is [(1+5%)*75%+1*25%]-1=3.75%, which means that the expected rate of return of this scheme is 3.75%

The expected rate of return of project B is [(1+50%)*20%+1*80%]-1=10%, and the expected rate of return of plan B is 10%, so plan B should be selected. ”

"So you see, the success of a technical analysis method for a stock has nothing to do with the accuracy of this method.

In my example, the success rate of plan A is as high as 75%, but the expected rate of return in the end is not as good as that of plan B, which has a success rate of only 20%.

This is where the biggest drawback of ordinary technical analysis methods lies.

You usually only take into account the probability of a pullback after the overbought technical pattern of the stock, but do not take into account the potential loss of profit in case the T flies.

You use technical analysis to trade stocks, and you can succeed three times out of four, each time you can earn 5%, but the fourth failure may make you short, and therefore you will lose the opportunity to make 50%.

This is still in a bull market, and if it is in a bear market, a mistake in judgment can mean that your principal is cut in half. ”

Wang Yue thought for a while and retorted: "In a bear market, I can set a stop loss level, for example, if it falls by 10%, I will force it to close the position." ”

Sun Haoyang didn't answer positively, but asked an irrelevant question: "Have you ever played bungee jumping?" ”

Wang Yue shook his head: "I haven't played." ”

"Bungee jumping is exciting and absolutely safe, next time I'll invite you to play."

Wang Yue hurriedly waved his hand and said, "It's better to get rid of it, that thing is too scary, I don't dare to play it." Are you trying to tell me that the stock market is as scary as bungee jumping? ”

"The mentality when trading stocks is the same as bungee jumping. You know bungee jumping is a very safe sport, but you still don't dare to play it because you can't overcome the fear in your heart.

It's the same with stock trading, you obviously set a 10% stop loss, but when the stock price really falls, do you think you can really do it?

Stock operation is not only a competition of technical ability, but also a test of your mentality.

Take the Pujiang car you operated before as an example, a price limit will scare you at a loss, which fully shows that your psychological tolerance is actually vulnerable.

People who are really strong-minded, as long as they recognize that Pujiang Automobile will continue to rise in the future, even if they see it rising to the limit, they will be fearless to chase high and buy it.

If there is a situation similar to Pujiang Automobile in front of you in the future, do you dare to chase high and buy? ”

Wang Yue thought about it, shook his head and said, "I guess I still won't be able to do it." ”

"There are two kinds of people who make the most money in the bull market, one is a fool who doesn't know anything, and the other is a madman who is not afraid of anything. You're an ordinary person, so you can't make money with this mentality. ”

"So how do you make money in the stock market? Do you have to turn yourself into a madman? ”

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